The future of Australian property prices

[rryall]

That's cheap for inner city in the southern capitals. Actually, having a quick look at my own suburb, in the last few months the cheapest two bedder was $1.145m, most were around $1.3m. You'd be lucky to get a 2 bed apartment for $725k. I'm amazed that in places like Alexandria, a suburb you wouldn't have wanted to park your car on the street at night ten years ago, small 2 bed cottages are going for over $1.1m.

I thought it was expensive relative to the yield - $400 a week represents a before costs yield of 2.9%. With wages growth expected to go nowhere in future years you are banking on further capital growth - i.e. prices going even further away from fundamentals.

 

[rryall]

That seems a lot for a two brm house. I don't know Melbourne at all. What sort of suburb is Brunswick?
ie does the location constitute substantial relevance to the price?

When you feel miserable about house prices, have you considered living somewhere other than such an expensive capital city? Lots of much more affordable areas if your work situation can accommodate a move.

Thanks Julia. It's a very nice inner city suburb with lots of bars and cafes etc. Before anyone makes the comment of 1st home buyers wanting to live in these inner city suburbs I'm just merely commenting on the price relative to the yield.

I'm in the fortunate position of running my own business from home so I could essentially live anywhere. My girlfriend is currently based overseas so there are some considerations. I'd rather live overseas for an extended period than buy property at these inflated prices.

 

[trainspotter]

As predicted ... Lending Standards:-

The Greater Building Society has thrown in international and domestic holidays as well as a cruise on to several of their home loans to attract new customers.
This includes trips to Los Angeles, Fiji, the Gold Coast or a South Pacific Cruise depending on the size and type of loan signed by new customers.
The bank’s head of marketing Matt Hingston said they offered holiday deals as a bonus for customers to reward them while also trying to stand out in an extremely competitive mortgage market.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...rtgage-customers/story-fndban6l-1226912076570

Whats this ? Doctors getting treated favorably by banks? No LMI ??

Recent home loan discounting hit unprecedented levels with banks dropping as much as 1.4 per cent off advertised rates.
Doctors were also discovered to be getting deals others could not get by not being charged the hefty cost of lenders mortgage insurance despite having deposits of just 5 per cent and no savings history.

This is going to get interesting after the toe cutting budget tomorrow.

 

[Vixs]

Trainspotter the medico no LMI deals aren't new, they've been around for years and it's far from the first time they've been reported on.

Slightly less sweet deals are also around for law firm partners, CPAs and CFPs.

Surprise surprise that those with high incomes and lower risk profiles are treated better by banks

The lenders with the most high risk offerings, like Adelaide & Bendigo Bank's 95% LVR + Cap full LMI + a $20k credit card that can be used to pay settlement costs like stamp duty? They've been pulled.

The reason a non-major lender has to compete with gimmicks is because the offerings from the big banks and other major lenders are good for borrowers.

 

[sptrawler]

Trainspotter the medico no LMI deals aren't new, they've been around for years and it's far from the first time they've been reported on.

Slightly less sweet deals are also around for law firm partners, CPAs and CFPs.

Surprise surprise that those with high incomes and lower risk profiles are treated better by banks

The lenders with the most high risk offerings, like Adelaide & Bendigo Bank's 95% LVR + Cap full LMI + a $20k credit card that can be used to pay settlement costs like stamp duty? They've been pulled.

The reason a non-major lender has to compete with gimmicks is because the offerings from the big banks and other major lenders are good for borrowers.

At these low interest levels, it must be very difficult for the second line lenders to attract business. I suppose they may also have to pick up the higher risk borrowers.

 

[ftw129]

For those with a long term view..... The best time to buy property has and always will be, now.

Trying to time the property market is like trying to catch the Easter Bunny.

We may see another 20% upside before we see any reasonable pullback. Then, if prices retreat 30% from there it will be called a "crisis"!

The smart ones are taking advantage of these ultra low interest rates.

I've said this once and I'll say it again.

Our beautiful, young and underpopulated country is the envy of the world. We are rich in resources and live in a "nanny state" where even the slightest hint of some sort of property "crisis" will be heavily protected by our government and the banks.

Supporting property prices is in everyone's best interests.

Unlike our Asian neighbors we are raised with parents that allow their children too much freedom and they grow up not knowing the importance and the value of money.

Giving up the enormous drug habit (alcohol) that this country suffers from yet promotes, wasting $4-5 on coffee everyday (if not a couple of times a day), being stupid enough to still smoke cigarettes are all a massive drain on peoples income and would easily be enough to service an IP from a young age. I bought my 2 bedroom apartment in Toorak, (one of Australia's most affluent suburbs) when I was 23 and earning $35k per year. I'd saved since I was a child enough for the deposit earning minimum wage in all the jobs I worked in from the age of 14 and 9 months.

There should be a subject in school from very early on next to maths and English about money. Saving, investing, budgeting and planning for ones future.

 

[CanOz]

I've said this once and I'll say it again.

Our beautiful, young and underpopulated country is the envy of the world. We are rich in resources and live in a "nanny state" where even the slightest hint of some sort of property "crisis" will be heavily protected by our government and the banks.

Supporting property prices is in everyone's best interests.

Unlike our Asian neighbors we are raised with parents that allow their children too much freedom and they grow up not knowing the importance and the value of money.

Giving up the enormous drug habit (alcohol) that this country suffers from yet promotes, wasting $4-5 on coffee everyday (if not a couple of times a day), being stupid enough to still smoke cigarettes are all a massive drain on peoples income and would easily be enough to service an IP from a young age. I bought my 2 bedroom apartment in Toorak, (one of Australia's most affluent suburbs) when I was 23 and earning $35k per year. I'd saved since I was a child enough for the deposit earning minimum wage in all the jobs I worked in from the age of 14 and 9 months.

There should be a subject in school from very early on next to maths and English about money. Saving, investing, budgeting and planning for ones future.

+1 .... Agree!

Was laughing at the smokers I saw, rare as hens teeth....every time I saw one I'd nudge my wife and say look, rich man!

I wish I had got into property earlier as well, but there's no time like the present and agree that Australia's climate, culture and economy will continue to drive growth...there will be pockets of value better than others, markets within the market that are overlooked, but still value for those willing to put in the effort.

 

[medicowallet]

At least some middle class welfare will be removed from the picture. Next stop pensioners in 4 bedroom houses getting full pensions.

A couple external shocks and it could get interesting with the govt with less ammo than previously

House prices to go flat again is definitely a possibility

 

[prawn_86]

At least some middle class welfare will be removed from the picture. Next stop pensioners in 4 bedroom houses getting full pensions.

A couple external shocks and it could get interesting with the govt with less ammo than previously

House prices to go flat again is definitely a possibility

From the budget, I was thinking about the 6 month no access to Newstart for under 30's.

I know that people in that situation generally wouldn't be buying houses, but it may flow on to rents, or if someone loses their job then they may have to sell that negatively geared IP?

Bit of a long shot, but for younger people it just increases the risk of owning property (albeit only minor) imo

 

[Tink]

Melbourne Auction Results, if anyone is interested.

http://www.reiv.com.au/Property-Research

 

[Ken Oath]

Melbourne Auction Results, if anyone is interested.

http://www.reiv.com.au/Property-Research

Does anyone have any info on the amount of foreign investment going into the property market?

Maybe as auction sales percentage.

 

[sydboy007]

Does anyone have any info on the amount of foreign investment going into the property market?

Maybe as auction sales percentage.

FIRB have poor records and what they do have is very outdated. From what I've read it seems pretty easy to get approval for purchases that break the rules.

But don't worry, the RBA has just told us it's not an issue, much like the high price growth in Sydney and Melbourne isn't an issue.

Move along, nothing to see here.

I have an issue with so much foreign money getting into the established market. I can accept it going into creating new housing stock, but then they are tending to be competing with FHBs and beating them in a similar style to the NG investors. Seems we prefer a market built around speculation than providing shelter to families. If NAB is right then they are having a significant impact on the property market.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...plurge-on-houses/story-e6frg6nf-1226841536609

Foreigners spent twice as much buying established residential housing during 2012-13, when mining investment slipped 12.6 per cent.

New data from the Foreign Investment Review Board reveals that foreign purchases of established homes rose eightfold during the financial downturn.

Offshore buyers bought a record 5091 established homes worth $5.4 billion last financial year, compared with just 647 properties worth $810 million in 2009-10.

A further 4499 new apartments and homes worth $2.9bn were sold to foreigners off the plan last financial year - more than double the investment recorded three years earlier.

Nearly half the established home sales were in Melbourne and Sydney, where Asian buyers have been targeting properties close to the CBD and on Sydney’s north shore.

Chinese buyers poured $5.9bn into property investment last financial year, topping the list of foreign buyers.

Foreign investment in vacant land doubled last year to $1.4bn, for development and “land banking”.

National Australia Bank’s senior property economist, Robert De Iure, said foreigners purchased 11 per cent of new properties and 6.5 per cent of established homes last year. Investment had doubled in the past two years.

 

[Mrmagoo]

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...y-or-rent-a-home/story-fncq3era-1226907065854

Me me me me me I I I I me me me ... it's all about ME "I don't drive" and "It's convenient for me"

Owning property is not a right of this country .. it is a privilege. You actually have to get off your @rse and do something about it instead of whinging and whining. I bet she doesn't give up her $300 shoes and $500 dresses she would buy to look glitzy on a Saturday night out with the gurls !!

I'd rather have nice looking women all over the place than a few rich old buggers getting a little bit richer off property for something they did not even need to lift a finger to do.

Who knows, if more young women start dressing awesome and buying fewer houses it could be a win win for the Australian male. Nice look birds everywhere and cheap houses.

 

[Ken Oath]

I have an issue with so much foreign money getting into the established market. I can accept it going into creating new housing stock, but then they are tending to be competing with FHBs and beating them in a similar style to the NG investors. Seems we prefer a market built around speculation than providing shelter to families. If NAB is right then they are having a significant impact on the property market.

Thanks Sydboy. Foreign investment particularly from Asia certainly seems to be a trend that's gaining momentum. Doesn't seem that long ago our media was pushing the message hard to invest in American property. No prizes for guessing what the Chinese media are pushing.

The comment regarding a market built around speculation rather than providing shelter to families really struck home to me. Have we forgotten what housing is really about?

 

[sydboy007]

The comment regarding a market built around speculation rather than providing shelter to families really struck home to me. Have we forgotten what housing is really about?

I find in a sad reflection on our society that the family home is now an investment. It's viewed in a totally different manner to say 30+ years ago.

I think it's the marketising and financialising of all aspects of society.

The fact is we should have very affordable housing in this country. It SHOULD be a competitive advantage for us, yet we've somehow chosen to restrict supply, force massive upfront costs on new shelter construction, fueled it with unsustainable immigration levels - 500K in 13 months - and designed our tax system in a way to promote price growth speculation via socialising a lot of the losses and privatising the profits.

I'm hoping when the crash comes it causes a reboot on the way we see housing and it goes back to being shelter, not an asset.

 

[FxTrader]

The fact is we should have very affordable housing in this country. It SHOULD be a competitive advantage for us, yet we've somehow chosen to restrict supply, force massive upfront costs on new shelter construction, fueled it with unsustainable immigration levels - 500K in 13 months - and designed our tax system in a way to promote price growth speculation via socialising a lot of the losses and privatising the profits.

There is no real mystery here, local council and state planning policies along with tax incentives for investing in residential real estate, population trends, foreign ownership laws etc. all contribute to the ongoing inflation of the property price bubble here. It seems unstoppable, but there are warning signs emerging with the RBA taking notice. The fairly recent entrance of SMSFs leveraging into property and the impacts were noted in an article in the Age today...

Fears over SMSF property lending
A five-fold increase in borrowing to help fund a $40 billion splurge on property for self-managed super funds has prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia to warn about further increasing investor debt-load through more borrowing.

The nation's monetary mandarins warn the spending and borrowing binge is ''raising concerns'' about exposure to increased risks, such as another market crash wiping out property values, or interest rate rises creating repayment difficulties.

But the research used by the bank and other independent analysis is based on Australian Taxation Office returns that are at least 12 months old and miss recent boom market conditions that have pushed up prices and lending.

Claire Mackay, principal of Quantum Financial, argues that lending safeguards required by the bank appear to provide more protection to the lenders, typically the retail banks, than the borrowers, some of whom are young first-time buyers.

''Leveraged property investment is viable in an overall financial strategy that takes account of a person's other assets, ability to pay and capacity to adjust to a change in circumstances,'' Ms Mackay said.

Lenders' insistence on personal guarantees for fund investment loans limits their potential loss, but could propound problems for a borrower already facing liquidity problems or debt stress on a single asset.

The percentage increase in business property held by self-managed funds has increased 90 per cent and residential property 80 per cent in the four years to 2013-14, according to the latest ATO figures. By comparison, limited recourse lending arrangements have increased 460 per cent.

The massive increase in the value of SMSF investments to about $550 billion, or about one-third of the nation's super savings, means total investments in property has more than doubled from about $37 billion to $88 billion, according to Russel Chesler, a director of Market Vectors, an exchange-traded fund specialist with about $US22 billion in assets under management.

According to additional analysis by Quantum, based on ATO figures, there was a near five-fold increase in the value of limited recourse borrowing arrangements for SMSFs between 2009 and 2014.

That is five times the increase in exposure to listed shares and 14 times the increase to unlisted shares, the analysis reveals.

It also fails to fully take account of the real estate bull market in Sydney and Melbourne during the past 12 months.

More than 34,000 new funds are established each year and the average balance is more than $1 million.

The schemes, which are jointly regulated by the Tax Office and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, have generally been considered compliant and providing returns comparable to managed funds.

Regulators are warning of a more ''aggressive and assertive'' approach to loans and large commission payments to advisers for recommending property, which are typically off-the-plan developments.

The Reserve Bank, in its submission to the Financial System Inquiry, adds: ''Property investment by SMSFs is a new source of demand that could potentially exacerbate the property price cycle.''

http://www.smh.com.au/business/fears-over-smsf-property-lending-20140606-39oha.html#ixzz342wAKVLQ

 

[sydboy007]

NSW Govt has just provided some extra support to overpriced housing.

FHBs can now get their 15K grant for newly constructed housing up to 750K, increased from 650K.

Not sure it's a good idea to be encouraging FHBs to be entering the market for shelter at those levels, but hey the housing ponzi has to be kept inflated at all costs.

 

[DB008]

NSW Govt has just provided some extra support to overpriced housing.

FHBs can now get their 15K grant for newly constructed housing up to 750K, increased from 650K.

Not sure it's a good idea to be encouraging FHBs to be entering the market for shelter at those levels, but hey the housing ponzi has to be kept inflated at all costs.

So what is the solution then SYD?

 

[sydboy007]

So what is the solution then SYD?

Increase supply rather than demand.

Get rid of the constipated housing supply issues in all the capital cities. Stop forcing new housing to pay upfront for all infrastructure at usually gold plated levels.

Rethink urban growth boundaries as all they do is increase the value of land within them then force people to migrate way out past the boundary.

Bring in land taxes for all commercial and residential zoned land so that infrastructure an be semi self funding since some of the uplift in land values will be captured by the tax and can be recycled into further infrastructure.

I'd be very concerned about a FHB that feels they can't get into the market under $650K. May not be in the best location or the largest property, but getting a newly constructed property under that value shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Do you see a problem with the current market for shelter? Do you have any suggestions on how we can get back to an affordable housing level of roughly 3 times the average wage.

• In 1991 the median house price was five times the average income. In 2011 it is seven times the average income and can only be worse today.
• The average first home loan has gone from three times the average annual income in 1996 to six times the average annual income in 2010. Once again this figure would be worse today.
• 6 times the average wage is nearly 10 times the median wage ie 50% of the population would find the average home loan is over 10 times their annual income
• One in four Australians aged between 24 and 35 now live with their parents. This has been increasing over the last 20 years.
• Every year the Federal Government gives out $8 billion in tax breaks to property investors but we still have high rents and low vacancy rates.

From back in 2010: http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/couples-work-twice-as-long-for-a-house/story-e6frfmd0-1225837806405#

AUSTRALIANS have to work almost three times harder to pay off the average family home than they did 50 years ago.

Figures compiled by CommSec for The Sunday Telegraph reveal home buyers on the average income now have to work for 19,374 hours to buy the average Australian house with the average mortgage.
Based on an eight-hour day and a five-day working week, that equates to about 10 years of work. In reality, it takes much longer to own a home, because wages must pay for all living expenses, not just housing.
In 1960, it took homebuyers just 7500 hours to pay off the average mortgage.

 

[trainspotter]

AUSTRALIANS have to work almost three times harder to pay off the average family home than they did 50 years ago.

Figures compiled by CommSec for The Sunday Telegraph reveal home buyers on the average income now have to work for 19,374 hours to buy the average Australian house with the average mortgage.
Based on an eight-hour day and a five-day working week, that equates to about 10 years of work. In reality, it takes much longer to own a home, because wages must pay for all living expenses, not just housing.
In 1960, it took homebuyers just 7500 hours to pay off the average mortgage.

What a load of FAFF !! In the 1950s the average size of a new house was 115 square metres. By 1985 it had grown to 170 square metres, and in the last 15 years it has shot up to 221 square metres. As a result, the amount of space for each occupant in a new house has more than doubled since the early 1970's.

Maybe the rampant consumerism as well as the "Keeping up with the Jones's" has something to do with this eh? Statistics can be skewiffed to entail whatever outcomes the propaganda machine wants you to chow down on.

It is also not three times HARDER ... it is three times LONGER

Previously the lifestyles of the rich were seen to be out of reach of ordinary people. But rising incomes and television images have meant that many average families now aspire to luxury consumption goods previously reserved for the wealthiest in society. There is a ‘relentless ratcheting up of standards’ and increasing pressure to consume at higher and higher levels.

The effect has been dubbed ‘affluenza’, the ‘bloated, sluggish and unfulfilled feeling that results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses’ or, more seriously, as an unhealthy relationship with money. While addictions to alcohol, gambling and eating are widely accepted as pathological, the spread of affluenza suggests that consumption in general has taken on a pathological character. Consumption behaviour has become central to the construction of personal identity and lack of access to this activity would cause severe distress to many.

http://www.tai.org.au/documents/dp_fulltext/DP49.pdf