The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

If you buy a bar of gold - then it's yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.


Selling gold that you are holding is a stupid endeavour; especially if it triples in value (ie. imminent financial collapse).

If you buy a house - then its yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.

Selling houses that have tripled in value ...... now there is a concept !!

SQUUUUAAAAAAARK ...... Polly want a cracker !!

 

[numbercruncher]

Why is it that the pro-Australian property crowd are disproportionately more agressive in their tone or debate style than those bearish on Australian property ?

 

[Ves]

Why post the gold chart with a log scale, but not the housing price?

 

[trainspotter]

Why is it that the pro-Australian property crowd are disproportionately more agressive in their tone or debate style than those bearish on Australian property ?

Try reading some of SCM's posts first and the waters will become clear for you.

So I am pro by saying they are going to deflate 5% nationally over the 8 capital city average ? *GOSH*

I especially liked the one where he reckoned that there was "too much economics" for me to handle or what about this little gem " Business and people in WA are not innovative, hard working or competitive in any particularly special way."

Which is why WA has the lowest unemployment rate in Australia at 3.8%

http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3502563.htm

YEAH RIGHT !!!!!!

 

[Starcraftmazter]

So what are you going to do with it when it all comes crashing down?

Sell my gold for whatever new gold and silver backed currency will rise to take place of fiat currency.

Ummmmmm it would appear you have tripped over your own words yet again oh wise and ancient one.

46% of exports and 14.6% of GDP attributed to WA is a how did you write this? "that means that WA - even when taken as an individual state, provides a disproportionately small representation of the Australian economy"

Yes, because it has a disproportionately small amount of people.

If WA takes it's resources and sells them to foreign countries to be used in foreign economies, and pays the proceeds of the sales to foreign shareholders, while employing imported foreign labour - then it doesn't really benefit the country does it? Doesn't matter what it's contribution to the magical GDP or trade balance if Australians in general do not benefit - does it?

Most Australians do not live in the WA. Most Australians have to put up with the high AUD and most Australians are having a hard time keeping their jobs. That is the reality for the Australian economy.

FACT : making WA the nation's fourth most productive state with a GSP per capita of $82,653 !!!! LOLOL

Well not really. Once the commodity bubble bursts that will plummet. It's not really productive - it's just riding a bubble. Nothing of value is really produced in WA. Once the resources are gone, WA is screwed.

P.S. Property prices to continue to slowly deflate over the next year across the 8 capital city average of 5% JMHO

Keep dreaming. Maybe you'll dream up a coherent argument one day.

If you buy a house - then its yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.

Given that average property is priced at 7-9 times average income, buying outright is a luxury not affordable for the vast, overwhelming majority.

Selling houses that have tripled in value ...... now there is a concept !!

Houses do not ever rise in value.

Why is it that the pro-Australian property crowd are disproportionately more agressive in their tone or debate style than those bearish on Australian property ?

Because they are very threatened that people are waking up to the housing scam.

Why post the gold chart with a log scale, but not the housing price?

Mostly because I don't have a log chart of a real house price comparison between Australia and the US. I have never come across one either.

Also because the charts show the nominal value of gold and the real value of housing. The real value of housing is never ever meant to rise - and when it does, it will come down.

The real value of gold is however presently undetermined due to massive manipulation, both historical and current. One obvious fact however is that gold is significantly undervalued at present prices.

 

[wayneL]

Oh Brother!

 

[trainspotter]

UPDATE ! Majority of gold is mined in WA.

HEADLINES ! Miners employ 8% of jobs in OZ and not 2% as claimed by SCM

MYTH ! Being a software engineer with no experience in property or shares makes you smarter than anyone else with an opinion or better yet with EXPERIENCE.

Goodnight SCM .... don't let the gold bug bite.

I really liked this one from you tonight "Houses do not ever rise in value." Some of your best work yet SCM. Keep it up you are doing just fine.

 

[Glen48]

This should get things boiling:

The financial crisis in Greece is reaching an explosive tipping point, with the youth unemployment rate now exceeding a startling 50 percent and the government itself announcing it will be forced to stop paying salaries and pensions by June:

"We will be in wild bankruptcy, out-of-control bankruptcy," said Theodoros Pangalos, the deputy prime minister of Greece. "The state will not be able to pay salaries and pensions. We have got until June before we run out of money."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035858_Greece_bankruptcy_California.html#ixzz1uqOx9vK9

 

[numbercruncher]

I wasnt singleing you out trainspotter - just an observation ...

 

[Starcraftmazter]

UPDATE ! Majority of gold is mined in WA.

Relevance?

HEADLINES ! Miners employ 8% of jobs in OZ and not 2% as claimed by SCM

Actually it's less than 2%. Feel free to cite your source....that is if you have one.

1.764690389% of the employed workforce as of 2011 according to government figures.

MYTH ! Being a software engineer with no experience in property or shares makes you smarter than anyone else with an opinion or better yet with EXPERIENCE.

An understanding of economics is much much more important when trying to forecast property prices - rather than so called "experience" flogging them off during the biggest bubble in Australian history.

 

[numbercruncher]

HEADLINES ! Miners employ 8% of jobs in OZ and not 2% as claimed by SCM

Can you source us your 8pc thang, think you plucked that from thin air ...?

 

[numbercruncher]

Employing just 179,400 Australians, mining is outranked by all but one of the 19 industry groupings used by the Bureau of Statistics. Even ''arts and recreation'', employing 193,400 people, is a greater provider of jobs.
Australia's top employer, health and aged care now provides jobs to 1.2 million Australians, retail remains in second place, employing 1.18 million and construction moves into third place employing a record 1 million workers.
Manufacturing continues to shrink, employing a record-low 972,000 in May - just 8 per cent of the workforce.
Mining employs 1.6 per cent nationwide.
Only in Western Australia is mining a significant employer, providing 6 per cent of that state's jobs. In NSW it employs less than 1 per cent, in Victoria less than 0.5 per cent.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/mines-jobs-peak-but-still-just-16-20100617-yjsi.html

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Whats the bet your precious gold is underwater too, whats your cost base so far? not that it matters its not like your swinging a line as big as you house or anything gold could probably triple and you and scm would still be neither here nor there.

Completely off topic but.....

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks.

 

[moXJO]

Completely off topic but.....

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks.

Plenty of those tungsten filled gold bars at the moment floating around they could buy.

Actually it's less than 2%. Feel free to cite your source....that is if you have one.

Does that include the spin off industries that are directly linked servicing the mining industry that wouldn't be there otherwise?

 

[trainspotter]

Can you source us your 8pc thang, think you plucked that from thin air ...?

Why do I even bother posting links if you are not going to follow them?

The Reserve Bank has continued its efforts to convince more Australians that the mining boom is benefiting the whole country. Speaking in Melbourne, the bank's deputy governor Philip Lowe said mining and related industries now made up around 16 or 17 per cent of the economy and 8 per cent of jobs.

Mining is also growing at a staggering 12 per cent a year, compared to around 1 per cent for the rest of the economy

Post #8304 http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3502563.htm Monday May 14th and NOT ABS figures from last year !!!!!!!! There has been a significant growth spurt in the mining sector of late.

I just love the goading that SCM spews forth and everyone believes it as gospel. DYOR !!

 

[numbercruncher]

There was no link where I quoted you saying 8pc ....

Ok so comparing both these figures - its saying Mining emplys 8x as many (as a percentage) as it did a year ago ....

Something is a bit fishy -

Rest of economy is Growing 1pc a year - how bad is that -

As we have established your house in the Pilbara goes up in price rest of Nation keeps collapsing - what a skewered economy huh ....

-----

Did some more reading from that same meeting of Rob Lowes - he said Mining related employment was at 8pc - not Miners employ 8pc as you are incorrectly spreading. A whole heap of that would be infrastructure construction - which one would think will vanish once they complete these big projects ?

Rob Lowe said 2.75pc of teh workforce is employed Directly -

Anyway this is a property thread not Australian mining facts thread ....

 

[againsthegrain]

This is amazing almost same tactics as those that report clearance rates

TS got a shock changing those used light globes from the socket? bzzz the nutty professor

 

[trainspotter]

There was no link where I quoted you saying 8pc ....

Anyway this is a property thread not Australian mining facts thread ....

Go and read post #8304 again and look at the link I posted there. That would be the same one that refers to 8% of people being employed in mining.

SCM skewiffed this thread to state that mining has ruined the economy of the Eastern states by foreign banks loaning money to local banks to lend/leverage money into housing thusly effectively rootng their economy by having fire sales of property as they track their investments.

It's all about comprehension right?

 

[trainspotter]

This is amazing almost same tactics as those that report clearance rates

TS got a shock changing those used light globes from the socket? bzzz the nutty professor

Once again you fail to understand what I was driving at. It was about low capital ventures that have high turnover and extremely low overheads. The light globe business was an example. It was also about the velocity of money in the economy. I asked if anyone else knew of any other low cost capital ventures !! LOLOL

And you lock onto one small fragment and completely miss the point. LOLOL

 

[Klogg]

http://www.theage.com.au/national/mines-jobs-peak-but-still-just-16-20100617-yjsi.html

Does that include mining services?