The future of Australian property prices

[Macquack]

I net nearly 3k a week here in regional NZ, most of my clients are attractive ladies who give me coffee and cake as I work and I get to go home every night to my attractive lady.

What is it that you actually do Wayne?

 

[VeryGreen]

Hello everyone.

I don't really have an opinion re topic. I joined this site to learn but discussions like this always interest me. I've got two properties in Perth and its great to hear everyone’s opinion. Lots of variation.

I just wanted to chime in on the wages discussion for fifo workers to give you some idea of what an average wage looks like. Personally, I'm on an 8/6 7/7 roster. This means I work 15 x 12hour shifts a month and my pay packet after tax stands at $7606.50 for those 15 shifts

The package is $142,791 a year which includes super. 4 weeks holiday a year and 10 days 'personal leave". You get more bang for your buck with the holidays. If I take my 8 day shift off, I actually get 20 days off work (6+8+6). We also get a quarterly bonus, taken as cash or shares. If shares they will also match it so you get double. I believe "unskilled" workers, those with out a trade are on about $132,000 package and the same bonus.

Being ex-BHP I can say that their last offer to me as I walked out the door was $138,000 package 8/6-7/7

About 6 years ago I remember my pay being around $5-6k in the bank a month for 2/1.
Main incentive for taking that job was exactly double my Perth wage, and 1/3rd the living costs as they kept me fed and watered for 2 out of 3 weeks. I don't drink and left my wallet at home. Saved a fortune!!

My father who is in a more specialized role (electrical trade based) is on $216,000 package working for a Chinese gov backed steel company who are setting up over here. (3weeks on/1week off)

So that's a little insight as to what the west has to offer currently. Will it stay like this? I don't know. All I know is I love working less than half the year and being able to eat steak, fish, what ever every night I'm at work (the missus reins me in at home). Deserts are usually awesome too. The Qantas frequent flyer's have served me well over the years as well. So many flights on 8/6 roster. Many of the companies have corporate deals too. Like any BHP employee can get 10% discount on their Telstra bill. Car rentals, salary sacrifice plans, lease/purchase plans, deals with banks etc.

I know the sun is not going to shine forever which is why I've joined this site. I am trying to decide where is the best place for my money, and learn a bit of financial management tips.

I am sure there are people out there earning a lot more than my father and I but for two busted ass tradesmen its happy days.

 

[hangseng]

RIO also going to bring out the cost cuting axe -



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/miner-rio-tinto-may-scrap-local-projects/story-fn7j19iv-1226352498702


So still a big Iron Ore demand going forward - but does this one segment of the economy translate to a booming or even growing realestate market , I dont think so ......

Plenty of eager vendors looking to dump RE in WA just as there is everywhere ....

But yes I can see how your Mcmansion five minutes drive from your mine of choice in the Pilbara could still be growing in Value

A little wake up call for those that cannot or will not see beyond their own backyard.

From the latest "Eureka Report"

"WA, according to CommSec, is leading Australia in five out of eight criteria: overall economic growth, retail trade, equipment investment, construction and population growth. WA is also equal with the Northern Territory on employment creation.

WA lags on housing finance and dwelling starts, but when other factors are considered that could simply be a timing issue, because it is hard to image an economy growing rapidly without housing joining in at some stage.

CommSec’s view of the difference between WA and the rest of the country was supported by the latest Deloitte Access Economics assessment of Australia.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson described the situation as “less welcome news”, but confirmed that “the two-speed split in Australia’s economy is widening”.
“WA growth remains dominated by a project investment pipeline of simple awe inspiring dimensions,” he said."

The very limited views displayed here on this thread by some displays how little they know of what is really going on. For others such as me that are in the midst of this, it offers opportunities of "awe inspiring dimensions."

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Good post VG - make hay while the sun shines!

And as with hay, make sure you put it somewhere or cover it so it doesn't get ruined should the weather turn sour.

It's probably much more important to preserve your hard-earned ATM than find a get rich quick scheme.

The wrenching Storm Financial Group thread keeps ringing in my ears.

And yes, I'm learning a huge amount from ASF too!

 

[Julia]

Good post VG - make hay while the sun shines!

+1. Thanks, Very Green. Interesting post. Good luck for the future.

 

[Dowdy]

I am trying to decide where is the best place for my money,

My pocket, thanks!

 

[VeryGreen]

Good post VG - make hay while the sun shines!

And as with hay, make sure you put it somewhere or cover it so it doesn't get ruined should the weather turn sour.

It's probably much more important to preserve your hard-earned ATM than find a get rich quick scheme.

The wrenching Storm Financial Group thread keeps ringing in my ears.

And yes, I'm learning a huge amount from ASF too!

Thanks StumpyPhantom!

I actually ended up here because of a get rich quick scheme. Someone I consider to be quite smart was telling me about 6% per month returns when renting shares with options... I thought it sounded too good to be true and started reading the internet. Found heaps of positive discussions on it. Then found ASF... Turns out the positive discussions are all posts by the creators. They tried one post here and the admins pointed out that the person claiming to have no affiliation had a username that was the real name of someone on the said companies web site! Not only were they dishonest, but not very wise either...

 

[VeryGreen]

Dowdy your pockets have holes in them, I wont fall for that trick a 4th time...

 

[StumpyPhantom]

Thanks StumpyPhantom!

I actually ended up here because of a get rich quick scheme. Someone I consider to be quite smart was telling me about 6% per month returns when renting shares with options... I thought it sounded too good to be true and started reading the internet. Found heaps of positive discussions on it. Then found ASF... Turns out the positive discussions are all posts by the creators. They tried one post here and the admins pointed out that the person claiming to have no affiliation had a username that was the real name of someone on the said companies web site! Not only were they dishonest, but not very wise either...

No worries - the way I look at it at the moment, compare the savings you can make on your turbo-charged job with your normal savings.

If you can save $10k in a normal year, and $50k per year on this job, then you're gaining 5 years on your working life, year on year. So there's no need to get rich quick on that because in your normal job you wouldn't even have earned it yet.

So just look after it - and you're ahead!

 

[numbercruncher]

A little wake up call for those that cannot or will not see beyond their own backyard.

From the latest "Eureka Report"

"WA, according to CommSec, is leading Australia in five out of eight criteria: overall economic growth, retail trade, equipment investment, construction and population growth. WA is also equal with the Northern Territory on employment creation.

WA lags on housing finance and dwelling starts, but when other factors are considered that could simply be a timing issue, because it is hard to image an economy growing rapidly without housing joining in at some stage.

CommSec’s view of the difference between WA and the rest of the country was supported by the latest Deloitte Access Economics assessment of Australia.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson described the situation as “less welcome news”, but confirmed that “the two-speed split in Australia’s economy is widening”.
“WA growth remains dominated by a project investment pipeline of simple awe inspiring dimensions,” he said."

The very limited views displayed here on this thread by some displays how little they know of what is really going on. For others such as me that are in the midst of this, it offers opportunities of "awe inspiring dimensions."

I dont think me or anyone is denying the projects that are going on around the Place or in the Pilbara or any specific spot - but ongoing demand for iron ore or specific booming areas of the economy arnt translating into a booming property market -

The figures show property prices down virtually everywhere .....

So you can tell us about the fortunes of WA a million times , it just doesnt change whats going on across realestate world ....

Its wonderful that we still have some booming mining and other resources , because without them as a nation we would be rite royally rooted ....

 

[Starcraftmazter]

maybe you could be so kind as to show us how you make money in the markets (please dont say your still putting it all under your mattress cause you dont trust the greedy banks....on second thaughts just show us how to make that special uminium foil hat you use to protect yourself.

What do you mean by show? What am I some sort of a market-money making teacher? As for putting things under the old mattress, gold is always a prime candidate for this.

Ok wasn't expecting that. Bad news for Doomers.

10,000 full-time jobs lost actually. Bad news for everyone, including the economy.

Iron ore continues to do extremely well

Ahem.

I never stated any such thing. People here are talking like the world is ending as there is no work in the East and it's off to Domino's part time for crying out loud. As if the ONLY world revolves around Sydney and Melbourne drinking cappucino's and looking at their own reflection out of the tinted office window.

Well news flash, outside your "perceived" real world they is a load going on. So much so the govt want to tax the crap out of WA state revenues to prop up your failing economies. Yes yes....blah blah the East propped up WA for a long time so now it's payback time....yawn!

Mining employes barely anyone - just 2% of the population, and even they are about to be replaced by 100% computer operated equipment.

Sydney and Melbourne combined have over half of the urban population in the country - if people can't find jobs in those cities it is a little bit of a problem.

So according to the east gurus's the world is ending and property is finished and the resources industry is in a bubble....oh dear what a pile of uninformed cods!

You have no argument, no figures, no data, no substance - and yet you have the nerve to call others uninformed cods?

How about you go back to your drawing board and try to come up with a coherent argument - go on, I dare you.

Look out your window into your own backyard...there lies the problem. It certainly isn't a problem in WA.

You wouldn't know a problem if one kicked you in the balls.

 

[hangseng]

I dont think me or anyone is denying the projects that are going on around the Place or in the Pilbara or any specific spot - but ongoing demand for iron ore or specific booming areas of the economy arnt translating into a booming property market -

The figures show property prices down virtually everywhere .....

So you can tell us about the fortunes of WA a million times , it just doesnt change whats going on across realestate world ....

Its wonderful that we still have some booming mining and other resources , because without them as a nation we would be rite royally rooted ....

No arguments on the last sentence, thats why the govt is now going to rape the resources industry to prop up the failing states, Vic and NSW. Those two clearly displaying having the largest population doesn't translate into economical success, they are both basket cases. So the great minds, at least they think they are, of the "business hubs" are also not demonstrating how clever they are. WA QLD NT and to a lesser extent SA are leading the way.

However the point that completely went to the keeper with you is that it hasn't yet happened. As I alluded to before it is about to happen. Iron ore prices have b'all to do with it. It will be the massive influx of workers coming into the state for project development that will put pressure on property. If not with prices, definitely with rental returns, that has already started to show in the last 10 months.


So keep those blinkers on lol...we will keep doing what we do best, make money...TRUCK and SHIP LOADS of it!

 

[im sparticus]

Lol gold is that the best you can do its down more in the last few week than property has been in 12 months and hasnt yeilded a cent since the begining of time once again your trading the past. But my guess is you dont have a substancial amount of anything.

 

[hangseng]

What do you mean by show? What am I some sort of a market-money making teacher? As for putting things under the old mattress, gold is always a prime candidate for this.



10,000 full-time jobs lost actually. Bad news for everyone, including the economy.



Ahem.

Mining employes barely anyone - just 2% of the population, and even they are about to be replaced by 100% computer operated equipment.

Sydney and Melbourne combined have over half of the urban population in the country - if people can't find jobs in those cities it is a little bit of a problem.



You have no argument, no figures, no data, no substance - and yet you have the nerve to call others uninformed cods?

How about you go back to your drawing board and try to come up with a coherent argument - go on, I dare you.



You wouldn't know a problem if one kicked you in the balls.

Your a wonderful type aren't you...

I believe you may fit the description in the first paragraph of my last post.

Projects dear person, mining and construction projects coming online that will impact significantly on WA in particular. I directed the uninformed to the Eureka report, worth a read.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Projects dear person, mining and construction projects coming online that will impact significantly on WA in particular. I directed the uninformed to the Eureka report, worth a read.

I'm unsure if you're familiar with Australian geography and demographics or not; but here's something which might be a revelation for you:

1. Western Australia is one of six states and two territories in the Commonwealth of Australia
2. Western Australia has less than 10% of the nation's total population


Oh - and just in case you aren't good with maths, that means that WA - even when taken as an individual state, provides a disproportionately small representation of the Australian economy.

 

[hangseng]

I'm unsure if you're familiar with Australian geography and demographics or not; but here's something which might be a revelation for you:

1. Western Australia is one of six states and two territories in the Commonwealth of Australia
2. Western Australia has less than 10% of the nation's total population


Oh - and just in case you aren't good with maths, that means that WA - even when taken as an individual state, provides a disproportionately small representation of the Australian economy.

Correct genius, now work out why that "less than 10% of the nation's total population" is propping up the the two largest populations of the nation that are basically stuffed. I refer you to the poster that expressed it wonderfully without mining the nation would be "right royally rooted".

To the other poster, rents have risen in my areas of interest in Perth by over 10% and continuing. Currently forecast to rise around 10-15% more over this year. Why would that be now I wonder?...

 

[wayneL]

What is it that you actually do Wayne?

Macquack I'm a farrier i.e. one who shoes horses.

 

[wayneL]

I just wanted to chime in on the wages discussion for fifo workers to give you some idea of what an average wage looks like....

Cheers VG that's more like what I thought was on offer.

I have a friend who captains one those tenders that service offshore oil rigs. Actual work is about 2 hours a day or less... $5k a week.

 

[numbercruncher]

Correct genius, now work out why that "less than 10% of the nation's total population" is propping up the the two largest populations of the nation that are basically stuffed. I refer you to the poster that expressed it wonderfully without mining the nation would be "right royally rooted".

To the other poster, rents have risen in my areas of interest in Perth by over 10% and continuing. Currently forecast to rise around 10-15% more over this year. Why would that be now I wonder?...

Demand because people would much rather lose a few measly dollars in rent than 10's of Thousands as property continues to slump ?

The bad news for Perth's real estate market continues with house prices dropping 1.9 per cent in the three months leading to February, according to the latest RP Data figures.

Perth was the second-worst performing state in the country, with only flood-hit Brisbane at 3.3 per cent producing a steeper drop.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/perth-house-prices-down-in-difficult-market-20110331-1ckfs.html

The next quarters results will reflect much of the same Id imagine .....

Im not denying that you are could be getting a decent yield on your property portfolio - you just havnt convinced me of any kind of boom in RE no matter how dismissive of other peoples opinion you are

 

[Uncle Festivus]

A little wake up call for those that cannot or will not see beyond their own backyard.

From the latest "Eureka Report"

"WA, according to CommSec, is leading Australia in five out of eight criteria: overall economic growth, retail trade, equipment investment, construction and population growth. WA is also equal with the Northern Territory on employment creation.

WA lags on housing finance and dwelling starts, but when other factors are considered that could simply be a timing issue, because it is hard to image an economy growing rapidly without housing joining in at some stage.

CommSec’s view of the difference between WA and the rest of the country was supported by the latest Deloitte Access Economics assessment of Australia.
Deloitte partner Chris Richardson described the situation as “less welcome news”, but confirmed that “the two-speed split in Australia’s economy is widening”.
“WA growth remains dominated by a project investment pipeline of simple awe inspiring dimensions,” he said."

The very limited views displayed here on this thread by some displays how little they know of what is really going on. For others such as me that are in the midst of this, it offers opportunities of "awe inspiring dimensions."

That's a relief - economists are never wrong?

However the point that completely went to the keeper with you is that it hasn't yet happened. As I alluded to before it is about to happen. Iron ore prices have b'all to do with it. It will be the massive influx of workers coming into the state for project development that will put pressure on property. If not with prices, definitely with rental returns, that has already started to show in the last 10 months.


So keep those blinkers on lol...we will keep doing what we do best, make money...TRUCK and SHIP LOADS of it!

Only takes a stroke of the pen from Kloppers or Albanese and they're gone.......

Prices have everything to do with it - supply & demand still rules. There is plenty of supply already, the demand is the problem.......