The future of Australian property prices

[Starcraftmazter]

Correct genius, now work out why that "less than 10% of the nation's total population" is propping up the the two largest populations of the nation that are basically stuffed.

They are stuffed in no small part by the mining boom centred around WA, and I don't really see it "propping up" anyone - just making everything worse. Hell, at this point making mining activities illegal would probably be good for the Australian economy.

I refer you to the poster that expressed it wonderfully without mining the nation would be "right royally rooted".

And better off for it.

To the other poster, rents have risen in my areas of interest in Perth by over 10% and continuing. Currently forecast to rise around 10-15% more over this year. Why would that be now I wonder?...

Because most economic forecasters are idiots. Just take BIS and their ridiculous forecasts on Australian property values last year (turned out to be utterly deluded and false).

 

[trainspotter]

They are stuffed in no small part by the mining boom centred around WA, and I don't really see it "propping up" anyone - just making everything worse. Hell, at this point making mining activities illegal would probably be good for the Australian economy.

Ummmmmmmm ...... please explain how the mining boom has stuffed the Eastern States economies?

Making mining illegal is good for the Australian economy?? But, but, but what will the Red Queen do then? How will she fill the black hole in the Budget without the MRRT ??

Are you really some kind of an antiestablishmentarianism proactivist?

Is mining good for property prices ???? OHHHHHHHHH The banality of it all !!

 

[trainspotter]

Macquack I'm a farrier i.e. one who shoes horses.

And a very good one at that if the ladies are bringing you cups of tea and cake.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Ummmmmmmm ...... please explain how the mining boom has stuffed the Eastern States economies?

By providing money to leverage and borrow from foreign banks to speculate on property.


Home sales surge, rentals fall (and rents are not rising!)
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/homes-for-sale-surge-rentals-fall/

This proves people are taking their "investment" properties off the rental market and beginning to panic sell. They will certainly be shocked to find out how much money they lost!

 

[trainspotter]

By providing money to leverage and borrow from foreign banks to speculate on property.


Home sales surge, rentals fall (and rents are not rising!)
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/homes-for-sale-surge-rentals-fall/

This proves people are taking their "investment" properties off the rental market and beginning to panic sell. They will certainly be shocked to find out how much money they lost!

Sooooooooooo according to your theory the whole economy in the Eastern States is based on home sales?

What about tourism? No wait ....... the high Aussie peso killed that one off.

What about manufacturing? No wait ...... repetitive Guvmints has driven them offshore.

What about bananas? No wait ...... Cyclone Larry took care of that.

What do the Eastern States produce again? No wait ....... WA has taken care of that for them.

Foreign banks? What foreign banks? ANZ? NAB? WESTPAC or COMMONWEALTH?

What about this little gem then from Wikipedia ?

In 2011, Western Australia provided 46% of Australia's exports. In 2010-11, Western Australia’s gross state product was A$193 billion (14.6% of Australia's GDP), making it the nation's fourth most productive state with a GSP per capita of $82,653 (compared with the national average of $57,925).

If Western Australia were a separate country, it would be among the Top 50 economies in the world by GDP.

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH ......... Let's make mining illegal. Smart move. Genius level, wish I had thought of this epiphany.

 

[young-gun]

ha buying a dominoes was my idea. you havnt baught a dominoes even though you know dominoes is booming, and i bet even though the impending crash is so obvious to you you havnt shorted the market or some realestate etf with any degree of success, the jury is still out on weather you pissed the greatest opportunity this country is ever gonna give you up the wall. just wondering where your getting young-gun from?

well buy a dominos then. why would i buy into an industry I have no desire to work in, nor do I have knowledge on how to manage a pizza shop. Although it may not be too difficult, it doesn't interest me in the slightest. are you the type to chase a dollar regardless of whether you enjoy what your doing or not? im thinking so. and no im not shorting anything, especially not dodgy RE etf's. im investing elsewhere, and dont care to go into with you. gold is a winner though as SCM pointed out.

im glad you re so fascinated with my nick-name. its actually in reference to my amazing abilities in the bedroom i never claimed to be a gun at investing.

now back on topic - new loans up in april by .3% over a 'downwardly revised' march. so by the time we 'downwardly revise' april well be back to square one. perhaps an incorrect assumption but we will see. a one off .3% increase isnt saving house prices anyway, but i guess it's positive data none-the-less!
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...n-March-pd20120514-UA2YV?OpenDocument&src=hp5

analysts were expecting different - analysts = wrong - big surprise.

anyway, back to pissing everything against the wall! as told by some guy whos bullsih on property.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Sooooooooooo according to your theory the whole economy in the Eastern States is based on home sales?

It's not my theory; it is a basic fact that NSW and Vic in particular have parasitic FIRE economies which feed off the housing bubble. Speculation leads to higher artificial valuations, leads to people using their property as ATMs and malinvestment in retail ensured as a result.

What about tourism? No wait ....... the high Aussie peso killed that one off.

Yes, blame mining.

What about manufacturing? No wait ...... repetitive Guvmints has driven them offshore.

A combination of the high AUD and uncompetitive hyperinflated wages driven by the requirement to service ever-increasing amounts of debt have made Australian manufacturers uncompetitive. Blame mining and the housing bubble.

What do the Eastern States produce again? No wait ....... WA has taken care of that for them.

In my view, they would be far better off without WA. WA does not take care of anyone in any particular way.

Foreign banks? What foreign banks? ANZ? NAB? WESTPAC or COMMONWEALTH?

Our banks are capital constrained - there is a limit to how much money they can print out of thin air. After they reach this amount, they borrow money from foreign banks to re-lend it dollar for dollar. And borrow they did - heavily.

And so that's how it is in the Australian economy, people leverage and drown in debt all while paying untold billions of dollars in interest to foreign banks who invest in foreign infrastructure, foreign R&D, foreign entrepreneurs - and then Australians have the nerve to wonder why we can't compete.

In 2011, Western Australia provided 46% of Australia's exports. In 2010-11, Western Australia’s gross state product was A$193 billion (14.6% of Australia's GDP), making it the nation's fourth most productive state with a GSP per capita of $82,653 (compared with the national average of $57,925).

Yes, that is because of the commodity bubble. And it is very bad for Australia as it pushes our dollar up making every other export industry uncompetitive.

Apart from that, it is barely of any benefit to Australians. Most of the money is payed to foreign shareholders, and very little tax is collected. That very small amount of tax is not even saved or invested, it's just pissed away.

If Western Australia were a separate country, it would be among the Top 50 economies in the world by GDP.

And your point is? If WA was a separate country, it's currency would appreciate so much, it would probably drive even miners out of business. But I guess that's a little more economics than you can handle.

YEAHHHHHHHHHHH ......... Let's make mining illegal. Smart move. Genius level, wish I had thought of this epiphany.

I didn't say we should make it illegal; I said if we did, it would probably benefit Australia. The point being - that is how bad mining is, it has destroyed the nation's economy.

Long after the commodity bubble is over, and the mining industry has replaced those 2% of the national workforce with machines and computers, when WA peasants are stuck without jobs and with a massive population of immigrants whom they stupidly imported, they will be begging the rest of the country for support - unknowing of the fact that they had played no small part in destroying it's economy.


And there is nothing special about WA by the way. It is only lucky in that it is the largest state by area, and happens to have a disproportionate amount of natural resources. Business and people in WA are not innovative, hard working or competitive in any particularly special way. That is in fact why they are all being replaced with machines - because the work they do is so damn simple even a computer can handle it.

The only true innovation which can lead Australia through the 21st century is found in the east.

 

[im sparticus]

Gold sure that horse bolted long ago its further off its highs than property and doesnt yeild a thing cant believe you can be duped into that con yet shaken out of your own home for a single didget decline great going young-gun, your headed straight to the top

so now your telling me you dont want a dominoes make up your mind and quit bagging property till you can take the otherside.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Gold sure that horse bolted long ago its further off its highs than property and doesnt yeild a thing cant believe you can be duped into that con yet shaken out of your own home for a single didget decline great going young-gun, your headed straight to the top

Gold is following a steady 13 year uptrend without fault. It is fundamentally an asset which appreciates against fiat currency due to monetary supply expansion.

Housing has been in a speculative bubble for over 20 years, and has started to crash. It has now fallen more and for longer than in any period of time since the bubble began. It is a fundamentally depreciating asset which eventually needs to be demolished and rebuilt.

Gold priced in AUD is an even better buy since AUD is going to go down while gold is going to go up.

 

[im sparticus]

Gold is following a steady 13 year uptrend without fault. It is fundamentally an asset which appreciates against fiat currency due to monetary supply expansion.

Housing has been in a speculative bubble for over 20 years, and has started to crash. It has fallen more and for longer since the bubble began. It is a fundamentally depreciating asset which eventually needs to be demolished and rebuilt.

Look All im saying scm is that there is no point in taking a historically defensive position when you dont have anything to defend.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Look All im saying scm is that there is no point in taking a historically defensive position when you dont have anything to defend.

Well you might want to consider saying that in a way which actually makes sense.

 

[young-gun]

Gold sure that horse bolted long ago its further off its highs than property and doesnt yeild a thing cant believe you can be duped into that con yet shaken out of your own home for a single didget decline great going young-gun, your headed straight to the top

so now your telling me you dont want a dominoes make up your mind and quit bagging property till you can take the otherside.

haha, its because of clowns like yourself i sold up. spruiking an investment that has no where left to go. talking it up and lulling the unsuspecting into your over-inflated web of housing. like i said, thank god i woke upto myself. i was 90% LVR, and my home loan would now be under water had i of stayed. if i was to lose my job(which is unlikely but possible) where does that leave me genius? i broke even, got out, and now get to enjoy my youth, while making smart investments, which basically involves anything that doesnt involve RE at this current point in time.

i have just realised there is two things certain in this world. the second being that you have no idea what you're doing.

as SCM has just pointed out again, gold has good fundamentals. not to mention everytime the morons running the show fire up their presses(metaphorically speaking) and its going to take off again.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

haha, its because of clowns like yourself i sold up. spruiking an investment that has no where left to go. talking it up and lulling the unsuspecting into your over-inflated web of housing. like i said, thank god i woke upto myself. i was 90% LVR, and my home loan would now be under water had i of stayed. if i was to lose my job(which is unlikely but possible) where does that leave me genius? i broke even, got out, and now get to enjoy my youth, while making smart investments, which basically involves anything that doesnt involve RE at this current point in time.

+1, glad to hear it mate. Us youngsters need to steer clear of these old geezers wanting to offload their over-leveraged crap to us for hyper-inflated prices.

 

[im sparticus]

Whats the bet your precious gold is underwater too, whats your cost base so far? not that it matters its not like your swinging a line as big as you house or anything gold could probably triple and you and scm would still be neither here nor there.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Whats the bet your precious gold is underwater too

If you buy a bar of gold - then it's yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.

whats your cost base so far? not that it matters its not like your swinging a line as big as you house or anything gold could probably triple and you and scm would still be neither here nor there.

Selling gold that you are holding is a stupid endeavour; especially if it triples in value (ie. imminent financial collapse).

 

[Glen48]

From memory Spartacus got mixed up is some sort of lumber business in the end.
Gold will continue to go down maybe 1500 or less once it hits this back the truck up it will be the best thing you ever did ,see who is smiling by Xmas 2012

 

[im sparticus]

If you buy a bar of gold - then it's yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.



Selling gold that you are holding is a stupid endeavour; especially if it triples in value (ie. imminent financial collapse).

some of your best work right there scm! No further questions your honour.

 

[im sparticus]

From memory Spartacus got mixed up is some sort of lumber business in the end.
Gold will continue to go down maybe 1500 or less once it hits this back the truck up it will be the best thing you ever did ,see who is smiling by Xmas 2012

my moneys all tied up (sorry still wiping away the tears from scms last post)

 

[moXJO]

If you buy a bar of gold - then it's yours. There is no debt or leverage involved. The concept of underwater does not apply here.



Selling gold that you are holding is a stupid endeavour; especially if it triples in value (ie. imminent financial collapse).

So what are you going to do with it when it all comes crashing down?
I've got some magic beans if you're interested.

 

[trainspotter]

I'm unsure if you're familiar with Australian geography and demographics or not; but here's something which might be a revelation for you:

1. Western Australia is one of six states and two territories in the Commonwealth of Australia
2. Western Australia has less than 10% of the nation's total population


Oh - and just in case you aren't good with maths, that means that WA - even when taken as an individual state, provides a disproportionately small representation of the Australian economy.

Ummmmmm it would appear you have tripped over your own words yet again oh wise and ancient one.

46% of exports and 14.6% of GDP attributed to WA is a how did you write this? "that means that WA - even when taken as an individual state, provides a disproportionately small representation of the Australian economy"

Oh but wait .... it gets better Oh learned and exalted higher than thou annointed one of all things that are holier than thou.

FACT : making WA the nation's fourth most productive state with a GSP per capita of $82,653 !!!! LOLOL

Small and disproportianate INDEED !!

But but but you wrote this "Hell, at this point making mining activities illegal would probably be good for the Australian economy" and then this "I didn't say we should make it illegal; I said if we did, it would probably benefit Australia. The point being - that is how bad mining is, it has destroyed the nation's economy."

Bwahahahhahaaaaa *gasp* ahahahhahhaggagaggaggaaaaaaaa

Oh and just in case you cannot comprehend the written word ....... oh never mind you have proven yourself worthy by contradicting yourself repeatedly in here. Go and Google rummage "Optirectomy"

But then again this might be a little more truth than you can handle

P.S. Property prices to continue to slowly deflate over the next year across the 8 capital city average of 5% JMHO