The future of Australian property prices

[robots]

hello,

bit more jealousy coming through, amazing

i guess you get the knockers when you on top, oh well

thankyou
professor robots

 

[SusanW]

What’s so bad about that chart?
Even in 2000 property was increasing at approx’ 3.5% that would mean property kept up with inflation.




What does it mean “10 year rolling”? In 2000 you could say “for the past 10 years property increased by approx 3.5% per year” That would be keeping up with today’s inflation so what’s the big deal?

Do I read this chart correctly?

So in 1990 I can say “property over the past 10 years has increased by near 10% per year”
In 2000 I can say “property over the past 10 years has increased by near 3.5% per year”
Hang on!

I’ll look at it one year at a time!
In 1990 I can say “property over the past 10 years has increased by near 10% per year”
In 1991 I can say “property over the past 10 years has increased by near 8% per year”
So 10% over 10 years and in one year alone property changed from that 10% to 8% for “all those years!”

This chart doesn’t look as good now. That’s Brisbane. How’s Melbourne?

MR, here's Melbourne. It's lowest rolling 10 yr average is 3.2%pa.
And yes, it means that over the previous 10 years, the median Melbourne house price averaged 3.2%pa growth.

And you highlight the importance of a timing strategy. One year can make a very big difference over a period as long as 10 years.

Now let's consider the investor would have been negatively geared for that whole 10 years (rates averaged 9.6%pa in the 90s), and growth was 3.2%pa. That's adding up to a pretty poor internal rate of return.

Hmmmmm.....not such a good investment in my view.....and certainly not in this day and age where stocks can be leveraged to 70% or higher.

If investors want to tie their money up for a return like that for a decade, who am I to stop them.

But for the 90s decade, the all ords achieved 9.2%pa, without considering reinvested divs.

My stock broker brother delayed buying a PPR from 1991 to 1998, and did bank stock options instead. He ended up a lot better off.

Now personally, I feel we are heading back to a sub 5%pa decade. And considering yields are so much lower now than in 1990, I am not considering passive investment properties for the next 2 years at least.....but I might pick up a developable block from one of the many cash flow strapped B&Hers that I predict will be in abundance.

Finally, why anyone into shares would touch property for a 3.2%pa decade, makes me wonder how good a share investor they are.

 

[robots]

hello,


hehehehehehehehe, oh yeah roll up roll up roll up Storm Investors, how could they go wrong, margin into stocks, why the banks close them up? surely not

opes, storm, tricom hehehehehehehe, leverage into stocks no worries, my stock broker brother cleaned up

its official again, surely thats not bubble territory

man, spruiker

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nunthewiser]

Finally, why anyone into shares would touch property for a 3.2%pa decade, makes me wonder how good a share investor they are.

]

Um for somwhere to live, turn into a castle, park up and raise some kids then have a home for them to use when ya go wandering,somewhere to park some cash you can physically use........ etc etc etc

i hold both plus other avenues.

But im from Geraldton and have no grammar skills...what would i know.....

hello,


hehehehehehehehe,

totally agree

 

[MR.]

i guess you get the knockers when you (BUY) on top, oh well

thankyou
professor robots

Thanks Susan,

I'll forward the 10 year rolling chart for Melbourne onto Robots once he responds to me question on real terms.

He should be getting back to me soon......

regards
MR.

 

[SusanW]

hehehehehehehehe, oh yeah roll up roll up roll up Storm Investors, how could they go wrong, margin into stocks, why the banks close them up? surely not

hahahhaahaaa......Botty, if your idea of someone into shares is a Storm Financial, Tricom, or Opes client, then you watch too many current affairs shows. It seems they were all incapable of opening a Comsec account, understanding the most basic technical analysis, and the importance of using stop losses and timing to do what Warren Buffet thinks is most important - preserve capital.

opes, storm, tricom hehehehehehehe, leverage into stocks no worries, my stock broker brother cleaned up

its official again, surely thats not bubble territory

man, spruiker

thankyou
professor robots

Botty, the only spruiker here is your happy self. If you are a REA, I'll be sure to remember you pre June 30 next year, when I'm looking for tax deds on a property listed by some distressed FHB who listened to someone like you.

 

[trainspotter]

Um for somwhere to live, turn into a castle, park up and raise some kids then have a home for them to use when ya go wandering,somewhere to park some cash you can physically use........ etc etc etc

i hold both plus other avenues.

But im from Geraldton and have no grammar skills...what would i know.....

I am in total acceptance of this observation. Other than the self deprecating allegations towards oneself.

Careful robots how you go there matey. Don't want to be kicked out of the asylum due to "baiting" people. Just drink the Kool Aid dude.

 

[nunthewiser]

hahahhaahaaa......Botty, if your idea of someone into shares is a Storm Financial, Tricom, or Opes client, then you watch too many current affairs shows. It seems they were all incapable of opening a Comsec account, understanding the most basic technical analysis, and the importance of using stop losses and timing to do what Warren Buffet thinks is most important - preserve capital.

Geezus

add to that list

People too busy with other interests to nurture and learn the skills involved for direct trading.

People spreading risk on there own share trading .

some very clever people got done that are more than capable of filling in a broker form, just not there intrest but just another investment vehicle for there overall portfolio.

ETC
ETC
ETC
ETC

i created a new thread and i think you will benefit from reading it

 

[MR.]

totally agree

You been into the altar wine again?


Too many posts....... I can't read that fast!

 

[explod]

hello,


opes, storm, tricom hehehehehehehe, leverage into stocks no worries, thankyou
professor robots

Only the mugs leverage into stocks and property. An investor measures things.

Did you get into those silver coins as I indicated you should there a few weeks back. You are up over 15% good work there brother.

 

[SusanW]

Um for somwhere to live, turn into a castle, park up and raise some kids then have a home for them to use when ya go wandering,somewhere to park some cash you can physically use........ etc etc etc

If only all those underwater US non recourse mortgage holders thought that way.

To be frank NTW, I'm talking about the various opportunities available annually in the investment sphere.

I actually share common ground with you in that I believe the most valuable investment one can make is kids....and that a stable family home environment is more important than the best education money can buy.

Though I've met enough people who have moved (with kids) wherever the high paying work or career opportunity is, and been able to provide a stable environment, and their kids are better for it.

Different strokes for different folks.

 

[SusanW]

People too busy with other interests to nurture and learn the skills involved for direct trading.

busy? you mean like spending $40k on a tinny to go fishing 8x a year, and pay $200 for a tank of fuel to catch $140 worth of fish, only to eat $30 worth and give the rest to the cat?

some very clever people got done that are more than capable of filling in a broker form, just not there intrest but just another investment vehicle for there overall portfolio.

I know a lot of people who are too clever to learn how to allocate capital efficiently.....

i created a new thread and i think you will benefit from reading it

Thanks NTW, but I've got it covered.

 

[Mr Z]

Jeezzzzzzzzzzz just call up Charlie and buy what he says... that oughta knock property into a cocked hat with no sweat... if ya wanna think, then you can do better, using T/A, timing, money management etc but you can do a lot worse real easy and ya don't even have to raise a sweat. Invest in the real Australia, not some Jennings inspired farmland munching suburban nightmare. :

GO AUSTRALIA!

 

[SusanW]

Hey everyone, I am going back to my cave.
Have to change PPRs in two weeks, and Chrissy beckons.
In the new year, my attention will be back on commodities and producer trading.

Been fun discussing property. I've made my views clear, and would only repeat what I've already said if I posted before February next year.
So until then.........Make it a wonderful Christmas.

 

[nukz]

House prices slump near city
Simon Johanson
December 2, 2010

MELBOURNE'S residential property market turned in a patchy performance in the June quarter, with some affluent inner suburbs recording big falls in median values, while cheaper middle and outer areas maintained strong growth.

The latest snapshot from the Valuer-General shows Heidelberg West was the star performer in the three months to June 30, with the median house price shooting up 32.1 per cent from $420,000 to $555,000.

By contrast, Middle Park's median value fell 38.7 per cent from $1,910,000 to $1,170,000 in the June quarter, while South Yarra slumped 32.3 per cent from $1,920,000 to $1,300,000.
Advertisement: Story continues below

Melton South had the lowest median price of $255,000, but still recorded a substantial 7.4 per cent increase over the quarter. Toorak had the highest median price at $2,660,000.

Overall, prices of all dwellings - houses and apartments - in metropolitan Melbourne increased by 5.3 per cent in the June quarter, with the median house price rising from $470,000 to $495,000.

Across the state, the median house price was $419,700, an increase of 19 per cent over the year.

The Valuer-General's data is derived from compulsory sale notices and is therefore the most accurate available. It can differ significantly from other data provided by property analysts because it takes longer to compile and is released in a less timely fashion.

By comparison, the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, which collects results from about 70 per cent of sales but releases them earlier, puts the median metropolitan Melbourne house price in the June quarter at $560,000.

''What our data tells you is what's going on now,'' REIV spokesman Robert Larocca said.

Another property data provider, RP Data, put the June median dwelling value - for all types of homes across Victoria, not just in the metropolitan area - at $470,000, a 16 per cent increase year-on-year.

Median house prices in country Victoria remained static at $270,000 during the quarter. Over the 12 months to June, they rose 13 per cent.

The performance of seaside properties was mixed.

In Port Fairy the median house price rose 21.7 per cent but on a year-by-year basis it was up an enormous 50 per cent. Prices in Barwon Heads also increased, by 13.8 per cent.

In contrast, values at Venus Bay, Point Lonsdale and Portland all dropped significantly.

Lorne's median house price decreased 31.3 per cent to $687,500, down from $1 million in the previous quarter. But that was off the back of a 52.7 per cent increase in the March quarter.

 

[Junior]

hello,


hehehehehehehehe, oh yeah roll up roll up roll up

thankyou
professor robots

prof robots gone mad, prof robots gone mad

PROF ROBOTS HAS GONE COMPLETELY MAD!!!!


(like the old ken bruce commercial)

 

[againsthegrain]

Robots pentium 2 could not handle it when he tried to install win 7 and he crapped out

 

[robots]

Hey everyone, I am going back to my cave.
Have to change PPRs in two weeks, and Chrissy beckons.
In the new year, my attention will be back on commodities and producer trading.

Been fun discussing property. I've made my views clear, and would only repeat what I've already said if I posted before February next year.
So until then.........Make it a wonderful Christmas.

hello,

yeah no worries, merry christmas, take it easy brother, walk tall

thankyou
professor robots

 

[nukz]

Hey everyone, I am going back to my cave.
Have to change PPRs in two weeks, and Chrissy beckons.
In the new year, my attention will be back on commodities and producer trading.

Been fun discussing property. I've made my views clear, and would only repeat what I've already said if I posted before February next year.
So until then.........Make it a wonderful Christmas.

Good thinking, we need more people in the commodities forum i'm thinking it will be a great year for commodities in 2011

Hows that latte this morning robots? have you downsized from a regular to small yet due to intrest rates?

 

[robots]

hello,

my weekly payments havent gone up yet plenty of cash sitting in it,

no, still on the mega large, if you near richmond get into 7gms the finest around town i reckon Nukz

they open 6am, always have 3 people working on coffee department

and i reckon if you go to a coffee shop and only 1 person working the coffee you in for a dud, what you reckon?

thankyou
professor robots