The future of Australian property prices

[robots]

hello,

oh gidday,

no worries with everyone departing i will keep the ship going,

oh yeah:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=142

fantastic result 60%, still some amazing results across the sales today

a unit in a block i am familar with sold b4 auction today for a record for the complex, just amazing

after the biggest financial event since 1929 on we go, oh well

enjoy the data

thankyou
professor robots

 

[trainspotter]

Good on ya robots !! Well done that man!

They must have got tired of waiting for the so called "bubble" to burst. Te he ! Can't wait for the December quarter stats on the 8 capital cities averaged home price. Terrific indicator of the Australian home prices.

 

[trainspotter]

Suburb in Perth called "Perry Lakes" has just been released. $650,000 for a 371m2 vacant block. A Duplex block of 742m2 went for 1.13 million AUD !! WOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOO !!! Go you good thing !

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

hello,

oh gidday,

no worries with everyone departing i will keep the ship going,

oh yeah:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=142

fantastic result 60%, still some amazing results across the sales today

a unit in a block i am familar with sold b4 auction today for a record for the complex, just amazing

after the biggest financial event since 1929 on we go, oh well

enjoy the data

thankyou
professor robots

It's always great to check back in here every few weeks!

Robots, are you the black knight?

"Tis but a scratch"

"Just a flesh Wound"

One day, it'll be:

"Come back, I'll bite your legs off."

 

[againsthegrain]

$650,000 for a 371m2 vacant block. A Duplex block of 742m2 went for 1.13 million AUD

what a rip off

 

[Agentm]

935 auctions for melbourne, and whats that? they lost track of 135??

lol

so the all important psychological 60% rate is achieved

which will be revised down to a corrected 54-55% on friday when those pesky missing auction results get found

and i hear its all fine in st kilda.. so the world is saved..

whats this softening term i hear all the time? bubbles cant soften..

all lies i tell you, all lies

lol

 

[explod]

935 auctions for melbourne, and whats that? they lost track of 135??

whats this softening term i hear all the time? bubbles cant soften..

all lies i tell you, all lies

lol

From 80% to 60% clearance rate in a month. That is a huge crash in sentiment.

Dont' worry about the jigged up figures, the nearest zeros are close enough in this climate.

If silver looked like dropping 10% I would be down at the bullion dealer same day recieving my cash. Cant do that with property.

 

[Dangerous]

some good sale prices still. Probably only 5-10% off March/April highs. Those who try to get an extra 5-10% ON TOP of that are failing miserably.

I keep an eye on the west and noticed:
- Ascot Vale and Flemington, ticking over very nicely 13 houses yest 100% clearance.
- Essendon also almost 100%.
- Suburbs next to the nice ones - e.g. newport, maribyrnong struggle more
- Brian Lake still not back at training:bad:

I expected clearances to tick up a bit this week after the i-rate shock despite still being off the belief that market will struggle for demand without first home-buyers and less investors... not seeing value anywhere.

 

[electronicmaster]

Good to see people are selling up here

Fantastic stuff

 

[robots]

hello,

great post Dangerous, good data from down on the ground, well done man

yeah, location location location

anything with a bit of doubt on it or massively overinflated price is struggling, but hey if someone trys it on why not,

just like putting CBA for sale on COMSEC for $60/share, you might pull it oh well

thankyou
professor robots

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

some good sale prices still. Probably only 5-10% off March/April highs. Those who try to get an extra 5-10% ON TOP of that are failing miserably.

I keep an eye on the west and noticed:
- Ascot Vale and Flemington, ticking over very nicely 13 houses yest 100% clearance.
- Essendon also almost 100%.
- Suburbs next to the nice ones - e.g. newport, maribyrnong struggle more
- Brian Lake still not back at training:bad:

I expected clearances to tick up a bit this week after the i-rate shock despite still being off the belief that market will struggle for demand without first home-buyers and less investors... not seeing value anywhere.

You sure about that? I see 4 out of 9 sold, for yesterday. 44.4% clearance.

http://realestateview.com.au/propertydata/vic/essendon/index.html

 

[indeck]

where do people normally get the clearance rate figures?

looking at the realestate.com.au website the figures look terrible. (or good depends which way you look at it)
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=ars

bris 22.6%!!

 

[-Bevo-]

where do people normally get the clearance rate figures?

looking at the realestate.com.au website the figures look terrible. (or good depends which way you look at it)
http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=ars

bris 22.6%!!

Be interested to know why such low clearence rates above yet we always hear about 60% plus clearence rates from other places, me thinks somebody fudging some numbers oh well.

 

[indeck]

id expect rpdata to over exaggerate the figures if anything

 

[robots]

hello,

and how the melbourne median going? anyone? anyone? OH WELL

thankyou
professor robots

 

[indeck]

ignored, not wasting my time seeing what you have to say when you contribute nothing.

I can see syd and melb are much higher clearance rates but still around the 55% mark.

 

[nunthewiser]

anyone know how i can place myself on ignore?

seems to be the hip thing to do around ere

lots of houses previously "under offer" around my area are back on the listings as finance fallen through etc .....

numerous listings over 1 year old.

not much moving around these parts.

oh well ...back to watching the world eat itself for a lil bit longer

 

[againsthegrain]

Its Sunday and tomorrow is Monday, oh well waiting for soon to come interest rises to make more interest on my cash deposit from so called property investors and watch them all complain how the banks are evil, oh well another day

 

[Wysiwyg]

You didnt ask me .... so heres my opinion

13%(or roundabouts ) before this cycle is complete in my uneducated, unbiased and property holding opinion.

Notice i said cycle instead of giving a timeframe

Hmmm, that is a possibility Nun over a longer time frame. It takes several years for these trends to play out.

I'd say a 45% probability. The asx implied yield curve has been reasonably accurate in the past, and they are only forecasting 2 x 25bp by mid 2012.

the greater risk is a tightening of foreign credit, which means higher funding costs for our lenders.

I don't know which chart you are referring to. The first is capital growth, and it has peaked and is coming down.

The second is IRR. As one holds property longer, rising rent contributes more and more to +CF and IRR.

Thanks for your thoughts.
Credit wise I notice more card deals being advertised (American Express (haven't seen an AM advert for awhile until recently), NAB, David Jones, Virgin for example) so loosening up of credit there. The chart I refer to is below.

STANDARD VARIABLE HOME LOAN RATES 1959 - 2010 AUSTRALIA

 

[MACCA350]

Its Sunday and tomorrow is Monday, oh well waiting for soon to come interest rises to make more interest on my cash deposit from so called property investors and watch them all complain how the banks are evil, oh well another day

Yeah bring on 15%

cheers