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The future of Australian property prices

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hello,

no worries,

i'm with you man, we just helping out fellow man, the good guys in society providing shelter

thankyou
professor robots
 
Just gotta say a very heartfelt respect to Joe Blow and the Mods for letting this tete' de tete' develop it's course. RESPECT !

Greatly appreciated on all fronts. Mine inclusive.

There has been many theorists come on here that do not back up what they claim. Mr Z is ONE of the first to have a forefront view that actually makes a modicum of sense. Backed up with sound knowledge and a straight forward opinion. (not saying that Ubi and "others" didn't make sense) sorry if this offends but he actually offered an opinion rather than just headlining.

Once again Joe Blow and the Mods .. a gratuitous thanks for letting this run it's course. In a ice hockey sense we went the whole "5 Hole trap".

This doesn't mean that I am wearing my rainbow jacket. Keep up the good work. Ahem.

I will continue to push forward with my measly minions (or is that millions) and make money out of pro ' per TEY' .

Hey robots ... keep fighting the good fight .... we gotta future to build !

Bing Bang Boom ... we got a pachyderm !
 
robots said:
hello,

no need man, not interested in credibility just interested in the truth

anyone have a definition of "real terms"? "inflation adjusted"?

thankyou
professor robots
Click to expand...

Generally I find that the truth is credible. FWIW. Where as he is wrong because I say so is well... like everyone else's opinion.

Real terms is easy! The value of the item in real purchasing power, inflation adjusted is just an attempt to measure real growth. The trouble comes when you try to nail real terms down to the $, that cannot be done IMO, only approximated. Dude I thought we covered this off ages ago! What is the point of having any investment if it doubles when everything else triples. The headline number gives you bragging rights BUT you can buy 1/3 less with the value you now have. Now it is never that cut and dry but when we get extremes in any market it can take a while to get back to them in real terms. A house in the 60's cost around 10K, don't tell me that you'd expect to swap your $400,000 unit for 40 of them.... you know that you actually have 40 times the value - get real!

It's like you got turrets with real terms...

Sad really that we cannot use $ for this but then again constantly adding 0's makes use all feel like investment heros (is there a cheesy Moving Pictures song in that? ) Man I am good I am worth X much more than dad.... as your granddad winks and smiles!

GET REAL!

HA!

Well its been real arguing at you TS!

Happy oyster irritating

Try Chinta Ria Soul iffun ya eat with the sock dude... it was good... mebe it still is! oih, what am I thinking, property moguls, you guys will be wanting Donovans ---> now that is how you run a restaurant! Love that place, relaxed, understated but top shelf all the way. Have fun!
 

very nicely put TS

for me, i have no doubts on the bubble, the opinions have been brilliant, and i agree the expressions have been on the edge..

but the best aspect is that there has been an ability to be thick skinned enough to deal with it, which imho is healthy, but totally beyond what most in the forum would tolerate.

but the gist of it all is that the future of property seems to be indicating a peak in the bubble has been met and possibly passed in my view
 
The article is not that significant, nothing we don't know but it illustrates an emerging theme of selling Australia to US punters.

One of the frustrating things about gold stocks in Oz is that they never seem to hit US valuations. The OS interest has never been there, I'd say that goes for a lot of our market. Question is, is this the tide turning? Will we actually become a hotter destination again? and for the purposes of this thread. If so how long till that flows to property. Second wind coming? Will this be an 80's rerun when we where bitching about Japan buying us? Local politics gearing itself up to blame the world for our high house prices? Hmmmmm how silly could this get?

Venture a punt anyone?

Hey its a bubble, it is going to burst but.... as my grand pappy says don't confuse inevitable with imminent! Or as is oft quote in stock circles --> The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!




The Brighter Future...
 
just checking in, saying hello to my friendly property investors.....
sun is shining out here in the country....
historical day today...with the election....
had some good rain in central vic and nsw....its broken the 15 year drought...
the cockies and farmers are happy again.....they will have money to spend, they will invigorate their local community, start employing again...its an amazing transformation....about to take place.....
I have not followed up on coalworks, the company that is expecting to start mining the black coal in Oaklands, regional NSW....since the labor govnut proposed the great big mining tax....but if the mine is still going ahead, there will be opportunites galore for property people in the surrounding district....
blocks of land in that area had doubled in price,,,,due to the early birds and worms.....
if only we had a govnut that would build the fast trains, to move freight and passengers from brissy to melb...more people would feel comfortable moving out to regional areas, with its very affordable housing, and the ability to have fast travel to work.... the mythical housing bubble due to everyone wanting to live in the middle of the city, would subside.....
after the tech crash of 2000, there was a huge exodus of boomers, who sold their city houses, and moved to the tree change and sea change areas.....
did that exodus result in a drop in prices as some would expect.....
no in fact prices have kept rising .......
you can get two houses in the regionals for the price of one in the city......
this is a great land of opportunity...for those with their eyes wide open....
cheers
 
Robots, I think you, '10% per year Kincella' and Craig James are the only ones left. Even your mentor Kochie is hearing the music. Hope you pick up a 'bargain' down Chapel Street. Remember, it should be worth less by the time you get home.

 
Morning robots,

Truly remarkable result on the auction front ! Go Enzo !

Beautiful day here, gonnna checkout some Display Homes in the morning and take the family to the Maitland Park Fair in the afternoon.

Rates on hold, plenty of work, stable banks = Utopia.

ABS evidencing drop of 0.7 % over 12 months ... no biggy when this has happened:-

Preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities increased 18.4% in the year to June quarter 2010.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0
 
trainspotter said:
.......
Once again Joe Blow and the Mods .. a gratuitous thanks for letting this run it's course. In a ice hockey sense we went the whole "5 Hole trap".
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, and let me conclude!

trainspotter said:
I will continue to push forward with my measly minions (or is that millions) and make money out of pro ' per TEY' .
Click to expand...

and from the red corner:

Mr Z said:
Hey its a bubble, it is going to burst
.......
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
Click to expand...

You can say that again!


Hey "Train Spotter", so at least now you've seen the train!
No worries then....
As you were.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCbOUgr_r-E&feature=related
 
Thanks MR. for telling me what I already know. It was a waste of time discuss the future of property with Mr Z as it seems you did not get what we were banging on about. Oh well. Thanks again to the linesmen and ballboys that participated. You know who you are.

I also typed to WayneL that I have pulled back from where I was 5 years ago. I also stated that the money exposed I can afford to rollover on a 90 day bill. No biggy. Limited exposure.

I also explained that I am in a delicious position of having involvement in the building company. This must have escaped you as well.

I will type this one more time just to enucleate my position. "If you have a fear of flying, don't get on the plane".
 
trainspotter said:
Thanks MR. for telling me what I already know. It was a waste of time discuss the future of property with Mr Z as it seems you did not get what we were banging on about.
Click to expand...

Ha ha ha, so you wrote all that just for the readers, for me? Gee thanks.... But TS half the time I didn't know what you were going on and on about. As for Mr Z he could have finished with his writtings long ago but someone has to keep blowin their trumpet. As UF claimed same old BS.

I thought you might have understood the youtube clip. But I'm not so sure....

O'l no here we go again
I also explained that I am in a delicious position of having involvement in the building company. This must have escaped you as well.
Click to expand...
Musta missed that, was that by you being their customer and creating jobs for them, their kids at school and all, or was that the unit block? Either way it must be delicious if it's in regard to property!

I will type this one more time just to enucleate my position. "If you have a fear of flying, don't get on the plane".
Click to expand...

**** no and I bet a few miners wished they didn't as well.
 
You go for it MR. ! Most Likely You Go Your Way And I'll Go Mine - Bob Dylan.

I forgot this thread is only for the naysayers who are more committed to greed and the stockmarket gains. Let's not try and make money out of building something now shall we! Better off with bits of paper in our hands rather than a roof over our heads.

 
Building houses, building mines, building energy infrastructure... it's all in the money go round. Spin the wheel some ones loses some one gains and then we go again. Capitalism does not care so long as you are right The more right you are the more fun tickets you get! Winners are grinners and all that, so on with the show!

Me... MR. I am here because I like the sound of my own keyboard I'm an ego driven closet megalomaniac with secret desires to annex Indonesia and all the bothersome little places in between and that is just for practice. I will be known as The Farter! :

Yeah Timmy! Only a pearl dude would use that one.... big werds are cool! The English language is such a powerful and subtle one. I lament my lack of skill in my native tongue and positively despair the language devolution that appears to be going on! Then again I am a freak :

OFF TOPIC! I hear the mods yelling... yeah yeah OK, but its not like this one is innocent eh?

So we have done the election and spring is on its way! Is the tide on the turn or still on its way in? Watch this space.... more stats anyone?

Happy Monday YA ALL!



 
Hung Parliament

Good, bad or indifferent for property?

I'm looking at it this way... the Australian public has handed the government a piece of paper with PTO on both sides and said now stay the heck outta the way and let us get on with it! In many ways this could be the ideal way to get the government to "first do no harm" .... LOL!

The Mad Monk and Witchy Poo with a cigarette papers thickness between them! I wish they would get a room! That would settle who is on top!

Anyway... good bad or ugly? What say you?
 
Things are not looking good at all for RE as a viable investment.

 
Personally in my opinion I reckon the property price for Australia for the long term is down nationally overall. Not the raving lunatic harbringers of doom and gloom style but more of a deflation than a massive POP. 3 - 5 % would be realistic terms.

This being said there will be places that will suffer Chernobyl style meltdowns. Ipswich in Brisbane for one is going through "mortgage stress" right now. DYOR.

Also there will be isolated pockets that will keep ticking over and returning modest returns. Pick places on the coast that are not entirely overheated and maybe have a future plan of infrastructure type projects in front of them.

I know this is sitting on the fence style of running commentary and not really telling everybody what they don't already know. The truth is we really will not know for another few years as the market levels out. Lotsa factors to consider from outside influences that will determine whether it is flight or fight time for the RE housing regime of Australalia. (no that is not a typo ... announciate it in your head)

P.S. Mr Z - When you embark on your world domination and takeover Indonesia and the pesky Islands in between can I please buy Bali from you when you are done?
 
trainspotter said:
P.S. Mr Z - When you embark on your world domination and takeover Indonesia and the pesky Islands in between can I please buy Bali from you when you are done?
Click to expand...

Yep sure, I need a despotic leader for "Pleasure Island", think you can handle it?

For god sake stop being moderate! You will kill this thread iffun you keep that up!

I was wondering if there was a wider measure of mortgage stress than just looking at payments in arrear. Many people take action before they get to that point without ever missing a payment but still feeling the heat of other commitments. I don't know what the heck you'd look at as a broader indication although I think that mortgages holders CC information (in aggregate of course) could be a good indication. Not just the headline growth number, payment info etc, some detail.
 
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