The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

TS..

I am getting bored... have you got anything interesting?

AAAAAhhhhhhh grasshopper ... you have so much to learn.

With a "consumer durable" once it has finished it's life it has gone. UNLIKE houses which have a BLOCK OF LAND ATTACHED. OOooopsies call the ATO and quantify it yourself. HAR HAR.

I will pass on your dismissive to my accountant who will also take great mirth in your perspective. She will also pass on your findings to the ATO who will gladly take up the cause. Ask for a rectal probe and ye shall recieve, THEN we shall see how mighty and powerful they are. LOLOL ...... even better yet ... ask for a "betterment statement" and see how you go!! ROFL.

SO ... now down to the engine room. The ATO according to you is what again? Ask all those people who invested their money in a tax deducitble ATO allowed TREE FARM and guess what ? They changed their mind ! And guess what ? They retrospectively individually REAMED them for everyting. Toothless Tigers EH ?? HAR HAR #2

Accountants I pay (my sister included) are employed to maximise my profitability. I will not say anymore on this as I am sure I do not need a rectal probe on my finances from the ATO. HAR HAR # 3

RBA sets monetary policy which defines Governments. Unless you want me to go on a massive Pièce de résistance about the intracacies of their involvement in this country and it's govermnents I suggest we drop this subject matter now as it will get very boring and involved from my perspective. HAR HAR #4

OK .. take out real inflation of say 8% overall which is a staggering figure for anyomes terms. I still made 15% on my money. I wrote that I only play with 20% of ingoings and usually return around 28% NETT allowing for EVERYTHING, and I still cleared 23% this time in a FALLING market.
But you must have missed that post. HAR HAR #5

Getting bored yet? Go and sell a hotdog.

 

[trainspotter]

What a holier than thou BS! You clearly don't understand capital markets and their function. People who buy stocks and finance these companies create more in terms of jobs and real wealth for this country than speculators that mark up properties. Face it all you are doing is making a given property more expensive than it needs to be. All well and good while the market lets you get away with it but for cripes sake don't go puffing yourself up over it! Talk about the pot screaming black at the kettle, you are playing pocket billiards there pal. Taking the moral high ground on that is just sickening. Why are you on a stock forum anyway?

Just LOL on this one. You seem to be responding to me just fine Mr Z.

So 4 billion wiped of Telstra in one day in a sell down HELPED WHO ??? The mum and dad investors ... no wait .. the guys that shorted it ? ... no wait .. the people that work for Telstra?


How about Western Kingfish and all the people that invested their money with them? How they doing now ?? Just cheesy I bet.

Just when I thought you were getting somewhere you go and fail me yet again.

 

[mazzatelli]

OK .. take out real inflation of say 8% overall which is a staggering figure for anyomes terms. I still made 15% on my money. I wrote that I only play with 20% of ingoings and usually return around 28% NETT allowing for EVERYTHING, and I still cleared 23% this time in a FALLING market.
But you must have missed that post.

Your percentage figures should by 4, 7.5, 14 and 11.5% respectively. There is a 50% spouse entitlement fee

 

[trainspotter]

Your percentage figures should by 4, 7.5, 14 and 11.5% respectively. There is a 50% spouse entitlement fee

Not when it is a sole director company.

 

[nunthewiser]

Would like to just point out that theres money in hot dogs regardless of how its viewed in the grand scale of things.

in fact some have found more money in hotdogs than property, machinery, art and gold put together.

i will not include stocks as thats whats paved the way.

nothin wrong with hotdogs

 

[wayneL]

Just LOL on this one. You seem to be responding to me just fine Mr Z.

So 4 billion wiped of Telstra in one day in a sell down HELPED WHO ??? The mum and dad investors ... no wait .. the guys that shorted it ? ... no wait .. the people that work for Telstra?


How about Western Kingfish and all the people that invested their money with them? How they doing now ?? Just cheesy I bet.

Just when I thought you were getting somewhere you go and fail me yet again.

So property speculators/developers never lose money/go broke? I know quite a few just in my circle of acquaintances... also many who've done exceptionally well.

Comparing the short term fortunes of a single stock to an entire property market is not valid. It would be like comparing the fortunes of one of my friends who crashed and burned on property to the entire AllOrds.

The thing to remember TS is that the game doesn't have an end siren. Certainly property has had the majority of possession recently and lots of folks are kicking goals up till now, but ultimately the pendulum swings.

How's your defensive play?

 

[MR.]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...s-on-bubble-concerns-morgan-stanley-says.html

Nah, not our banks?

 

[tech/a]

but ultimately the pendulum swings.

As it does in every business.
Property/Trading/Business should always have plan "B" "C" "D".

There are times in all of the above to batten the hatches (Consolidate) and to go hard (Speculate).

Doom and Gloom is for those who never do anything due to crippling fear and an inherent inability to think outside of their comfort bubble.

Entrepreneurs DEVELOP new and exciting ways of survival and ultimately growth.

Most of course WATCHcommenting knowingly and with impressive authority.

Many years ago a mentor at the time said to me you wouldnt learn a great deal until you go broke---at least once.
I had 2 cracks at it---he was right I learnt more about survival and business skill in those years than most others.
Its good to look back on and not forward to.

 

[trainspotter]

So property speculators/developers never lose money/go broke? I know quite a few just in my circle of acquaintances... also many who've done exceptionally well.

Comparing the short term fortunes of a single stock to an entire property market is not valid. It would be like comparing the fortunes of one of my friends who crashed and burned on property to the entire AllOrds.

The thing to remember TS is that the game doesn't have an end siren. Certainly property has had the majority of possession recently and lots of folks are kicking goals up till now, but ultimately the pendulum swings.

How's your defensive play?

Not what I typed WayneL. There are inherent risks in any venture. The trick is to minimise your exposure for when things do turn South.

My Telstra response to Mr Z was an attempt to evidence that NOT everything is **** hot and shiny on the Stocks market. It was also in reference to that I am contributing to the economy by employing people, suppliers and manufacturers by building houses. He reckons that buying stock in a particular company HELPS the economy and the company. My perspetive is that by being involved with "housing the people", creates wealth and also increses the velocity of the money in the system going around. In other words the money they make goes and buys food, pays for school fees, buys cars, supports the community ... get my drift?

The pendulum has swung WayneL ... it is rapidly going the other way with auction clearances percentages dropping, longer to sell houses blah blah blah ... I have written this FACT about 20 times already.

My defensive position is just fine thanks. I have scaled back from where I was 5 years ago. Minimal risk and not a lot of money exposed.

 

[Mr Z]

Well alright then, lets just rename the thread... how to speculate and win in property in any market!... somehow that same logic does not apply to the share market.

ATO obsession... very interesting! I do have trouble connecting that with the concept I was trying to illustrate. Ain't that just the way though, get hooked up on a definition and piss up the wall about it. Should I still be on about your abilities with a calculator? I know % are confusing.... I hope you worked out the 23% right.

Hotdog... infamous tech company, if you don't remember.

Yes LAND, it has been mentioned a number of times that I was talking about the building so either you willfully ignore or you have comprehension trouble. Guess what you are only partially right in that, its not so much the land... think about it! Think real hard Forest.

Look guys, as far as the property cohort are concerned this conversation is what it needs to be so that they can be right forever. We can't talk fundamentals becuase that is not price and price is all that counts (classic bubble mentality by the way!). When the price is flat suddenly its about speculating and the success (or not?) of a local single dwelling development. If that qualifies as a development, I was always a little more circumspect with that one, single dwelling is a speccy in my book you don't even get your junior developer badge until you are creating at least one new title (there is a clue).

Jeeze I wonder what sort of response you'd get if you where screaming 50% correction... in real terms of course... but then all that counts is the number of dollars right? Not what they can buy right? Hey here is an idea, you should have gone to Zimbabwe, man did they know how to do it right! In nominal terms that is.

RBA sets monetary policy which defines Governments.

Yep go on... do it. Why don't you explain the 80's interest rate spike and how it had nothing to do with the US bond market and US monetary policy. I repeat... in reality the RBA has limited scope of influence when things are stable. With in that context the RBA does have an effect on politics but if it where seen to be undue you would hear our politicians scream the roof down. Most of the time this is the case but even then you will find that they take their guidance from the short bond rates. When stresses build and the bond market reacts, central banks have no real choice but to follow, well actually they have one choice but it is of limited effect.

Interestingly the Fed looks about ready to use that choice. QE or direct monetization of their bond market, by the way, just in case you didn't know that is how they create money over there... it is loaned into existence and the system. So the Fed will blip up some new money from nothing, go buy some UST's with it and the US people end up owing the Fed the money plus interest, interest on something that was created from nothing! Even Zimbabwe didn't have that handicap (US Fed is a private institution by the way, just a side note!) Yippeee I hear property speculators say! This will support the bond price and keep yields and rates low! Now while that is true it pays to consider this... a large amount of UST's are owned overseas and when direct monetization of the bond market occurs bond holders step to the logical conclusion, inflation which will destroy the pitiful yield on offer so they sell driving rates back against the Feds efforts to keep them lower. Typically when they sell a % the money goes back off shore sending the USD lower which also impacts on price inflation and the value of all other OS held bonds. Now if most of these holders held the bonds for purely economic reasons (which they don't) trouble would show up in the form of higher rates quite soon, either that or insane levels of money printing by the Fed to support the market but that would be pointless becuase they are already experiencing the "pushing on a string" effect, you can only borrow so much even at 0%. One saving grace is that many of these bonds are held by foreign governments that are more interested in maintaining the value of their currency relative to the USD. Basically keeping it low so that the US can buy goods easily, it also has the happy side effect of keeping rates in check so that they can lend as well as spend on all those lovely things you export to them. Anywhoooo.... at some point that games ends, at some point direct monetization breaks the deal because the US consumer becomes of less value to the Asians and the investment at risk out weighs their value. We are entering that period of time... the end result will be high rates or high inflation both of which will impact the cost of money. Since we rely on OS money it will drive our rates higher, quite probably not as much as the AUD should be stronger but by enough to stress the debt laden.

UNTIL one of you can produce the hardship you are so KEEN to quantify I will proffer my backing with Profesor Robots. Afterall .... he has got it right.

It is a false assumption to suggest that hardship is required, over extension in good times has sent many people to the wall. We are extended in terms of debt NOW, it actually only requires us to reach a tipping point. It could be as simple as some necessity going up in cost basic things, electricity, food, medical etc. When there is no stretch left in credit that is all it takes, a small movement at the margin. It would show up subtly at first but in time could compound if underlying conditions don't change. I suspect we might be there ATM, in the build up. I don't know, I am watching.

Anyway Trainsmash, I know you don't do subtlety, only price. Price of everything and the value of nothing and all that.

5) Secondary wave of GFC - possible but unlikey due to this Guvmint printing money to prop the industry up.

WTF you don't recognize that alone as a major danger?!

3) One of the big 4 banks falling over - unlikely but possible. (Govt backed I believe)

Yeah look the banks can still go broke. The deposits are guaranteed by gov to stave off bank runs. This does not mean that they can't still blow up, if they did it would put pressure on rates. It is likely that they would nationalize a failing bank but its not a given. Regardless either event would be rate negative and would be paid for by the population as a whole via tax or newly minted money (inflation) which would further compound any debt stress in the market. Given the exposure I would think we are going to end up nationalizing at least one of the big four before this is done, my bet is the Commonwealth FWIW.

Watching 4 Corners on Monday? I wonder what they will focus on!

4) Toxic debt and non recourse and ratchet loans kicking in - We don't have ANY of these.

Yep no liars loans ever happened here did they? Fact is we don't know just how toxic these loans may or may not be. Non recourse... LOL, its called personal bankruptcy in this country. Not a first choice but there is no recourse. Interestingly enough in the US they made credit card debt recourse... it even survives bankruptcy... now that is a powerful lobby group! Most Americans don't even know that the change happened. Anyway, talk to a few boat builders about it... you'd be surprised how many have gone bust in their name, their wives name and even in their kids name.. it was all the rage late 70's into the 80's. Recourse means little if you actually hit the wall which is why most jingle mail happens. People don't tend to walk away while there is social stigma attached. The problem in the US is that it is so common it has just about lost its stigma.

Can anyone tell me what happend in the stockmarket over the same period of time? HUH ... anybody? Lets go say ....... I dunno ....... overall nationally seasonally adjusted 3 years ago as to what happened and how much did it lose in this period?

Now why is it you insist on cherry picking the real estate numbers and opportunities but want to treat the entire and very diverse stock market as a whole?

Anyway... on it goes!

 

[trainspotter]

I will get the ATO to call you in regards to your dillema of being unable to recognise the correct terminology.

"Hotdog... infamous tech company, if you don't remember." LOL .... you are still unable to understand that I was mocking you. "Go and sell a hotdog" was in reference to just that. DERRRRRRRR.

Are you jealous that I am out there making coin and employing people and doing it in all of a place known as "property"? Get over it man. You don't see me ranting that you should sell all of your gold CHESS statements because I think it is overheated and it is a crisis bubble waiting to happen? HUH ? Now do ya?

For the record Mr Z ... Below is a 10 unit development that I took from single green title to vacant strata to under construction. Do I qualify for my junior developers badge yet? Here's a clue, it's not the first time I have done this. Wanna buy one? There are 2 left. Sold off the plan as well.

 

[Mr Z]

As it does in every business.
Property/Trading/Business should always have plan "B" "C" "D".

There are times in all of the above to batten the hatches (Consolidate) and to go hard (Speculate).

You would not think that here, there is only plan A, plan B is scoffed at.

Doom and Gloom is for those who never do anything due to crippling fear and an inherent inability to think outside of their comfort bubble.

Not so... you prepare and plan. There is almost always a winning course, your job is to find it. You may remember, me from StockCentral days talking about the rising issues that lead to the GFC and starting to buy some gold. Then again you may not, it was popular to deride anyone who considered 'problems'. So far it has worked out well as a hedge... especially in the lead up to the GFC. FWIW. Yeah I know real men hate gold.

Entrepreneurs DEVELOP new and exciting ways of survival and ultimately growth.

Exactly, they don't stay on rails when the outcome is foreseeable. Which is probably why the small business failure rate sits at around 80%

Most of course WATCHcommenting knowingly and with impressive authority.

Nope... most are commenting knowingly and with impressive authority with 20/20 hindsight and never take risk. If this where 20/20 hindsight we'd not be arguing.... oh wait, +20% from the GFC bottom, yep there is that 20/20. I am arguing looking forward and my money is where my mouth is. People see the calls as negative as they judge them against their exposure when in fact they are opportunity. In reality eventually I think a lot of positive will come out of a crappy financial situation. This will make a better society in the end IMO.

Many years ago a mentor at the time said to me you wouldnt learn a great deal until you go broke---at least once.
I had 2 cracks at it---he was right I learnt more about survival and business skill in those years than most others.
Its good to look back on and not forward to.

I've never hit the wall but have come close, learned a lot about how rapidly conditions in business can change.

Anyway... I am sure that the best developers in Oz will make money regardless but as we keep getting reminded the thread title is the future of property prices not 'how to survive as a small time property developer', hell even stats like price income ratios are deemed irrelevant here! Price level concerns me, the fact that the fittest developers will survive and in all likelihood grow does not. That is talking as an investor looking to put new money to work today, not as a property developer or speculator.

 

[Mr Z]

I will get the ATO to call you in regards to your dillema of being unable to recognise the correct terminology.

Sure you do that...

"Hotdog... infamous tech company, if you don't remember." LOL .... you are still unable to understand that I was mocking you. "Go and sell a hotdog" was in reference to just that. DERRRRRRRR.

You don't seem to get that I was ignoring you!

Are you jealous that I am out there making coin and employing people and doing it in all of a place known as "property"? Get over it man. You don't see me ranting that you should sell all of your gold CHESS statements because I think it is overheated and it is a crisis bubble waiting to happen? HUH ? Now do ya?

You don't see me ranting that you should sell all your property! WTF... The holier than thou stuff is pukesome and disrespectful of other contributions but that is to be expected.

For the record Mr Z ... Below is a 10 unit development that I took from single green title to vacant strata to under construction. Do I qualify for my junior developers badge yet? Here's a clue, it's not the first time I have done this. Wanna buy one? There are 2 left. Sold off the plan as well.

Well done you! Again! Then you should know there is more value in the title than the land itself. The creation of new title is as more a part of the gain than the building itself. Which was the point I was making... compare Torrens title units to strata title units to company title units. Its the paper from the government that is the attached value more so than the LAND. Just making a subtle point.

What the heck has this to do with the future of Australian Property prices? Puffing yourself up don't really help us out now does it? What is the argument? I'm so good and your so jealous I must be right?

Awwww come on... lets look forward. This chest thumping is just a bit poxy, what about some solid analytical reasoning? So far I don't buy your logic...

LOL so what eh? You don't buy mine... to each there own and live and let live. I am not telling you to do anything, I know I can be very wrong so I make provision for that. You do as you will.... but don't try and suggest that you are some how better than those that walk a different path to yours.

 

[trainspotter]

Quite correct Mr Z, an epiphany of truly orgasmic proportions. The title of the thread is "The future of Australian property prices". I have agreed with all and sundry as to things are not very stable and that the pendulum has swung into negative territory, even given reasons as to why, even concurred with you Mr Z on several occasions. Words fail me that it seems impossible for my explanation to be misinterpreted as to something that it is not.

WE ALL AGREE WITH YOU MR Z !

I am merely pointing out that it is still possible to make money out of RE. You went off on the tangent about Gold and 800%. I advised that I am making 23% returns. No that difficult really. You play the man and not the ball on too many occasions. For a while there you were actually making sense until you had to go back to the personal jibes.

Oh well ... you keep on them gold stocks and I will play with my small time property development arm. The 10 unit development known as "Ellengrove Heights" is approx 3.95 million $ worth at end game. Chump change really.

 

[Mr Z]

I am merely pointing out that it is still possible to make money out of RE. You went off on the tangent about Gold and 800%. I advised that I am making 23% returns. No that difficult really. You play the man and not the ball on too many occasions. For a while there you were actually making sense until you had to go back to the personal jibes.

Oh well ... you keep on them gold stocks and I will play with my small time property development arm. The 10 unit development known as "Ellengrove Heights" is approx 3.95 million $ worth at end game. Chump change really.

You took the gloves off very early in the piece.... don't come whining back cause some one stood up to you! You are the only person who here who gets that level of respect, you earned it pal.

Nope I merely mentioned that there where better places to be invested across that period of time and investment is about relative value not absolute value. Then you did the whole repulsive "my investment is more moral than yours cause I employ people in my local community" stuff! Slighting every Aussie who has ever invested in Australian companies developing real wealth, real jobs and real leverage to build our economy. Don't get me wrong, some one has to do property, hell its fun!, but for Christ sake don't be thinking it elevates you above us ordinary investor folk.

$4 million turn over in a development is not what you call significant, in some parts of country Australia it will barely buy an upmarket house. I hope you netted a decent sum. 10 places, 3.95 million, Ellen Grove, Hmmmmmmm OK.

You seem so desperate to project the BSD image... yes pet you are good but how does that help us out looking forward!

You seem to constantly duck, evade or ignore most of the background discussion as to why rates etc likely will rise. You keep coming back with well I did this or that, then you bitch when you get a competing well I did this! (its a property thread nah nah nah!) Oh give me a break... if you want to play the ball then, then play the ball, and put your 10 units back in your pants.

Congrats by the way, nice looking development. If I was to do anything around here that sort of single level retirees villa is getting over the odds. Some are doing better than single level small houses if you can credit it. Makes sense though, at that time in life they just want it now! In truth most of them could buy a house, knock it down, split it into two (way conservative) retirement villa type properties, sell one and get a large chunk of their unit for free... but they don't. I have said why not to a few I have met (inlaws friends) but it seems there are few if any risk takers at that time of life. I wonder how long that little niche will roll on, even the local builders don't seem to have exploited it fully over the last few years. Maybe there are issues getting it done, Ive not dealt with this council yet and they can be painful on other issues... so! Anyway if you have to/want to buy the property then why not?

Anyway... sorry, I was almost nice to you, will not happen again, I know its not what you are paying me for. :

 

[trainspotter]

You seem to constantly duck, evade or ignore most of the background discussion as to why rates etc likely will rise. You keep coming back with well I did this or that, then you bitch when you get a competing well I did this! (its a property thread nah nah nah!) Oh give me a break... if you want to play the ball then, then play the ball, and put your 10 units back in your pants.

Anyway... sorry, I was almost nice to you, will not happen again, I know its not what you are paying me for. :

LOL ... just simply LOL. What part of this do you fail to understand?

"I have agreed with all and sundry as to things are not very stable and that the pendulum has swung into negative territory, even given reasons as to why, even concurred with you Mr Z on several occasions. Words fail me that it seems impossible for my explanation to be misinterpreted as to something that it is not.

WE ALL AGREE WITH YOU MR Z !"

This discussion you wish to keep rehashing has been done a thousand times before on this thread by others as well. I agreed with them then too!

I will take your advice and place my 10 units firmly back in my pants where they belong. Afterall it is not about property in this thread anymore. It is about the machinations as to why it will fall quicker than the Roman Empire.

Good luck with your discussion with the ATO and with your gold shares returning 800% Mr Z.

I will plod away in the sandpit with my rinkydink toys that do not contribute to the economy. No sweat.

How does Nun say it? Avva good day.

P.S. It was post #2394 I wrote this "So when I write that I agree with you that prices have fallen and yes they will keep falling and yes interest rates will rise and yes there is a softening in the market somehow make me incorrect because I agree with you ?? "

 

[wayneL]

The pendulum has swung WayneL ... it is rapidly going the other way with auction clearances percentages dropping, longer to sell houses blah blah blah ... I have written this FACT about 20 times already.

I would argue that it is not yet rapidly going the other way at all (not in Aus at least), but has merely reached the pinnacle of its swing and in that momentary pause before changing direction.... JMO of course.

Same story here in NZ.

My defensive position is just fine thanks. I have scaled back from where I was 5 years ago. Minimal risk and not a lot of money exposed.

Cool.

Many folks lose the game through lack of defence, despite a great offence.

 

[Bushman]

Wow, can you two please just get a room and be done with it?

 

[Mr Z]

LOL ... just simply LOL. What part of this do you fail to understand?

"I have agreed with all and sundry as to things are not very stable and that the pendulum has swung into negative territory, even given reasons as to why, even concurred with you Mr Z on several occasions. Words fail me that it seems impossible for my explanation to be misinterpreted as to something that it is not.

LOL... yeah then in the next breath you attack the very same things, honestly looks a little bipolar. I really don't think I fail to understand any of it and frankly I think you are a little confused as to my position.

WE ALL AGREE WITH YOU MR Z !"

LOL that just makes me paranoid !

This discussion you wish to keep rehashing has been done a thousand times before on this thread by others as well. I agreed with them then too!

Oh sorry, I was not here... does that make it better?

I will take your advice and place my 10 units firmly back in my pants where they belong. After all it is not about property in this thread anymore. It is about the machinations as to why it will fall quicker than the Roman Empire.

Yes please.... I wanna see you walk like John Wayne.

Yeah Rome, OK if you say so... huh?

Good luck with your discussion with the ATO and with your gold shares returning 800% Mr Z.

How this is relevant I don't know, somehow in the way your mind works... you got around to what? Threatening me with what? An ATO reaming for what? I pay my tax, when it comes due, LOL I don't even feel the need to attempt to minimize it. You have to drop that fixation, it seems unhealthy!

I will plod away in the sandpit with my rinkydink toys that do not contribute to the economy. No sweat.

My don't we have a glass jaw! Nowhere did I say its not a contribution BUT for you to hold yourself above others that technically speaking are making a greater contribution to the real wealth of this country is obscene. Calm down nobody is saying you aren't spinning then money go round, just don't infer others are doing worthless things. Man I guess I forget property is religion in Australia! When I lived in Sydney it was an obsession, viewing house was weekend sport for the bored and boring. I just went sailing...

How does Nun say it? Avva good day.

P.S. It was post #2394 I wrote this "So when I write that I agree with you that prices have fallen and yes they will keep falling and yes interest rates will rise and yes there is a softening in the market somehow make me incorrect because I agree with you ?? "

Its funny to see you hedge bets... then come back for a swipe. You don't wanna play nice yet?

Here is another bone...

Charlie Aitken who is a good analyst for Southern Cross, has a nice track record by my observation. He is talking property +9% over the next three years with unemployment falling to 4.5%. Hmmmmmm he dose not expand on it enough for me to get a full grip on it other than he is very bullish Australia in the near term. I agree with a lot of his calls, can't fault his logic on many companies.

One thing that does concern me is we are getting to much negative press which probably means we are going the other way for a little while longer. Hmmmmmm maybe this stimulus has a little life left in it. With my traders hat on that this press is a warning signal... even seeing stuff like this...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...s-on-bubble-concerns-morgan-stanley-says.html

Whatever happens they rarely announce it in the paper ahead of time!

I will be watching the spring action very closely!

Big wads of OS dough heading our way on a commodities bet could end up underwriting a bit more growth in the cities and mining areas. Now that I would buy as a short term stimulus. You have to worry when even the property bulls are flat on prospects. The initial phases of US QE2 could run better than they logically should, mainly because when it comes to depth and liquidity there are few places to park billions with the speed and safety that you can in the UST market. That fact alone has been a big help to keep rates lower than the fundies should dictate. Flight to safety, LOL yeah right, but at least you should get most of it back in the short term. Rates went negative in the crisis, now that is scared money! The question is will we feel rich enough to keep pushing out the boat for property? Hmmmmm when, when, when will it turn? Three more years in a commodity driven frenzy? Too many people calling for a stockmarket crash this year as well.

Oh well, maybe 1,000,000 flies will be right this time.

Chin up Trainwreck!

Three more good years! That would be nice eh?

Maybe we walk the tight rope between Asia and the US without a slip... man that would be cool!

 

[Mr Z]

Wow, can you two please just get a room and be done with it?

Will a Villa do? :