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Will a Villa do?:
Only if it returned a nominal return of 10% p.a. over the last five years!
The future of Australian property prices
- Thread starter Joe Blow
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Only if it returned a nominal return of 10% p.a. over the last five years!
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It is a bit like that in England.
Did you actually read my post? Sometimes I wonder, maybe that is the root of the main problem.
You have a whole alpha dog thing going on don't cha?
Buy growth!
Go Australia!
Go Charlie!
Did you actually read my post? Sometimes I wonder, maybe that is the root of the main problem.
You have a whole alpha dog thing going on don't cha?
Buy growth!
Go Australia!
Go Charlie!
Only if it returned a nominal return of 10% p.a. over the last five years!
I think motel rooms do better than that!
: Build a motel in a mining town TS... that should be a winner regardless!
China... a bone of contention.
China's GDP and Questions of Strength
Like it or lump it we are tied closely to China... this is one of the big unresolved issues that could blow back on us. Can they transition seamlessly from a codependent US relationship to internally fueled growth. Honestly so many opinions on that one its crazy! China weak, China strong... every time they bury us on the back of China's 'weakness' they come back swinging and so do we. Maybe when the China bears give up we should worry about Aussie property?
China's GDP and Questions of Strength
Like it or lump it we are tied closely to China... this is one of the big unresolved issues that could blow back on us. Can they transition seamlessly from a codependent US relationship to internally fueled growth. Honestly so many opinions on that one its crazy! China weak, China strong... every time they bury us on the back of China's 'weakness' they come back swinging and so do we. Maybe when the China bears give up we should worry about Aussie property?
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ANZ Property Outlook - supply issues to 'absorb' the followers of Gerard Minack. PS: remember when Gerard was calling for a 20% correction this year after we had already had a RSPT-inspired 15% pull-back? Lol ...
View attachment ANZ Australian Property Outlook August 2010.pdf
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
With interest rates expected to rise, we expect house price growth will (temporarily) slow to low single digits in 2011. Nonetheless, in the absence of a major economic downturn, a critical shortage of housing will see house prices and rents grind ever higher and housing affordability and availability will become major social and political issues in the decade ahead
View attachment ANZ Australian Property Outlook August 2010.pdf
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
With interest rates expected to rise, we expect house price growth will (temporarily) slow to low single digits in 2011. Nonetheless, in the absence of a major economic downturn, a critical shortage of housing will see house prices and rents grind ever higher and housing affordability and availability will become major social and political issues in the decade ahead
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So when you wrote this "My appraisal has been simply that I think the odds favour the bears. Even the esteemed Mr Spotter concurs with that although maybe we would probably differ on degree. " and Post #2393 and #2400 added in for good measure adds up to what again? That I agreed with you that property prices were in decline but you differed on degree?
So you are not talking it down now but are now saying "C'mon Aussie C'mon"?
Man you are confusing as a guru to follow !
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I think motel rooms do better than that!
Build a motel in a mining town TS... that should be a winner regardless!
2 storey, 100 room brothel in Kalgoorlie would be worth a look at if you could get planning approval. More interested in the building side then the business side myself.
:
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The latest from RP DATA:
The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) August Board meeting were released this week. The minutes stated the following on house prices:
“There had been further signs of a cooling in the established housing market after a year of strong price increases. Housing prices had shown little growth over the past few months, with prices falling in June, including in Melbourne where price growth had earlier been strongest. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne had declined significantly, to around average levels. Housing loan approvals were estimated to have declined further in June and housing credit growth had moderated. These developments suggested that the earlier increases in lending rates were having an effect on household behaviour.”
Without explicitly stating, the Board were clearly referencing the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results which showed values were down -0.2% over the June quarter and had fallen by -0.8% over the month of June.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) reported that housing affordability deteriorated in most capital cities and regional areas over the June quarter. The HIA-CBA Housing Affordability Index fell by -6.1 per cent in the June 2010 quarter to be -30.4 per cent lower compared to the same period last year. The Index combines interest rates, household incomes, and home prices to determine affordability conditions. Affordability declined by -6.5 per cent over the June 2010 quarter across the nation’s capital cities and was down by- 3.5 per cent in Regional Australia. The largest falls were recorded in Sydney (-9.1 per cent), Regional Victoria (-9.0 per cent), Regional Tasmania (-8.8 per cent), and Adelaide (-8.7 per cent).
Which is what I have been typing now for several months but but but ... Oh nevermind.
The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) August Board meeting were released this week. The minutes stated the following on house prices:
“There had been further signs of a cooling in the established housing market after a year of strong price increases. Housing prices had shown little growth over the past few months, with prices falling in June, including in Melbourne where price growth had earlier been strongest. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne had declined significantly, to around average levels. Housing loan approvals were estimated to have declined further in June and housing credit growth had moderated. These developments suggested that the earlier increases in lending rates were having an effect on household behaviour.”
Without explicitly stating, the Board were clearly referencing the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results which showed values were down -0.2% over the June quarter and had fallen by -0.8% over the month of June.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) reported that housing affordability deteriorated in most capital cities and regional areas over the June quarter. The HIA-CBA Housing Affordability Index fell by -6.1 per cent in the June 2010 quarter to be -30.4 per cent lower compared to the same period last year. The Index combines interest rates, household incomes, and home prices to determine affordability conditions. Affordability declined by -6.5 per cent over the June 2010 quarter across the nation’s capital cities and was down by- 3.5 per cent in Regional Australia. The largest falls were recorded in Sydney (-9.1 per cent), Regional Victoria (-9.0 per cent), Regional Tasmania (-8.8 per cent), and Adelaide (-8.7 per cent).
Which is what I have been typing now for several months but but but ... Oh nevermind.
LOL... over the long term the bears win I think (given the current numbers) but in this environment with the liquidity fire hose squirting around the world you simply cannot rule out short term moves in any market. Three years is short in my world, for property, you may disagree. I think any market can surprise here and run against some seemingly negative fundamentals. This is the trouble with such wholesale money creation, you distort moneys roll as a measure and making sense of things gets tricky. All the while the market seems to make sure that the most people possible are wrong! So if you can show me where the money is coming from I can believe that we will get a short term reaction. Property is bubble like, but the one thing we have learned since Easy Al took over the Fed is that bubbles can be remarkably persistent and calling there demise by betting against them can be very dangerous. Sorry but when I see articles calling for the public to short banks on an obvious property call the hairs on the back of my neck rise. I give Charlie good odds in the short term mainly because of the sound case he makes for growth equities... that same thinking can flow through to property. Maybe you will be calling +30% since the GFC in a couple of years before the top is finally in. I dunno my jury is out and watching for spring and life to come back into this market. Maybe we get a bit of a head fake for the bulls then we go as the bullish factors kick in. Watch commodities... IMO FWIW.
Mate if I am a guru people are in deep do do!
Anyway... too much anti property press to feel comfortable that now is the turning point, even though it makes sense.
I reckon things are going to get more volatile all round generally over the next decade or so... should be fun.
Yeah... talking certain stocks... but yeah, in the end it could all be good, even property if the capital flows get strong enough.
One thing to consider is that there are not a lot of good news stories around really. We are a safe first world commodity driven economy, we could come in for a lot of attention here! I am liking that call more and more.
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I reckon things are going to get more volatile all round generally over the next decade or so... should be fun.
Yeah... talking certain stocks... but yeah, in the end it could all be good, even property if the capital flows get strong enough.
One thing to consider is that there are not a lot of good news stories around really. We are a safe first world commodity driven economy, we could come in for a lot of attention here! I am liking that call more and more.
In the next decade or so I will be in my Villa in Bali full time and long gone out of property in OZ.
AHA ..... you have hit the nail on the head with the commodity statement. The worlds thirst for our LNG, Brown Coal and Iron Ore keeps us ticking along globally. Like you stated previously this all depends on Chinas appetite for our soon to be dug up wealth.
Uranium and our 23% world deposit will be next on the hit list to be plundered more than what it is now. As the Governement of the day is required to pay the ageing population to stay alive and feed all of the self made blackholes of dependency driven social workers, reduce debt with ridiculous timeframes driven by insatiable bad press I reckon their palms will be itchy to get their hands on the last bastion of our economy.
As soon as you hear that the Government green lights more symbol U developments you will well and truly know we are on the ropes as a fiscally sound country.
Then the blood will run in the street. So another 3 years HUH ? Might go and buy some more property on the strength of that.
hello,
spot on today Trainspotter, its pure jealously, tall poppy syndrome which most australians participate in
the job creation in housing is enormous, you and me can see it because of our abilities
what a great day
thankyou
professor robots
spot on today Trainspotter, its pure jealously, tall poppy syndrome which most australians participate in
the job creation in housing is enormous, you and me can see it because of our abilities
what a great day
thankyou
professor robots
Yeah that'd be it! Pure jealousy
Oh dear.... Job creation maybe so but at the end of the day house's are not the building blocks of a nation, they don't represent real wealth, real wealth is the productive capacity of our nation. Econ 101 dude....
But I forget myself, being in the presence of property royalty and all.
Now if there is a another surge here what boats float first?
Melbourne has had a dash, so do we look elsewhere.
Please do tell mr property guru?
hello,
here's one from yesterday, i can understand you might of missed it being busy running the ruler over other people's work
thankyou
professor robots
Yep OK... I will, its all relative, right. You go hard though!
Minack is probably not wrong, just early.
Is that all we get?
Come on Mr Bots... some insight please! What where when how, you know quality content.
What about Perth eh?
What about other fly out cities eh?
Make sense or just so much more crap... after all... eh?
Don't be shy...
Any property CFD's yet? LOL Now they could be fun!
hello,
agentM asked me what was wrong with Minacks article and this post i followed with, Minack is wrong on the following (and others):
but we know spruikers are about getting your cash and looks as though they have a host of suckers out in the community
when you look at the dollars they have under management with no obligation what so ever
thankyou
professor robots
agentM asked me what was wrong with Minacks article and this post i followed with, Minack is wrong on the following (and others):
but we know spruikers are about getting your cash and looks as though they have a host of suckers out in the community
when you look at the dollars they have under management with no obligation what so ever
thankyou
professor robots
You kinda need to show why? You know, show your working, like at school. For credibilities sake? You know credibility... right?
Like with say c. pull up the stats and show us why he is wrong. You have done the work haven't you? I mean that is how you know isn't it?
Like with say c. pull up the stats and show us why he is wrong. You have done the work haven't you? I mean that is how you know isn't it?
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Shonk Market down 1.1% Botman. Hows the property going out East? Must be due for a drive buy and watch the tenants pay the rent by now eh?
Glorius us property people ... just housing the poplulation and keeping them out of cardboard boxes in the street.
Will be in Melbourne in November. Must catch up for coffee.
Glorius us property people ... just housing the poplulation and keeping them out of cardboard boxes in the street.
Will be in Melbourne in November. Must catch up for coffee.
