Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The Elliott Wave debate

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tech/a said:
"Can you trade EW as a standalone method?"

YES
Click to expand...

I would really like to see you do that,
but i fear you'd just be trend trading.

your profits would IMO lie in the general 'trends' and 'waves' which EW defines about markets,

but surely many would contribute the profits to the entire method, regardless of its absurdity
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
So proof emerges of the "Silly" post.
Drawing a line to the peak and troughs of a chart hardly constitutes Support and resistance let alone E/W.

If your going to argue a methodology at least have some knowledge of its structure.There are 3 basic rules and drawing lines from peaks and troughs don't satisfy those rules.
Click to expand...

Tech, I think you're missing my point. If I can place a stop for my trades just before others, I'm happy. If I place a stop for my trades at a price level that gets hit but does not continue further, I'm very unhappy. I read the tape/dom and only try to take about 8pips at a time, so very tight, effective stops get me excited (very excited;)).

Sitting around drawing waves accurately is not something I care about, I just make a mental note of a possible levels and watch the tapes reaction to these levels.

To me, EW is basically the same thing as "mental levels". If a few people believe it will have an effect on the market then that will affect their trading and that will consequentially effect the market. It becomes self fulfilling.

Can EW help one to build a profitable system? Well, aren't you evidence of that?
 
beerwm said:
I would really like to see you do that,
but i fear you'd just be trend trading.

your profits would IMO lie in the general 'trends' and 'waves' which EW defines about markets,

but surely many would contribute the profits to the entire method, regardless of its absurdity
Click to expand...

How else does Elliott or any other Analysis make a profit.?
You find somewhere to enter where your anticipating a move in your direction (trend).

Naked shorts said:
Tech, I think you're missing my point. If I can place a stop for my trades just before others, I'm happy. If I place a stop for my trades at a price level that gets hit but does not continue further, I'm very unhappy. I read the tape/dom and only try to take about 8pips at a time, so very tight, effective stops get me excited (very excited;)).

Sitting around drawing waves accurately is not something I care about, I just make a mental note of a possible levels and watch the tapes reaction to these levels.

To me, EW is basically the same thing as "mental levels". If a few people believe it will have an effect on the market then that will affect their trading and that will consequentially effect the market. It becomes self fulfilling.
Click to expand...

Firstly your not talking about Elliott.
Joining the dots is nothing more than S&R.
I dont disagree eith you on being self fullfilling we all see it every session.
My point is dont confuse S&R with Elliott it has little relevance.

Can EW help one to build a profitable system? Well, aren't you evidence of that?
Click to expand...

Its not used in a system purely as a "feel good"where am I in this trade if I take it.If I have a no supply bar at a posible end wave 4 then I'm on it.
If its in a wave 3 then its possibly not as powerful.blah blah blah.Endless example endless example.
 
i dont understand why the people who are against EW just let the people who are for EW continue to make "bad trading choices" (in the non-EWers view).

If someone wants to use EW and you think its wrong who cares??? let them "make the mistake" of using EW if they believe it works.

each to their own i say

if we're all making our own decisions how can using a bit of EW hurt?

if you dont believe in it just dont read the post or laugh at it because YOU think its contrarian

EWers bring on the analysis!
 
i was being sarcastic.... :D

granted this is a discussion... people are acting like someone is saying "this is the ONLY way"

it just amuses me that people are SO against it and it has been getting heated... no one is say you HAVE to use it.
 
swm79 said:
it just amuses me that people are SO against it and it has been getting heated... no one is say you HAVE to use it.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's been heated but it is interesting the sensitivity. One EW poster has been wrong here all year. Any mention of that and you are labeled an EW hater. And told to move on. Then we learn that the EW guru on this forum is a nutter that likes to create extra personalities and praise himself.

But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it. Thats most definitely worth the discussion.
 
just loves the elliot wave discussions :D

always guarenteed a " u dont understand it " or a " u obviously know nothing about it " comment when one questions its uses in trading

i understand what i see .............. cant help but get plastered with it here ........ shame i havent seen to much forsight help with it tho ....... BUT i do enjoy the detail and work that goes into the posting of the analysis and charts

i personally dont use it for trading but i do like some of its theory and think that its better left to the obvious experts on it here

oh i really think Gann rocks also :D
 
its a bit like standing at a crossroads , and wondering which way to walk .. EW just tends to pick every scenario that could happen and then tooting its horn if it gets one out of the 15 guesses right

no offense intended and do understand that the individual can interpret it many ways . but have seen many interpretations here so far and only seen it work best in hindsight when one can draw in the out come afterwards

please do not respond to my posts as not here for another round of earbashing and abuse , just mainly stating MY thoughts on what i can see

oops addition . of course you entitled to your right of reply all i meant is there will not be one from me as its just all too hard to discuss without upsetting the minions
 
Trembling Hand said:
I don't think it's been heated but it is interesting the sensitivity. One EW poster has been wrong here all year. Any mention of that and you are labeled an EW hater. And told to move on. Then we learn that the EW guru on this forum is a nutter that likes to create extra personalities and praise himself.

But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it. Thats most definitely worth the discussion.
Click to expand...

true true... hahah

But whatever you do don't point out that it seems few can actually really trade with it.
Click to expand...

i've got respect for people who use EW and i think if its something they feel happy with using more power to you. i'll take advice re: EW but i'll always make my own decisions. i personally dont use it... but then, i have no experience with it, so i wouldnt know where to begin... well, maybe
 
Look, elliot wave theory is very hard, and subjective to follow and label, but there are definite positives to be taken from the theory.

I would never trade, purely on an elliot wave theory, it is in my opinion, not a strategy with a high probabilty of sucess, but when used with other techniques can become very powerful.

I believe that you can take positive/negatives from every theory. It is easy to critize and dismiss a theory that you believe to be wrong, but its it is smarter to listen, learn and develop from it.

In any case, the only thing that makes theory correct or incorrect, is other people obeying the same theory, so theorys are self perpetuating. What makes elliot wave theory hard to self perpetuate, is that the labeling of waves is subjective. For example, what i call an A wave you may call wave 2, or what i call an a-b-c correction you can wave 1-2-3. Therefore the theory is very hard to perpetue with great sucess.

theorys such as support and resistance are perpetuated with easy because everyone here knows how to identify them and everyone will follow them!

Im going to duck for cover as i say this, because not everyone will accept what i say.

Contrary to this rule, there are mathamatical anamolys which occur in different stocks, which can be traded with a high probabilty of sucess, Gann spoke of them but did not reveal them, but i can vouch from how they are traded, because i have seen people discover these and have used them, and backtested them.

No single theory can be called wrong or stupid, because it is a theory, and in certain situations, any theory could be correct. Only ignorant people will say that a theory is BS or that is a load of crap, a theory is correct until it is not. A Good trader will adapt and develop his theories based on what the stock or index says to you, let it speak to you. Becuase you may find you have an elliot wave channel, or a fibonacci cluster, if you do, trade it! Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do.

This is my opinion, and im not have a go at anyone, so dont throw darts at my head! haha
 
No single theory can be called wrong or stupid, because it is a theory, and in certain situations, any theory could be correct. Only ignorant people will say that a theory is BS or that is a load of crap, a theory is correct until it is not. A Good trader will adapt and develop his theories based on what the stock or index says to you, let it speak to you. Becuase you may find you have an elliot wave channel, or a fibonacci cluster, if you do, trade it! Neven let the theory dictate to you what the stock or index should do.
Click to expand...

A theory can be right or wrong
explain the facts or not.

Can stocks go up and down
in any other way but
Elliot's waves

No = Theory is Right ...Don't leave home without EW map
YES = Find better more encompassing REAL map
least you on sidelines when you should be in the game
or you in the game when only the EWers are playing pretend and everyone else is on the sideline,,

motorway
 
motorway said:
A theory can be right or wrong
explain the facts or not.

Can stocks go up and down
in any other way but
Elliot's waves

No = Theory is Right ...Don't leave home without EW map
YES = Find better more encompassing REAL map
least you on sidelines when you should be in the game
or you in the game when only the EWers are playing pretend and everyone else is on the sideline,,

motorway
Click to expand...

Well no theory is 100%, but i have found situations where the stock will follow elliot wave biblically, with easy labeling. But i see what you are saying, and i reply with no, stocks can go in any way they want, they dont obey elliot, every time.

However think about this, in the time of elliot wave theory, perhaps his study found that based on the coniditons and human emotion of that time, that is how the stocks moved, (i don't know if this is right im hypothesising). But given today, we have a brand new series of events and conditions, with new emotion which will spit out brand new cycles and theorys, so elliots theory may not continue to work. I know from recent trading, that certain stocks having bear runs would only last 45 days, this was a rule backtested. that rule is no longer valid, but who knows maybe it be true again if conditions and emotion allow.
 

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