The Elliott Wave debate

[wayneL]

Are Elliott's Wave's in anyway more important or significant than Kondratieff's?

Just a question.

Please help me TH, I have no idea about this?????

Not TH, but my

Kondratiev Waves may be analogous to the EW grand super cycle (or whatever euphemism they use), but EW's are purportedly fractal and can allegedly be applied by the self described elite few p to shorter time frames than K-Waves.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Not TH, but my

Kondratiev Waves may be analogous to the EW grand super cycle (or whatever euphemism they use), but EW's are purportedly fractal and can allegedly be applied by the self described elite few p to shorter time frames than K-Waves.

cheers WayneL for your analysis.

Thanks
Gumby

 

[bowman]

The difference between surfing and Elloitt, is that with surfing everyone sees the same waves.

I tried Eliott but gave up in frustration, and now i'm getting a bit old to surf, so basically I'm buggered.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

How about broker statements from EW traded account?

In ALL posts on E/W I make it very very clear that all I want Elliott to do is give me an indication of where I am in a trade or where the index is in its maturity or infancy.

Go back and read all charts I have posted.
The latest have been very clear.
(1) The longer term Weekly is quite possibly nearing the top of a longer term wave 4 so the wave 5 final weekly corrective wave is imminent.
(2) The shorter term daily is also at the top of a 5 wave corrective move within a 3 wave up move so a corrective wave 4 is imminent within the 5 wave shorter term daily pattern.
When this plays out the the weekly is likely to come into play.

Not that hard and really handy.Has kept me on the right side.
Now how many statements do you want going back how long that Ive made profit on the right side of the market. $500 a piece and happy to oblige.
All moneys to Joe.

just where possible S/R points are.

So proof emerges of the "Silly" post.
Drawing a line to the peak and troughs of a chart hardly constitutes Support and resistance let alone E/W.

If your going to argue a methodology at least have some knowledge of its structure.There are 3 basic rules and drawing lines from peaks and troughs don't satisfy those rules.

Happy to run some purely E/W trades if you all wish not that that's how I trade it---but there are some excellent trading methodologies using Elliott ONLY.
AGET has 5 in built methods.
Even with counts AGET uses other analysis to confirm trade suitability (stochastic false bars one of the most popular which is nothing more than using Stochastic PROPERLY)--wise in any trading.

 

[wayneL]

I guess the biggest question is:

Why should EW work?

 

[wayneL]

Re AGET

I have never used it and probably never will, but I have quite a lot of experience with another EW software (I worked for the company for a bit).

Let's just sat apart from being a typical pattern based deal where success depends on the trader creating +expectancy outcomes, EW software does nothing to improve the traders odds of success.

Fishing around the interwebs, some folks are saying that though AGET now has backtesting capabilities, you cannot test AGET's proprietary indicators...

LOL

Red flag!!

This is not to say it isn't useful. But it still comes down to the trader. If you can make EW and AGET work, you can do it without EW and AGET... IMNSHO.

EW, just like MACD, Stoch, red and green lines etc, is a crutch.

There is nothing wrong with a trading crutch. I readily admit to using a crutch from time to time (just can't resist those pretty coloured lines )... so long as the trader realises that it is just a crutch.

That said, I like EW correctives as trading opportunities. They are high(er) probability patterns IMO. But I never bother to label them. Whether it is wave A,G,F,R,L,H,G,S,J,H,Y,E,V,K,D... whatever, the pattern triggers something in my mental map that makes me want to trade it. Who gives a f~~~ what you call it.

 

[tech/a]

Interesting thoughts Wayne.

So in your opinion any and all technical analysis is nothing more than a crutch a feel good decision making tool and one should be able to trade profitably without these "Crutches"?

Off for a run but will call back later.

 

[wayneL]

Interesting thoughts Wayne.

So in your opinion any and all technical analysis is nothing more than a crutch a feel good decision making tool and one should be able to trade profitably without these "Crutches"?

I like what Nick said once on this board (and forgive me if I've added my own cognitive bias) that T/A is nothing more than creating boundaries for entries/exits.

I believe T/A improves the potential for selecting low risk opportunities (and therefore mathematical expectancy). EW/pattern analysis may be a part of that... and I *believe* it improves my trading beyond random.

But the important point that I'd like to make is that the extraneous addition of subjective analysis by labelling waves, drawing trendlines, creating indicators, etc etc etc etc is merely giving ourselves permission... or perhaps an excuse to enter/exit a trade.

In hindsight, it is rare that we could not have improved a trade with some other indicator, parameter, fib/whatever level, or label... but this can only be determined in hindsight.

That said, humans *need* some sort of parameter, some sort of justification for any action. It is always logic invented to justify an emotion decision.

For any given signal where there is a surplus of signals over capital, why did we chose to trade ABC over XYZ, or why did we choose to take one signal and not the other. Gut feel? X factor?

Mathematics saves us from ourselves if we realise how cognitively biased we are. This is the reason for money management. Without it, even if the individual is good at selecting trades, we have the potential to blow ourselves up.

This all begs the question as to how good the our subjective analysis is, compared to or objective trade rules (cut losers, let winners run). I like to kid myself that my T/A input is important and I do believe it is, but often events cause me to question.

<edit to add> I'm full of cheap Spanish Merlot ATM, so if it looks like BS, it probably is.

 

[bowman]

<edit to add> I'm full of cheap Spanish Merlot ATM, so if it looks like BS, it probably is.

LOL I'm envious.

I'm full of cheap home made muesli atm.

 

[tech/a]

I like what Nick said once on this board (and forgive me if I've added my own cognitive bias) that T/A is nothing more than creating boundaries for entries/exits.

An observation I have made on this board more than once.

However I'll go further.

A chart to me is a perfect snap shot of Crowd behaviour in whatever time frame you look at.

Technical analysis quantifies/measures/and deconstructs that crowd behaviour,giving us the opportunity to create boundaries(entries/Exits/Trailing stops) in anticipation of the next movement of the crowd or a part there of.

 

[explod]

An observation I have made on this board more than once.

However I'll go further.

A chart to me is a perfect snap shot of Crowd behaviour in whatever time frame you look at.

Technical analysis quantifies/measures/and deconstructs that crowd behaviour,giving us the opportunity to create boundaries(entries/Exits/Trailing stops) in anticipation of the next movement of the crowd or a part there of.

And I have observed this on many occasions which is the same thing:- SINTIMENT SENTIMENT SENTIMENT.

I like just the simple chart without trailing averages or bollingers et al, just the chart and the volume. But above all the right sector, eg it is mainly energy at the moment IMHO.

 

[Timmy]

SINTIMENT

This is especially useful if trading the NZD :

 

[wayneL]

This is especially useful if trading the NZD :

 

[Sean K]

 

[Trembling Hand]

This thread should of been named something else. A couple of suggestions,

"Dangers in blindly following a Guru."

"Can you trade EW as a standalone method?"

"Was WP a nut?"

"Are we all nutz?"

 

[beamstas]

Re: XAO Analysis

EW analysis allows me to guess where EW users are placing their stops. Thats the only benefit I see in it.

Wowee
You must be moving ALOT of volume if knowing where the stops are for people using EW are on Eur/Usd.

 

[explod]

I do not use Elliott Wave theory, but my readings of it indicate (and I am repeating myself) that the waves movements are backed up (historically)when measured against market fundamantals at most stages.

And as has also been said, some say we passed wave 5 some time back at the last crash, I believe we are still in a wave 5 and we will go, on fundamentals, into one hell of a wave down as it exhausts.

Hope that makes sense, and no reds either.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wowee
You must be moving ALOT of volume if knowing where the stops are for people using EW are on Eur/Usd.

Gee, you're posting a lot here recently beamstas. Thanks for your contributions.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I have seemed to of woken up in the twilight zone, Nun was right.

it usually turns into one big massdebate anyways

 

[tech/a]

In reply

This thread should of been named something else. A couple of suggestions,

"Dangers in blindly following a Guru."

Who are you talking of that followed him?

"Can you trade EW as a standalone method?"

YES

"Was WP a nut?"

No of course not

"Are we all nutz?"

Possibly