The Elliott Wave debate

[Bobby]

Bobby,

That complex wave might just be forming.

Yep ! It just formed , its called the Dumper

 

[Chris45]

Hi,
Someone has given me a copy of Graham Dyer's Newsletter. Graham seems to be using Elliott Wave. Does anyone get the newsletter and is it any good? The one copy I have is very interesting. I know nothing about Elliott Wave. Is there a Elliott Wave for Dummies book or similar?
Thanks for your help.
Rogue Trading

Danger of going "off topic" here but I used to get his newsletter and found it interesting, although he's a Prechter follower and tends to be a bit of a "permabear".

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I'm talking with myself here and it seems the complex wave is eventuating. Where and at what price will it turn?

 

[Kryzz]

IPL has got a bit of an a-b-c here, currently sitting in the 50-61.8% retracement zone, wave A and wave C have more or less achieved wave equality, roughly .50 cents, volume doesn't look too promising with the most recent decline and wave C took a lot longer to complete than wave A too (another negative i believe), parabolic sar is 2.97 or more aggressive entry at 2.88

 

[Kryzz]

Edit: I totally missed SKC's post a few pages ago when he already posted up IPL, please disregard my last post, my bad.

 

[skc]

Edit: I totally missed SKC's post a few pages ago when he already posted up IPL, please disregard my last post, my bad.

No worries mate. Good that you've given it a bump.

If you want Kennas to log the trade feel free to make a firm call.

Personally would trade the SAR as it is above the wave A pivot low, and the fact that the overall market is looking for a pause/fall/consolidation. A couple of green days could very well trigger the more aggressive stance...and only to see the market reverse again.

 

[johnnyg]

Load me up Kennas.

When the 2nd Parcel is brought the stop for the 1st parcel will be brought to break even, and the stop for the 2nd parcel will be as marked on the chart.

 

[wayneL]

Load me up Kennas.

When the 2nd Parcel is brought the stop for the 1st parcel will be brought to break even, and the stop for the 2nd parcel will be as marked on the chart.

johnny,

You haven't explained the EW basis for the trade.

 

[johnnyg]

Whoops, The blue dotted line I would classify as an impulsive move and label it Wave 1 or A. From there there is a 3 wave correction taking the shape of an expanding flat pattern (where wave b runs past the high of wave 1 or A by a small margin, and wave c runs below the low of wave a (first red line) by a small margin. The retracement tagged the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone.

I'm dividing my 1R position into 1/2's because of where I think the market is currently at (alot of stocks show very similar price action today). I will be aggressive with the first 1/2 parcel, buying on a break of today's high with a stop under yesterdays low, and then using a SaR trigger for the 2nd 1/2 parcel which currently sits @ 2.60. When the 2nd parcel is triggered I will move my stop to break even for my first parcel, and my stop for my 2nd parcel will be @ 5.20

 

[skc]

Whoops, The blue dotted line I would classify as an impulsive move and label it Wave 1 or A. From there there is a 3 wave correction taking the shape of an expanding flat pattern (where wave b runs past the high of wave 1 or A by a small margin, and wave c runs below the low of wave a (first red line) by a small margin. The retracement tagged the 50% - 61.8% retracement zone.

I'm dividing my 1R position into 1/2's because of where I think the market is currently at (alot of stocks show very similar price action today). I will be aggressive with the first 1/2 parcel, buying on a break of today's high with a stop under yesterdays low, and then using a SaR trigger for the 2nd 1/2 parcel which currently sits @ 2.60. When the 2nd parcel is triggered I will move my stop to break even for my first parcel, and my stop for my 2nd parcel will be @ 5.20

Johnnyg, good analysis and plan. But I wonder how is this elliot wave analysis and not simple reversal swing trading? Perhaps you can zoom out a little bit and label the wave counts? cheers

 

[johnnyg]

I dunno skc, maybe it is just swing trading however for myself I use E/W to help identify possibly where abouts we are in the trend. I don't like trying to force a count on and if it doesn't stand out clearly and no other technical patterns do I just move onto the next chart.

As a minimum I'd be looking @ 6.80, if we subdivide into a 5 wave pattern prices could go a fair bit higher.

One thing I have found in my own trading is that the stop needs to be reasonably loose for trading E/W patterns, and this is something I'll go back over once a get a good sample of trades.

 

[lenny]

Here 's one for the e/w'ers and the more tradional t/a traders as well

AUN is consolidating in a w4 and also an ascending triangle and would be nice buy on a break to the upside.

ascending tri target=$1.44
w4 target=$$1.50

Only new to elliot wave so happy to corrected and or happy to have further input from more experienced e/wers

 

[kotim]

Lenny one of the things to lookat is have a look att he time the correction takes compared with the time it takes to move up from the correction low.

Generally speaking it should take less time on the way up to cross the high as distinct from how long it takes to go from high to low. It is a time over balance.,simply put waves 1,3,5 should be impulsive so they should be stronger, hence they should take less time to go up than down.

What I will say is that within the confines of any rules, always be aware that every stock has its own behaviour and is proven by those who trade it. That is why no single idea works on all stocks etc.

For eg if it takes 15 bars to correct and then 25 bars to break out, then be prepared for a false breakout and a retreat back inside the range at the very least., have a look becasue that is what I am learning from someone who has made millions and zillions from trading and they look at wave sgtructure, not necessarily strait out of the elliot book but simply the structure itself of up and down moves.

 

[johnnyg]

Stop to Break even for me on AQP. Stock is chopping back and forwards without providing much direction.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

read a report that has the USD index in a ending diagonal that could be a bullish set up.

with out the genius of Wavepicker to ask, anyone else seen, watching this if it's the case?

 

[Porper]

read a report that has the USD index in a ending diagonal that could be a bullish set up.

with out the genius of Wavepicker to ask, anyone else seen, watching this if it's the case?

Yes it is a reversal set up. Quite a nice example of an ending diagonal pattern.

Some bullish divergence would have been nice.

Although Wavepicker obviously had some problems, he did know his stuff.

WPL also has broken down from the same pattern.