The Economic Clock

[ROE]

The only clock I have is the one that tell me time.
I buy when the price is right at any time -

Financial Engineering always try to simplified investment and money products so that they can teach it
as science and human like standards and formular something they can reference in a simple way...

Pschology, greed and fear make up more than half of that so putting it into a clock or fomular can be tough -

 

[Country Lad]

Where are we on the Economic Clock I'm confused

3 o'clock........

and 7 o'clock......

and 12 o'clock.

Our economy the way it is, and the way the other economies are affecting us and the movement of commodities, I think we can safely say the clock is broken at the moment.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Buckfont]

This is the clock............:cuckoo:

 

[CanOz]

This is the clock............:cuckoo:

 

[Aussiejeff]

I think we are at 8 now.

Except...for some unknown reason, the clock has mysteriously started to run backwards towards 6 o'clock at an alarming rate. Financial market mechanics are rushing to fix the clock before a meltdown occurs...

"Tock..tick..tock..tick..."

 

[skc]

Where are we on the Economic Clock I'm confused
Real Estate prices are at the top of the boom.
Share prices are near all time high.
Yet the RBA has been cutting rates to an all-time low.

I think the clock needs different international time zones.

 

[greggles]

So where are we on the Economic Clock, and is the clock still working?

 

[willy1111]

So where are we on the Economic Clock, and is the clock still working?

View attachment 89988

A lot of lenders put up home loan rates in the last few months although the RBA rate remained unchanged. There is a lot of speculation rates will continue to rise. So maybe 1 o'clock.

Oh, after today the ASX is 12.5% down from its recent high a few months ago. So maybe it's 2 o'clock.

Oh, and with the Royal commission and APRA clamp down, it is definitely harder to get a home/investment loan, and the maximum borrowing capacity has been curtailed significantly. So maybe its 5 o'clock.

Oh and there are calls for property to drop 40%. It is reported Sydney values are off 5% and John McGrath feels they are currently off closer 10-15% they just haven't flowed through to the stats yet. So maybe it's 6 o'clock.

So maybe somewhere between 1 and 6 o'clock. Although I don't think there is quite enough doom out there in the media as yet, so maybe we are a fair way off 6 yet?

 

[greggles]

I think we're around 2 o'clock but because so many Australians are mortgaged to the hilt we haven't seen rising interest rates. The RBA knows that raising interest rates in an environment of softening real estate prices would lead to an economic disaster.

 

[Craton]

With the RBA on the upward ratchet cycle, I'm reminded of "the clock".

Seems the markets have been swinging (or trying to) between the 7 to 12 sweet spot on the clock. So, has the bubble burst and are we now at 1pm and into the start of yet another cycle?

With the RBA's raising interest rates, imperialist events offshore, food shortage/supply issues, rising energy/commodity costs and the plethora of demands on the hip pocket, it's hard to juggle but that Sell signal sure looms big and strong on the horizon.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And then I come across this quote, written by a person who says he's an optimist.

"Look at the stock market—but in terms of time, not price. The stock market goes up roughly 80%–90% of the time. There have been some big bear markets, each lasting a couple of years. But the history of our capital markets is dominated by periods where stocks go up for 10 years or more. From 1969–1982, the last inflationary period, stocks more or less went sideways, with one big bear market in 1974......

"Maybe we are setting up for 10 years of stocks going nowhere, where valuations compress, and at the end of it, when we finally revert to pro-market policies, we will be on the cusp of another great bull market. "

That's fine , apart from the high possibility it's 1973 again!