Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Which alerts would you like?

All alerts SHOULD be read with the prevailing trend.
Chart from 2006
Click to expand.


i can draw them in after also , like join the dots


how about some live alerts/e.o.d?
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Happy to accommodate any charts your interested in or would you like me to find some using the search function.

i can draw them in after also , like join the dots

The software places the alerts when they happen just as they did on the first charts.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Happy to accommodate any charts your interested in or would you like me to find some using the search function.

anyhow you wish as long as there a current item

sincerely thankyou in advance
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

anyhow you wish as long as there a current item

sincerely thankyou in advance


This is an old scan (3 days ago.) results page I'll do a new one now will take 20 min so will have a shower and be back.
 

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Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just grabbed a few without fully analysing.
These are short alerts either a 2 bar set up over yesteday and the day before or yesterday only.

MAP
MTS
MND
ORI
SWK
VMS

These are alerts so if I was to trade them I would have a trigger.
Taking MAP as an example I would sell at open and stop $2.32

Will follow this on a shorter term charts as an example.
Will post up from work.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Thanks for the link Julia, interesting.

What I was more interested in was finding out when the public interview skc referred to was actually made public, as
skc said a good fundamentalist would have picked up on the fact that the ACCC would be on CAB's tail.

I wanted to compare the price action from around the time of the interview to the price action on the 25th June when tech pointed out the VSA alert or on the 8th which was the previous most recent weakness alerts.

But apparently the interview was in 2007, which makes it all a bit pointless. I didn't really want to get into
a FA vs TA debate (again), but since it was brought up I thought why not examine the evidence? Could have
been a good learning exercise. But if the interview was 18 months to 2 years ago then the alerts from June 25 or
8th are not the relevant alerts at all which all makes it a bit inane.

The fundamentalist (and has to be a very good one) seeing that interview and any subsequent data (like how CAB increased their market share like a monopoly) will not automatically sell out. They will probably use that as an alert and be warned about potential turnaround if and when ACCC was to pounce.

The action taken by the fundamentalist is essentially the same as a T/A. Determine/investigate and recognise a signal, anticipate possible outcome, protect downside, and if staying in the stock, wait for confirmation (and keep an eye out on any ACCC press release).

The good fundamentalist knows when he/she is wrong, just like a T/A.

Granted that this seems hard work compared to a program that throws out signals based on charts. But hard work <> useless.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Follow up on MAP
 

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Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

thanks for your time on them tech/a

will have a proper look over the weekend

cheers
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just grabbed a few without fully analysing.
These are short alerts either a 2 bar set up over yesteday and the day before or yesterday only.

MAP
MTS
MND
ORI
SWK
VMS

These are alerts so if I was to trade them I would have a trigger.
Taking MAP as an example I would sell at open and stop $2.32

Will follow this on a shorter term charts as an example.
Will post up from work.

Just had a look at all of these again.

EVERYONE of them are lower than they were when I posted the alert.
Nun Hope this is helpful.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just had a look at all of these again.

EVERYONE of them are lower than they were when I posted the alert.
Nun Hope this is helpful.


holds MTS ..... no concerns TO ME actually until it breaks its long term channel ...... tis a warchest for me , held and added for years , enjoy the franked divvies


MAP actually a tad higher than when posted but not here to argue calls was mainly intrested in the live scans

again i thank you for your time on the matter and apologise for not returning the courtesy by replying sooner or with a deeper analysis on those posted
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

MTS ?

Am I looking at the same chart as you?
I see bugger all.

Very flat and boring.
But if you can make a $ out of that then you can make a $ out of most anything!

Hang on back 2001 ish!!

Ahh now I see.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

MTS ?

Am I looking at the same chart as you?
I see bugger all.

Very flat and boring.
But if you can make a $ out of that then you can make a $ out of most anything!


hell yeah .very flat .very boring , very tradeable channel 380 -430 ish

repeats tho this is a warchest stock for me , sits there nice and mellow , collecting divvies ...... CURRENTLY overall on average entrys sitting on 45% gain....... may not be a great return from holding over 5 years from first parcel purchased but when you add lil things like fully franked divvies year in year out it kinda adds up :D

definately NOT everyones cup of tea

i do trade plenty others for volatility / larger moves as posted here so not really just an ole nanna ALL the time :D


lol i even trade stuff like nasty old LKO for kicks at times

just saying MTS is an investment stock FOR ME , happy to be slow and steady with it
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just had a look at all of these again.

EVERYONE of them are lower than they were when I posted the alert.
Nun Hope this is helpful.
Pretty much the whole market has fallen during this period.
Therefore it's a bit hard to see that there's anything special about shorting these.
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Pretty much the whole market has fallen during this period.
Therefore it's a bit hard to see that there's anything special about shorting these.


MAP has actually risen and more than likely any short trade entered on that date would have been stopped out by now ....but thats a side issue

i havent looked at the others except MTS ( my laziness)

was intrested in the scans originally

but yes do agree re market falling and hardly rocket science

but do appreciate the time spent on it
 
Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Pretty much the whole market has fallen during this period.
Therefore it's a bit hard to see that there's anything special about shorting these.

Julia.

Nun asked for realtime examples these were what I pulled up within a few hrs.
Nothing special about those chosen-- just making the point of being on the right side of the market.
Short right now is the right side of the market.
 
Sorry to bring back this ancient thread but I have recieved a few comments on my post's like: Why bother crunching numbers?, It's all priced in the sp just follow the trend.....

Now first let me state I am not arguing against technical analysis but explaining why I prefer Fundamental Analysis for my money.

"Graham's favorite allegory is that of Mr. Market, a fellow who turns up every day at the stock holder's door offering to buy or sell his shares at a different price. Often, the price quoted by Mr. Market seems plausible, but often it is ridiculous. The investor is free to either agree with his quoted price and trade with him, or to ignore him completely. Mr. Market doesn't mind this, and will be back the following day to quote another price. The point is that the investor should not regard the whims of Mr. Market as determining the value of the shares that the investor owns. He should profit from market folly rather than participate in it. The investor is best off concentrating on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends, rather than being too concerned with Mr. Market's often irrational behavior."

Ok if you doubt the Mr Market allegory explain to me how CBA sp has fluctuated between $60.00 and $47.05 YTD.

The underlying business has not changed that much. Does Europe debt crisis and American recession really impact CBA's long term profitability?


"Graham wrote that the owner of equity stocks should regard them first and foremost as conferring part ownership of a business. With that perspective in mind, the stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price). "

This is where it gets exciting, we know if we own part of a great business and that business by definition is delivering increasing profits the share price will eventually follow.

Now to really turbo charge your returns concentrate only on the top 1-2% quality companies and only buy them when they are under valued.
:2twocents
 
Ok if you doubt the Mr Market allegory explain to me how CBA sp has fluctuated between $60.00 and $47.05 YTD.

The underlying business has not changed that much. Does Europe debt crisis and American recession really impact CBA's long term profitability?
Robusta, what you're failing to 'get' is that those of us who follow price action don't give a stuff why CBA has fluctuated as you describe above.

If you're so determined to dismiss trend following or TA in general, then you will never be prepared to consider any approach other than the basic FA you are presently employing.

I honestly don't care what Graham or Buffet ever said. That style of investing is simply not the only - or even necessarily the best - way.
 
Ok if you doubt the Mr Market allegory explain to me how CBA sp has fluctuated between $60.00 and $47.05 YTD.

Easy.

Bull markets generate alpha. i.e. Correlations across asset classes are low. A rising tide doesn't lift all boats, but it allows good boats to navigate their way out of the harbour.

Bear markets are low alpha, high beta. Correlations across asset classes are very high and the movements are very volatile.

We are currently in a large bear market, ergo CBA price is affected by the rumblings of EURUSD and the overnight close in SP500.
 
Robusta, what you're failing to 'get' is that those of us who follow price action don't give a stuff why CBA has fluctuated as you describe above.

If you're so determined to dismiss trend following or TA in general, then you will never be prepared to consider any approach other than the basic FA you are presently employing.

I honestly don't care what Graham or Buffet ever said. That style of investing is simply not the only - or even necessarily the best - way.

Julia what you are failing to 'get' is I am not dismissing trend folllowing or TA in general I have stated I believe it is a valid investment option.

The CBA example is to explain how value investing can take advantage of marker irrationality and fluctuations.

Maybe this is not the best medium to comminicate on I have only ever stated for MY money I am the most comfortable following Graham, Buffet et al.

If we never had a difference of opinion how would we ever learn anything?

I stick by my arguement that my 'that' style of investing is the best and further more would love to be proved wrong - would you?
 
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