PAV Technical Analysis and Trades

[pavilion103]

Life happens

Yeh the good thing about trading is that it isn't a 9-5 job.
I don't have to turn up any day, or even week.
If trading well the profits sustain me.
And the bonus is that most of my trades come in the first hour, and then I can sit back and either set an alert of let it run overnight if I want.
Great flexibility to give me the opportunity to work on other things!

 

[pavilion103]

@tech/a

I remember a decade ago (yeh, it's been that long), when I was starting out and nothing made sense. Everything that seemed like it should work didn't. I remember when it finally clicked. I owe much of that to your guidance.
I paper traded 4 years without a cent in the markets!!! (I don't know how I managed that).
I read about 30 books, I studied Wyckoff.
VSA made the most sense to me despite some of the haters on this thread.
And now it's happy days!

I'll scale up within reason (maybe 3 times size what I'm trading now) over the next 6-12 months and that will be more than I need!

 

[Roller_1]

Both.
First I identify key levels.
Then I observe how price reacts at those levels.

Levels are of utmost importance. A good setup at a level that doesn't make sense can lose a lot of money over time.
It doesn't have to be exact, but I want it to be around an area that makes sense!

Thanks Pav. i've been lurking on the thread while i am doing paper trading mainly on the Nikkei but also on the 6A recently. similar style to you, hopefully heading in the right direction with my trading!

 

[pavilion103]

Another win last night. It's been a great week.
The initial risk was larger than I'd like in that spot - 13 points, but rangers are larger right now.
I only took 10 contracts rather than the usual 20 because the downtrend is over extended and I wasn't 100% confident on the direction.
I exited because the downtrend on the daily is already overextended and the US market looked like it was struggling to push down.
Happy to pocket the profit.

I like these setups near open. If it pushes down, rather than chase it with a wide stop, I wait for it to push up and fail and then I short it below the low of the failure with my stop above the high! Had this been a 9 point risk, or if it wasn't so extended to the downside already, I would have taken my usual 20 contracts.

 

[pavilion103]

This week has been win after win.
Much easier when such a tend occurs.
Need to capitalize on it.
It won't always go so well!

 

[pavilion103]

Is the FTSE finding a bit of temporary support?

 

[pavilion103]

Tonight's trades. 2 x 10 contracts.
Risk is currently down to 10 points with 1st trade stop moved to BE.
The question is, do I let this run?
There is big news out in the US in a few hours with unemployment and non-farm payrolls. I'm less likely to want to hold during news which can move the market.

But IF this is a support base and I hold there is good R/R for a decent move up.
Tough decision...

Edit: trade now 28+37 = 65 points.

 

[pavilion103]

Sold for +36 points total.
I don’t want to hold a long position over the weekend so I decided to close it.

 

[pavilion103]

Well this is annoying…
Why does it never work out well when I go against my instincts ?
The R/R for a good move over 2-3 days in this spot is just so good!
I sold out for 36 points!
Didn’t want to hold over weekend but, I’m wondering how I’ll look back on this.

I guess we’ll see how it pans out.

 

[pavilion103]

I feel like my best strategy at times is:
Place trade
Adjust stops
Turn off phone so that I can’t change my mind!

 

[frugal.rock]

Well, to be fair on yourself, you don't want to be in the market in front of announcements.
That was part of your trade plan, right?!

It's a shrug the shoulders moment.
It could have easily been the other way round, ponder that for a moment...

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I feel like my best strategy at times is:
Place trade
Adjust stops
Turn off phone so that I can’t change my mind!

Just wait until the next trade where you think it's a runner and turns and eats your stop before you even get the chance to adjust it.

Then you'll feel like your best strategy is whatever you did today.

The joys of trying to apply daily+ timeframe thinking (where trends have a chance to develop amongst the noise) to intraday trades.

 

[pavilion103]

Well, to be fair on yourself, you don't want to be in the market in front of announcements.
That was part of your trade plan, right?!

It's a shrug the shoulders moment.
It could have easily been the other way round, ponder that for a moment...

Yeh, the emotions of trading…

I had reason to not want to be in it over the weekend too.

Price fell sharply after it shot up.

That post of mine was a good example of emotions!!

 

[pavilion103]

Just wait until the next trade where you think it's a runner and turns and eats your stop before you even get the chance to adjust it.

Then you'll feel like your best strategy is whatever you did today.

The joys of trying to apply daily+ timeframe thinking (where trends have a chance to develop amongst the noise) to intraday trades.

Yeh.

Amazing how price falls sharply overnight from after it shot up, and all of a sudden I don’t feel so bad ?

A hold from where I was would have been a bit of a hit and hope. Waiting for a base to form is best.

The momentum is still down obviously!

Next week will be interesting…

 

[pavilion103]

These levels are the toughest for me when the momentum is still down but the move is so extended without much relief.

After the rejection of the upside last night, for now it will be looking for intraday shorts until something changes.

 

[pavilion103]

This is good.

 

[pavilion103]

Not trading this evening.
US public holiday and don’t expect the EU markets to be too exciting.
Not in a great spot anyway on charts.
Back tomorrow!

 

[pavilion103]

FTSE has pushed up as I anticipated last week.
I’m a bit annoyed that I didn’t trade last night because I had identified the area where it found support as a good buy.

I am waiting to see how price plays out now.

 

[pavilion103]

I lost 10 points last night.

I had some positions on the FTSE and the DAX. I got out of the DAX at break even.

FTSE I wanted to hold but the price action was just too choppy. I probably did well in the end to come away with a small loss.

Had I left my original trade, I would be up around 90 points now, which is huge. But given that it did not move straight away, they would certainly have been an element of gambling to that, and that’s not how I want to trade.

It’s always encouraging to be able to identify the direction of the moves even if on nights like last night I don’t come away with any profit.

 

[pavilion103]

Just the one trade this evening, on the DAX.
Really tricky to know where to exit because we are really in a bit of a kangaroo market right now.
I took one off before the Euro GDP announcement to pocket $430.
Stop to other position to BE.