Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis

[nunthewiser]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just for clarity/definition sake, if the alert came up at the close on the 25th then that would not be hindsight?

but would have anyone taken any notice of the alert on that date , that action on that day no different in vols or ranges to many other points on that cab chart in the past where it has risen or continued sideways .. all im saying is how easy it is for one to point out something is wrong AFTER it has actually happened , i didnt see any one mentioning alerts previous to the falls

just wondering why

 

[moXJO]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Trade management is probably the more important. But for my hindsight call

It broke the trend and it failed to get back on. Also possible down tri. Some other indicators were looking sus. Also sup/res line at roughly 6.70 broken then tested and failed. I know its hindsight but I don't think that was a long trade in the making. If you could pick that drop or not probably depends on if you believe that was a down tri and trusted yourself to get on when it broke down. I'm sure everyone else saw something different with more complicated tools then I.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Just for clarity/definition sake, if the alert came up at the close on the 25th then that would not be hindsight?

but would have anyone taken any notice of the alert on that date , that action on that day no different in vols or ranges to many other points on that cab chart in the past where it has risen or continued sideways .. all im saying is how easy it is for one to point out something is wrong AFTER it has actually happened , i didnt see any one mentioning alerts previous to the falls

just wondering why

Here is the dialog box for the earlier weakness Timmy. The alert after it is a "Trap Upmove"

Nun- the signals do happen live, they are NOT buy/sell signals, at most they are confirmation, anyone that knows VSA/Wyckoff will know what the signal will be before it appears, could have easily seen that on the 25th was going to be no demand before it closed, I personally don't make any decisions based JUST off the signals, they are just ALERTS, thats all they do, alert you that something might be up....or down in this case you can tell what the alert is going to say before it appears if you know what to look for

I too, would be interested to see a funnys point of view.

 

[skc]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

I suppose an example of a fundamentalist pointing this out would be conclusive. Tech has posted the example of T/A actually pointing it out.

If a fundamentalist doesn't know this it is not because the information doesn't exist, but that he/she didn't look hard enough.

The fundamentalist has no chance of predicting when ACCC will serve them notice. But they will either avoid CAB due to this concern, or they will sell soon as they know about the news.

And guess who did the selling when the news first came out? It was the fundamentalist who saw the news on the ACCC website!

I am not discounting technical analysis and whether it could have been useful in this instance. Chances are some technical analyst would react to the signal the day before, and some wouldn't.

All I am saying is a "good fundamentalist" could have arrived at the same conclusion by hitting sell as soon as they saw the news.

A side note. In normal situation, CAB would go into a halt with an announcement that ACCC is on their back. Prices would gap down and right through any stops. In this particular instance, CAB didn't open the ACCC letter for another 3 hours, so normal trading took place even when ACCC released the news on their end. Allowing the nimble fundamentalist or technical analyst to get out.

 

[Timmy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Thanks for posting that info Sam.

 

[Timmy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

In a public interview, CEO mentioned that they install their own meters below cost so competitors can't get theirs in.

skc - can you recall or find out the date of that interview? Be useful to look at price activity immediately following the CEO placing his foot into his mouth.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Ahhhhh the master of non-sequitur strikes again.

The something not quite right may have resulted in further sideways action.

Look! VSA adds another dimension to analysis, maybe it gives an edge... I'm sure it does, but picking an extraordinary example like that is what option course marketers do. In isolation, it's total BS.

That's not a criticism of the software at all, I'm certain it's quite good, but that signal must be taken in context with another 999 or so identical signals.

It didnt pick up something was wrong, its mearly indicated a neutral situation. You said you wouldnt place a long with that bar, fair enough. But would you have placed a short?

If you were trading CAB using an EOD chart and you were looking for short trades then chances are that youd have been short from confirmation of the Upthrust alert.
You could have added to the position with the trade parameters I had suggested on the chart.
Complicate it as much as you like--its pretty basic analysis.
Could have gone sideways,could have gone up,but it went down as the analysis indicated. Both the first and the second alerts.

If you werent watching CAB with a view of going short or already short--then youd have missed it like 99.99% of the world.
Just answered the question thats all.

 

[skc]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

skc - can you recall or find out the date of that interview? Be useful to look at price activity immediately following the CEO placing his foot into his mouth.

I have no idea when the interview was. But it's back in 2007 as indicated by this news report.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/cabcharge-accused-over-market-power-20090626-d00o.html

 

[beamstas]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

I love Scott Barlows interview in radges book. He destroys TA vs FA.

 

[Mad Mel]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Thanks Mrs. Mallins, we need a defender of the language around here! I'm a stickler for correct grammer, pronunciation and spelling as well...even if my own transgressions are all too common.

I hope you don't mind me pointing out that "arithmatic" is spelt arithmetic.

And "grammer" is spelled "grammar". And "spelt" is spelled "spelled".

Oh the ironing.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

And "grammer" is spelled "grammar". And "spelt" is spelled "spelled".

Oh the ironing.

......and you're not supposed to start a sentence with And.

 

[Mad Mel]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

heh, touche.

And.... trying.... desperately to fill up one hundred characters....

 

[Mr J]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

And "grammer" is spelled "grammar". And "spelt" is spelled "spelled".

Oh the ironing.

He had already protected himself by admitting he was a regular violator.

And.... trying.... desperately to fill up one hundred characters....

This would explain your use of 'ironing' instead of 'irony' :.

 

[Julia]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

skc - can you recall or find out the date of that interview? Be useful to look at price activity immediately following the CEO placing his foot into his mouth.

Interesting account here of how it all went down.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Cabcharge-pd20090701-TJB4K?OpenDocument&src=kgb

......and you're not supposed to start a sentence with And.

Sam, strictly speaking that's true. But it's something that has become pretty much acceptable on the basis of it reflecting how we speak, i.e. denoting a pause between one statement and another which is related.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Interesting account here of how it all went down.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Cabcharge-pd20090701-TJB4K?OpenDocument&src=kgb


Sam, strictly speaking that's true. But it's something that has become pretty much acceptable on the basis of it reflecting how we speak, i.e. denoting a pause between one statement and another which is related.

Haha, yeah I know I was just keeping the ball rolling as far as picking on each others spelling and grammar. : I do it myself most of the time!

 

[skc]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

He had already protected himself by admitting he was a regular violator.



This would explain your use of 'ironing' instead of 'irony' :.

Open up your mind, Mr J. He was simply posting this in front of a pile of ironing to be done tonight.

 

[skc]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Interesting account here of how it all went down.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Cabcharge-pd20090701-TJB4K?OpenDocument&src=kgb

Thanks Julia. Very interesting article. A couple of sentences of note:

Meanwhile, an hour after the process server served the Cabcharge statement of claim, the ACCC put a press release on their website. Soon after an observant trader saw the announcement, realised the significance and began selling Cabcharge shares heavily.

Definitely not a technical trader who saw the news!

Maybe a phone call alerting the company would have been a good idea and in practice that probably happens. But in the case of Cabcharge, there is no secret that there is a history of bad blood between the two organisations.

And there is a history there for anyone following the company closely.

On the Friday morning, Cabcharge was trading as high as $6.47 and plunged as low as $5.36. There is a clear case for those transactions to be reversed. Release of the information saw the stock fall even further.

I sincerely hope not! This will punish any people with proper stop loss in place.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

And "spelt" is spelled "spelled".

Both are correct. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/spelt

 

[Timmy]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Interesting account here of how it all went down.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Cabcharge-pd20090701-TJB4K?OpenDocument&src=kgb

Thanks for the link Julia, interesting.

What I was more interested in was finding out when the public interview skc referred to was actually made public, as
skc said a good fundamentalist would have picked up on the fact that the ACCC would be on CAB's tail.

I wanted to compare the price action from around the time of the interview to the price action on the 25th June when tech pointed out the VSA alert or on the 8th which was the previous most recent weakness alerts.

But apparently the interview was in 2007, which makes it all a bit pointless. I didn't really want to get into
a FA vs TA debate (again), but since it was brought up I thought why not examine the evidence? Could have
been a good learning exercise. But if the interview was 18 months to 2 years ago then the alerts from June 25 or
8th are not the relevant alerts at all which all makes it a bit inane.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis

Which alerts would you like?

All alerts SHOULD be read with the prevailing trend.
Chart from 2006
Click to expand.