TAP - Tap Oil

[rub92me]

Great announcement out today - TAP acquiring 40% rights in underexplored prospective acreage in Brunei. Now all we need is some decent testing results from Maitland 2 in October, the price of oil staying high and the market in general not tanking and it's all looking rosy again!

 

[rub92me]

Looks like it is breaking out today; trading above 2.18 for the first time in more than a year on high volume. Some more good announcements in the past week on forward gas sales seems to have given some confidence. One of the major shareholders has been selling down over the past months though.
Also expecting some more news on the Philippines 3D seismic results soon which will give us a better idea of what targets they managed to identify there...

 

[rub92me]

High volume for 3 days in a row and climbed to around 2.30 now after the breakout. Lots of bot buying going on and especially today plenty of big parcels (>100k shares) changing hands. Expect to see some changes in significant holders soon.

 

[sfx]

A few institutions selling down on this one - UBS being one of the bigger ones...

I hope this doesn't signal any future bad news that the fund managers 'know' about. Probably just regular fund adjustments and shifting of funds ?!?

Comments?!

 

[hector]

A few institutions selling down on this one - UBS being one of the bigger ones...

I hope this doesn't signal any future bad news that the fund managers 'know' about. Probably just regular fund adjustments and shifting of funds ?!?

Comments?!

I read in The Advertiser that profit taking was occurring this week with oil stocks despite the rising oil price. I don't understand a lot of things in the market and I can't explain that either.

I see a rising share price, a present retracement, and continue to hold with an expectation of a future rise. If I'm proved wrong - then I'll sell.

 

[sfx]

I read in The Advertiser that profit taking was occurring this week with oil stocks despite the rising oil price. I don't understand a lot of things in the market and I can't explain that either.

I see a rising share price, a present retracement, and continue to hold with an expectation of a future rise. If I'm proved wrong - then I'll sell.

Yeah a bit of profit taking by the insto's.

However, on the back of a market drop, TAP too suffered a big dive today down 0.18 cents to $2.27.

 

[rub92me]

TAP keeping its ground due to high oil prices perhaps. Yesterday saw quite a high volume sell off once it threatened to break out past 2.60, but found support again today. I'm keeping mine unless it looks like support around 2.30 won't hold. UBS must have pretty much sold out by now, and TAP are unhedged so high oil prices more than offset the strong AUD for now.

 

[michael_selway]

TAP keeping its ground due to high oil prices perhaps. Yesterday saw quite a high volume sell off once it threatened to break out past 2.60, but found support again today. I'm keeping mine unless it looks like support around 2.30 won't hold. UBS must have pretty much sold out by now, and TAP are unhedged so high oil prices more than offset the strong AUD for now.

Hi it looks quite expensive still

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 0.5 2.7 7.3 8.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[rub92me]

Hi it looks quite expensive still

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 0.5 2.7 7.3 8.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

If you use EPS as the main/only measure of value for Oil Producers & Explorers then maybe it looks quite expensive. Imho that's not a very useful way of assessing the value though...More important to me are debt levels (none), share dilution (none, in fact they've bought back shares), exploration targets, etc.

 

[doctorj]

Using EPS to value an explorer is like using the colour the sky to estimate the temperature. It doesn't follow...

Better off looking at 2p reserves and cash.

TAP has about $100m in cash from memory. Plus more 2p reserves are potentially on the way assuming success at Maitland.

 

[rub92me]

Recovered nicely today from the slightly disappointing news from Woollybutt 6. Still, there's bigger fish to fry for TAP in the future according to their presentations. Hopefully at least one of these will be a success, they haven't had the best of luck in the past 2 years.

 

[sfx]

Recovered nicely today from the slightly disappointing news from Woollybutt 6. Still, there's bigger fish to fry for TAP in the future according to their presentations. Hopefully at least one of these will be a success, they haven't had the best of luck in the past 2 years.

Indeed - the SP has increased and stayed somewhat more steadier than other oil shares (esp AED).

I was looking through their announcements etc, and was wondering of what upside is due for announcement?! Can anyone elaborate?

I expect this one to sky rocket, as I've sold out of it. Its wise investment strategy to bet against me.... hehehee

 

[tronic72]

Indeed - the SP has increased and stayed somewhat more steadier than other oil shares (esp AED).

I was looking through their announcements etc, and was wondering of what upside is due for announcement?! Can anyone elaborate?

I expect this one to sky rocket, as I've sold out of it. Its wise investment strategy to bet against me.... hehehee

Tap is currently overpriced IMHO. It's a well run but small company. I had it a while ago at 1.60 where it sat for ages. I think it will go down before it goes up as it's already had a decent run.

 

[rub92me]

Tap is currently overpriced IMHO. It's a well run but small company. I had it a while ago at 1.60 where it sat for ages. I think it will go down before it goes up as it's already had a decent run.

Overpriced based on what? They have 3 potential 'company changers' lined up for the next 6-12 months that could double or treble their gas and oil reserves. It has had a decent run and it's currently consolidating. Don't know where it will go in the near future, but still has enough potential upside for me to hold for a while.

 

[RichKid]

Below is an extract from the marketing email Fat Prophets (Mining) send around, it is from today's email- 28 November 2007.

I'm trying to ID if this is TAP or another stock. FPM often entice the market by providing clues, probably to get more people on to a stock that their subscribers are already riding. I don't hold TAP atm but it's a stock that's been on my watchlist over the years.

TAP is a stock that's been in the FPM portfolio before so I wont be surprised if it is the one described below, I have also found part of an old review which confirms some of the details, might need updating though. I have looked at ARQ, AWE and OSH but their sp figures don't match the dates given below. If this is another co let me know and I'll shift it to that thread. I currently view this pattern in TAP as a consolidation pattern with distribution currently taking place according to the price/volume data.

In EW terms it appears to be a w4 in the short term- often typified by sideways consolidations into rectangular or triangular formations, as we have here (depends on the count you prefer from the two I have below and on how prices travel over the next few weeks).

No Other Oil Company Offers A Better Potential Pay-Off size

Then there's oil. With the oil price hovering around the US$100 a barrel mark, we are constantly on the look-out for excellent quality oil stocks to recommend to our Fat Prophets Members.

We think we've recently found almost the perfect Australian oil company that will be able to prosper from both the strong oil price and its ongoing aggressive exploration budget.

In our most recent report to Fat Prophets Members, we said…

"In our view, no other oil company offers Members the potential pay-off…should it hit the jackpot with its exploration and development well-drilling program."

"With such as aggressive exploration program supported by a strong balance sheet, and the added spice of possible corporate activity, we believe the prospects for (this company) are better than they have been for many years."

From a charting perspective, we said…

"Given the clear revival in longer-term upward momentum, we believe the company retains the potential for further gains in the coming months."

We concluded our report by recommending our Members BUY the shares at around $2.42*.

Even though that recommendation was rushed to Members 2 weeks ago, the good news is that today the shares still trade around the $2.40* level

That means people who sign up today to become a new Fat Prophets Member can buy the shares at the same level we were happy to recommend them as a BUY 2 weeks ago.

That sort of opportunity doesn't come along very often.

From ETrade (googled) https://www.etradeaustralia.com.au/...ophets.asp?Page=DOG&Issue=Cattle+Dog,+Fat+262

Issue Date 27/07/2007
Back Issues
Dog of the Week

Issue Date 18/01/2006
Back Issues
Tap Oil - The Cattle Dog (Running Now and Will Run All Day).

Tap Oil (TAP) has established a solid production base on Western Australia's North West Shelf and is looking to expand its exploration and production interests in New Zealand. The company is a high quality mid-cap oil producer, with an enviable track record of profitability and exploration success. Tap has aggressive exploration activities in place, comprising an extensive well-drilling program that is aimed at significantly increasing its reserves position.

Financially, the company is generating strong cash flow from robust oil prices, maintains a cash position of close to $100 million and has no debt. Adding to the bullish outlook is the fact that Tap is highly leveraged to the oil price with minimal hedging in place. With investors having significant exploration exposure through its drilling program, upside potential remains.

The charts attached below give an idea of the trends and patterns from my perspective. I have not added all the trend or channel markings as it'll clutter up the chart. Note the buyer support gap or cushion between the current pattern and previous resistance circa 2.15/2.20.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gone a bit quiet in here, time to revisit the technicals?
The weekly chart seems to be forming a double bottom with higher lows of the last 3 weeks now, also bouncing off previous support levels.
Pos - $100m cash, t/o potential?
Neg - production problem sorted yet?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Mmmm..... must only be me noticing something odd happening with TAP the last 2 days. Are we to be finally rewarded with a takeover?

 

[rub92me]

Mmmm..... must only be me noticing something odd happening with TAP the last 2 days. Are we to be finally rewarded with a takeover?

Have been out of this for a while, but still on the watchlist. The upmove is on low volume, but it is a bit strange as they haven't reported yet that the production problems have been resolved. Maybe worth another bite.

 

[rub92me]

TAP has not benefited much from the rise in oil price due to ongoing problems with their oil production on Woollybutt. The recent gas explosion at Varanus may also impact revenues in the short term and not sure to what extent they are covered by insurance. On the positive side, Woollybutt production is about to recommence with increased production from the South lobe, and we should be hearing any day now about the huge Marley gas prospect. If the latter is positive I may jump on.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

TAP ..... price running into a v-bottom, with a hammer and
rising volume over the past couple of sessions, ahead of
2 positive time cycles expected around mid-week .....

..... hopefully some positive news will be enough to lift
TAP off its lows ...

Updated TAP chart, below.

have a great day

paul



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