TAP - Tap Oil

[rub92me]

Looks like not too many people are buying in to this takeover rumour. I don't think the TAP directors are too keen on a takeover anyway. But at the end of the day money talks and everything has a price.

 

[hangseng]

Looks like not too many people are buying in to this takeover rumour. I don't think the TAP directors are too keen on a takeover anyway. But at the end of the day money talks and everything has a price.

This is no rumour, look at last Saturdays West Australian.

This is beginning to look very interesting and enough so for me to venture outside my comfort zone of base metal stocks. Read the Fat Prohets report on TAP and then the above headline article in the business section.

Ex Alinta directors financed by Poynton already have aquired 5% of TAP stock and they are now supported by Macquarie.

Get ready for the long awaited 'rumour' of takeover to become, at the very least, an attempt at doing so.

 

[rub92me]

This is no rumour, look at last Saturdays West Australian.

This is beginning to look very interesting and enough so for me to venture outside my comfort zone of base metal stocks. Read the Fat Prohets report on TAP and then the above headline article in the business section.

Ex Alinta directors financed by Poynton already have aquired 5% of TAP stock and they are now supported by Macquarie.

Get ready for the long awaited 'rumour' of takeover to become, at the very least, an attempt at doing so.

I have looked at the article. You think journalists don't make stuff up occasionally or 'stretch' the facts a little??
1) Until Poynton et al actually tell us how much shares they've bought or it is evident from the share register, it is a rumour, not a fact how many shares they bought.
2) Even if they have bought close to 5%, until they tell us what their intention is, it is a rumour, not a fact that they are planning a takeover.
Doesn't mean it won't happen, just means it has not happened yet and maybe will not happen at all.

 

[hangseng]

I have looked at the article. You think journalists don't make stuff up occasionally or 'stretch' the facts a little??
1) Until Poynton et al actually tell us how much shares they've bought or it is evident from the share register, it is a rumour, not a fact how many shares they bought.
2) Even if they have bought close to 5%, until they tell us what their intention is, it is a rumour, not a fact that they are planning a takeover.
Doesn't mean it won't happen, just means it has not happened yet and maybe will not happen at all.

Keep reading, more in the West again, this is getting serious and not in a friendly way. They are making their intentions known and TAP board is resisting. Underwood is fighting this in public but Poynton and Macquarie have the money and are buying loads of shares.

Public streetfight seems imminent the way the talking between Poynton and Underwood is heading.

I for one am looking forward to this. Of course along with it I am hoping for a re-rating of the share price.

 

[rub92me]

Well, from TAP's response it appears that they don't want any of it. So unless they'll buy another 70 million shares, they're not going to get anywhere in a hurry...

 

[rub92me]

Strong rebound today after a bit of a slide the past week. My theory is that the Poynton posse probably sold off their 5 million shares late last week and this week after their half-baked attempt at a coup which temporarily stopped the upward trend. I liked the strong close today, which sets up things nicely for next week. Strong oil prices probably don't hurt either :

 

[hangseng]

Strong rebound today after a bit of a slide the past week. My theory is that the Poynton posse probably sold off their 5 million shares late last week and this week after their half-baked attempt at a coup which temporarily stopped the upward trend. I liked the strong close today, which sets up things nicely for next week. Strong oil prices probably don't hurt either :

You may be right.

Tap is quickly increasing after 2 strong trading days and looks like going a lot further. With the recent and forecast increase in oil prices Tap is looking very good indeed.

 

[Peakey]

I've had TAP in the watchlist for the last month or so....... (not holding).

A couple of things on the chart I noticed were:

Looks very much like a Weinstein setup, heading out of Stage 1 into Stage 2.

TAP is in a sector were alot of the oilers are doing well, price of oil is also helping.

TechTrader has multiple buy signals (green arrows on chart) over the last 6 weeks.

Broken resistance at 1.70ish.

Closed the last 3 trading sessions on the daily high on increasing volume.

180 day moving average is starting to turn upwards.

Looks bullish....

Good luck to those that are already in this one. I may be joining you soon, (kiss of death here I come , don't say I didn't warn you.)

Cheers
Peakey

 

[hangseng]

I've had TAP in the watchlist for the last month or so....... (not holding).

A couple of things on the chart I noticed were:

Looks very much like a Weinstein setup, heading out of Stage 1 into Stage 2.

TAP is in a sector were alot of the oilers are doing well, price of oil is also helping.

TechTrader has multiple buy signals (green arrows on chart) over the last 6 weeks.

Broken resistance at 1.70ish.

Closed the last 3 trading sessions on the daily high on increasing volume.

180 day moving average is starting to turn upwards.

Looks bullish....

Good luck to those that are already in this one. I may be joining you soon, (kiss of death here I come , don't say I didn't warn you.)

Cheers
Peakey

Loved watching the trading today especially the closing 15 minutes. TAP is about to break strongly upward according to all chart indicators and physical trading action. I got in at $1.87 so I am very happy with this action.

I really hope you theory is correct, TAP could head well over $2.50 again. I would love it to be what it is worth fundamentally, well over $3.00.

 

[rub92me]

Looks to be hitting a bit of a brick wall at 1.94 - 1.95 again though and volume has dropped off today. Maybe the next attempt will get through? If so this area should become good support.
Oops! looks like it has finally broken through now!

 

[chrisdedavid]

Good time to disregard the chart and research the company.
Find out why they have increased in value and if they will continue to do this, and maybe plan for other profitable endeavours.

I think the chart alone = gamble

 

[rub92me]

I have researched the company and know about their plans. Whether these plans will come to fruition remains to be seen. Oil & gas exploration is a bit of a hit and miss business. So relying on fundamental research would equally be a gamble, i.e. you're betting on a reasonable success rate of the planned explorations.

 

[Sean K]

Probably due for some more consolidation around these levels, but with this momentum looks likely to keep going IMO. Could be a breakaway gap from $2.00 to $2.05 last week...

Any funnymentals worth mentioning here? Where's the upside comming from?

Fat Prophets put a 'BUY' on this at $1.87 recently, but their initial buy was ages ago at $2.72. Not one of their better calls.

Volume pretty encouraging.

 

[stefoid]

did you read the recomendation? its pretty much all there. plus the oil price heading north doesnt hurt an unhedged producer, either.

 

[Go Nuke]

Can someone please correct me if I'm wrong but does this look something like a Head and Shoulders formation?

It looks a little out, but i believe it is one.

Cheers
GN

 

[Rainmaker2000]

I've scoped TAP out for years and owned it off and on....I've always wondered why its price goes round like a yo yo..which I benefited from..I suspected there were many 'technical' investors on board...after seeing all these posts, its pretty much confirmed..hehe.......Anyway, especially the chartists would want to know that this is a dirt cheap, unloved company which has always refused to pay a dividend or buy back its stock substantially...... no doubt its a takeover target sometime with the secret trinkets of the company being is years of unused franking credits which can be used to placate any resisting shareholders.......If it has one decent oil find, that would rerate it as well

 

[Sean K]

Can someone please correct me if I'm wrong but does this look something like a Head and Shoulders formation?

It looks a little out, but i believe it is one.

Cheers
GN

GN, technically, yes, it is a H&S but as you say a little crooked. Still qualifies though. I'd say a pretty low probability of that panning out though unless POO gets smashed and the markets really crash. Support between 1.40-60 looks pretty strong.

 

[The Mint Man]

Hey guys,
I posted the following in the OSH thread but I think that this would be of interest to you as well because TAP was mentioned/shown on the programe.

If you missed Lateline Business last night then you will want to watch it here http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r184144_683326.asx
OSH was the lead story, first up and got quite a wrap... very good exposure I think I will be holding on for the ride somehow
Just so you know, the link above is for broadband, windows media player.

If your not the video type though I have supplied the transcript below

Shares in Oil Search surge​

Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Broadcast: 17/09/2007
Reporter: Neal Woolrich

Rumours of Chinese interest in another Australian resources company have seen its shares soar today.

Transcript
ANDREW ROBERTSON: Rumours of another Chinese interest in Australian resources companies have seen shares in Oil Search soar today. The company rose nearly 12 per cent on reports it could be the target of a $6 billion takeover from a Beijing-backed energy giant. Oil Search denied the claims, but analysts say the company's proven reserves could make it very attractive. Neal Woolrich reports.

NEAL WOOLRICH: The ink is barely dry on Woodside's $35 billion gas sale to China and now the economic powerhouse is rumoured to have another Australian energy source in its sights. Newspaper reports say the China National Petroleum Corporation and Petro China are considering a $5.9-billion bid for Oil Search. The company says it's had no formal takeover approach from any party, but analysts argue that Oil Search would make an attractive target.

HOWARD ELTON, INERSUISEE: A number of oil and gas companies would be looking at Oil Search as a company that has got some substantial reserves and that is worth doing some real in depth research.

CARLO CAIANI, CAIANI & CO: It's a very good mid-sized oil and gas asset. BHP Billiton, among others, had been looking at it for a while. We're surprised actually it hasn't gone before. It's got production at about 10.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.

NEAL WOOLRICH: The takeover rumours sent Oil Search's share price climbing by 11.5 per cent, and helped Tap Oil gain 5 per cent, and AED more than 3 per cent.

HOWARD ELTON: Oil Search is much more significant in scale than Tap, which has a more modest-sized oil fields in Western Australia, and AED, which is a very niche operator that's just about to start producing in the Timor Sea. They may find more oil, but they're not of the scale at this time, that Oil Search is certainly.

NEAL WOOLRICH: Carlo Caiani says Oil Search is now trading on a price earnings multiple of more than 60, and the rumour of a bid for the company is another sign that the Chinese are willing to overpay for assets.

CARLO CAIANI: I wouldn't say desperate. They're willing to overpay. They import about 50 per cent of their crude oil requirements. That is set to increase over time, and essentially they're going to have to just overpay for assets to secure the energy requirements. It's as simple as that.

NEAL WOOLRICH: A bid could come at the top of the market with some analysts forecasting a fall in commodity prices because of a slowdown in the US economy.

CARLO CAIANI: That will have a far greater effect on the world economy than most people think. We do believe that a number of mineral commodities; copper, zinc; the base metals, nickel will go down quite hard. Iron ore we think will go down whether it's next year or the year after depending on negotiations.

NEAL WOOLRICH: Investors are now pinning their hopes on the US Federal Reserve giving the American economy a much-needed boost. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again tomorrow and is expected to deliver an interest rate cut of at least a 0.25 per cent.

Let us know your thoughts.

Cheers

 

[rub92me]

I don't think the Oil Search rumours contributed much if any to the TAP sp rise yesterday. Price didn't start appreciating until the Maitland-2 announcement came out, which was excellent news by the way..

 

[rub92me]

Another interesting substantial holder revealed (in addition to the illustrious 'Group of TAP Shareholders') - Eley Griffiths Group now holds just over 5%. From their website:

Eley Griffiths Group Pty Limited (‘EGG’) is a boutique fund manager specialising
in Australian small companies. It is jointly owned by Brian Eley and Ben
Griffiths, former small companies’ portfolio managers at BT Funds Management and
ING Investment Management.
EGG has a commitment to excellence in the management of small company
portfolios, and the managers have extensive experience in this area. The
business operates an outsourced service provider model, which allows the
principals to concentrate their time and energy on portfolio management and the
discovery of stocks that, in their opinion, have been inefficiently valued by
the market.