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Everything from WPL To BPT is off solidly 1.8-3.6% respectively, yet little TAP has held it’s ground and hasn’t moved an inch. Someone is buying it slowly but surely, I’ll bet we are due for a substantial change in holding notice shortly.
rub92me
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I think they're still buying back shares as well, which helps to keep a floor under it. Have been watching this stock for about 9 months now, and they've had an incredible bad run of luck, hitting dry hole after dry hole, even on the lower risk prospects. Very tempted to get in, but the current oil price isn't helping them much either. Not convinced yet...Bush Trader said:
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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In aid of stimulating discussion but at risk of stirring people up, I have to ask why would you follow a loser down into a dry hole?
rub92me
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Moral support? To offset capital gains? Seriously, I think they have proven in the past that they're quite a capable bunch, and it is a high risk business after all...theasxgorilla said:
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Following on from my post last week I thought you would enjoy the following:
The question obviously now is: what follows?
Source FNArena "Chartists at Barclays believe it is time to think of a "relief rally". And where experts such as Dennis Gartman have been calling for a swift return to the high US$50s, the chartists suggest resistance at US$55.40 is likely to hold during the upswing.
As can be seen on the chart below, the so–called Head and Shoulders pattern neckline is at US$55.40 – described as "important resistance" by Barclays. After the market has satisfied itself with a jump to this level, it'll be time to resume the downward movement again, the chartists say.
Were spot oil to sink below the US$49/50 support zone instead this would suggest the the short-term bearish potential of this market has been underestimated, say the chartists. It is their view that major damage has been done to oil's long-term uptrend. A range trade is envisioned for the medium term - "ideally between 45-70 and possibly lower"
Is it a dead cat bounce? Or is it a sign that tensions in the middle east are just too hard to ignore for the hedge funds?
The question obviously now is: what follows?
Source FNArena "Chartists at Barclays believe it is time to think of a "relief rally". And where experts such as Dennis Gartman have been calling for a swift return to the high US$50s, the chartists suggest resistance at US$55.40 is likely to hold during the upswing.
As can be seen on the chart below, the so–called Head and Shoulders pattern neckline is at US$55.40 – described as "important resistance" by Barclays. After the market has satisfied itself with a jump to this level, it'll be time to resume the downward movement again, the chartists say.
Were spot oil to sink below the US$49/50 support zone instead this would suggest the the short-term bearish potential of this market has been underestimated, say the chartists. It is their view that major damage has been done to oil's long-term uptrend. A range trade is envisioned for the medium term - "ideally between 45-70 and possibly lower"
Is it a dead cat bounce? Or is it a sign that tensions in the middle east are just too hard to ignore for the hedge funds?
Attachments
. I just want to know what you all think about this stock. From my point of view i thnk its a good buy. No debt and plenty of money for exploration and also maybe the U.S will go to war in iran so OIL will skyrocket.
rub92me
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Well, the stock was showing some signs of life today with reasonable volume. 1.40 - 1.45 looks like a solid support and has been tested a few times.
Despite exploration challenges they managed to stay cash positive and still have > $100 million in the bank and quite a low market cap. Management appears conservative and pays attention to shareholders (previous share buy back, no high cash intensive exploration plays that need capital raising). All they need is a bit of luck this year. I'm thinking of getting in, but it would be good if they can break above 1.70 - 1.75 so might wait for that as an indicator that the tide has turned
Despite exploration challenges they managed to stay cash positive and still have > $100 million in the bank and quite a low market cap. Management appears conservative and pays attention to shareholders (previous share buy back, no high cash intensive exploration plays that need capital raising). All they need is a bit of luck this year. I'm thinking of getting in, but it would be good if they can break above 1.70 - 1.75 so might wait for that as an indicator that the tide has turned
rub92me said:Well, the stock was showing some signs of life today with reasonable volume. 1.40 - 1.45 looks like a solid support and has been tested a few times.
Despite exploration challenges they managed to stay cash positive and still have > $100 million in the bank and quite a low market cap. Management appears conservative and pays attention to shareholders (previous share buy back, no high cash intensive exploration plays that need capital raising). All they need is a bit of luck this year. I'm thinking of getting in, but it would be good if they can break above 1.70 - 1.75 so might wait for that as an iuse ndicator that the tide has turned
I'm thinking of buying a house for $500,000. I might wait till it breaks above $600,000 so I know the tide has turned.
Sorry to be a smart ****. However..............
al
rub92me
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annalivia said:
Each to their own I guess. Buying on breakouts is a tried and tested approach for stock trading. It probably isn't for the house market. I don't know and I don't care. I'm not trading houses.
CanOz
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rub92me said:
Well said mate! I nearly fell out of my chair when i read "I'm not trading houses"!
Cheers,
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Tap Oil Limited (“Tap”) advises that it has become aware of recent movements in the
company’s share register, which it feels obliged to report to ensure the maintenance of a fully
informed market.
As part of Tap’s regular process of monitoring its share register, it has become aware that
Singapore Petroleum Company Limited (“SPC”) has acquired a beneficial interest in a
significant number of Tap shares. Tap’s share registry has confirmed that as at
21 February 2007, SPC held a beneficial interest in approximately 7.3 million ordinary shares
through nominee holders, representing approximately 4.7% of the issued ordinary capital of
company.
Tap will be seeking discussions with SPC as to its intentions with respect of this
shareholding.
company’s share register, which it feels obliged to report to ensure the maintenance of a fully
informed market.
As part of Tap’s regular process of monitoring its share register, it has become aware that
Singapore Petroleum Company Limited (“SPC”) has acquired a beneficial interest in a
significant number of Tap shares. Tap’s share registry has confirmed that as at
21 February 2007, SPC held a beneficial interest in approximately 7.3 million ordinary shares
through nominee holders, representing approximately 4.7% of the issued ordinary capital of
company.
Tap will be seeking discussions with SPC as to its intentions with respect of this
shareholding.
Dr Doom said:
I read the announcement as well and thought 5% is a long way off of a takeover. On the balance sheet however the company is certainly attractive. You would only need to spend 128 million (256million market Cap/2) to gain 50% control of the company. You being the acquirer know that the company has net tangible assets worth 240 million. So far you have spent half of this to acquire twice the amount of assets. You also know that there is 100million dollars in cash ready to be spent on other acquisitions. Therefore if I was SPC I would buy 50% controlling interest sell all the net tangible assets to other oil companies pay off any loan in acquiring TAP and then keep the 100 million cash any excess received from NTA. REmaining shareholders not so happy SPC very happy. Obviously half of the cash would still belong to existing shareholders but fact remains if NTA could be split up there is potential for a smart company to sell this company off.
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There was movement at the station for the word had passed around.............
http://www.smh.com.au/news/xchange/tap-oil-shows-slick-timing/2007/02/26/1172338548097.html
Tap Oil shows slick timing
February 27, 2007
It's always wise to sweeten a piece of bad news with something more palatable.
IT'S pretty unusual to see a share price increase after a company reports a very poor financial result.
But in Tap Oil's case, there could be an explanation for Friday's heightened trading, which pushed the share price 4c higher to $1.51.
Tap yesterday revealed oil refiner Singapore Petroleum - a recent joint venture partner on an exploration block off Australia's coast - had recently amassed a 4.7 per cent stake in the company.
Such news typically wouldn't be announced until a shareholder hit the 5 per cent mark and was forced to file a substantial holding notice.
But Tap managing director Paul Underwood yesterday told Xchange he had learned of the holding last week and was "obliged" to announce the price-sensitive information under continuous disclosure rules.
Tap learned of Singapore Petroleum's stake before it reported an $825,000 adjusted profit - $19 million short of a Macquarie Equities estimate - on Friday.
But Mr Underwood said it was wrong to infer "cuteness" in terms of the timing.
"I was hearing rumours on the weekend," he said. "We formed the view that if this comes out of the rumour mill, it would be even worse."
Singapore Petroleum informed the Singapore Stock Exchange it had purchased the shares at an average of $1.47 since last year. A Singapore Petroleum representative told Xchange the shares had been acquired "for investment purposes" and said the company would provide further updates "as and when appropriate".
Tap shares predictably soared yesterday, closing 13c - or 9 per cent - higher at $1.64 after trading as high as $1.70.
Before the Singapore Petroleum news was made public, Goldman Sachs JBWere analysts had said there was potential for underperforming Tap to take part in Australian oil and gas sector consolidation.
Tap Oil shows slick timing
February 27, 2007
It's always wise to sweeten a piece of bad news with something more palatable.
IT'S pretty unusual to see a share price increase after a company reports a very poor financial result.
But in Tap Oil's case, there could be an explanation for Friday's heightened trading, which pushed the share price 4c higher to $1.51.
Tap yesterday revealed oil refiner Singapore Petroleum - a recent joint venture partner on an exploration block off Australia's coast - had recently amassed a 4.7 per cent stake in the company.
Such news typically wouldn't be announced until a shareholder hit the 5 per cent mark and was forced to file a substantial holding notice.
But Tap managing director Paul Underwood yesterday told Xchange he had learned of the holding last week and was "obliged" to announce the price-sensitive information under continuous disclosure rules.
Tap learned of Singapore Petroleum's stake before it reported an $825,000 adjusted profit - $19 million short of a Macquarie Equities estimate - on Friday.
But Mr Underwood said it was wrong to infer "cuteness" in terms of the timing.
"I was hearing rumours on the weekend," he said. "We formed the view that if this comes out of the rumour mill, it would be even worse."
Singapore Petroleum informed the Singapore Stock Exchange it had purchased the shares at an average of $1.47 since last year. A Singapore Petroleum representative told Xchange the shares had been acquired "for investment purposes" and said the company would provide further updates "as and when appropriate".
Tap shares predictably soared yesterday, closing 13c - or 9 per cent - higher at $1.64 after trading as high as $1.70.
Before the Singapore Petroleum news was made public, Goldman Sachs JBWere analysts had said there was potential for underperforming Tap to take part in Australian oil and gas sector consolidation.
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Things are looking good!
Fat Prophets have recently put a buy recommendation on TAP.
Resurgence underway
Exciting exploration period over 2007 and into 2008.
Tap Oil retains more than $100 million in its coffers and is planning on spending more than $40 million on exploration over the next 12 months. The company has no debt whatsoever and is completely unhedged with respect to its oil and gas production.
Fat Prophets have recently put a buy recommendation on TAP.
Resurgence underway
Exciting exploration period over 2007 and into 2008.
Tap Oil retains more than $100 million in its coffers and is planning on spending more than $40 million on exploration over the next 12 months. The company has no debt whatsoever and is completely unhedged with respect to its oil and gas production.
rub92me
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Yep, it has been a nice steady rise up with decent volume over the past 3 weeks or so and plenty of 'bot' activity indicating big players are involved as well. From memory, Fat Prophets initially bought at around 2.78 and remained a hold recommendation until recently when the price was around 1.50. SP seems to gradually break free from the long down and sideways movement. I got in once 1.70 was broken. Hasn't exactly zoomed up from there, but willing to give it a year or so to see what happens (unless it breaks down).
hangseng
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Business section headline of The West Australian today. Talk of a possible takeover by Alinta with 3 of the seniors already collecting 5% of TAP in recent weeks. Good article worth a read.
I took a position last week, technically it strongly looked like something was up. I just didn't expect this, I will hold now and take what has been termed today as TAP being "the cusp of the hocket stick and about to rise".
Interesting as well is Gavan Wendt of Fat Prophets comment in the same article, hinting of TAP potential and seemingly supporting the Alinta position to take adavantage and develop the excellent assets of TAP, albeit cryptically.
Should be a great few weeks ahead for TAP. Alinta is already seeking a board seat, the start?
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