Dear Dr Paranoid,
After cleaning my fish pond yesterday I sneezed and got a runny nose. Also, the skin on my hands has gone a bit scaly. Could I have caught Fish Flu?
Signed,
Extremely Concerned
I very much doubt that everyone who has acquired Tamiflu is travelling overseas.
My point was that if people who don't need it were to have used up the available supply, it's pretty tough on anyone who may actually contract the virus and be unable to get the medication.
Much of what is now sitting on bathroom shelves will eventually be thrown out unused.
But maybe hoarders like the notion of making Roche Pharmaceuticals even richer than they are already.
From beginning to now this whole swine flu looked a bit suss. I would love to know the reasoning behind it all. Or is it just a case of the media becoming the maker of black swan events?
From beginning to now this whole swine flu looked a bit suss. I would love to know the reasoning behind it all. Or is it just a case of the media becoming the maker of black swan events?
Although SARS is his claim to fame, Guan has spent most of his career studying influenza after earning a Ph.D. in swine flu under eminent flu expert Robert Webster of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee. He is currently collaborating with Webster’s group.
Q: Where did WHO go wrong?
Y.G.: Friday night [24 April], I was in Bombay airport, waiting for a flight back to Hong Kong. They [WHO and CDC] already knew the situation in Mexico. Mexico said they had human-to-human transmission, and MMWR [Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report] reported three cases in America—these cases were community cases. Already it was an outbreak in the U.S., although it wasn’t severe, it didn’t kill people. I was still optimistic we could contain H1N1. Then nothing happened all weekend.
Q: So WHO should have raised the alert level sooner?
Y.G.: Yes! WHO should have gone to level 4 or even level 5 on Friday.
We missed the golden period to contain the virus. Several hours could be another couple hundred cases. Every second was valuable at that time. We made a huge mistake. From then on it was countdown to the pandemic.
Q: Why have there been dozens of deaths in Mexico but mostly mild cases in other countries?
Y.G.: We still do not have the clues why this virus seems to be milder outside Mexico.
At the initial stage of reassortment, most influenza viruses have low fitness. Their genomes are composed of eight gene segments. The reassortment event forms a new family with eight members. You can say they can have a family conflict. This kind of conflict makes reassorted viruses behavior very weird.
Q: Is it surprising how quickly H1N1 adapted?
Y.G.: All viruses, after interspecies transmission, will evolve fast. But why this H1N1 could become successful at efficient human-to-human transmission is still unknown. We have a knowledge gap about how influenza A viruses build up their pandemicity in humans. As swine H1N1 has being circulating in pigs since 1918, it has accumulated [many] differences from human H1N1 virus. So, for human beings, it looks like a novel subtype, as most human individuals lack immunity to this swine-like H1N1. This is one of the most important conditions for pandemic emergence. Whether the novel virus will develop into a more virulent strain—just like the Spanish flu did in the fall of 1918 to kill more people—we still don't have any idea.
Q: It depends on further mutations?
Y.G.: It depends on mutations and whether the virus further reassorts with other viruses—like H5N1. That could be a super nightmare for the whole world.
Q: You’re talking about the Armageddon virus?
Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It’s a panzootic, present everywhere except North America.
Q: If the nightmare comes true?
Y.G.: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Even if you inject yourself with a vaccine, it may be too late. Maybe in just a couple hours it takes your life.
Q: What have you learned from your work on H1N1 so far?
Y.G.: We almost figured out how H1N1 virus was generated—its evolutionary pathway. The virus has all the genetic markers that allow us to trace how and where it comes from. We have a huge tree [a family tree of influenza variants], a long history. My former supervisor here at HKU, Ken Shortridge, started flu surveillance in 1976. At each point where influenza virus changes, we made a record.
Q: Any truth to the speculation [in Chinese media] that the virus originated in China?
Y.G.: Actually, in this case, we cannot blame China. What’s interesting, the virus reassorted four or five times
Q: Is it surprising that you can have so much reassortment and still have a viable organism?
Y.G.: Yes, that’s right! Basically, we figured out where the virus originated, and we are writing a paper. But where and how this jumped into humans—that needs to be worked out in the U.S.
Q: What are some other major knowledge gaps?
Y.G.: Every year we meet many reassorted viruses, we don’t know which can jump to humans. Which one could become a pandemic? Nobody knows. We lack the knowledge to distinguish which virus has pandemic potential. This is a big limitation.
Many of us influenza researchers, we blame ourselves; if we have this knowledge, then we can get rid of pandemics in human beings. Life becomes very meaningful if you do something like that. SARS has been averted for 6 years. But I’ve been working 20 years on flu. I still don’t know which variant will cause a pandemic. I feel frustrated by this. In my lifetime, I won’t be able to solve this. Hopefully, my students will.
Q: Are you surprised there hasn’t been a SARS outbreak since 2003?
Y.G.: The ecosystem was disrupted. No more large amounts of wild animals in the market, just next to your door. It was like a big mixing vessel. Like a PCR [polymerase chain reaction] machine. Put the virus in and amplify it. That’s why my group has worked so hard to study the H5N1 ecosystem. We sample around 50,000 to 60,000 birds per year, about 200 per day. Like a factory. It’s very mechanical work, very dangerous work.
Q: Somebody has to do it.
Y.G.: Yes! How else can you compare an outbreak with peaceful times? This information will be vital to understand H1N1.
Q: You’re talking about the Armageddon virus?
Y.G.: The chance is very, very low that these two viruses will mix together, but we cannot rule out the possibility. Now, H5N1 is in more than 60 countries. It’s a panzootic, present everywhere except North America.
Quote:
Q: If the nightmare comes true?
Y.G.: If that happens, I will retire immediately and lock myself in the P3 lab. H5N1 kills half the people it infects. Even if you inject yourself with a vaccine, it may be too late. Maybe in just a couple hours it takes your life.
Dont get me going on Climate Change!A similar situation applies with the climate change furore.
Our leaders use the panic to get us to turn to them for help when told things look black. It makes us more dependant on government and putty in their hands.
A similar situation applies with the climate change furore.
Yep, it's the old 'instil fear' process. They have also done it with the GFC:
talked the economy down whilst at the same time handing out play money for the masses with instructions to spend.
Just about every day either Rudd or Swan are all over the media telling us how bad everything is, and what a tough Budget it's going to be. " Every Australian will have to share in the pain", says Swannie. Then if the dreaded Budget is not quite as bad as has been implied, then we will all feel oh so grateful to our fearless leaders for the amazing job they have done in guiding our economic future.
PS A 'temporary ' deficit!!! What a joke.
CDC: WHO expected to declare official pandemic
Officials for the Centers for Disease Control said Wednesday that they expect the World Health Organization to declare an official pandemic of the A/H1N1 virus because it has detected sustained human-to-human transmission in a region other than North America, where the virus was first identified. By declaring a pandemic, the WHO would raise its alert rating from the current level 5 to level 6. The CDC also said there are now 1,487 reported cases of the virus in the U.S. Of those, 642 have been confirmed with a special laboratory test. Two of the victims, both in Texas, have died. Cases of the virus have been confirmed in 41 states, with Illinois topping the list at 122.
flu, smu, the media love anything to scaremonger us..............keep the blinkers on and stay focussed on the trading plan...........
no signifiicant effect imo re the market........just more noise to filter out
flu, smu, the media love anything to scaremonger us..............keep the blinkers on and stay focussed on the trading plan...........
no signifiicant effect imo re the market........just more noise to filter out
british troops pulled out of iraq after 6 year leaving the usa standing alone..
usa congress approved a $3.44 trillion budget resolution, including a $1.2 trillion budget deficit !
arlen specter changed sides becoming a democrat, and leaving bho 1 seat short of a total monopoly in both houses..
chrysler files for chapter 11 bankruptcy..
Winnipeg researcher charged with smuggling biological material into U.S.
ast Updated: Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | 11:11 AM ET Comments99Recommend85CBC News
A researcher at the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg is facing charges in the United States after allegedly trying to smuggle unidentified biological material across the Manitoba-North Dakota border.
In his affidavit, the 42-year-old researcher said he was hired by the Public Health Agency of Canada to work as a PhD fellow at the Winnipeg facility. Yao told officers he was working on a vaccine for the Ebola virus and HIV
"It's being analyzed by the lab," Jordheim said. "I couldn't tell you precisely what it was, but it was material used in his research for Ebola, and HIV and other viruses of that type, looking for vaccines, and these were materials he was using for that research."
and they know this, how? the lab report hasnt come back yet....?Although the vials did not contain active viruses, he said it's still a serious offence.
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