Swine flu pandemic fears

[Luthien]

Our eldest son's school has contacted us this evening via email and mobile phone text to say the school is closed as a precautionary measure as there is a student at each year level with H1 N1 influenza. They are working to identify students who have been in prolonged contact (over several hours) with these students during the past week. Once identified, families will be contacted and those students will receive tamiflu and be asked to enter into voluntary quarantine. All students have been asked to limit activities outside their homes.

Current cases are exhibiting mild symptoms.

Examinations, VCE assessments, school schedule will be impacted.

We have 2 younger boys at different schools. Schools are the perfect influenza (whatever type) conductor. We knew the wave was coming. We'll do out bit and self quarantine the whole family as much as possible just in case.

The horse has not only bolted- the herds have stampeded out the gates.

 

[spooly74]

So what? The common cold 'spreads through everyone' every winter, as does the 'ordinary' flu.

There is different strain of the flu every year.

Comparing swine flu to ordinary seasonal influenza is almost completely irrelevant.
It's as valid today, as it was in 1917. In 1918, 50 million people (mostly young) were dead. That started out as a mild flu, without a high mortality rate.
The worry is that present swine flu clearly has pandemic properties. It spread very easily and very quickly across the globe.

While most people have some form of immunity against seasonal flu, 40,000 people (mostly elderly) still die each year in the US alone.
Nobody has any native immunity against a pandemic, so if it did mutate into a killer, the result would be devastating.

•24 April 2009 -- The United States Government has reported seven
confirmed human cases of Swine Influenza A/H1N1 in the USA
•29 May 2009 -- 29 May 2009, 53 countries have officially reported
15,510 cases

7 to 15,510 in the first 35 days
15,510 to 35,000,000 in the next 35 days? The numbers can quickly get out of hand.

The vaccines are adjusted accordingly.

One day, a virus will adjust accordingly.

 

[So_Cynical]

7 to 15,510 in the first 35 days 15,510 to 35,000,000 in the next
35 days? The numbers can quickly get out of hand.

This was the point i was trying to make....sarcasm is hard to get across on a forum.

If the H1 N1 influenza was a stock, the trend followers would be all over it.

 

[Timmy]

Yep, this is really scary. The horrific, debilitating health effects, the sheer number of deaths (sometimes in extreme pain), the way it effects children, its horrible spread and prevalence. Calling it “pandemic” does not do it justice.
BTW, which pandemic are we referring to again?

Estimations of deaths attributable to passive smoking

Children bear cost of passive smoking

Daily road toll update

almost 10% of the total burden of disease in Australia in 1996 was attributable to tobacco smoking

Illicit drug use is associated with around 1,000 deaths per year in Australia

In 1998, around 2,000 deaths among persons aged 0-64 years were attributable to the use of alcohol

I could go on.

Oh yeah, pig flu:
Runny nose pandemic - chuck a sickie (no source for this one, I made it up).

Get a grip.

 

[Prospector]

Except it didnt spread to epic proportions in Mexico; it is now officially waning, and only 5,000 cases were reported. Mexico has more deaths in a day from drug running and extortion. How do you explain that in a population of Mexico of over 100 million people, where poverty is endemic and health systems poor, only .005% of the population actually got it, and most recovered very quickly.

If there were 200 cases in Australia on Friday then by now there should be close to 1000. In SA, we have had three members of 1 family with it, although 1 not proven in the labs, and three people who came from the cruise ship. That is almost a week ago now. Two schools closed for a week now re-opened. Pandemic?

 

[Julia]

Comparing swine flu to ordinary seasonal influenza is almost completely irrelevant.
It's as valid today, as it was in 1917. In 1918, 50 million people (mostly young) were dead. That started out as a mild flu, without a high mortality rate.

No, Spooly, it's not at all as valid today as it was in 1918. The main cause of death then was the bacterial infection (usually in the form of pneumonia) which followed the initial virus. There was no penicillin, so people died in large numbers.

And if you consider comparing swine flue to ordinary seasonal influenza is 'almost completely irrelevant', you are holding a different view from that of the country's Chief Medical Officer and most doctors.

 

[nunthewiser]

Yep, this is really scary. The horrific, debilitating health effects, the sheer number of deaths (sometimes in extreme pain), the way it effects children, its horrible spread and prevalence. Calling it “pandemic” does not do it justice.
BTW, which pandemic are we referring to again?

Estimations of deaths attributable to passive smoking

Children bear cost of passive smoking

Daily road toll update

almost 10% of the total burden of disease in Australia in 1996 was attributable to tobacco smoking

Illicit drug use is associated with around 1,000 deaths per year in Australia

In 1998, around 2,000 deaths among persons aged 0-64 years were attributable to the use of alcohol

I could go on.

Oh yeah, pig flu:
Runny nose pandemic - chuck a sickie (no source for this one, I made it up).

Get a grip.

love your work

 

[aldebaran3003]

No, Spooly, it's not at all as valid today as it was in 1918. The main cause of death then was the bacterial infection (usually in the form of pneumonia) which followed the initial virus. There was no penicillin, so people died in large numbers.

And if you consider comparing swine flue to ordinary seasonal influenza is 'almost completely irrelevant', you are holding a different view from that of the country's Chief Medical Officer and most doctors.

Here here!

Death is principally from sequelae of pneumonia or sepsis as with almost every other influenza death in the country. Few will get pneumonia, while even fewer will develop sepsis. Both are treatable with the prognosis dependant on a multitude of factors including whether they develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, how quickly antibiotic therapy is commenced and the offending organism.

Mexico pushed the red panic button too quickly, remembering the standard of living and health care. Now WHO and governments everywhere must try to save face and avoid a please-explain from business and the global public knowing that the threat and virulence is nowhere near the level it was first thought to be. WHO will have learned it's lesson in listening to academics from Mexico.

For those that are interested, INFLUENZA, a virus, is "treated" with anti-viral drugs ie tamiflu (Roche). IF this flu was a virulent as the Spanish flu and people were dropping like flies from sepsis and pneumonia (which is bacterial and occasionally fungal), then they would be treated with antibiotics, so any manufacturers of augmentin, gentamicin, and third generation cephalosporins would be working around the clock to increase production.

Spooly I hear there is a "killer pandemic vaccine" soon to be widely available on ebay

I gotta say I'm more afraid of meningococcal disease than swine flu and if the Gold Coast's poster family for the disease is any example then I'll soldier on with Codral.

 

[Calliope]

The way the health authorities have stuffed the Pacific Dawn around is laughable. The P&O should sue the government for their losses.

SHOWING they hadn't lost their sense of humour, a small group of passengers on the cruise ship Pacific Dawn chanted in loud voices, "Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oink Oink Oink".

No evidence of any passenger to passenger or crew to passenger flu transmission was found.

 

[Prospector]

The way the health authorities have stuffed the Pacific Dawn around is laughable. The P&O should sue the government for their losses.
No evidence of any passenger to passenger or crew to passenger flu transmission was found.

I heard this today. P&O have given people 25% off their next cruise, plus a 75% refund of this cruise. Why should they have to pay for a monumental stuff up! There are sensible precautions, and then there is panic. The Government panicked, for a virus that isnt spreading rapidly and doesnt appear to have any more effects than influenza, actually, probably less. If this virus was so contagious, then why didnt the crew spread it further. Why havent the rest of the crew come down with it?

 

[Prospector]

Ok, so this bit I dont get. Victoria has said swine flu is out of control so some time this week they are moving from contain to sustain. Which means that people suspected of being exposed to the illness do not need to be quarantined unless they live with a confirmed person. That makes no sense to me.

 

[Timmy]

Victoria has said swine flu is out of control

In Victoria you are more likely to die in a bushfire than from pig flu. Right?

 

[Anthony Hosemans]

The swine flu is out of control in Victoria, however it appears to be much less deadly than when it first appeared in Mexico. When first noticed it hd a 3% fatality rate and if that had of continued we would be in real strife. However it would appear to have become "milder" with no deaths recorded in Australia to date. The "normal" flu kills about 2500 Australians each year. Why all the hype about this one! Regards Kooka

 

[Happy]

.... Why all the hype about this one! Regards Kooka

I think these are mindless rules at work.

Because country reported epidemic (Mexico)
People contracted in several countries.
People died in 3 countries (pandemic)

Every phase must be called up and this is all OK, but as it looks now bit of too conservative.

The only logical argument is that this flu has no cure and has no vaccines.
Should it mutate to extremely deadly one, we have no other means of combat but isolate and wait only.
Probably this little test run will condition people to what can be done, so they do not argue and authorities get experience how to do it better when real matter hits the fan.

 

[Prospector]

Probably this little test run will condition people to what can be done, so they do not argue and authorities get experience how to do it better when real matter hits the fan.

I would agree that it could be seen as a test run, so long as when the big one hits people dont ignore it. And hope they havent handed out all the tamiflu!

 

[Aussiejeff]

In Victoria you are more likely to die in a bushfire than from pig flu. Right?

Wrong!

You are more likely to die from ANYTHING in Victoria than from pig flu.

In fact, if you a lucky enough to catch "swine flu", you know for certain you WONT die from the normal flu instead and can therefore dance in the street, celebrating your good luck!!

Authorities should instead be proclaiming "Thank god for the swine flu" since it will prolly mean the annual horrific "normal flu" death toll is less this year than usual.

 

[Timmy]

Wrong!
You are more likely to die from ANYTHING in Victoria than from pig flu.

Thank-you for the correction Jeff, you're right!
LOL

 

[Calliope]

The Government clearly thinks that our hygiene standards (or manners) are not up to scratch when it has to advise us how to safely dispose of unwanted mucous secretions i.e. use a tissue and then dispose of it.

I hope our Ashes team have been given this advice. No Australian cricketer has been known to carry a tissue or a hankie in his pocket on to the field since Mark Waugh carried that little red rag.

 

[Timmy]

This Runny Nose Pandemic B/S is getting funnier and more ridiculous by the day:

Victoria placed on swine flu blacklist

Victoria has been blacklisted as the country's swine-flu capital, with children who travel to Melbourne to be banned from school for seven days when they return home.

Is this why Victorians are often referred to as Mexicans (hi Sol) ?

 

[Aussiejeff]

This Runny Nose Pandemic B/S is getting funnier and more ridiculous by the day:

Victoria placed on swine flu blacklist

Victoria has been blacklisted as the country's swine-flu capital, with children who travel to Melbourne to be banned from school for seven days when they return home.

Is this why Victorians are often referred to as Mexicans (hi Sol) ?

Areeeba! Areeeba! Underlay!! :mexico:



Oh dear. I hope Mr Joe won't ban us Vickies as well for being a viral mob....

Too late for this thread though.

It went viral at least 6 pages back!

LOL

PS: What next? Federal Police to set up US/Mexico style armed border crossing checkpoints along the VIC state borders and refuse Vics entry to other states?