SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[skc]

That US payroll data turned out to be a bit of non-event. SPX moved may be 3 points down and now back to where it was before the figures. I am guessing a range bound day on the Dow, but it's a long night so who knows.

When will it end? It's looking pretty bullish, especially on the charts that T/Hand posted. Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!

It's funny. I was just thinking about the crash and the insanity that engulfed it last year, and now this?! Goodness knows...

Thank goodness i'm not heavily invested in this market. I'm waitin' for the crash.

Why do you want it to end? And it's actually terrible that you are not heavily invested at the moment. So many shares are popping all over the place. Just take a look at the potential break out threads and flags and pennant thread. In deed, one of the charts was on the XJO pennant and that popped up too.

Make hay when the sun shine, rather than hold on to a view that was probably justified over 1 month ago. With good stop losses, your risk reward on individual stock is still OK even for as for as the overall market has come.

i see short term pain for our friend Ivant on the horizon...

And which variety of tealeaves do you use to predict this?

 

[Largesse]

And which variety of tealeaves do you use to predict this?

very poor quality ones

 

[ivant]

haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!

 

[Cartman]

haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!

agree ---- only brave retail traders would be buying atm!

 

[Rick_Hunter]

hmmm, that was some aggressive selling there

10 pts of the S&P in the matter of like 15min, wonder what happened there, usually that only occurs on some major news

failed to break the 929 tonight, at least for now

going to be an interesting night

 

[alwaysLearning]

haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!

You know, just the feeling for me at the moment is that there isn't much interesting news to report on over the next few weeks. We've had our stress test results and now NFP data etc.

I'm struggling to think of what else the market can rally on next week and in coming weeks?

Not that I trade fumdementals but I'm just wondering...

I still don't buy that everything is fine now and get go smashing back up. Nah...we are in a bear market afterall.

 

[ivant]

Yes, of course we are. My last trade when I was long since January, I didn't think the economy is getting better, I thought the markets were oversold. The economy is horrible at the moment. It stinks. The plan with the stress tests is to get money back into them so that everyone goes back to normal. The fundamentals are not fixed. If we rally of 801 1/2 on the S&P (50% retracement),or 750 significantly, I will have my second thoughts about where this will all go, and then it could be a bull market. Time will tell. I just rambled my head out into my blog lol. seems like i am repeating myself haha. But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!

 

[alwaysLearning]

Yes, of course we are. My last trade when I was long since January, I didn't think the economy is getting better, I thought the markets were oversold. The economy is horrible at the moment. It stinks. The plan with the stress tests is to get money back into them so that everyone goes back to normal. The fundamentals are not fixed. If we rally of 801 1/2 on the S&P (50% retracement),or 750 significantly, I will have my second thoughts about where this will all go, and then it could be a bull market. Time will tell. I just rambled my head out into my blog lol. seems like i am repeating myself haha. But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!

So if price does something like in the chart below, you might be thinking that we could be approaching bull territory?

 

[ivant]

So if price does something like in the chart below, you might be thinking that we could be approaching bull territory?

Yep If the bounce is strong and convincing enough. I'd look for 750 though!

 

[sammy84]

haha, that was a fair bit of a read. i dont think it was a non-event as such. no instant reaction, that is expected. interesting to see the revisions within the next month. not that they really matter. in any case, the market will most likely wipe off the gains over the next few hours, and go back to even. my question is what happens next. oil started selling off a little, and that will be interesting to watch, if it actually can sail lower. i am still a believer that this will start selling on the news. a little selling with no real buying pressure and this is gone. time shall tell!

As I speak the S&P is up 2.4%. Its time to admit this is bad trade and get out isn't it? There is a lesson to be learnt by trading a reversal without getting confirmation.

 

[beamstas]

Although, when prices are that much above the moving average, they usually come down / 'correct' at some stage... But, when?!

Sorry to be a pain in the ass again! (in the same thread i might add)

But i see no reason why the price should return to the moving average
The moving average should return to the price!

Remember the price is NOW, the moving average is OLD INFORMATION so it cannot predict anything

We have actually stopped overlapping coming up, meaning our last move has been an inpulse. The most recent previous high was 3851.2 and our most recent low is 3851.9

Im not saying the price is going to keep going up

But i've been bearish since 3700, butim not going to keep fighting the market

If it's gonna go its gonna go!

CHeers
Brad

 

[Trembling Hand]

One of my trading rules

 

[MS+Tradesim]

But I just feel good that i have survived thus far. I feel good about where this will all go now, and i just get the feeling that the time has come!

Has it not occurred to you that you could just be wrong and you're going to lose the lot because you're trading your opinion of what the markets should do instead of following what the markets are doing?

I'm speaking from experience. I turned a small amount into $1m and lost 90% of it for this very reason. That was some time back and it burnt me badly and that's what it took for me to "get it".

Honestly, if this trade goes your way it's going to be disastrous for you. You will be reinforced into believing you're always right no matter how much short term pain you suffer and eventually you'll meet the trade that breaks you.

But i've been bearish since 3700, butim not going to keep fighting the market

Ditto. Took my losses on the shorts. Moved on. Done well since instead of hanging around wanting to be right and suffering through the open equity drawdown.

 

[Aussiest]

Why do you want it to end? And it's actually terrible that you are not heavily invested at the moment. So many shares are popping all over the place. Just take a look at the potential break out threads and flags and pennant thread. In deed, one of the charts was on the XJO pennant and that popped up too.

Make hay when the sun shine, rather than hold on to a view that was probably justified over 1 month ago. With good stop losses, your risk reward on individual stock is still OK even for as for as the overall market has come.

I was heavily invested. I got in at the bottom.

Not sure where to go right now. Make your decisions and i will make mine!

I do agree with what others have said in this forum, that it's better to trade the trend rather than what you think is going to happen.

 

[skc]

I was heavily invested. I got in at the bottom.

Not sure where to go right now. Make your decisions and i will make mine!

Thank goodness i'm not heavily invested in this market. I'm waitin' for the crash.

Getting slightly conflicting messages here (Not that it really matters, btw).

We almost reached 4000 last night on the SPI. High of 3989! Everyone buy buy buy!

*secretly fading the crowd and going short*

 

[alwaysLearning]

Has it not occurred to you that you could just be wrong and you're going to lose the lot because you're trading your opinion of what the markets should do instead of following what the markets are doing?

I'm speaking from experience. I turned a small amount into $1m and lost 90% of it for this very reason. That was some time back and it burnt me badly and that's what it took for me to "get it".

Honestly, if this trade goes your way it's going to be disastrous for you. You will be reinforced into believing you're always right no matter how much short term pain you suffer and eventually you'll meet the trade that breaks you.



Ditto. Took my losses on the shorts. Moved on. Done well since instead of hanging around wanting to be right and suffering through the open equity drawdown.

Can you talk a little about how you turned a small amount into one million dollars? What instrument were you trading? Also, what amount did you start with to build it into a million dollars and how long did it take?

Did you lose 90% off one trade or a series of trades?

What was your psychological approach to the markets when you were getting close to the 1million dollar mark?

 

[cutz]

*secretly fading the crowd and going short*

Are you fading the market intraday or do you hold onto positions on a longer term basis (multi day).

 

[skc]

Are you fading the market intraday or do you hold onto positions on a longer term basis (multi day).

Sorry mate that was just a joke. I just noted that everyone on this forum was somewhat bearish at 3700 and the market just bolted up, so fading the crowd has potential merits.

I have recently started, however, setting a stop entry short order may be 30-40 points below the market price before I go to bed. I have many long share positions so a bit of hedging just in case the market falls through the roof for whatever reason in my sleep.

 

[cutz]

OK, i gotcha

 

[MRC & Co]

I just noted that everyone on this forum was somewhat bearish at 3700 and the market just bolted up, so fading the crowd has potential merits.

Everyone? I remember thinking a large number were bullish. Kennas, nomore, TH a few.

Personally, I would have cut the position or flipped it when we easily held 3800, but there is no lesson in not waiting for confirmation. Selling levels after an extended run is an obvious idea where you don't need confirmation, however, this broke the level with ease, not cutting and selling again at the next level or simply starting off selling only several contracts at the first level and averaging down (exponentially, by selling say double what you sold at the first level, at the second level, assuming you started out small at the first level), could be a lesson.