SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[Mr J]

Profit = Entry - exit. Both very important base on my equation

My most important philosophy in sportsbetting was the emphasis on getting a good price.

Automatically new traders (newbies) concentrate heavily on the entry and exit, instead of concentrating on where the money is made (risk management)

Risk management is determined by entry and exit. They don't fall under the same "umbrella", they are one and the same. Money is made by capturing price, done through entry and exit. These same actions also manage risk. Profit and risk management are both achieved though entry and exit.

 

[Trembling Hand]

You enter the SPI short at 4000

Is it going to go up or down

Simple question

That is an entry

Now tell me if you are going to make money

Doesn't matter where you enter the market

It's going to go up or its going to go down
Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)

Utter rubbish. Ask Ivan about entries. His short may work out in the time he figures it will ie down to 3300 or whatever. But he may also spew up his position if we go much higher at a big loss.

That is a bad entry to a good trade.

Just an example not saying that will happen

 

[beamstas]

Everyone is taking my point out of context!

 

[Rick_Hunter]

IMO, good entries minimises your losses when you are wrong and hence can keep you in the game for longer (btw i've been stupidly shorting the index since around 3700 levels, burnt again and again, but most of my entries have been at what i believe are extremely overbought levels, so somehow my losses have been managable)

e.g. If you believe the index at or above 4000 is overpriced and due for a correction targeting around 3900. When the index hits say 4010, you start to short because you think it's a false breakout. You then get proven wrong coz a few days later the index 'closed' at 4040, which means the band has probably moved up a level now (say 4000-4100). So the loss may be around 30ish points

however if you tried to chase it down and it reverses on you (happened a lot in this rally), then the losses are much greater.


Btw, any other 'bears' out there that's really getting their energy drained from this rally? This rally has been so fast and so strong with barely any corrections. Maybe I should give it a rest, but then it defeats the whole purpose of shorting it in the first place. If i believe 3700 was a good shorting point, then 3930 should be awesome, however, fighting the market for the last month or so is really wanna make me start giving in

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Everyone is taking my point out of context!

Then what do you mean by "no one can accurately predict the market"?

 

[Bobby]

Does anyone know the live speed of their SPI data from the actual ?
know of one vendor who claimed down to half a second & under a full second when chaotic ..

 

[beamstas]

Then what do you mean by "no one can accurately predict the market"?

What will the market do Monday?

I'll elaborate more on what I've said later. Im at work now so can't go into detail. Everyone is being fast to jump on their keyboard and discredit me but I guess I didn't word what I was saying well enough.

Im not saying entries are not important

If you don't enter the market you can't ever make money.

 

[Mr J]

You enter the SPI short at 4000

Is it going to go up or down

Simple question

That is an entry

Now tell me if you are going to make money

Doesn't matter where you enter the market

It's going to go up or its going to go down
Your entry doesn't dictate that (unless you are soros)

The entry doesn't dictate whether or not the trade will be successful, but the entry and exit do determine your result.

 

[beamstas]

The entry doesn't dictate whether or not the trade will be successful, but the entry and exit do determine your result.

Ahhhh

 

[MS+Tradesim]

What will the market do Monday?

I have no idea what the market will do Monday. But I have a statistically significant edge in picking what an individual share might do.

Ps. I'm not going into that, but putting effort into finding good entries is just as important as picking good exits.

 

[beamstas]

I have no idea what the market will do Monday. But I have a statistically signficant edge in picking what an individual share might do.

Well you are a gifted trader (i am not being sarcastic)

I bet everyone in this thread who is profitable enters differently. Therefore it is not the entry that is paramount in who is profitable and who is not. It's just a way to get into the market. What makes the profitable traders in this thread profitable is because they have positive expectancy (ie they let their winners be bigger than their losers)

IMO trade management has a bigger impact on expectancy than entries do

Entries are important. But they do not dictate what the market will do (ie: the market will go up when a 21d ma crosses a 7d ma or whatever). I know MS+T, TH and stuff know this.. im talking on a basic level. You guys obviously have an edge and know how entries and exits work

Hope you can get my point

 

[MS+Tradesim]

IMO trade management has a bigger impact on expectancy than entries do

No one is denying that. But the standard trading books and wisdom downplay the way in which good entries add to your bottom line.

Tell me...which option is preferable:

1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70

But they do not dictate what the market will do (ie: the market will go up when a 21d ma crosses a 7d ma or whatever).

I agree. No-one is saying that an entry causes anything.

Hope you can get my point

I do. But if you spend some time working on entries you'll discover extra profits.

Well you are a gifted trader (i am not being sarcastic)

I know you're not being sarcastic. But I'm not gifted trader. I just figured out that the standard wisdom of downplaying the importance of entries was an urban myth. I then spent considerable time looking for an edge on that end of the trade.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Anyway back to the SPI.

Where are all the traders?? No volume today

Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.

 

[beamstas]

No one is denying that. But the standard trading books and wisdom downplay the way in which good entries add to your bottom line.

Tell me...which option is preferable:

1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70



I agree. No-one is saying that an entry causes anything.



I do. But if you spend some time working on entries you'll discover extra profits.

Take a look at my thread
I do spent time working on entries
I am trading EOD, I am sure there is a whole new world of entries intra-day, that i really want to get into and trade the SPI intra-day.



I too shorted the SPI at 3685. But i was out because i used proper trade management.

1) Enter $1.50 - exit $1.70
2) Enter $1.45 - exit $1.70

Ahh im not stupid! $1.45

But what if it was
Enter at $1.50 stop loss $1.40
Enter at $1.45 stop loss $1.00

First trade you have made 2R
Second trade you have made 0.55R

Over the long term trade 1 will be better (Risk management)

For someone like you, risk management will be natural.
But for newbies (not largesse), they might spend all their time on entries and none on management.
This is the point i am making

Cheers
Brad

 

[beamstas]

Anyway back to the SPI.

Where are all the traders?? No volume today

Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.

Are we up or down and what is the spread like? (Im at work)

An up day with a narrow spread on low volume means no demand. Basically professional money have no desire to buy at a higher level than what is being offered.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Are we up or down and what is the spread like? (Im at work)

An up day with a narrow spread on low volume means no demand. Basically professional money have no desire to buy at a higher level than what is being offered.

Ah hahaha

Why not professional shorts have no desire to short at these levels. Why is VSA biased to wards pros buying

 

[MRC & Co]

Where are all the traders?? No volume today

Non-farms tonight, generally pretty dead the day before as far as I am aware.

 

[beamstas]

Anyway back to the SPI.

Where are all the traders?? No volume today

Is this the pause before the almighty move?? Some VSA specialist wanna give their opinion on low volume day near breakout levels.

? what

 

[Trembling Hand]

Non-farms tonight, generally pretty dead the day before as far as I am aware.

good "demand" in stocks though today.

 

[MRC & Co]

good "demand" in stocks though today.

There was high vol on stocks today?