SMY - Sally Malay Mining

[porkpie324]

Hi Col, yes read that article too, I just wonder if there's some manipulating going here with nickel and sound nickel stocks, anyway I was'nt going to risk it so sold closed my open positions, was tempted to short but I still feel positive on nickel stocks and reluctant to do so. Also have closed my MCR head shares, held for about 2 years so really in the money there.
As for JML hold the head shares, in the money there too, you can now trade JML with CFDs so opened a pos last week with them.
As for my MCR, IGO&SMY analysis you can't be correct all the time and there will be other oppotunities i'm sure. porkpie

 

[Col Lector]

Porkpie...those JML are flying!! Still hold some of my original IGO/MCR....but have reduced bigtime over last month....cant feel the pain though....the JML offset effect I guess

 

[rub92me]

No expert on the fundamentals, but accepting that SMY sp and Nickel prices are closely linked. With SMY sp at 4.00 it has come off close to 30% of the high, and Nickel about 20%. Following that train of thought the SMY sp had perhaps a bit 'overreacted' to the price decline in Nickel? I'm still in this long term for the dividend (free carried after selling only about 20% of my original holding ).

 

[porkpie324]

I definitely got back in too early with SMY and IGO & MCR, I did exactly the same with KZL in Jan. I've had 3 months off from trading and was to eager to open positions againporkpie

 

[porkpie324]

What a great bounce off the $4.00 area, lots of support there so pushed the boat out last Thurs/Fri, really made up those previous losses, may take Mrs pork out for dinner tonight on the proceeds (RSL of coarse).porkpie

 

[smoothsatin]

What a great bounce off the $4.00 area, lots of support there so pushed the boat out last Thurs/Fri, really made up those previous losses, may take Mrs pork out for dinner tonight on the proceeds (RSL of coarse).porkpie

Are you still in Porkpie?
I have been stopped out of my second half today, good return for such a liquid stock.

 

[prophet174]

The Australian Financial Review | 06 Jul 2007 | Companies and Markets
Takeover speculation is gathering over nickel producer Sally Malay Mining after its shares bounced back strongly.
In the month after a production downgrade in May, the shares fell below $4 as the nickel price dropped more than 25 per cent from record levels.
Sally Malay rose 31 ¢ to $4.74 yesterday, and is up 60 ¢ so far this week.
The only news the company has released this week was drilling results from the Copernicus project, which one analyst said was negligible to its valuation.
There was talk that more drilling results were imminent from the Lanfranchi venture in Western Australia, amid speculation of a takeover.
Sally Malay has an open register and significant production coming online. Despite being a fairly high-cost producer, it is considered one of the more likely nickel targets, behind Jubilee Mines and Minara Resources.
Managing director Peter Harold said a recent four-day North American roadshow was very positive and could explain the increased buying.

 

[porkpie324]

No Smoothy I closed yesterday at 4.83/4.84, did look at opening again today but did'nt. What I did do was open on MCR yesterday and closed today for another good earner, all I want now is for IGO to increase and I've got the hatrick.

I consider all the above nickel miners to be well run profitable companies which I believe are certs to buy on any weakness. porkpie

 

[Nick Radge]

BOTTOM LINE
6/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
6/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
6/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 52 secs) Long video. Expect extended download time
We reviewed SMY exactly 1-month ago and suggested that a move toward $5.00 was then probable. Yesterdays highs was $4.87 and showed some minor supply entering the market. This area respresents minor price resistance as well and could be a level whereby prices start to fail. The larger picture is assuredly bullish but the pattern indications, both short term and long term, suggest that significant gains are not going to made any time soon. We may see short term strength continue from here if this supply abates but speaking in the context of the next few months I'd suggest SMY will be hard pressed to make new highs. That said, with the quite obvious, and strong, buyer demand back in early June it's also highly probable that significant weakness will not be forthcoming either. My analysis suggests that a broad sideways range will develop over the next few months before we start moving higher again in the multi year uptrend. Bullish, but don't be in too much of a hurry to jump on board.
6/6:
Prices have been trending lower of late and whilst I do expect a bounce in the near term I am not confident that the bounce will be sustained. This chart is the daily chart. Our last review discussed an extended sideways period from a weekly perspective and I believe that scenario to still be unfolding for a few months yet. SMY is a nickel stock but appears to have just got ahead of itself from a fundamental perspective. The longer term trend remains upward but we need a lot more sideways movement, possibly till near end of 2007, until prices are ready to start higher again. In the interim I am expecting an advance back toward the $5.00 area before weakness sets in again. If you are holding the stock as a trading position then you may wish to review volume characteristics at that level to determine continued strength or resumption of weakness - which I favour. Longer term holders simply require patience, although further weakness cannot be overlooked.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
6/7:
The wave-(4) is taking shape and there is clear evidence that it may be a broad consolidation pattern of some type. I say this for several reasons; firstly the decline down to these recent lows took the shape of a 5-wave impulse which at this stage of the trend can only be a wave-A. It cannot be the completion of a wave-(4). The weekly chart (refer video) points to a complex pattern because the wave-(2) was a simple zig zag and according to the Law of Alternation we should expect the complete opposite here at wave-(4). The complete opposite would be a broad sideways consolidation, possibly a triangle or even a flat pattern of some type. The demand volume seen at the recent lows adds weight to the argument that's its unlikely that we'll travel any lower from there. It may well be that we see a period of re-accumulation at these major highs and as we know, a wave-(4) is a byproduct of a re-accumulation phase. Because the weekly chart points to a longer time period for resolving this pattern we should now expect choppy activity between these levels for the next two months. These swings will offer trading opportunities, but longer term investors will require patience.
6/6:
The weekly chart suggests a major degree wave-(3) is in place so the wave-(4) should start taking shape. With the 5-wave pattern down off those highs I think it accurate to suggest that we're nearing the completion of a wave-(a) of a larger corrective pattern. The 5-waves down, so far, terminate near the lower side of the channel, but more importantly is the volume. Look at that volume starting to spike. I think buyers are in and if buyers are in then we may be due for the wave-(b) bounce. That bounce should take prices back to $5.00 being 50.0% retracement of the wave-(a) decline and coincide with the wave-iv of one lower degree. Bottom line here is that we should expect a bounce very soon that can be traded, but don't get to absorbed by the strength because I feel it will fail and lead to new lows.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[TheRage]

BOTTOM LINE
6/7:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
6/6:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
6/7:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 52 secs) Long video. Expect extended download time
We reviewed SMY exactly 1-month ago and suggested that a move toward $5.00 was then probable. Yesterdays highs was $4.87 and showed some minor supply entering the market. This area respresents minor price resistance as well and could be a level whereby prices start to fail. The larger picture is assuredly bullish but the pattern indications, both short term and long term, suggest that significant gains are not going to made any time soon. We may see short term strength continue from here if this supply abates but speaking in the context of the next few months I'd suggest SMY will be hard pressed to make new highs. That said, with the quite obvious, and strong, buyer demand back in early June it's also highly probable that significant weakness will not be forthcoming either. My analysis suggests that a broad sideways range will develop over the next few months before we start moving higher again in the multi year uptrend. Bullish, but don't be in too much of a hurry to jump on board.
6/6:
Prices have been trending lower of late and whilst I do expect a bounce in the near term I am not confident that the bounce will be sustained. This chart is the daily chart. Our last review discussed an extended sideways period from a weekly perspective and I believe that scenario to still be unfolding for a few months yet. SMY is a nickel stock but appears to have just got ahead of itself from a fundamental perspective. The longer term trend remains upward but we need a lot more sideways movement, possibly till near end of 2007, until prices are ready to start higher again. In the interim I am expecting an advance back toward the $5.00 area before weakness sets in again. If you are holding the stock as a trading position then you may wish to review volume characteristics at that level to determine continued strength or resumption of weakness - which I favour. Longer term holders simply require patience, although further weakness cannot be overlooked.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
6/7:
The wave-(4) is taking shape and there is clear evidence that it may be a broad consolidation pattern of some type. I say this for several reasons; firstly the decline down to these recent lows took the shape of a 5-wave impulse which at this stage of the trend can only be a wave-A. It cannot be the completion of a wave-(4). The weekly chart (refer video) points to a complex pattern because the wave-(2) was a simple zig zag and according to the Law of Alternation we should expect the complete opposite here at wave-(4). The complete opposite would be a broad sideways consolidation, possibly a triangle or even a flat pattern of some type. The demand volume seen at the recent lows adds weight to the argument that's its unlikely that we'll travel any lower from there. It may well be that we see a period of re-accumulation at these major highs and as we know, a wave-(4) is a byproduct of a re-accumulation phase. Because the weekly chart points to a longer time period for resolving this pattern we should now expect choppy activity between these levels for the next two months. These swings will offer trading opportunities, but longer term investors will require patience.
6/6:
The weekly chart suggests a major degree wave-(3) is in place so the wave-(4) should start taking shape. With the 5-wave pattern down off those highs I think it accurate to suggest that we're nearing the completion of a wave-(a) of a larger corrective pattern. The 5-waves down, so far, terminate near the lower side of the channel, but more importantly is the volume. Look at that volume starting to spike. I think buyers are in and if buyers are in then we may be due for the wave-(b) bounce. That bounce should take prices back to $5.00 being 50.0% retracement of the wave-(a) decline and coincide with the wave-iv of one lower degree. Bottom line here is that we should expect a bounce very soon that can be traded, but don't get to absorbed by the strength because I feel it will fail and lead to new lows.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Thanks for the analysis Nick. I enjoy reading your posts. I have re-read adaptive analysis recently and I am starting to get a little bit of an idea on how to apply EW properly. I still use fundamental analysis for my long positions but I have been definately applying better risk management than what I use to thanks in part to your book.
Cheers Ryan

 

[eMark]

With the nickel price down a further 3% or so last night, and talk that it has further to fall. It appears that SMY has failed to hit $5.00 again, and has retracted 28c today as of this post. I'm feeling this could be a short term sell. I got in at $4.14 a short time ago, and I don't want my profits to erode much further. The above post from Nick Radge seems to say it all.

 

[porkpie324]

I'm not sure of SMY being a shot sell,the SP has come off some yes with the price of nickel, but look at the price action SMY bounced off the $4.00 mark mid June went $4.50 then back to the $4.00 area were the support was good (thats where I opened Fri 29 june), went straight upto 4,85 (where I closed last Thursday), as at writing over 50k shares have come on the sell side lets see what happens now, if there absorbed at about that price SMY is probably worth a long pos. porkpie

 

[PeterPan]

Guys, what’s happening with Sally Malay? I can’t work it out! It’s debt free, plenty of cash in the bank, turnover of around $100 Million, 13,000 tonnes of nickel produced, will pay a nice dividend in 2007-08, should have around 0.46c EPS, there is still this rumour about being targeted for takeover, the price of nickel looks like is going to stay around the $30,000 mark …. but SMY price is still going down, slowly but steadily down!!!

Does anyone have any idea?????

 

[porkpie324]

You and me both with that pete, It's the same with all nickel miners at the mo, IGO, MCR, MRE, SMY, JBM all off since May, there's low volume so some volatility showing, But I'm sure it will be worth waiting, some of the above are recomended buys by brokers, it's a good time to accumalate I've been picking up all except JBM even picked up some AGM. porkpie

 

[PeterPan]

Hi Porkpie, do you think the herd is now hunting in the Uranium field and therefore money has all flown there? Pete

 

[porkpie324]

No I don't its a different fish in different pond. Have just read this article on 'Kitco' which goes with my thinking.
'1648 GMT [Dow Jones] LME nickel prices will be dominated by technical moves in the short-term but after the summer slowdown the market will focus on Asian steel mills expected to crank up output, Standard Bank says. Adds nickel prices may have found support at current levels but there are signs that "sentiment is turning" with an increase in consumption anticipated towards the end of the year. LME nickel trades at $32,700/ton, up 3% from Tuesday's low. (DNM)' porkpie

 

[PeterPan]

I had read this article this morning myself too and I was feeling quite confident at open (especially because it opened +0.06!), but then downhill again!

It's 3 times now that SMY opens + but then ends -. How come ????

 

[porkpie324]

Its just market forces, right now there's low volume with more sellers than buyers, until the buy side strenghthens it will continue.porkpie

 

[Gundini]

Have to say I am very happy to get a piece of SMY at these prices. You gotta love it when the market throws a sale!

Based on future earning and growth potential, debt free, this stock seems very good value.

Sitting nicely on long term support seems a reasonable entry point for mine.

 

[Gundini]

Must say I may have been a bit rash in my decission to buy SMY.

Can't get over the LME stockpile and how fast it is growing, and conversly how fast the price of Nickel is falling!

I can see Nickel getting back to $5 USD a pound at this rate.

Ironically, SMY is semi hedged at $5 USD a pound til 2008.

It's the unhedged part I am more concerned.

Great support level, but that chart scares me. I'm out with a 3 cent profit.