SMY - Sally Malay Mining

[Halba]

I reckon 30,000t nickel discovery at deacon

Production for smy is rising

9000 to 12000 to 18000 to 20000-22000 in the next 4 yrs

Even if nickel price falls eps will stay around the 60c-70c range, an attractive 4.5 times earnings

This is why exploration hits impact on SMY the most, it stands to benefit the most as is highly leveraged to exploration success (as it impacts on their forward production profile)

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

This is my read on SMY ATM, should help a few punters. Both SMY and MCR have had a stellar 06, well run companies!.


SMY 07 Profile:

Sally Malay Mine: This has at least another 10 years in general terms.
SMY have found additional ore in the upper sections of Sally Malay in the east and the western zones, adding a few more years.
As such, The Sally Mallay ‘deposit’ would appear to have another four to five years
minimum mine life not including the Sally Malay Deeps.
SMY have been mining this ripper for two years and always find more ore to increase the reserves.

IMHO Corpenicus will be the next one to come on line for SMY, its close proximity to Sally Malay’s plant makes ramp up easy

Corpenicus: SMY could be in a position to start pre-strip in the next dry
season and get into production in the second half of 2007. It’s a tight schedule,
but it is possible. That could mean first ore into the Sally Malay mill by the
September quarter 2007.

SMY Tonnages: SMY should produce close to 12,500 tonnes of Nickel IC and ore in 06/07.
With Winner coming online around Sep 07. that should take Lanfranchi
up to a rate exceeding 7,500 tonnes of contained nickel per annum.
If Corpenicus comes online (ML’s approved) SMY should nudge past 16,000 tn of Nickle IC , in 07/08


I agree that recent Deakin results were a positive but SMY for the most part come up trumps on exploration plays.


As for the reason for their recent share price rise, insto’s are taking positions and most of the profit takers from recent months are probably out….simple. SMY’s forward earnings/Management performance/Exploration plays have been known for some time, as has Nickle’s tightness as a commodity.

 

[porkpie324]

Good analysis freeballer, and look at the price action today, JBM & MRE down, IGO,MCR&SMY up. My IGO positions looking good all long at about $3.80. porkpie

 

[rub92me]

SMY has consolidated nicely above $3 in the past 2 weeks, with an all time high close today. Recent Deakin drill results were again excellent. These guys haven't put a foot wrong in the past 12 months, and with continuing strong nickel prices I think there is significant further upside in the next couple of years.

 

[michael_selway]

SMY has consolidated nicely above $3 in the past 2 weeks, with an all time high close today. Recent Deakin drill results were again excellent. These guys haven't put a foot wrong in the past 12 months, and with continuing strong nickel prices I think there is significant further upside in the next couple of years.

yeah not bad

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 31.5 9.9 159.9%
Year Ending 30-06-08 65.8 4.8 108.9%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 12.1 31.5 65.8 58.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[Seneca60BC]

Went past $4 - good buy still?

 

[Halba]

Deacon looks awesome. Look at the widths and grade of mineralisation.

Somebody is talking $4.50 plus.

SMY mineral discovery of the yr?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

This is my read on SMY ATM, should help a few punters. Both SMY and MCR have had a stellar 06, well run companies!.


SMY 07 Profile:

Sally Malay Mine: This has at least another 10 years in general terms.
SMY have found additional ore in the upper sections of Sally Malay in the east and the western zones, adding a few more years.
As such, The Sally Mallay ‘deposit’ would appear to have another four to five years
minimum mine life not including the Sally Malay Deeps.
SMY have been mining this ripper for two years and always find more ore to increase the reserves.

IMHO Corpenicus will be the next one to come on line for SMY, its close proximity to Sally Malay’s plant makes ramp up easy

Corpenicus: SMY could be in a position to start pre-strip in the next dry
season and get into production in the second half of 2007. It’s a tight schedule,
but it is possible. That could mean first ore into the Sally Malay mill by the
September quarter 2007.

SMY Tonnages: SMY should produce close to 12,500 tonnes of Nickel IC and ore in 06/07.
With Winner coming online around Sep 07. that should take Lanfranchi
up to a rate exceeding 7,500 tonnes of contained nickel per annum.
If Corpenicus comes online (ML’s approved) SMY should nudge past 16,000 tn of Nickle IC , in 07/08


I agree that recent Deakin results were a positive but SMY for the most part come up trumps on exploration plays.


As for the reason for their recent share price rise, insto’s are taking positions and most of the profit takers from recent months are probably out….simple. SMY’s forward earnings/Management performance/Exploration plays have been known for some time, as has Nickle’s tightness as a commodity.

SMY look like trumping the previous Septembers forecast.

SMY announcement just out Winner resource upgraded, IC upped 13 percent (online August)

SMY are a forward production cash cow, 07/08 will see thier production exceed the likes of MCR and IGO by 30 percent odd.........and some dividends

 

[prophet174]

SMY look like trumping the previous Septembers forecast.

SMY announcement just out Winner resource upgraded, IC upped 13 percent (online August)

SMY are a forward production cash cow, 07/08 will see thier production exceed the likes of MCR and IGO by 30 percent odd.........and some dividends

Great run today...looks like everyone read your post over easter...

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Deakin upgraded again, 60k NI/2.4B in ground value!

If Corpicenus comes online in 07 should see full capacity of 950k through the mill at Sally Mallay

Lanfranchi uses the Kambalda (BHP) Concentrator so recent Deakin resource upgrades present no SMY mill pressures.

Thats not to mention resource upgrades at Winner and Helmut and first ore out of Winner in August.

SMY have an outstanding forward production profile and have easily now surpassed MCR, JBM and IGO on mine life and aren't far off Lion Ore none are even close to the NI production levels of SMY for 07/08.




Deakin Announcement Link
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070416/pdf/00711549.pdf

 

[chops_a_must]

Deakin upgraded again, 60k NI/2.4B in ground value!

If Corpicenus comes online in 07 should see full capacity of 950k through the mill at Sally Mallay

Lanfranchi uses the Kambalda (BHP) Concentrator so recent Deakin resource upgrades present no SMY mill pressures.

Thats not to mention resource upgrades at Winner and Helmut and first ore out of Winner in August.

SMY have an outstanding forward production profile and have easily now surpassed MCR, JBM and IGO on mine life and aren't far off Lion Ore none are even close to the NI production levels of SMY for 07/08.




Deakin Announcement Link
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070416/pdf/00711549.pdf

I can't understand how you could even say that something like AGM is even in the same league as SMY. These results are crazy stuff...

 

[chris1983]

I can't understand how you could even say that something like AGM is even in the same league as SMY. These results are crazy stuff...

AGM contains 158,000 tonnes Ni in resources. This will increase and is all in very close proximity to their mine. Operating costs are a lot cheaper in Tasmania than WA also. Their inground value for AGM is a lot larger than SMY. Yes SMY are producing right now but what happens when AGM starts producing? They will overtake SMY. Thats my guess.

"Allegiance Mining has made a significant nickel sulphide discovery at Avebury located 8km west of Zeehan on Tasmania's mineral rich West Coast. The mineralisation is essentially remobilised pentlandite and is of simple metallurgy, producing the world's highest grade nickel sulphide concentrate."

 

[chops_a_must]

Ah yeah.

Well, if you can see the links between Poseidon and AGM, and still see nothing, then good luck to you.

Like I said in the AGM thread, SMY will be producing at around 20,000 tonnes P/A. That is about 3 times the amount that AGM will be doing. You need to do the figures based on that. If we valued every company on in ground resource rather than production, we would have a very strange market.

 

[chris1983]

Ah yeah.

Well, if you can see the links between Poseidon and AGM, and still see nothing, then good luck to you.

Like I said in the AGM thread, SMY will be producing at around 20,000 tonnes P/A. That is about 3 times the amount that AGM will be doing. You need to do the figures based on that. If we valued every company on in ground resource rather than production, we would have a very strange market.

AGM's is onsold Whats to stop AGM from ramping up production further if their resource continues to grow. We will let this rest for the time being..but we will monitor market caps and see what happens.

 

[chops_a_must]

AGM's is onsold Whats to stop AGM from ramping up production further if their resource continues to grow. We will let this rest for the time being..but we will monitor market caps and see what happens.

See, I don't think their resources are as good as speculated on. I'm confused as to how you can do calculations on figures in excess of 158,000 tonnes etc when their resource is actually DECREASING. Any valuations at this stage should only be taking into account the 38,900t of contained nickel. Especially as sulphide ores normally are only viable above 6% let alone below 1.

And what's this? Tony Howland-Rose playing around with results again? NEVER!!!! Where have I heard this before!

However, Allegiance said that due to its adoption of "more stringent resource classification procedures", some of the resources at Avebury that were previously included in the indicated category had been reclassified as inferred resources.

This brings its ore reserves at the mine to 38,900t contained nickel in 3.35Mt of ore at 1.16% nickel with an 0.85% nickel cut-off grade. Last year, the company estimated it had 51,000t of contained nickel at the same cut off grade.

http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=97153&sectionsource=s0

 

[gringokonyo]

Especially as sulphide ores normally are only viable above 6% let alone below 1.

I'm not sure if your statement is correct. I found this article that suggests otherwise.

http://www.minerals.org.au/education/secondary/secondary_resources/factsheets/nickel

In the examples provided in the article, the highest grades of nickel concentrate are obtained from lower grade of Ni content in the ore. I'm not sure how that works out.

I'm no expert on the ore processing, so perhaps this is irrelevant to your comment that Sulphide is only viable above 6%.

Quote from the article:

After mining, the sulphide ores are transported to a concentrator to upgrade their nickel content. The ores are first crushed and ground, liberating the sulphide minerals from worthless rock, or gangue. The sulphide minerals are then separated from the gangue, by flotation, and dried.

Ores mined at Kambalda grade about 3% Ni content and the concentrates produced after treatment in the concentrator grade around 11% Ni. By comparison, Leinster ores contain about 2% Ni and concentrates produced there have about 12% Ni. Mt Keith ore grades at 0.6% and concentrates at 20% Ni.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Good support for SMY today off the break, decent volume and those taking profits short, soaked up!.

Thin spreads and no real resistance, should see some positive momentum if general market sentiment......... dosen't go south .

 

[PeterPan]

Hi Freeballing,

As you know I'm new of the market/jargon. What do you mean by "this spreads" for SMY?

Many thanks
Cheers
PeterPan

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

*bump*

SMY seems to be in a downtrend at the moment any thoughts why?

It's a stock that i've just started looking at, amongst a few others such as OXR

 

[rederob]

*bump*

SMY seems to be in a downtrend at the moment any thoughts why?

It's a stock that i've just started looking at, amongst a few others such as OXR

TBI
I think that nickel's 20% price decline from its recent highs is a BIG factor.
Although I am a BIG nickel fan, I will not be surprised to see prices dip a heck of a lot further in weeks to come.
Nevertheless, in the longer term expect this kind of volatility as inventories build, and decline, again and again.