Silver

[mullokintyre]

Silver now sub 20 USD.
Makes no economic sense, but the market is never wrong.
Holding off buying again, I want to see some further drops.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

From Schiff gold

They expect this year to increase further by 16%.

The Indian governments crackdown on gold has shifted the merchants to a greater volume of SIlver, and with mine production only projected to increase by 1%, the global silver market is forecast to record a second consecutive annual deficit in 2022. At 194 million ounces, this will be a multi-decade high and four times the level seen in 2021.
Mick

A look at the most recent PM stocks at the LBMA shows a continuing decline in both Gold and Silver, but the decline of stock levels of Silver is sees silver is at a 7 year low.
This is despite continuing attack on the price of silver, as well as increasing demand.


Not that the run up in gold stocks was much higher percentage wise than for silver, but the decline in silver stocks was much greater percentage wise.

I have started putting my toes back into the silver market based on the belief that the recent lows that went sub 20USD will be unlikely to be reached for some considerable time.

Mick

 

[Sean K]

Nice jump in gold overnight but silver up 4%. Yikes. Might be testing the downward trend. Just wish there were some decent silver stocks on the ASX...

 

[bux2000]

Could I just ask a question please.

When buying physical Silver it appears you pay a premium of around 10 % but with gold the premium is much less.
Am I seeing this correctly or is there something I am not seeing.

Thanks for your time

bux

 

[finicky]

It's so long ago that I bought Ag that it's hazy but I think that's correct. The dealer chain has to make its commissions on handling and transactions so those are going to be relatively higher for silver relative to its value. Also of course silver is far more bulky relative to its monetary value so more demanding to handle and store?

 

[mullokintyre]

Could I just ask a question please.

When buying physical Silver it appears you pay a premium of around 10 % but with gold the premium is much less.
Am I seeing this correctly or is there something I am not seeing.

Thanks for your time

bux

The larger the size of the ingots or bars, the lower the premium.
Buying coins is probably not the best way to buy silver, as the premium per unit is highest.
25KG bars is the lowest premium.
When you compare the selling price for PM's versus he buyback price, there is a hell of a premium.
Todays price from ABC Bullion gves silver at $37.27AUD .
ABC Bullion quotes $1283.20 for a 1kg cast bar if you wanted to buy one today, which translates . If you turned around and wanted to sell that same bar back, you will only get $1150.65.
Mick

 

[bux2000]

Thank you both for taking the time to reply.

All the best

bux

 

[finicky]

@bux2000 hey bux, I get the impression you're just starting out, or considering it. Why don't you check this forum out? https://www.silverstackers.com/forums/index.php?forums/australia-new-zealand-public.30/
It is mainly to accomodate peer to peer selling. Cuts out quite a bit of the dealer margin. Slightly risker I guess but I didn't have a significant problem and had many transactions.
Just a tip - don't get into any exotic stuff - too hard to shift - buy brute bullion (i.e bars) or rounds (bullion made to look like coins) or the best known coins like: U.S Eagles, Canadian Maples, Australian Kangaroos, Koalas, Austrian Philharmonics. Easly recognised by buyers, lots about, lower premium, more liquid when you want to sell. I'm outta all that now.

 

[bux2000]

Hi @finicky,

Thank you for passing on the benefit of your experience.

I may have been caught up in the precious metals hype but there appears to be a strong argument for holding physical both Gold and silver for alot of reasons, with a lot of reasons as to why silver may be a very good investment for the future. I didn't realise until recently how little silver reserves there actually is with something like 50% of recyclable silver going to land fills while pretty much all gold is recycled.
I have been buying physical silver quite recently or so learning as I go (and very late to the party). I was waiting for a pull back which hasn't happened. Your comments about buying bullion is fortuitous, could I ask if paying a premium for bars with particular marks (brands) on them makes any difference when you come to sell them ? I have worked out the premium for coins is cancelled when you come to sell them.

I know you have spent and continue to spend alot of time following companies with exposure to precious metals and with the very recent upturn in this sector just over the last few days.

It would appear SVL, MKR, AQI, and IVR have caught the attention of investors.

It would appear also AMI, BC8, GOR, BCN, RED the list goes on also showing signs of life.

I have been reading your posts now for a long time and with what I took from your comment

I'm outta all that now.

Can I ask from the benefit you have of hindsight and the obvious been there done that, would you feel investing in Companies with exposure to precious metals rather than physical or perhaps a mixture of both.

Thanks again for your time

bux

 

[bux2000]

Yes I know

The above is a classic case of FOMO combined with Gold Fever.

This morning I have sat on a rock and watched the Sunrise as it will again tomorrow and the next morning etc. etc.

I have my composure back.

All the best

bux

 

[finicky]

@bux2000 I will be trying to answer your queries later. I'm in a bit of a quandary as to what to say about silver these days. I still have 'collectable' silver perth mint kookaburras sitting in my dealer's vault in Melbourne (Goldstackers). Cost a premium. I have to pay storage every month and they've been there for more than a decade. If I sold them back to the dealer he would pay less than spot. So am I a fan of physical, nope. More later ?

 

[finicky]

Another thing that happened with physical is that I had a stash at my family's home. I got paranoid about it as a couple of people who posted at Silverstackers got burgled with obvious aforeknowledge. First I started burying it in different places but I was going through stress at the time and was resorting to substance relief and felt I'd forgotten some of the burial spots. So I got rid of most of it. Had to pay a courier to Brisbane from the Sunshine coast which cost a lot because silver is heavy and bulky. I didn't trust the courier either - very sketchy guy. In the end I made a paltry profit after tax for a vexatious asset that I'd held for many years. Dead money and hassle.

 

[finicky]

is paying a premium for bars with particular marks (brands) on them makes any difference when you come to sell them ?

Yes imo for brands it makes them more recognisable but for antique or novelty bars I wouldn't bother myself. The main game is ozs of silver.

companies with exposure to precious metals

I'm still into that but they can be ruinous if you are unlucky and make the wrong picks, e.g I went hard into Dacian (DCN). The explorers are even more risky. Big rewards if lucky. It's luck of the draw almost. I take advice from a couple of pros these days. Greg Canavan at Fat Tails Investment Advisory and Between the Lines Finance on Patreon. Of the producers I'm in NST, RMS, RRL, WAF, SSR but have largely given up trying to analyse their prospects - boom or bust could happen. The companies building gold plants or providing services are probably a safer bet. I have a few shares in GR Engineering (GNG) but I got them a long time ago and cheaper than now - they've paid great steady ff dividends and seem to go from strength to strength). Another company in that sector is LYL.

 

[Sean K]

@bux2000 I will be trying to answer your queries later. I'm in a bit of a quandary as to what to say about silver these days. I still have 'collectable' silver perth mint kookaburras sitting in my dealer's vault in Melbourne (Goldstackers). Cost a premium. I have to pay storage every month and they've been there for more than a decade. If I sold them back to the dealer he would pay less than spot. So am I a fan of physical, nope. More later ?

Haven't you got a vault in the basement at home?

 

[finicky]

At least one of the guys ripped off that posted on silverstackers had his own bolted down safe. Showed pics of it ripped apart. He was a young army guy and had invested mostly in p.ms. We did a whip around to take some of the edge off.

 

[bux2000]

Thanks @finicky ,

It is very handy to draw on the experience of others and I do appreciate your honesty.

Thanks for your replies, maybe need to rethink the depth of my holes and buy a GPS.

Might keep the coordinates in the safe...............now where to put the combination .


All the best

bux

 

[mullokintyre]

Thanks @finicky ,

It is very handy to draw on the experience of others and I do appreciate your honesty.

Thanks for your replies, maybe need to rethink the depth of my holes and buy a GPS.

Might keep the coordinates in the safe...............now where to put the combination .


All the best

bux

Tattoo the combo on your butt cheeks.
No one is ever going to look there.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Its been said many times before, but perhaps at last it is time for silver to shine?
From Schiffgold

Silver demand set a record in every category last year based on final data released by the Silver Institute this week.

Total global silver demand in 2022 came in at a record $1.242 billion ounces. This represented an 18% increase in silver demand over 2021.

Net physical silver investment rose for a fifth consecutive year to a new high of 332.9 million ounces. Silver investment in India charted a staggering 188% increase over 2021 with lower prices and bargain hunting driving demand higher. There was modest demand growth in the US despite ongoing supply shortages that drove premiums exceptionally high – especially on American Silver Eagle coins.

Industrial demand posted a record of 556.5 million ounces in 2022. Green energy initiatives helped drive industrial offtake higher. Photovoltaics (PV) alone consumed 140.3 million ounces of silver.

Demand for silver in the solar energy sector is expected to continue to grow. According to a study by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027. And by 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves.

Electrification within the automotive segment, along with other power generation and distribution investments also supported industrial demand.

Silver jewelry fabrication increased by 29% year-on-year to a record 234.1 million ounces. India led the way, with demand doubling year on year.

Meanwhile, silverware demand in 2022 charted an even bigger spike of 80% to 73.5 million ounces, another record high.

While demand for silver soared, supply was flat last year.
Mine output dropped by 0.6% to 822.4 million ounces. Production from primary silver mines was almost flat year-on-year, rising by just 0.1% to 228.2 million ounces. Lower by-product output from lead and zinc mines, particularly in China and Peru, drove overall mine output down.

A modest increase in recycling offset the decrease in mine output.

Record global silver demand and a lack of supply upside contributed to last year’s 237.7 million ounce market deficit. It was the second consecutive annual deficit in a row. The Silver Institute called it “possibly the most significant deficit on record.” It also noted that “the combined shortfalls of the previous two years comfortably offset the cumulative surpluses of the last 11 years.”

Looking ahead to 2023, the Silver Institute projected “this year is expected to be another of solid silver demand. Industrial fabrication should reach an all-time high, boosted by continued gains in the PV market and healthy offtake from other industrial segments.”

So , if thats not a typo, a demand of 1.24 Billion ounces versus mine output of 822 million ounces, leaves 400 million ounces to be accounted for , either by recycling or being taken out of long term storage.
A few more years like that and we may have another bull run in Silver.
Mick

 

[finicky]

Mummified captain found in 'ghost ship' he sailed in for seven years ..

 

[mullokintyre]

Mummified captain found in 'ghost ship' he sailed in for seven years ..

View attachment 156048

Too deep for me @finicky
Mick