SGP - Stockland Group

[So_Cynical]

(27th-May-2011) Yep got 2070 shares on Monday and in a week or so ill find put how much they cost me i can see no realistic reason why the SP will stay this low for any significant length of time...SGP is just another big real estate stock and we have both been successfully trading the property stocks in this sideways market for a long time now.

Happy to hold till SGP comes good.

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SGP has broken out upwards from the recent pennant, spiking over the last three days to tap $3.39 interday today before closing on $3.36. Not a bad recovery for a share that started off the month at $3.18. A 5%+ kick start to the month, tomorrow will be very interesting as to whether the share price continues to rise; consolidates at this level; or retraces as investors lock in their profits for the weekend.

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I need SGP to get to 3.55 so i can get out of my trade in profit....jezz would that be nice after 16 months in.

 

[nulla nulla]

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I need SGP to get to 3.55 so i can get out of my trade in profit....jezz would that be nice after 16 months in.

Arrrrrrr....but you've got a few nice dividends for your trouble along the way though.
Did you add to your parcel when it spiked down to $2.91? (Low cost Entry Accumulation and all).

 

[So_Cynical]

Arrrrrrr....but you've got a few nice dividends for your trouble along the way though.
Did you add to your parcel when it spiked down to $2.91? (Low cost Entry Accumulation and all).

I did better than $2.91 i pretty much nailed the bottom at $2.72 in Aug last year...now i wouldn't be much of a low cost averager if i didn't now would i ~ fortunately im a poor low cost averager so i didn't have enough funds to take a very big bite the second time round....so i have to sell the bulk of the first parcel for a profit for my strategy to work.

And $3.55 will do nicely.

 

[nulla nulla]

sgp closed out the week at $3.35. Fantastic jump for the week having closed out last week at $3.18. The open on Friday at $3.40 hopefully is a sign of things to come. This week will be interesting, there is still room for sgp to close the gap on nta and yield must still be attractive to the investors looking for buy and holds (?).



I will be watching for a re-entry oportunity having sold my parcels in the run ups on Tuesday and Thursday. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

From $3.35 on Fridays close last week, sgp opened today at $3.23 then rallied up to test $3.32 before managing to hold $3.30 in the close.



Horrible chart, can't work out if is about to break above $3.32 or retest lower levels. The macd chart suggests lower levels while the RSI chart suggest a bounce? Good luck. I'm still watching and waiting for a re-entry level.

 

[nulla nulla]

Not only did sgp bounce off the low of Thursday 20 September it tested $3.40 interday on Friday before closing out the week at $3.34. A good week for longer term sgp holders and those fortunate enough to jump on board during last weeks lows (not me).



The future for sgp is hard to see in my crystal ball, too many clouds. However I have chosen sgp again for the October stock picking competion. I'd like to think it has another 1.5% - 2% upside as, hopefully, it continues to narrow the gap to nta and return to the $3.40+ trading range area. As always, what would I know, I'm often wrong. D.Y.O.R. and good luck



PS: I like the 3 year chart as a better indicator as to where sgp may be heading.

 

[nulla nulla]

Interday high (so far) of $3.535. Pretty solid jump 3 days into the month. Looks like the investors see the benefit of low interest rates to the residential (and non residential) property sector.

 

[So_Cynical]

Interday high (so far) of $3.535. Pretty solid jump 3 days into the month. Looks like the investors see the benefit of low interest rates to the residential (and non residential) property sector.

Sell order has been placed at $3.60 go the rally.

 

[nulla nulla]

Sell order has been placed at $3.60 go the rally.

SGP hel $3.50 in the close. It is way ahead of my expectations for the month. Early days yet but I would not be surprised to see sgp achieve your sell target in the next couple of weeks, even if it is only in the course of an interday spike. I'm still looking for a re-entry.

 

[nulla nulla]

Previous spikes have inevitably been followed by a return to the base, so it might pay to place a low ball bid arround the $3.27 - $3.28 area. The recent trend appears to be upward, encouraging me to consider that sgp will work its way back into the $3.50+ area.



This is an opinion only and should not be relied on when making investment decisions. As always. D.Y.O.R and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Sell order has been placed at $3.60 go the rally.

Not quite there yet SC but another leap like todays will see you in the money.

 

[So_Cynical]

Not quite there yet SC but another leap like todays will see you in the money.

Got to 3.60 a couple of times today and i didn't get filled...and tomorrows another day. would be nice to wrap this up.

 

[Ves]

Got to 3.60 a couple of times today and i didn't get filled...and tomorrows another day. would be nice to wrap this up.

Why quibble over a few cents?

 

[So_Cynical]

Why quibble over a few cents?

Yeah i know...but im looking at marginal profit as it is, and i have found that 9 times outa 10 the SP will go well past my sell price anyway given time...but as usual i would hate to see the SP fall back and me miss out on a long awaited exit.

 

[So_Cynical]

Got to 3.60 a couple of times today and i didn't get filled...and tomorrows another day. would be nice to wrap this up.

Out Today at 3.60 for a trade profit per share of 11 cents (2.93%) for holding 17 months add in distributions of almost 30c per share and it makes the whole exercise seem a little more worthwhile, then add in the fact that the average price per share of the remaining SGP holdings in my super portfolio is $3 and it makes it look even more worthwhile...open profit of 20%

A 2 year chart below of my activities and the SP performance.
~

 

[nulla nulla]

Ya done good SC. Just out of interest, where do you see it going now?

 

[So_Cynical]

Just out of interest, where do you see it going now?

If the general market rally continues and end of the world/Euro talk continues to subside then $3.90 > $4 is certainly possible, on the other hand if end of the world/Euro talk intensifies we could easily go back to where we were 12 months ago.

Personally i don't care and make no predictions other than the prediction i made on this forum 2 or 3 years ago..that the market (ASX200) will continue to range sideways, broadly between 3800 and 4800 (cant remember the exact numbers)

Ill just keep buying the lows and selling them for more than i paid for em.

 

[nulla nulla]

Ill just keep buying the lows and selling them for more than i paid for em.

Works for me too. Though I suspect my hold timing may be more short term than yours. However I am probably more risk adverse than I need to be. Personally I would like to see sgp retrace a litle from here rather than move into the premium to nta price range. Gives me more comfort for getting on board.

SGP
Date:	Closing 12-10-2012
Closing Price	3.62
Issued Shares	2,203,547,228
Capital	7,976,840,965
Earnings $	0.2110
Dist $	0.24
Yield %	6.63%
P/E	17.16
NTA $	3.68
Discount to NTA	1.63%

[td Share: [/td]

The gap between the nta and the share price is only $0.06 and while the yield at 6.63% is good the p/e ratio is creeping up at 17.16 times earnings. It is hard to for me to justify the market paying a premium when you consider that "Residential" and "Retail" are still lagging in the present economy.

 

[nulla nulla]

A slight correction this week when the Profit update (downgrade) was released . I thought most of the information provided was already in the market place but the volumes on Wednesday suggest someone thought it was time to jump ship. Opening on Wednesday at $3.42, sgp dropped to $3.37 before good support pushed trading back up to the $3.41 - $3.42 range. Volumes on wednesday were high but softer on Thursday & Friday with the share price pushed back up to close for the week at $3.46.



SGP indicated that they would hold the current distribution levels, which means holders should receive $0.12 per share in the December 2012 distribution. As always, do your own research and good luck.

 

[So_Cynical]

Works for me too. Though I suspect my hold timing may be more short term than yours. However I am probably more risk adverse than I need to be. Personally I would like to see sgp retrace a litle from here rather than move into the premium to nta price range. Gives me more comfort for getting on board.

Agree totally, we are at the top end of the range for sure and not a place where i would be buying...as far as im concerned upwards of 3.50 is the sell zone.

Interesting that we can both be involved with the same stocks (DXS & SGP) over a number of years, both profitable and yet both using different time frames, with different risk profiles and profit objectives....the kids could learn a lot, yet i doubt they will.