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SGP - Stockland Group

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SGP hit an interday high of $3.54 on 8 December 2011 then drifted down. SGP looked like it was going to break out upward again through $3.20 arround 22 March but the media release on 27 March 2012 in respect of the deteriation in their revenue forecast saw an immediate sell down.

Despite the assurance that the impact on the bottom line was minimal and there would be no reduction in the forthcomming dividend, the share price fell to a low of $2.91.

It is worth noting that at $2.91 sgp is trading at a discount of 21% to the nta of $3.69, further the yearly dividend confirmed at $0.24 represents a yield of 8.25%. The revised earnings forecast of $0.305 per share means the price earnings multiple is only 9.54 times compared with a market norm of arround 12. All-in-all the share appears to be undervalued even at the Friday close of $2.99.



The forthcomming dividend (End of May payable in August) plus the potential upside of capital gain on a rebound to the $3.10 - $3.21+ area had enough appeal for me to enter. Then again I may be wrong, sgp has tested the $2.70 range before. Also I may be biased as I chose sgp for this months stock tipping competition. As always dyor .
 
If long, you would, however, want 3.00 not to be forming new upside resistance and encouraging another leg down where even better value may eventuate during the April/May excitement!!
 
$3.00 does seem to be a current/recent level of resistance but I thought the kick above $2.94 was fairly strong. I suspect $3.05 (a previous support level) will be the next level of resistance and then hopefully $3.16. Of course if it doesn't kick up to $3.05, then $2.91 and lower awaits.
 
Stockland kicked back nicely to hit $3.32 on intraday trading on Thursday this week then dropped back to close at $3.22 on Friday. Hopefully the area $3.19-$3.21 will be a new support level having previously been a resistance level.

SGP is still trading at a hefty discount to NTA and has one off the lowest p/e ratios of all the reits. Recent announcements of earnings down grades were offset somewhat with the latest interest rate cut of 50 points by the RBA, improving the prospects of sgp returning to the $3.42 levels of January this year, rather than retreating to the low $3.00 area.



IMO, the rate cut and the confirmation that sgp will still be paying approximately $0.12 distribution for June makes sgp worth running your ruler over. As always do your own research.
 
The share price dip back to $3.16-$3.17 through the week, on international instability, was too good to pass up in my opinion and I jumped in for two more parcels. The rebound to close on $3.24 at the end of the week bodes well for next week in the lead up to the dividend announcement.



It would not surprise me to see sgp retest the $3.30 level in the short term and the $3.42 level soon after. It will be interesting to see how many super funds decide to reweight their portfolios before June 30 and decide sgp should be included (particularly with the $0.12 distribution on offer).

As always , do your own research.
 
Interesting week. The chart says it all. Bounced back up to $3.35 then finished the week in the big sell off at $3.16 (after touching $3.14 interday).



Amazing trade oportunitites if you are getting in on the lows and out on the highs (or somewhere inbetween in my case) but in this euro demolition charged environment there is always an element of risk that at some point the entry you take may prove to be one you should have avoided.

The yield, p/e, discount to nta and the relative strength of sgp make these levels fairly attractive to me (opportunity for a sit and hold for the distribution of $0.12 ex-div in June, combined with the potential to recover to somewhere between $3.21 and $3.42+).

There is always an element of risk. The downside of sgp is the Housing industry problems (St Hilliers anyone?), falling property prices and the two speed economy feeling the impact of tightened spending v's savings. Meanwhile sgp is cutting costs, cutting staff and focusing on the buyback, improving shareholder returns and value.

Upside v's downside, do your research. IMO sgp has one of the lowest p/e ratio's, one of the better yields and also a proven, focused management. Good luck
 
I would like to thank every body that bought sgp during may. As a result of their hard work my stock tipping entry held second place at end of trade on 31/5/2012 (one of only two shares in the competiton in profit for the month) and Joe has very kindly forwarded $50.00 to me .

Like nearly every other share in the ASX, sgp has been bouncing arround providing plenty of entry/exit opportunities. Yesterday we were looking to unload at $3.27 the parcel purchased last month at $3.20. Despite the volume and demand, the share price couldn't get through $3.26. Accordingly we were very surprised and pleased when sgp opened at $3.28 today and our parcel was sold.



With the subsequent slide we are now looking for a re-entry. DYOR & good luck.
 
Another week and another trade, back in at $3.20 and out at $3.26. There appears to be some support at $3.20, possibly underwritten by the forthcoming distribution (Due to go ex entitlement on or about Monday 25/6/12) which hasn't been announced yet but probably will be on Monday 17th.



Resistance appears to be around the $3.27 level. I suspect there may be another small lift when the distribution is announced but don't hold me to it. I find it difficult to believe that the distribution of $0.12 is already factored into the share price at $3.20? As always d.y.o. research and good luck.
 
blue0810 said:
Interesting to see SGP in green :
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/competition/
Click to expand...

Has been in the green for the last three months, since it bounced off $2.91. Climbed back to around $3.29 then oscillated between $3.14 and $3.28. Nice daily spread, fair volumes and currently under-written by an impending distribution announcement.

Will probably drop by the distribution amount when it goes ex-div before the end of this month and retreat to the $3.08 - $3.16 area for a bit?
 
A great week for SGP. Monday saw the share price open at $3.24, drop to $3.20, rise to $3.30 then close on $3.28. A $0.10 spread through the day for confident day traders. SGP maintained this sort of action through the week shrugging off all the negative market news (including the worst housing starts report in NSW since 1946) and hit a high for the week of $3.33. before closing out on Friday at $3.29.



On Monday 25/6/2012 I believe sgp goes ex-div and I expect the share price to drop by the distribution expectation of $0.12, if not a little more. Based on last weeks activity sgp could drop to the range $3.08-$3.17. It will be interesting to see if the recent levels of support (volumes) is maintained or if there is a cooling off after going ex-div.
 
The fall, after going ex-div, was pretty much in line with expectations, however it was surprising that sgp did not rally and hold along with the other reit shares Wednesday to Thursday. The fall to $3.06 was more than I anticipated and although it retested $3.17 the drop back to close on $3.09 was disappointing.



I will be looking for sgp to rebound from here to the $3.20+ area, however a testing of the $3.05 support area is also on the cards. If it doesn't find support at the $3.05 point then the next support level is arround the $3.00 mark. Bit of an oversell imo. Usually this share ranks higher than gpt but the relationship appears to heve been inverted this week. As always d.y.o.r, all care no responsibility etc.
 
A rebound to $3.17 - $3.18 was completely washed away with the crash back to $3.11-$3.12 on thursday followed by a further slump to the close of $3.09 on Friday. The volumes of turnover were nothing to get excited about. It had the appearance of drifting down on low volumes with the buyers comming in at the lower end of the trading (to accumulate?).



An interesting pennant appears to be forming. The two year chart shows a share price slide from the highs of 2010 where sgp traded at a premium to the nta, to the current discount to nta. The more recent trading (for the last 11 months) shows sgp trying to rally. It appears that sgp is reaching a point where it will break out from the pennant but who is game to call it upward or further down? Personally I believe it is overdue for a bounce back to the $3.40 area but I will sell quick enough if it looks like tracking back down the the lows of $2.91. If it retests the lows of last August I will re mortgage the house and buy a truckload. As always D.Y.O.R and good luck.
 
SGP opened on Monday at $3.07, down a further two (2) cents on the close off of Friday 6/7/12. There was weak support during the day which improved on Tuesday with the share price recovering to $3.13. On Wednesday the initial trading was slow and sgp did not look like going anywhere, then it suddenly took off. Buyers came out of the wood work and volumes jumped. It look like it was the must have reit share of the day. I couldn't find any news that was driving the price up, particulalry in the last half hour. In the closing auction SGP dropped back from $3.18 to close the day on $3.16.



On Thursday SGP opened strongly and we let some parcels go that we had picked up in the previous weeks sell down (Thursday/Friday). I immeadiately put some low ball bids back in the buy queue and was stunned when they got filled late in the day. The Thursady sell down being a complete reversal of Wednesdays buy up, sgp closed on $3.09, down $0.07 (2%) in one day. On Friday, SGP jumped to $3.19 (up 3%) soon after opening & we locked in the gains on the previous days buys. Crazy not to take the day trade and wait for another entry. Bids at our entry buy targets are already in the queue. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.
 
Having closed out all our parcels on Friday 13-7-12 in the sub $3.19 range we missed the flow on to the recent highs of $3.25. Not to worry, we threw some low-ball bids in the queue at $3.12, $3.11, $3.10 and $3.09 for when this recent spurt settles back.
Todays announcement to the market advised that Mr Mathew Quin MD has tendered his resignation to be effective by February 2013. Some one decided this was terrible and pushed the opening price down. Shortly before the open it looked like sgp would open at $3.09 and all of our low-ball bids would be filled. Unfortunately, for us, other investors saw the opportunity and pushed the open back up to $3.12. With one parcel filled at $3.12 and another one partially filled at $3.11 you can imagine I was very happy when sgp hit our sell price of $3.21 within 27 minutes of opening. The partial fill went later in the day at $3.22.



Can't work out if I should I send Mr Quin a cask of Carpel Gumnuts Darlinghurst Shiraz or not. Decisions, decisions . Naturally I have reinstated further low-ball bids. Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
 
From an interday low of $3.11 on 25 July 2012 sgp went on a skyrocket ride to peak at $3.44 (interday) on 7 August 2012. In just 9 trading days sgp jumped more than 10%. This remarkable little feat came after the announcement that Mr Quinn would retire before February 2012 and the forward warning that this years result would be lower than expected.

Part of the jump can be attributed to the sharemarket swing to higher yielding shares during that 9 days, pumping up the prices of reit's with yields better than 6% allong with Banks, Telstra and Woolworths. Yesterday, the results for 2012 were released and reality set in with a thump. Yes the dividend due this month would be maintained at $0.12; Yes the dividend going forward for 2013 would be maintained at $0.24p.a; Yes this years results were down across the board (apparently worse than analyst expectation); and no there is no certainty that the 2013 results will improve. Not good and the market reacted by selling sgp down to as low as $3.21 before closing for the day on $3.24 after turnover of higher than normal volume.



Today will probably see sgp push lower. Pity because it is trading at the lowest of the reit's (other than fkp) in relation to its' nta and is one of the lowest p/e reit's as well. The bad news also seemed to have a contagious effect on other key reit's such as cpa, dxs, iof etc with them all coming off their recent highs. Their drops were minor compared to sgp, some of the drop could be investors regaining some confidence in the market and switching back to the more risky resource sector but not all of it.
 
SGP did indeed push lower dropping to an interday low of $3.16, jumping to an open of $3.26 the following day then oscilating between $3.17 and $3.23 for the remainder of the week.



The close on friday at $3.22 was a good sign as the last trade before the auction was at $3.20. Good volume in the close also. Next week should be interesting, last week had the loose appearance of a pennant forming and their could be a breakout early this week. Picking which direction is the problem.
 
From an interday high of $3.25 shortly after open on Monday, sgp spent the week dithering between $3.18 and $3.23. The sell down in Fridays closing auction pushed sgp to close on a low for the day (week) of $3.16.



Bit of an oversell in my opinion, but what would I know. Is it consolidating to bounce off a support level or preparing to break out downwards? For better or worse I bought in the closing auction at $3.16. D.Y.O.R & good luck. .
 
Okay, so I could have waited and bought it lower. However, sgp rebounded to finish the week at $3.18. Like a lot of others, I live in hope.



Personaly I think it can recover to move higher but what would I know. SGP continues to juggle assets, buy back shares, reduce costs and work toward consolidating value and improving returns. At a size-able discount to nta I think sgp is undervalued at a price less then $3.40. As always d.y.o.r.

ps: I took sgp in this months tipping competition again. I still think, right or wrong, there is scope for improvement.
 
SGP has broken out upwards from the recent pennant, spiking over the last three days to tap $3.39 interday today before closing on $3.36. Not a bad recovery for a share that started off the month at $3.18. A 5%+ kick start to the month, tomorrow will be very interesting as to whether the share price continues to rise; consolidates at this level; or retraces as investors lock in their profits for the weekend.

 
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