SDV - SciDev Limited

[wintermute]

juiceman, I'm a bit overweight on INL now too, after recently buying 20,000 more at 15c (which in hindsight was a bad decision, should have waited a bit longer!)

I agree on the metals forecasting, to me it seems that they are simply saying that prices always return to the mean, and that they are due to do so.... They are making the assumption that there will be a significant ramp up in production of zinc to match the demand (and perhaps that demand will fall off somewhat)... but what happens if the demand keeps growing?? I don't have a crystal ball, but having been to China, I don't see their appetite being satisfied any time soon, if anything I think demand will continue to increase
I think this paragraph from the report is an interesting one too.

Where we may be conservative:
! Our metals price outlook. If we assume flat future zinc
prices of US$1.50/lb, our DCF valuation triples to
~$75m. Currently, zinc inventories are at record low
levels, and there may be risk to the upside of our
forecast in the near term. For further discussion on our
zinc price outlook, see commodity section below.

If you do the sums on this, then the sp comes out at 23c as the NPV for the concentrate component goes from 25 Million to 75 million effectively taking the value to close to 150 Million instead of 100 Million (numbers all rounded for ease of interpretation ) And this STILL does not really take into account the upside potential of the technology, IHRP etc (though that do have 20 Million NPV stuffed in there to cover that).

Of course this is just another snippet of info from the report, and a balanced view can only be obtained by reading the whole report, and applying that against other information as well, after all that it could still be wrong But to me it seems that Maccas have pretty much ignored the IHRP as well as other things, but have put enough "but's" in the report to cover themselves should it outperform their "base case" analysis

Tony.

 

[Enumerate]

The key factor in the Macquarie report is the bearish outlook on the PoZ.

I have some issues with the "return to mean" idea they use to justify, overall, the forecast. The PoZ is often quoted as US$ per lb. Could it be that alot of the upside in the PoZ is due to a collapse in the US$? If this is the case and it would seem that expecting a significant recovery in the US$ is not something I would expect any time soon; I would not expect any "return to the mean" by the the end of the decade.

About the only "hard" figure you can trust on the PoZ is the LME inventory levels. There is a high inverse correlation between inventory and price. Inventories are at 5 year lows.

What about economic growth in China and India. The world is a different place from what it was 10 years ago. Zn, as a prime "infrastructure" metal, is in demand as the world invests at exponentially growing rates in "infrastructure".

Reading the Macquaire report - you would sell Intec, today. This is because of the PoZ forecast.

You would go out and SHORT Ni and Cu producers like there was no tomorrow. (Which is basically the attitude of the Macquarie report).

[My personal view is positive on Zn - to maintain current price levels. I see the price for this commodity demand side driven - rather than supply side. My view on Pb is similar. However, I do think Ni and Cu will endure some pain as I think these commodities are being driven by supply side constraints - which can be solved with new resource, alternative resource or substitution.]

 

[mango65]

Hi Enumerate,
Agreed there is nothing wrong with INL and the Macquarie report says so IF people will only study it. The price of zinc? Yes stockpiles are low but there is well over one million tonnes of zinc from new mines coming on-stream before 2009. Will China, India, and other developing countries keep pace with the increase? I don't know however; don't forget the USA is in a bit of a slump at the moment while Europe seems to be stirring. And then there is Japan. If all the above get moving then forget about a surplus of zinc in 2007 of 60 tonnes and even the 312 tonnes in 2008.(Macquarie report, p8.)
All I want is the Worley/Parsons' report!!!!!!
I feel sure that will put the cat amongst the waverers.

 

[moses]

Judging by the Neilson SMA chart there is a rising interest in INL suggesting we have a strong potential for a significant trend reversal. INL's price is up slightly today (3.7%) to 14c, so with a bit of luck INL may have bottomed out.

 

[juiceman]

Based on pre open bidding inl will move up again today
Volume is building and is starting to present a totally different picture, to that of late
Inl is up 7% off it's low and looks like going higher
Three up days in a row, have only occured once before in the last 12 mths
Bid to offer almost 2 to 1

 

[juiceman]

I think it's on
1 parcel for 1 mil in bid
Sp moved to .16 on volume, buyers moving up with sp,
3 to 1 bid/ask
Strange bidding of late, maybe ann out soon?
Looks like inside knowledge to me.
But be wary of pump and dump
Good luck to all.

 

[Awesomandy]

It's been moving up quite steadily earlier this morning, but it's looking like there's a little bit of resistance at 0.16. There's quite a chance that it may be just a pump and dump going on though, as INL was listed in (iirc) "Insider Trading" yesterday or the day before as a spec. buy.

 

[moses]

I just checked, you're right, INL is on the "Inside Trader" as the latest stock pick. However the reason they picked it is clear enough from their "Smart Money Analyser" chart posted previously on the thread, so I don't see this as a pump and dump. It looks as a genuine interest in accumulating INL for the last few weeks, and a strong signal that this stock has bottomed.

 

[moses]

...and besides, somebody just bought 700000 @16c, aka, $112k. Today's volume is looking great, 16c is all but cleared.

 

[Moneybags]

This stock is confusing as all hell. This thing has been trending down for an eternity then all of a sudden from no news it bounces like this.

Can someone please shed me some light. I've heard people talking manipulation, insider knowledge, tree shaking and that the fundamentals will win out in the end......blah, blah. Then the Mac report.........a huge dump.......and then off it goes. Very suspicous.

MB

 

[moses]

Check out the "ZINC metal for 2007" thread, the pundits seem to think that zinc is due for a rebound.

 

[CanOz]

This stock is confusing as all hell. This thing has been trending down for an eternity then all of a sudden from no news it bounces like this.

Can someone please shed me some light. I've heard people talking manipulation, insider knowledge, tree shaking and that the fundamentals will win out in the end......blah, blah. Then the Mac report.........a huge dump.......and then off it goes. Very suspicous.

MB

Keep in mind too that given the downtrend and then the selling climax a couple of days ago, the stock is held in tight supply. A small amount of demand can then have a dramatic effect on prices, then it can snowball quickly as traders etc. jump on.

When you see light in regards to supply and demand, things like this become less of a surprise and more of a liklihood.

Cheers,

 

[Moneybags]

Check out the "ZINC metal for 2007" thread, the pundits seem to think that zinc is due for a rebound.

OK Moses, did that, thanks. And there could be a correlation, after all LME stockpiles are dropping, however INL seems to only follow Zinc price when it comes off in the past. There have been countless days where Zinc was well up and INL slipping further.


MB

 

[Bazmate]

Damn, have a look at the buy side vs the sell side now..... has to be three times the amount of buyers to sellers.

Moses, This is the driver of your analysis right?

It seems to me like a really good indicator, however the only drama I see is that we cannot know how many are watching from the sidelines ready to pounce...

I picked up a little chunk this morning at 15c so we'll see how it goes

Baz

 

[juiceman]

This stock is confusing as all hell. This thing has been trending down for an eternity then all of a sudden from no news it bounces like this.

Can someone please shed me some light. I've heard people talking manipulation, insider knowledge, tree shaking and that the fundamentals will win out in the end......blah, blah. Then the Mac report.........a huge dump.......and then off it goes. Very suspicous.

MB

Outside of a pump and dump (which is looking less likely )
The answer's to your questions will be found, by going back over our previous posts.
2 or 3 pages should do the trick
Good luck, and enjoy

 

[mango65]

Outside of a pump and dump (which is looking less likely )
The answer's to your questions will be found, by going back over our previous posts.
2 or 3 pages should do the trick
Good luck, and enjoy

Really he/she needs to read the INL reports and presentations to see how good this company is.
Forget the neutral Macquatie report. Go deeper.

 

[juiceman]

Really he/she needs to read the INL reports and presentations to see how good this company is.
Forget the neutral Macquatie report. Go deeper.

I agree ( quote) go deeper
If a person were really interested, they could go further back in our asf postings
Might take awhile though

 

[Porper]

This stock is confusing as all hell. This thing has been trending down for an eternity then all of a sudden from no news it bounces like this.

Can someone please shed me some light. I've heard people talking manipulation, insider knowledge, tree shaking and that the fundamentals will win out in the end......blah, blah. Then the Mac report.........a huge dump.......and then off it goes. Very suspicous.

MB

I would be cautious, don't forget day traders will have seen the past couple of days action and will have been buying big.

There a re a lot of :sheep: on Hotcopper who will all be blindly following each other.

Having said that I like INL and have it in a long term account (looking 5 years ahead).

 

[Awesomandy]

I would be cautious, don't forget day traders will have seen the past couple of days action and will have been buying big.

I'm not sure if this is a big factor here, as it's been relatively quiet since around midday. There were a few trades here and there, hovering around the .16/.165 mark. It's true that there are quite a bit of buy pressure, but the orders haven't really moved up after the sp has gone past .155, which is a far cry from what has happened with the crazy rises of some other stocks as of late. It really seems to be not a pump and dump, which is a good thing. Although, personally, I'm not sure if I should take a little bit of profits (having bought in just the other day) or just leave them in for the ride.

 

[juiceman]

Last trades, or after market price might give us a clue?
For the record inl usually post ann's late in the day, or just after close