Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SDV - SciDev Limited

INL closed at .15 to-day
3 X ann's
Phillip Wood bought 18,000 at .145 :(
Ian Ross bought 150,000 at .145 :)
Trevor Jones bought 500,000 at .15 :D
1 day to go
 
I must say I was pretty pleased with yesterdays performance considering the XAO was down nearly 2%!! and closing at 15c today is even better :) I assume the 1 day to go, is till the end of tax loss selling for this financial year... director buys announced this afternoon make me feel better about my parcel at 15c too.

Tony.
 
Hi Tony glad you feel better about your buy
Trevor Jones held the least amount of inl shares, so the on market purchase is signifigent
Because of insider rules, i hope we don't have to wait too long for the good ann.
Got a parcel at .145 yesterday and some more after market at .15 to-day when i saw the late ann
On Tuesday Dave Sammut told me that next yr, they will not only build the IHRP plant, but commision it as well (think they had better get a move on)
The market is going to get a lot of news soon.

Now the questions;
How big is the plant
Have they sauced more EAFD or product to feed it
How much will it cost
Then the dollars, where will they come from
Borrow them? they will need a BFS and a good story for that
Or a CAPITAL RAISING + a good story
All's well, but i can smell some big ann's soon:D
Apart from the known facts, these are just my own thoughts
I would love some comments from you guys
Shredd me if you like, but let us know what you think:eek:
 
How significant is the Rio/Ivanhoe/Mongolian Govt Turquoise Hill (Oyu Tolgoi) project in Mongolia to INL??? Anyone?
As part of the draft agreement Ivanhoe is apparently required to build a copper smelter within 5 years.
Will this involve INL technology? Outotec technology?? Neither or a combination of INL Outotec? Consider the following...

May 2002 Australia's Intec and Ivanhoe Mines announced negotiated exclusive rights to use the already developed Intec copper/gold process under royalty-based licence on Oyu Tolgoi.
Ivanhoe at that time also negotiated licences for the variations of the Intec base metal process, in particular, Outokumpu HydroCopper process(now Outotec)
Ivanhoe remains a major shareholder of INL.
Intec & Outotec have recently announced a technology sharing & cooperation agreement
Adopting the Intec (& outotec) hydrometallurgy processes would allow Ivanhoe/Rio to produce LME grade Cu (& gold?) at minesite; also deliver energy savings & environmental benefits in a fragile environment.
Has it been ruled out?
 
Afraid i can't answer your question as above:confused:
But it's a classic explanation as to why most people don't understand inl
I had trouble reading it :banghead:
Just the same, not a bad close to-day
 
back to 13c area where all started.
can't understand why the selling never stop.
seems one year activity doesn't help at all.
is this company really already producing money?
still holding, consider to top up, but don't have guts to enter.:(
 
In Reply to Juiceman.... 28th june I think your onto something here,we could do with a few more anns, however...... remember, these guys ARE PRODUCING zinc & a LOT cheaper than mining!
Intec OWNS the concentrator,& the mud pond, AND it doesn't cost a whole lot to run a DREDGE!.....( I shure hope the operator has a heater in the cab!!)
People seem to forget about the EFA dust & the Zeehan slag stockpile!
sitting on the SURFACE!!! & NOT needing to be MINED!! RICH in Zinc content & EASILY processed!!:):)
THANKS FOR YOUR POSTINGS I ENJOY YOUR COMMENTS!
jollyfrog
 
I am out....my patience has its limits and today's much anticipated "positive" Macquarie research report

"NEUTRAL" recommendation

12 month price target 15c

Was the last straw for me.

We initiate research coverage on Intec Ltd (INL) with a neutral recommendation and a 12-month price target of $0.15.

Impact

Zinc production platform … INL derives its present revenues and profitability through a tailings retreatment operation in north-western Tasmania known as the Hellyer Zinc Concentrate Project (HZCP). INL sensibly uses this project and high zinc prices to build cash as it determines how to best monetise its proprietary processing technology.

… for technology growth. Specifically, INL's technology, the 'Intec Process' is patented hydrometallurgical processing technology for the base and precious metals industries. If proven commercially, it has the potential to offer a lower capital expenditure and operating cost alternative to conventional ore processing flowsheets.
Key assets. INL owns a 50% interest in the HZCP, a 23.5% shareholding in Bass Metals (BSM), and 100% of the Hellyer Mill and associated infrastructure in Tasmania. It also owns Intec Process patents, and is party to a number of potentially value-adding strategic alliances and agreements.

Valuation. Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis, including our estimated discounted cashflow value of the HZCP ($26m), the market value of BSM ($7m), plant and equipment ($20m), cash plus options ($25m) and the Intec Process ($20m) for a total ~$98m ($0.15 per share, fully diluted). By far, the most subjective component of our valuation is, inevitably, the last one, INL's technology.

Earnings revision

We forecast one year of strong earnings per share in 2008, at 3 cents. Our 2009 earnings per share estimate falls off to 0.7 cents on steeply declining zinc prices.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: A$0.15.

Catalyst: Favourable zinc price movements; exploration success; negotiation of value-adding agreements and alliances; successful commercialisation of 'the Intec Process'.

Action and recommendation

We initiate coverage with a neutral recommendation and a $0.15 price target.

We view the next two years as critical to INL in realising its vision. The currently favourable metals environment provides a unique opportunity for INL to generate cash and trial its technology in conjunction with conventional operations. However, INL's not inconsiderable challenge is to transform its revenue and earnings base from one that is highly leveraged to the metals cycle to one that is more insulated from metal price downturns by increased demand for its low capex and low operating cost processing technology.
Investment Fundamentals

code: INL AU

year end 2006a 2007e 2008e 2009e
reported e $m (4.51) 0.23 18.63 3.98
adjusted e $m (4.51) 0.23 18.63 3.98
gross cashflow $m (3.83) 2.46 20.80 6.00

cfps c (0.91) 0.26 3.30 0.98
pgcfps x - 60.32 4.40 14.80

eps adj c (1.06) (0.13) 2.96 0.66
pe x - - 4.90 21.90

dps c - - - -
yield % - - - -
franking % - - - -
ev/ebitda x (8.00) 102.65 3.11 12.16
 
I am out....my patience has its limits and today's much anticipated "positive" Macquarie research report

"NEUTRAL" recommendation

12 month price target 15c

Was the last straw for me.

Macquarie research report
NEUTRAL recommendation MY *RSE
Why didn't they just save their paper and sink a ship in Burnie port and block the harbour for 2 years!
I have seen more accurate back of envelope research done by asf members than that pile of *rap (hope they wern't paid)
Guess i shouldn't be angry with Macquarie though, as this was written by the TEA LADY during her lunch break:eek:
Working for Macquarie she obviously knows how to read tea leaves, knows the future and Zinc will be worth zippo in 2009
Some might say i'm bias,so here's your chance to chop me up
Let's have your thoughts
PS someone got alot of inl cheap today
personally i think they held up well :cool:
 
OOp's forgot to mention she's offfff Phillip Woods christmas card list
And the MD's of zfx and oxr have just jumped out of a
high-rise building in Ubeckistan, due to the forthcoming events in 2009 :eek:
 
Well... cant blame the end of FY CGT loss selling anymore... a tough time to hold :mad:
I'd really like to see their QTRly to know what they've made out of the HCZP
 
Well Macquarrie should know:p: :p: didn't they buy into CFK kindergartens @ 38c ! (now down to 10/11c) !! Put in MEGGA $ too!
Must have been a recomendation from the cleaner.:D:D
Yes the share price is dissapointing.... on hte other hand it provides a marvellous opportunity to buy more!:D
 
Macquarie research report
NEUTRAL recommendation MY *RSE
Why didn't they just save their paper and sink a ship in Burnie port and block the harbour for 2 years!
I have seen more accurate back of envelope research done by asf members than that pile of *rap (hope they wern't paid)
Guess i shouldn't be angry with Macquarie though, as this was written by the TEA LADY during her lunch break:eek:
Working for Macquarie she obviously knows how to read tea leaves, knows the future and Zinc will be worth zippo in 2009
Some might say i'm bias,so here's your chance to chop me up
Let's have your thoughts
PS someone got alot of inl cheap today
personally i think they held up well :cool:

Juiceman,

I suspect you are getting over emotional about INL. I thought the Macquarie report was well balanced. They acknowledged the potential but also highlighted the risks. They attributed a value of $20m to the intec process which is commercially unproven. They could have easily been more conservative and given it no value.

Commodity price forecasts are very tough to make. I'd like to know the basis for projecting a steep decline in zinc prices. Even if we assume zinc prices at current levels I suspect it would not add much to the valuation. The success or otherwise of this company rests on the commercialization of the intec process.

It would be interesting to get management's comments on the report. Did they court Mac bank to get this research done? When initiating coverage on a stock it is usual practice for the analyst to run the report by management. If management pushed to get this research out there and were not happy with the report and still allowed it to proceed it raises a lot more questions about management than it does about Mac bank's analysis.
 
gold & MINERALS GAZETTE | May 2007 | 49
tasmania
Now that Intec Ltd has become a metals producer, the next task for the Sydney-based company is to clear up any misconceptions the market may have about its role in Australia’s resource sector.

It is fair to say that of late many people haven’t been able to classify Intec, with some seeing it as a cutting edge minerals
processing technology developer while others view it as a conventional metals producer.

The truth of the matter is the resources house is a bit of both, although this fact hasn’t distracted it from its core focus - to
implement the first commercial application of its own chloride hydrometallurgical process for the treatment of difficult ores using cash generated by an ongoing metals producing operation.

At the end of January, 2007, Intec became Australia’s latest zinc producer with its first shipment of 4,968 tonnes of concentrate (made up of 41% zinc, 9% lead and 220 grams/tonne silver) leaving Tasmania’s shores for its imperial smelting furnace customers in China.

The material was sourced from the Hellyer tailings dam in Tasmania’s central west and put through the mine’s plant using the traditional flotation and grinding technology. Intec acquired the Hellyer assets in January 2004 from the administrators of Western Metals, which had placed the Hellyer mill on care and maintenance in 2000.

For Intec’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Philip Wood, the first sale of concentrate was a defining moment for the
company, unequivocally proving to the market that it was capable of producing a healthy cash flow. This was all reiterated in March and then April when the second and third shipments were loaded.

Wood now plans to target broker research during the current quarter with the aim of strengthening the institutional
presence on Intec’s share register, during which time he will deliver some more (good) news vis-à-vis Intec’s
planned production profile at Hellyer.

Intec will be subjecting electric arc furnace dust to its patented chloride hydrometallurgical process to produce
high grade zinc sulphides, which will be soon added to the exported concentrates.

Furthermore, the company is adding a lead recovery circuit prior to the return of the retreated tailings to the dam. This will also be subjected to the Intec process to produce a high grade lead sulphide for inclusion in the final concentrate.
This should result in a significant grade increase for both zinc (from 40-48%) and lead (8-20%), turning the exported concentrate into something of a premium product for its type.

“Now you’ve got something that is closing in on a grade of 70% combined zinc/lead and this is a very attractive proposition for the ISF smelters,” Wood explained. “It will attract superior treatment terms, which will go straight into our bottom line, and it fits perfectly with our existing business model. “Furthermore, it’s actually quite simple and relatively cheap, so in this current price environment it will be a very lucrative addition to the circuit. “We’re currently reconfiguring the demonstration plant (located in the Tasmanian port city of Burnie) and that’ll be running campaigns treating EAF dust by the end of the September quarter. “Concurrently, we’ll be designing a larger plant at Hellyer, which will be commissioned towards the end of next year.”

Wood said this work would ultimately result in a doubling of production for a relatively cheap capital cost – something
which should help re-rate Intec’s share price.

“That does take focus, he admitted, “but I’m a hopeless optimist. “I think one of the issues we have at the moment in the market is that it finds us a confusing company – it sees Intec as something of a hybrid. “And if you look at other ASX mineral
processing technology providers it’s fair to say they are not all that well rated by the market. “Having reached that milestone of production, now is the time to get our story out there and attract some institutional investors to our share registry.”

The Hellyer tailings dam has an in-situ value of around US$3 billion and contains some 305,000t of zinc (at a grade of 2.8%), 330,000t of lead (3%), 30,850,000 ounces of silver (88 grams/tonne), 910,000 oz of gold (2.6 g/t) and 17,400t of copper (0.16%). Meanwhile the company has amassed a stockpile of 20,000tplus of EAF dust and is currently negotiating
further supplies with steelmakers both in Australia and abroad.

Wood said Intec would also be putting other ores through its Hellyer mill, including the material sourced from emerging
mining house Bass Metals Ltd, in which Intec has a 24% holding. “The processing of Bass Metals
high grade Que River ore offers the potential to increase the overall quantity and quality of zinc bulk concentrate
production by the joint venture partners and thus enhances the concentrate’s economies while providing Bass Metals
with excellent near-term cash flow at a minimal up front capital cost,” he added.

“As for the Intec Hellyer Residues Project, we would anticipate it being in full production (with a 25,000t per annum EAF
dust throughput) by the end of next year.”

Track record being established
By Mark Fraser
▲ Philip Wood
The dredge at work on the Hellyer tailings dam.

The dredge at work on the Hellyer tailings
dam.
▲While this article may not be that new
For those that have not read it, it may be of some interest.

With the exception of processing BSM ore (their words were; a commercial decision , made by both party's ) everything is on track

INMO inl is just 1 or 2 ann's away from a re rating by the market.
Just ask those that bought 14.5 mil of them on Friday, or was that just short covering?:)
 
Well I have now read the full report, and I think that anyone who has read my postings on INL will know that I haven't changed my mind one bit, as it pretty much (except for the zinc price outlook) echo's what I have been saying all along :)

I think that these two bits of information from the report, highlight what I have been calling the "speculative side" of Intec, and are the things that I have been buying for.

Should INL’s processes be commercially proven and
adopted by miners, INL would expect to negotiate a
standard royalty of 3% on the value of metals produced
via the Intec Process. Alternatively, or in addition to a
royalty, INL may negotiate a project interest.


a 3% royalty on a 100,000TPA plant would be a reasonable little earner I think ;)

Technology. If indeed INL was able to commercialise its
technology and it gained favour among one or more key
industry players, it may have significant upside potential
from our base case assumptions.


finally this tid bit....

INL has also identified an incremental opportunity to
recoup some of the value of lead in the Hellyer tails.
Lead is currently not a major source of revenue because
it is at a low grade in the bulk zinc concentrate. However,
by using essentially the same technology as it would use
in the IHRP and processing some of the lead containing
Hellyer tails in parallel with the IHRP circuit, INL expects
it can produce a 20% lead grade concentrate that it can
then treat to produce a pure lead sulphide (>80% Pb)
that it can then blend with the HZCP concentrate.
! It remains early days. The opportunity is to produce
around 10ktpa zinc sulphide and 13ktpa lead sulphide in
concentrate from the end of 2008. For the time being our
estimates do not take into account the possibility of
these EAFD or lead feedstocks contributing to INL’s
earnings, because the detailed feasibility is still to be
undertaken.
! However, notional value for this project is broadly
reflected in our valuation of INL’s technology.


the valuation is pretty much based on current concentrate earnings, with a notional value of 20 million for the technology side on which they say

Intec technology: The most subjective aspect in valuing
INL is the value of its patented technology. In the
absence of specific future cashflows, we have valued
INL technology at $20m. Our valuation is broadly (and
highly subjectively!) reflective of the potential value of a
royalty and/or project level interest that may arise, the
potential lead and zinc revenues that may come in the
relatively near term from the IHRP, and the intangible
value of INL’s Heads of Agreement with Outotec and
various other strategic alliances and JVs it has formed.


MBL mentions that it is quite difficult to get mining companies to adopt new technology. I suggest everyone read the full report, as there are risks and other useful info in there, I've just plucked out some of the more positive things (positive IMO) to entice people to read it :) It has a very good overview of the intec process and aludes to what I said a while back about putting all of the pieces together (they use the term moving feast).

Tony.
 
hahahaha yeah a good "little" earner. Lets say a full 100 K Tonnes PA at a price of $3000 per tonne at 3% that equates to 9Mill pa!

Whats the cost of establishing this plant? probable about 20 Mill ! and that 9 mill is before tax and expenses one would think?

I dont see it creating that much cash flow?
 
Thanks Tony
There's a big difference between the report and the summary, on which i based my comment's ; re the Macquarie tea lady.
Thats what you get when you put your mouth into operation, before putting your brain into gear:eek:
After reading the report thoroughly, on reflection it's not too bad.
They are basing their opinion on what IS and not on what MIGHT be.
While none of us tried to place a value on the company, our interpretations and or assumptions, were not far of the mark; pe of 5 etc.
At least the report will inform the market, as to what IS,and will enable those with an interest in inl to be reassured that the company is not going out the back door:eek:
This may well have placed a floor under inl, thereby allowing the market to re-rate the sp based on any positive ann's going foward ( i still believe there coming ) look for the bfs soon, and ann's re eafd etc.
If i have any problems with the report, it would be these;
The price of zinc, lead, silver, going forward. Really who knows.
Should we all sell our metal stocks, and short zinc etc pre 2009 ?
China is going to fall over? i don't think so!
Besides conventional processing of zinc, is just their cash flow for now.
Phillip Wood said there is 3 billion dollars worth of metals in Hellyer dam at todays prices.
If Macquarie"s life of mine/dam is correct at 5 yrs and the ihrp process works,then there is going to be alot of dollars coming out of the water in a very short period.
Even Macquarie said that there were many iron's in the fire
Consider what 1 good confirmed deal might do to the sp.
The mining industry is famous for RACING to come second:D
Yeh i know we have heard it all before.
For my own i'm now very heavily over weight with inl, after adding to my holdings of late @ .15 - .145
Good luck to all.:)
 
Tony started on the above post at lunch time, didn't finnish till late, so didn't notice your 1-45 posting until just now.
 
hahahaha yeah a good "little" earner. Lets say a full 100 K Tonnes PA at a price of $3000 per tonne at 3% that equates to 9Mill pa!

Whats the cost of establishing this plant? probable about 20 Mill ! and that 9 mill is before tax and expenses one would think?

I dont see it creating that much cash flow?

I think you missed the point... this is royalties (ie INL has to spend nothing, but gets three percent of the sales)... multiply it by umpteen plants at umpteen different companies who want to use the tech and you might see it differently ;) It all of course hinges on INL making a commercially successful plant that convinces others to take up the technology, but should that happen then we are talking blue sky if the takeup of the tech is good enough.

Tony.
 
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