We initiate research coverage on Intec Ltd (INL) with a neutral recommendation and a 12-month price target of $0.15.
Impact
Zinc production platform … INL derives its present revenues and profitability through a tailings retreatment operation in north-western Tasmania known as the Hellyer Zinc Concentrate Project (HZCP). INL sensibly uses this project and high zinc prices to build cash as it determines how to best monetise its proprietary processing technology.
… for technology growth. Specifically, INL's technology, the 'Intec Process' is patented hydrometallurgical processing technology for the base and precious metals industries. If proven commercially, it has the potential to offer a lower capital expenditure and operating cost alternative to conventional ore processing flowsheets.
Key assets. INL owns a 50% interest in the HZCP, a 23.5% shareholding in Bass Metals (BSM), and 100% of the Hellyer Mill and associated infrastructure in Tasmania. It also owns Intec Process patents, and is party to a number of potentially value-adding strategic alliances and agreements.
Valuation. Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis, including our estimated discounted cashflow value of the HZCP ($26m), the market value of BSM ($7m), plant and equipment ($20m), cash plus options ($25m) and the Intec Process ($20m) for a total ~$98m ($0.15 per share, fully diluted). By far, the most subjective component of our valuation is, inevitably, the last one, INL's technology.
Earnings revision
We forecast one year of strong earnings per share in 2008, at 3 cents. Our 2009 earnings per share estimate falls off to 0.7 cents on steeply declining zinc prices.
Price catalyst
12-month price target: A$0.15.
Catalyst: Favourable zinc price movements; exploration success; negotiation of value-adding agreements and alliances; successful commercialisation of 'the Intec Process'.
Action and recommendation
We initiate coverage with a neutral recommendation and a $0.15 price target.
We view the next two years as critical to INL in realising its vision. The currently favourable metals environment provides a unique opportunity for INL to generate cash and trial its technology in conjunction with conventional operations. However, INL's not inconsiderable challenge is to transform its revenue and earnings base from one that is highly leveraged to the metals cycle to one that is more insulated from metal price downturns by increased demand for its low capex and low operating cost processing technology.
Investment Fundamentals
code: INL AU
year end 2006a 2007e 2008e 2009e
reported e $m (4.51) 0.23 18.63 3.98
adjusted e $m (4.51) 0.23 18.63 3.98
gross cashflow $m (3.83) 2.46 20.80 6.00
cfps c (0.91) 0.26 3.30 0.98
pgcfps x - 60.32 4.40 14.80
eps adj c (1.06) (0.13) 2.96 0.66
pe x - - 4.90 21.90
dps c - - - -
yield % - - - -
franking % - - - -
ev/ebitda x (8.00) 102.65 3.11 12.16
I am out....my patience has its limits and today's much anticipated "positive" Macquarie research report
"NEUTRAL" recommendation
12 month price target 15c
Was the last straw for me.
Macquarie research report
NEUTRAL recommendation MY *RSE
Why didn't they just save their paper and sink a ship in Burnie port and block the harbour for 2 years!
I have seen more accurate back of envelope research done by asf members than that pile of *rap (hope they wern't paid)
Guess i shouldn't be angry with Macquarie though, as this was written by the TEA LADY during her lunch break
Working for Macquarie she obviously knows how to read tea leaves, knows the future and Zinc will be worth zippo in 2009
Some might say i'm bias,so here's your chance to chop me up
Let's have your thoughts
PS someone got alot of inl cheap today
personally i think they held up well
hahahaha yeah a good "little" earner. Lets say a full 100 K Tonnes PA at a price of $3000 per tonne at 3% that equates to 9Mill pa!
Whats the cost of establishing this plant? probable about 20 Mill ! and that 9 mill is before tax and expenses one would think?
I dont see it creating that much cash flow?
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