SDV - SciDev Limited

[Broadside]

Kiwi,

What made you buy it in the first place?

News thats overdue.
BSM Ore Sales Agreement
Mac Bank Research coverage
BFS
IHRP Economics

Let's see this flood of announcements....where are they??? Not having a go at you. Seriously, this is perhaps the greatest bull market in a generation, especially for resources....if they are treading water the past year, in this market it is not good enough. I am not emotional about this stock at all, I do see potential, I just don't see delivery on it, and in this market all the ducks are lined up --- it doesn't get easier than this!

 

[rub92me]

Being impatient is rarely a strategy that makes money in the long term, unless you're lucky. Time will tell whether the management of this company can deliver on the promise. Time hasn't run out for them yet though in my opinion...

 

[Broadside]

I agree, patience is the key to success for good stocks, now INL needs to show it is one, because technology has a finite life and you can bet competitors are working feverishly.....today saw this stale bull capitulate (half anyway), a sure sign the stock has bottomed out. I've had my rant, I'll hibernate now until I sell the rest or INL shows a little fight.

 

[spooly74]

Let's see this flood of announcements....where are they??? Not having a go at you. Seriously, this is perhaps the greatest bull market in a generation, especially for resources....if they are treading water the past year, in this market it is not good enough. I am not emotional about this stock at all, I do see potential, I just don't see delivery on it, and in this market all the ducks are lined up --- it doesn't get easier than this!

Hi Broadside,
Personally I think the BSM deal is holding the Mac report up and we`ve got a bottleneck now but I can`t imagine why... I`m hoping that there is possibly another company involved with stock for the HZCP, and it`s not some unforseens with Polymetals, but it`s important to get it right first time.

The main game for me with Intec will be the licencing and royalties of the tech.....this will take years.....I have a comfy seat and can wait.
The market currently values it on its zinc concentrate only ....hell...even the H plant is worth 100mill.

Below is a flow chart taken from another site which is usefull the see the big picture (sorry cant remember where I got it)...currently dissappointing but very happy to hold.
I first bought in when AGS took a share.

 

[Broadside]

Thanks spooly for the flow chart, and I agree with you I see the blue sky being royalties for the IP. I also hold AGS. The flow chart is a good visual representation of the problems this stock faces in communicating to the investment community, it is very complex and not a simple story! Did you read BSM's announcement a few minutes ago? Cheers and good luck to all.

PS Kieran Rodgers sold 450,000 ordinary shares at 17.5c a little while ago. He is also a BSM director.

 

[spooly74]

Thanks spooly for the flow chart, and I agree with you I see the blue sky being royalties for the IP. I also hold AGS. The flow chart is a good visual representation of the problems this stock faces in communicating to the investment community, it is very complex and not a simple story! Did you read BSM's announcement a few minutes ago? Cheers and good luck to all.

PS Kieran Rodgers sold 450,000 ordinary shares at 17.5c a little while ago. He is also a BSM director.

jeees ...thats out of left field!
Be very interested to see the recovery rate from the 1000t test.

Seeing as Intec has an adversion to good news ....maybe it will go up now

Do you know how big the plant at Rosebery is????
cheers

 

[rub92me]

Looks like I'll be watching from the sidelines a little longer then. Looking forward to the 'spin' INL will give on this. Being a large BSM shareholder some of the benefits will flow through to them I suppose

 

[spooly74]

Looks like I'll be watching from the sidelines a little longer then. Looking forward to the 'spin' INL will give on this. Being a large BSM shareholder some of the benefits will flow through to them I suppose

Agree, not that it was a major deal anyway, but the BSM que ore is clearly marked on the latest insto presentation

 

[juiceman]

BSM processing aggrement is off. Good or bad? i dont know.
I do know that Hellyer plant is running at full tilt,so it may not be a commercial issue for inl (not sure what an unimformed market might think)
I spoke with Dave Sammut to-day before and after the bsm ann
Before the bsm ann his comments were all VERY POSITIVE with some good news to be released soon.
After the bsm ann he commented that it was a good resolve for both company's.
Something is going on here but i'm unsure what it is.
For myself i won't be selling my shares, and in fact may buy more to-morrow.
Volume to-day 5,102,180 110 trades ave parcels 46,383 many individual parcels between 100,000 and 200,000 somebody likes em

 

[Col Lector]

I think that you have to consider that INL would make a higher margin on processing its own tailings dam material than that which it could achieve by commission treating a 3rd party's ore. An increase beyond 1.5mill tpa has always been an option to maximise return from the mill.
The attraction to INL (and the sticking point for BSM) of treating the BSM polymetallic ore being that the gold would not be separated in the initial campaign, but would be discarded to the tailings dam & available for extraction by INL(solely) once the Stage 3 leach plant is operational.
BSM going with ZFX ensures that the value of the polymetallic ore is maximised in the short term. INL benefits here also due to its shareholding.
I can see a Mac Bank backed play by INL for an increased holding of BSM could be an attractive strategic play....

 

[chops_a_must]

If i had any concerns,which i do
It's the director that sold 450000 shares (even though he exersized 450000 long dated opies early)
As a director of inl he also sit's on the board of bsm
Bsm is off 22% in the last few week's
Still no signed agreement between inl bsm


What does he know that we don't?
Just the same not a bad entry point for those with a few spare $
Early July should be very interesting
I still see this as a multi-bagger by years end

All the director has done is exactly what we all would of done if we could.

450,000 ordinary shares acquired on exercise of options of $0.069 per share.

450,000 ordinary shares sold on market at a price of $0.175 per share.

He still holds the same amount of fully paid shares as he did last week except that he has managed to put over 47k in his pocket buy selling on-market and converting some of his options into fully paid shares.

He still holds over 2.3 mill in options,but one thing I do know is he won't be exercising the ones that expire on 16th July 07 at 24.6c in any hurry.

What about, if the director knows that there will be a positive ann. just in time to "save" the employee options (16th July) .... BUT still wants to top up his super ..... and the super window closes too soon for the announcement.

* Dave

It always amazes me how people can twist what they want to read, to how it fits in with their personal blocks. The same experiment can be done with 8 year olds: Ask them why they think the moon goes away during the day; then tell them the actual reason; and then ask them again, why the moon goes away during the day. In most occassions they will melt in their own version with the factual version. But I guess this shows the position in life that INL holders are at.

WAKE UP you ninnies! It was a net sale! It's very very basic maths.

Lets just say... I don't know... someone wants to exercise 450,000 options at $.069. And they have a whole basket full of fully paid shares. So... how much money do they need to raise to do this?

450,000 * .069 = $31,050

And lets just say... the FPO's are at 17.5c. So how many shares will he need to sell to raise this money?

31050/ .175 = x
x = 177428.6, or for arguments sake, 177429.

So, he needed to sell 177,429 shares to raise this money. Yet, he sold 450,000.

Lets just do a few sums. 450,000 - 177,429 = 272,571 shares before exercise of options. Plus the 450,000 options = 722,571. But, he only kept 450,000, so this is a NET SALE of 272,571 shares. Or a capital gain of $47,700.

As a nice adjunct to this, this particular director is also a director of BSM. And yet, you guys are arguing whether or not this new deal will be good or bad for INL. Would this director have sold more than he had to if it was going to be positive for INL?

And lets just dig up an old post of mine:

The thing that worries me is that most of the EBITDA is from the sale of JRV shares. Without that, the EBITDA for the quarter is only $1.2m. So if you only take into account their earnings from sales, ~.6m per shipment, at 1 p/month at roughly ~$2m overall per quarter, their P/E is at about 20. Even if you forecast an EBITDA of 3m for the whole year, the P/E is at about 8.5.

Now that they have no immediate potential for any other earnings apart from this, it has to be valued on this. I doubt whether any premium should be paid for their tech, given a major zincer totally ignored them. Says a lot about the value of the tech.

So, given their market cap of $84m, and earnings of about 7.2m per year, the P/E comes out at 11.5. But given the strength in the AUD this is probably much higher now. And that is a ridiculous premium for a company with limited prospects, and no dividend. Even on a peer comparison, this could quite easily lose 30-50% of its value.

But despite this, magical figures of earnings of $20m p/a fall from the sky, as do P/E ratios of 5, and used as ramping material on stocks sites, despite falsification.

Cheers,
Chops.

 

[spooly74]

I doubt whether any premium should be paid for their tech, given a major zincer totally ignored them. Says a lot about the value of the tech.

Says absolutely nothing about the value of the tech chops ...the BSM deal was only connected to the HZCP not the IHRP.
Good post otherwise but I doubt any of this was factored so I`d be surprised to see it tank 30% - 50%.
They still can increase the throughput at Hellyer in the short term and may indeed have other regional ores which they can also add to improve the bottom line but imo this stock will only move on IHRP economics.
wait n see I guess

cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

Says absolutely nothing about the value of the tech chops

They still can increase the throughput at Hellyer in the short term and may indeed have other regional ores which they can also add to improve the bottom line

I dispute that line.

"Intec notes that the Rosebery Mill has spare capacity, whereas the Intec Hellyer Mill is currently fully utilised in treating the Hellyer tailings to produce a bulk zinc, lead and silver concentrate."

And I also dispute your first statement. ZFX showed scant disregard for INL's assumptions that it would be used for processing. Check out the presentation to investors dated the 7th June. It puts out all of their earnings forecasts.

How can you say the SP wont be affected when management can't even deliver on their fait accompli's?

 

[spooly74]

I dispute that line.

"Intec notes that the Rosebery Mill has spare capacity, whereas the Intec Hellyer Mill is currently fully utilised in treating the Hellyer tailings to produce a bulk zinc, lead and silver concentrate."?

Correct Chops, just read the INL ann then but the plant is not running at 2Mtpa therefore not fully utilised.
I think management (if possible) should clear this up.

And I also dispute your first statement. ZFX showed scant disregard for INL's assumptions that it would be used for processing.

How can you say the SP wont be affected when management can't even deliver on their fait accompli's.

Of course ZFX showed scant disregard for INL and so they should ...they shouldn't give a $hit about INL but that does not mean the tech is a dud.

Also, I never said the sp won`t be affected, just that I`d be surprised by a 30%-50% drop like you predicted.
The deal with BSM is not a main priority for management.
The Intec (hydrometallurgy) process is .... and thats what I`m waiting for.

cheers

 

[wintermute]

Have to say that I cant see the sp not taking a dive tomorrow morning after this announcement, I thought I was safe because I didn't get a contract note, but checking the course of sales my order went through today... which is unfortunate because I bought 20,000 at 15c! ah well...

I definitely don't agree with everything you say chops, but I cannot see this as being good for INL short term!

This is going to be bad from the point of view of adding fuel to the fire of negative sentiment, and will possibly cause some panic selling with only 3 days to go for the financial year.. just wishing I'd held off another day before buying.

As always time will tell, but the BSM ore treatment was as far as I'm aware never factored into revenue predictions (that INL used in presentations), and was always there as the potential for higher earnings, must admit though I haven't read the latest presentation carefully.

Tony.

edit: I also don't think we will see a 30 - 50% drop... they never went down to 7.5c last year when there was so much less going for them, they are hardly going to do it now IMO

 

[juiceman]

BSM processing aggrement is off. Good or bad? i dont know.
I do know that Hellyer plant is running at full tilt,so it may not be a commercial issue for inl (not sure what an unimformed market might think)
I spoke with Dave Sammut to-day before and after the bsm ann
Before the bsm ann his comments were all VERY POSITIVE with some good news to be released soon.
After the bsm ann he commented that it was a good resolve for both company's.
Something is going on here but i'm unsure what it is.
For myself i won't be selling my shares, and in fact may buy more to-morrow.
Volume to-day 5,102,180 110 trades ave parcels 46,383 many individual parcels between 100,000 and 200,000 somebody likes em

While the market may not agree.
On reflection i feel this may be a good thing for inl.
Hellyer is running at full tilt, ZFX will process BSM ore 23% owned by INL.
They won't need to buy bsm's ore and process it, just use their own for free.
That way everyone is happy and inl keeps the icing on the cake.
By the way inl is into stage 2 IHRP and claim in 2008 they will have built and commisioned their new plant; enter EAFD and LEAD.
On their figures that's about $65 mil pa 100% owned + hellyer
At this point in time they are not releasing the cost of the new plant.
Imo they are just itching to tell the market something new that will make us all feel warm and fuzzie
Good luck to all.

 

[kransky]

By the way inl is into stage 2 IHRP and claim in 2008 they will have built and commisioned their new plant; enter EAFD and LEAD.
On their figures that's about $65 mil pa 100% owned + hellyer
At this point in time they are not releasing the cost of the new plant.
Imo they are just itching to tell the market something new that will make us all feel warm and fuzzie
Good luck to all.

can you please tell me where you got this information from? I find INL annoying as they dont disclose the full details of things.. like expected costs.. (so you cant make reasonable gross profit estimates)

it makes the stock easy to ramp.

 

[juiceman]

can you please tell me where you got this information from? I find INL annoying as they dont disclose the full details of things.. like expected costs.. (so you cant make reasonable gross profit estimates)

it makes the stock easy to ramp.

How are you Kransky
From two sorces
1. phone conversation with Dave Sammut yesterday; development manager inl
Ph 0293516741
2.inl web site
IHRP plant commisioning 08 (his words)
Feed stock 1. 25000 tpa eafd = 10000 tpa high grade zinc (10,000x$3500= $35 mil
2. 56,000 tpa hellyer tails = 13,000 tpa lead (13000 x $2500 = $32 mil
Re costs as you say they do not mention them, but it has been said that ihrp is low cost.
Hope this helps.

 

[juiceman]

Tony i don't think you should sweat your buy at .15 inl holding well at .145-15
The market is off 60 points as we speak
I have a buy in at .145 but havn't got it yet
I don't think were far off the money with our thoughts.
Ps 2.5 day's to go

 

[juiceman]

market off 120 pts
Not a bad close for a dog!
Only 30,000 after market trades pulled it down to 0.145
Two days to go