SDL - Sundance Resources

fureien · 23 July 2009

wow im so glad i didnt offload my holdings last few weeks.

the fact that sdl held out has given me some more confidence.

in fact now i wish i bought more. except 16.5 cents doesnt seem to be that value. then again i dont want it to drop again lol

my buy price is 10 cents. i dont think it will drop that low again but it just doesnt seem worth it to "average up" if u noe what i mean

CarbonSteel · 23 July 2009

Hey Muff

Actually, now that I read this BBY report again, it is very possible that you are correct, and that $50m is in fact the half that the Cameroon Govt. will need to contribute. If you read this BBY report, it is kinda ambiguous.

I got a gut feeling, and while I cannot quatify, justify or qualify this feeling, it is like I KNOW we are on the verge of something here.

Any other soothsayers have this itch?

Bigben101 · 24 July 2009

Hey Carbon Steel

The Report looks ok, see what you mean about the ambiguity of the 50 mil.

You mention on the verge, on the verge of what?

After this whole financial crisis thing, I have learn't one thing. If analysts say one thing, the opposite will happen. In other words don't trust them. SDL has announced that the Cameroon Govt will contribute half the capex.

SDL have estimated $19 per ton costs leaving a margin of about $40US per ton (at current IO prices) 40x35 mtpa is $1.5B Aussy dollars (safe estimate) of Revenue, at P/e ratio of 10 that puts SDL at around 4-5 dollars a share depending on dilution. Also excluding dividends

Ben

CarbonSteel · 25 July 2009

Hey Bigben101

What I mean is that there could be some positive news about the outcome of "continuing discussions with selected parties including some of the largest iron ore and steel industry groups." (Reported in the QR 30/04/09)

I am hoping that there has been some material advance in these discussions in the last 3 months. The company asserted that work would focus on these discussions in the June quarter.

There have been a few large sales lately:
20/07...2.9m & 4.9m
21/07...4.2m; 4.5m; 2.4m; 1.9m; 1.6m
22/07...1.2m; 1.4m; 1.8m
24/07...4.4m; 2.0m; 2.5m

Roll on July 31, and fingers crossed!

Pythagerous · 27 July 2009

Things are starting to heat up for SDL.

Opened at 15.5c today, and got up to 18c by 11am, where there was over 32,000,000 shares traded.

The number of buyers opened up on par with the number of sellers, however this rapidly changed, and now the buyers outway the sellers 455 to 255.

Also, the following advert was found on another forum, which is also an extremely positive lead.

http://www.infomine.com/careers/jobs/job356736/site.operations.superintendent.aspx

fureien · 27 July 2009

CarbonSteel said:
Hey Bigben101

What I mean is that there could be some positive news about the outcome of "continuing discussions with selected parties including some of the largest iron ore and steel industry groups." (Reported in the QR 30/04/09)

I am hoping that there has been some material advance in these discussions in the last 3 months. The company asserted that work would focus on these discussions in the June quarter.

There have been a few large sales lately:
20/07...2.9m & 4.9m
21/07...4.2m; 4.5m; 2.4m; 1.9m; 1.6m
22/07...1.2m; 1.4m; 1.8m
24/07...4.4m; 2.0m; 2.5m

Roll on July 31, and fingers crossed!

do u know whats happening on july 31? quarterly activity reports?

really wished i bought in more now

Pythagerous · 27 July 2009

Quarterly report was released earlier today http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090727/pdf/31jr46s9qsz90f.pdf

May not have been the announcement that some were hoping for, however it reads quite positively.

fureien · 27 July 2009

oops i missed that. i was blinded by the big green numbers on my portfolio since 10 am

if the report is released today then unless theres more things we shud be expecting before the end of july. past experience tells me that the price wont hold for very long.

sellers at 18 cents have hit the 100 mark.
my dillema is once again whether to take profits now or just keep holding to god knows when,

my biggest investment problem since ive started trading is never knowing when to take profits. i bought in at 10 cents, and i doubt that opportunity will arise again anytime soon. at the same time i want to take profits and buy back in again later.

what do you guys do in this situation?

fureien · 27 July 2009

lol in regards to my remark about prices not holding. i take that back for now lol. it just broke past 100 sellers at 18 cents..what the.. i have made about 80% profit now, never had that happen before lol. im still dreading the possibility of profit taking tommorrow though....

munga · 27 July 2009

problem with selling out of this one is when announcement comes there will be a trading halt hence no time to get in. im just sitting on mine waiting for a good announcement hopefully

jonojpsg · 27 July 2009

fureien said:
lol in regards to my remark about prices not holding. i take that back for now lol. it just broke past 100 sellers at 18 cents..what the.. i have made about 80% profit now, never had that happen before lol. im still dreading the possibility of profit taking tommorrow though....

Hey fureien,
Mate don't sweat it - you really need to be comfortable with whatever you do - obviously SDL may retrace tomorrow but given the action over the last few weeks it appears that 13-15c is a pretty solid base from which it is unlikely (IMO) to drop back through.

That gives you at least a 30-50% gain to sit on, with a potential upside of far greater than that

Given the facts, it can only be a matter of time as munga said, gotta be in when the news hits or you'll miss the gap up, coz there's bound to be one IMO.

Miner · 28 July 2009

talktome said:
True ladies, very true.

There will be a gap up. It sounds, by way of the last report, that we will hear something this quarter (July-Sept).

Patience, that's all that is needed now.

talktome

Good thoughts talktome

But could you please declare your interest here : holding or not and what is the basis of such prediction . This query I am making seeing what ASF gurus told me as code of ethics here.

BTW I do hold SDL and do like to see it go up but I am not a psychic

fureien · 28 July 2009

jonojpsg said:
Hey fureien,
Mate don't sweat it - you really need to be comfortable with whatever you do - obviously SDL may retrace tomorrow but given the action over the last few weeks it appears that 13-15c is a pretty solid base from which it is unlikely (IMO) to drop back through.

That gives you at least a 30-50% gain to sit on, with a potential upside of far greater than that

Given the facts, it can only be a matter of time as munga said, gotta be in when the news hits or you'll miss the gap up, coz there's bound to be one IMO.

thanks for putting that into perspective for me
ive been 90% sure i wanted to hold this anyway. ive traded sdl in and out about 3 times already. but after that i purposely did not sell at 3 potentially big breakout intervals. although with the power of hindsight, i could have sold and bought back in and pretty much the same price again each time.

but since i have been so patient already, it doesnt hurt to wait some more

my only concern is that i havent thrown much money at this stock, i just want to throw more in, but keep missing opportunities. last time it dipped to 13.5 cents i thought it was gunna go lower, but it didnt and missed the boat -_-

i have a question though, once the stock does "gap up" (could someone define this phrase for me please) will THAT be a good time to sell then. cause usually when that happens, take CVN for example it will eventually drop down again and u see a bit of penant formation for about a month. would rather put my money to good use during that period, unless theres even more announcements to be had.

also im not sure if its this thread, but somebody mentioned that august is conventionally a "profit" month, does that refer to the fact that companies report heaps of profit during august? it doesnt make sense as august is usually the most uneventful month i can think of lol

CarbonSteel · 28 July 2009

There appears to be a few folks with an itchy sell finger.

If you have any respect whatsoever for Warren Buffett (no, not the singer... his uncle) listen to his advice...

Our favorite holding period is forever.

and...

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

I contend that todays sellers of SDL are in the "greedy" category and have a high chance of missing out when the real action comes. Ahhh.. let them chase their tails, at least they'll be happy thinking they're making money.

I think talktome has the philosophy here "patience, that's all that is needed now."

poortrader · 28 July 2009

Patience is Virtue, here is the definition.
Patience is a virtue because it makes us better people. The definition of the word is to tolerate delay. This implies self control and forbearance as opposed to wanting what we want when we want it. How many times have we jumped the gun and found out it it would have been better to tolerate delay or had self control? What did we miss out on? Did we hurt someone because of lack of patience? Did our lives just change completely just because we couldn't control ourselves? Patience is not only a virtue but a necessity for a happy existence.

Why would you sell now,
do you really yneed the money desperately?
do you want it to re-invest in other stocks?

Whatever it is, im sure it can wait...

my 2cents if its worth anything

Aargh! · 28 July 2009

CarbonSteel said:
There appears to be a few folks with an itchy sell finger.

If you have any respect whatsoever for Warren Buffett (no, not the singer... his uncle) listen to his advice...

and...

I contend that todays sellers of SDL are in the "greedy" category and have a high chance of missing out when the real action comes. Ahhh.. let them chase their tails, at least they'll be happy thinking they're making money.

I think talktome has the philosophy here "patience, that's all that is needed now."

poortrader said:
Patience is Virtue, here is the definition.
Patience is a virtue because it makes us better people. The definition of the word is to tolerate delay. This implies self control and forbearance as opposed to wanting what we want when we want it. How many times have we jumped the gun and found out it it would have been better to tolerate delay or had self control? What did we miss out on? Did we hurt someone because of lack of patience? Did our lives just change completely just because we couldn't control ourselves? Patience is not only a virtue but a necessity for a happy existence.

Why would you sell now,
do you really yneed the money desperately?
do you want it to re-invest in other stocks?

Whatever it is, im sure it can wait...

my 2cents if its worth anything

Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents

Miner · 28 July 2009

Aargh! said:
Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents

Mate

Your points are well taken
But hey considering many of those poets probably have been waiting for long time to see SDL to rise from grave. So a bit of philosophy and poetic writing probably does no harm

I think personally sometimes it is a good flavour in between money talks.

How come we tolerate Malcolm Turnbull's Bull S and Kevin Rudd's Rude logy when the country is in deep turmoil. Same story - need a breather to sing when economy does not support.

Sorry me no difference but do feel bad time for SDL is over now. They have started recruiting senior personnel. This is normally the scenario when company becomes serious. Good luck to all SDL holders

Me too a SDL holder

Pythagerous · 29 July 2009

G'day Miner

You made reference to the fact that they are recruiting senior personel.

Are you just referring to the job advertisement that I posted, or are they recruiting additional personel?

talktome · 29 July 2009

Miner said:
Good thoughts talktome

But could you please declare your interest here : holding or not and what is the basis of such prediction . This query I am making seeing what ASF gurus told me as code of ethics here.

BTW I do hold SDL and do like to see it go up but I am not a psychic

Hi Miner & everybody,

I am a long term holder with positive sentiment.

The chance of a gap up is highly likely as SDL has in the past requested a 'trading halt’ for announcements, and when positive news is released after a trading halt, in most circumstances, there just tends to be gap ups, depending on the buying force behind it of course. The flip side is a gap down if the announcement is bad.

Also, from memory, SDL was issued ‘speeding tickets’ or ‘please explain’ notices by the ASX for run-ups in the share price leading up to announcements. I think SDL has succumbed to these speeding tickets and have learned to use trading halts in a more timely fashion.

By the way, is there a button we are supposed to click on for position and sentiment etc.? I can't see it.

Thank you

talktome

CarbonSteel · 29 July 2009

Aargh! said:
Perhaps you should start a philosophy thread and keep the stock talk in the stock talk (and the HotCop sentiment ie crazy to sell when the money train is a tootin on HotCop). My two cents

I do not apologise to you for my post which contained (for you) too much philosophy.

Indeed, I thought that the "Thought Police" and "Forum Gestapo" were extinct.

Apparently not.

I'll write what I want to write in this forum and I will take direction only from the moderator.

Have a nice day Aargh!

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