SDL - Sundance Resources

[zmalecki]

sorry dont understand any of this. 200 day moving average was crossed ages ago and i am learning technical stuff on the run. is this normal jargon for trader buffs or can somebody explain in simple terms pls

Not 200 days but 200-weeks!!!!
It is almost 4 years average. This is something differ.

Impressive share price if it does achieve that!

I see that you have a good technical ability though I am not educated enough to understand it.

Do you have a timeline or is there an event at which time the share price will reach your target?

As I think it is combination of event and time-line.
Event - really going to "production" - construction e.t.c.
Time line - just first quoter of production

 

[CarbonSteel]

Not 200 days but 200-weeks!!!!
It is almost 4 years average. This is something differ.



As I think it is combination of event and time-line.
Event - really going to "production" - construction e.t.c.
Time line - just first quoter of production

Thank you for your explanation. I guess it makes logical sense and if so, we have a looonnnggg way to go pricewise but timewise I think 4 years is a relatively short time for such a large percentage gain (from the present levels).

 

[stocksontheblock]

Possibly, and more than likely a stupid question, yet I will ask it anyway.

And yes I do own SDL shares - quite a lot of them, for me anyway. And I should add I am a lonnnnnnnnnnnng term investor. What I own I want to hold onto for a number of years and then hopefully never have to work again, when I sell. Ha!!!

So ... it would appear we (who own the shares, and maybe those who don’t) are all awaiting this wonderful statement to say they have a partner who will inject x amount of $’s to get production etc underway.

Now, my question is: let’s assume that they are looking for someone to inject a few hundred million $'s into the company so they can build the port, get a railroad in place, and start digging to get the 'goodies'. I assume that whoever puts this money in will take a % of the company in return, if not will be expecting a very nice sum of the profits when they have them.

So, why not offer more shares at a given amount to raise the money required? I know this means diluting the shares currently held, yet if people purchased them then in theory their holdings are not as diluted as they have taken the chance to purchase the new ones on offer. I assume people would take them up given the amount that seems to be traded on a daily basis.

My question is based around company's like FMG (which I also hold) who seem hell bent on getting more money from o/sea's investors (namely China) without ever offering shares to us poor saps who have invested in the company.

So, is a 'partner' with money better for me in the long run, as a shareholder, or is offering me more shares at $x's (or cents) better for me in the long run as I still own part of the company and therefore have a better position should they make the run to the magical valuations that people are suggesting?

Can anyone with a lot more knowledge on this explain why a share offering is not a good thing?

Thanks,

 

[Pythagerous]

G'day Stocksontheblock

You will remember that SDL conducted a SPP a few months ago. Ken Talbot bought $5 Million worth of stock, and we all had the oppurtunity to by another $5,000 worth.

I can't remeber the full amount achieved, but I think it was somewhere between $10-$20million.

Now for the project to go ahead, SDL require about $US3 BILLION for things like a 500km railroad, sea port, construction etc. You can't just accumulate this type of money through Mum and Dad investors via a share pruchase plan. This type of captial has to come from large companies, bank, steel mills etc. It is a lot of money.

As for the strategic partners getting a large slice of the pie. If they are prepared to invest the $US3 Billion, in my opinion, they deserve a large chunk of the pie.

What it boils down to though, is the deal that SDL manage to secure for their shareholders, and I am confident that they will deliver the best deal possible.

You also don't know what the terms of the deal are. If SDL are desperate, they could have offered a larger slice, however if SDL held the upper hand in negotiations, then they may have only had to offer a smaller slice of the pie. Although a strategic partner may invest $3 Billion, the agreement may revolve around them recieving X amount of Iron Ore, instead of an increased stake in the company. It all depends on who the strategic partner is and what deal was struck.

 

[rowen25]

I think not enough has been mentioned of George Jones standing down, He is a major asset to the company with great relations with China and the best man for sourcing the funding required to go ahead, and I believe is remaining on the board of another company. I am a Sundance shareholder and hope him all the best but am starting to wonder if its just slipped through all a bit to easily, it would b nice if he goes out with a nice announcemnet but don't think thats going to happen. I think we got a long wait to hear any news but would love to be proven wrong!!

 

[talktome]

Hello,

I am posting in search of some comments from you and the other more knowledgeable ones among us on the SDL thread regarding Don Lewis speaking at the Africa Down Under Conference in Perth just yesterday (Friday Sept 4th 3009)

Presentation Link: http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090904/pdf/31kkjb5whwj145.pdf

Below you will find a few questions on specific pages. If anyone could give your 10c worth I'd really appreciate it.

Thank you very much,

talktome


Page 20 -

Capital Expenses haven't decreased - That is disappointing with all that has happened in the world. I thought we would see a considerable CapEx reduction for sure.

Average FOB increased.

Est. Prod Cost the same.

Est. Operating margin has increased by 10.2% - That is quite high isn't it? Any increase is welcomed.



Page 21 -

Based on the information on this page, is there much scope for SDL to increase their resources? It also says on page 26 that SDL will 'Determine resource potential at Nabeba Deposit and other prospects'. Is +6 billion tonnes a stretch?

Who is Congo Iron to SDL? They seem to have quite an amount of area with their exploration permit (shown in light brown, with dark brown bordering).


Page 23 -

SDL seems to be in great company in the African continent with the other active companies, such as Exon Mobil, RIO and AES Sonel. That helps paint a more comforting picture for long-term stakeholders. It makes me feel better at least.


After reading the presentation I get the feeling that we wre in for another month of waiting at least, maybe even two or three.

talktome

 

[RP_Automotive]

One thing I note from the investor presentation is that SDL intend to start drilling again in November 2009. Now call me the devils advocate, but SDL recently did some capital raising to ensure they had funds to 'tick over' well into 2010. No drilling was ever mentioned. If you ask me in their current position as a non-producing company they cannot afford to drill more, nor do they need to prove up anymore resources untill funding is found. Would you say that this is an indication that SDL are very confident funding for the project as a whole is very close, so they are planning on proving up everything they can whilst infastructre is being built?

I would be disappointed if SDL were to spend money drilling if infact funding is not found at that point. As we all know the main focus is getting funding for this project not wasting money on drilling, that, in my opinion, is simply not needed untill funding for the project is found.

I hold SDL...and will for many years to come.


EDIT: Upon further reading, on page 26 its indicated that they are looking at securing financing and completing the feasability study in 2010. In the meantime it looks as though we'll be getting more definition & possible upgrades of the deposits. I hope SDL have counted the beans right. I'd hate to see another capital raising, as I dont think drilling is important at this time - Theres plenty there already to warrant funding for a massive project. just my 2c.

 

[RP_Automotive]

After reading the presentation I get the feeling that we wre in for another month of waiting at least, maybe even two or three.

talktome

My vibe is that it will be even longer than that. Possibly late 1st / early 2nd quater 2010. I'm more than happy to be pleasantly surprised!

 

[munga]

somebody sold off big today (and its not over yet)
6m shares @ 13:52
5m @ 14:10
9m @ 14:27

i hope they are not in the know

 

[RP_Automotive]

Yep looks like we're getting smashed. unfortunate. I hope it doesnt scare too many people. Ofcourse I topped up this morning @19c. spewing.

 

[Tazbattler]

MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more. Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.

 

[talktome]

MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more. Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.

I'd say its more to that effect MMM.

I'd do the same if I were tarding SDL. If 0.17 goes we'll be seeing 0.15 for sure.

Talktome

 

[stocksontheblock]

MMM I didn't think the presentation today had bad or suprising news in it to warrant such a sell off, it's not as if we all hold sdl to make money overnight. I will keep my small holding and top up if it gets down a bit more. Perhaps the presentation confirmed for some that an positive message was a fair way off yet and they wanted to use their money elsewhere.

I think you might find that people were expecting there to be a corne- stone investor this year, hence a big price jump would come soon after annoucing it, then potentially lots of $$$. Yet the presentation today has a lot of if's and butt's, and based on this and that being signed etc a 'solid' investor wont be in play until next year.

As for the money over night, well think about it, the shares have been dirt cheap, get a few hundred thousand of them at 8c, it only costs a few $'s, sell at between 18c or 21c and you will walk away with a nice tidy sum, and not to mention there is a lot of movement in the price, so sell them, make a profit, and buy back in when they fall to 15c again.

 

[Zodiac]

Things do not add up. Why would we want to recommence drilling ( after already proving billions of tonnes ) especially after we just had to cease drilling due to lack of working capital. As such we diluted our shares and raised $20m. We only have $18m left which will last a max of 6 months and we are now planning to spend hard on further drilling. Why? We have a world class proven asset. Instead use the money to wine and dine BHP or Vale. BHP would like to open up European markets against Vale, Vale would like to stop this happening and they also lost out recently to the Chinese with the Belinga Mine in Gabon. So commonsence does not prevail UNLESS GOOD NEWS IS AROUND THE CORNER. ALSO THE KRIBI PORT STEERING COMMITTEE ARE DUE TO HAND DOWN THEIR FINDINGS IN SEPTEMBER. This all goes well for steady good announcements in the fourth quarter. Paddle hard owners or you will miss the wave.

Zodiac

 

[Zodiac]

I also note that at the moment volume is down. The fat cats have got in over the past 3 weeks and topped up, many a large purchase has been completed at good price. They have all got their position and traded up and will need to sit on them until further announcements drive volume. However in the immediate short term expect large holders to sit, with small leakage at lower prices and lower volume to holders who have lost their nerve. Why sell at 16.5 when you could have sold at 18.5 for the past 6 weeks. Announcements can come any minute and will blow this stock upwards. Beware of haste and panic. This stock has been in the making for 3 years, the board has no way out ( money is running out ) unless they finally agree to announce that they have been successful in negotiations or it has all been pie in the sky for the past 12 months and than there will be hell to pay for all concerned.

Zodiac

 

[Zodiac]

One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.


Zodiac

 

[stocksontheblock]

Things do not add up. Why would we want to recommence drilling ( after already proving billions of tonnes ) especially after we just had to cease drilling due to lack of working capital. As such we diluted our shares and raised $20m. We only have $18m left which will last a max of 6 months and we are now planning to spend hard on further drilling. Why? We have a world class proven asset. Instead use the money to wine and dine BHP or Vale. BHP would like to open up European markets against Vale, Vale would like to stop this happening and they also lost out recently to the Chinese with the Belinga Mine in Gabon. So commonsence does not prevail UNLESS GOOD NEWS IS AROUND THE CORNER. ALSO THE KRIBI PORT STEERING COMMITTEE ARE DUE TO HAND DOWN THEIR FINDINGS IN SEPTEMBER. This all goes well for steady good announcements in the fourth quarter. Paddle hard owners or you will miss the wave.

Zodiac

I also note that at the moment volume is down. The fat cats have got in over the past 3 weeks and topped up, many a large purchase has been completed at good price. They have all got their position and traded up and will need to sit on them until further announcements drive volume. However in the immediate short term expect large holders to sit, with small leakage at lower prices and lower volume to holders who have lost their nerve. Why sell at 16.5 when you could have sold at 18.5 for the past 6 weeks. Announcements can come any minute and will blow this stock upwards. Beware of haste and panic. This stock has been in the making for 3 years, the board has no way out ( money is running out ) unless they finally agree to announce that they have been successful in negotiations or it has all been pie in the sky for the past 12 months and than there will be hell to pay for all concerned.

Zodiac

One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.


Zodiac

What can I say, other than what a load of bul*sh*t! Care to actually give any supporting documentation to this sort of rubbish media nonsense? I think you must be an avid reader of the Curious Snail or something of this ilk to just come out with this.

Mate, think we get the idea; you are ramping this and to be honest very poorly, yet come on

 

[Zodiac]

I normally don't respond to personal attacks but I think all avid readers will see that the few comments I have posted over the past 18 months do have credibility and make a good discussion point. The attack I have recieved from whoever is childish and was very quick from someone who has only been a recent member and has not contributed to this thread. It was a fearful response. I have hit a bone with perhaps those in the know who wish to quickly burn me down in flames, someone that is continually monitoring this thread to control its direction. The result of my posts have had the response that was intended which should give us all further peace of mind.

Thank you "who ever"

Zodiac

 

[CarbonSteel]

One final point, we have a director and major shareholder charged with bribing politicians ( on the public record - no dispute ). Do we really think China will want to support a company with that pedigree. This is their biggest pet hate as it threatens their whole system. Frankly no way. Ken has done all he can to have the case postponed until next year so he can clean up other issues. One of them has to be Sundance. Therefore Ken has no choice but to support the board (who is running out of money ) to cut a deal and get him out. A Chinese partner would not allow Ken to continue. Look how they have treated Hu. There is a deal in the making and it is before Christmas.


Zodiac

So you think that there is no bribery or corruption within the Chinese business community? I had the impression that all Asian business communities actually thrived on backhanders, bribery and corruption (even more so than our own) and would not function without it. Am I mistaken?

Also, does it not make sense to buy drilling equipment and put it to good use, proving up an even bigger asset? Or is an interest rate of 4.5% more attactive to a mining company in the long run?

 

[Zodiac]

Bribery for low key assets and non essential industries have been "selectively" tolerated in developing countries for decades. However we are talking about a $7billion investment in a industry which the Chinese are using corruption as a negotiation tool. This crime is punishable by execution in China, so I stand by my point that the board has to be very careful how they play the Talbot card.
Secondly, I have no problem with the board investing in further equipment and drilling if we had the finances which we do not. I stand by my point that for the board to announce the recommencment of exploration with only $18m in the bank they must have secured a financial backer. When will this be announced? I would anticipate in the 4th quarter after the Kribi Port Committee have announced the "grand plan".

Zodiac