SDL - Sundance Resources

[prawn_86]

I'm assuming since my last post asking the question whether $x is a price target was deleted that $x is regarded as a price target and that we should justify our target of $x as being made up of $y revenue generated from z Mt pa production at $q per tonne cash cost and $r overheads

The 'x' was added in by myself, as i felt the post had value, but the price target was not justified based on that posts value alone.

If you are going to say a stock is going to be many multiples of its current price you need to have a lot of detail, and yes assumptions of IO price (for example) are fine, providing your reasoning for those assumptions are stated. IE - saying I assume IO will be $1000 per tonne, without a realistic explanation as to why, is not enough detail for valuations many times the current price.

Hope that makes sense.

If in doubt have a read of the 'posting guidelines'

 

[CarbonSteel]

From Bloomberg 19/06/09...

Some factory producers are preparing for better times. Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp., the largest U.S. steelmaker by sales, is recalling nearly 800 laid-off workers to restart coke production in the Canadian province of Ontario and a blast furnace in Illinois, union spokesmen Dave Dowling and Rolf Gerstenberger said in separate interviews this week.

The much talked about green shoots beginning to appear in the behemoth U.S. iron and steel sector?

 

[jonojpsg]

The 'x' was added in by myself, as i felt the post had value, but the price target was not justified based on that posts value alone.

If you are going to say a stock is going to be many multiples of its current price you need to have a lot of detail, and yes assumptions of IO price (for example) are fine, providing your reasoning for those assumptions are stated. IE - saying I assume IO will be $1000 per tonne, without a realistic explanation as to why, is not enough detail for valuations many times the current price.

Hope that makes sense.

If in doubt have a read of the 'posting guidelines'

Sorry prawn, my bad, i completely missed your edits on those posts

.........................................................

 

[CarbonSteel]

From...

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/...eroon-infrastructure-report-q2-2009-84494.asp

Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q2 2009 (Business Monitor International)
Market: Construction
Published Date: 21/05/2009
Report Title: Cameroon Infrastructure Report Q2 2009
Table of Contents: View Table of Contents
Report Type: Market Report
Country: Cameroon
Number of Pages: 69

Cameroon, despite its numerous economic problems, manages to appeal to investors looking for opportunities in its key infrastructure sectors. In the latest quarter, several new projects were proposed and key participants already operating in the country reaffirmed their commitment to the sector, despite their need to pare back investment spending elsewhere because of the economic crisis.

This interest bodes well for infrastructure development in the country over the next five years. Thanks to debt cancellation through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative, public finances have been helped. The Cameroon government is collaborating with neighbouring countries and multi-lateral agencies; the multi-national corporations in the country are tolerant of risk and have diversified their risks over many countries. The government itself appreciates the benefits of build-operate-transfer (BOT) transactions.

The country still suffers from corruption, lack of transparency and insecure borders, but the problems are not getting worse.

Two infrastructure projects deserve – and are getting – especially close scrutiny. Both have the potential to influence significantly the country’s long-term economic performance. The Kribi Deep Sea Port could greatly enhance Cameroon’s ability to exploit its mineral resources. The Lom Pangar Dam would give it the ability to increase and stabilise its electricity generation. Greater iron ore and aluminium production – and export – are likely to result if the construction of the two projects goes ahead as planned, and therefore a reduction in the dependence on oil. The dam would reduce vulnerability to drought by ensuring that its hydroelectric generators, which account for more than 80% of electricity production, have the water they need.

If the country can get those and other projects to completion, the resulting momentum is likely to bring further investment in infrastructure, including into roads, railroads and water and sanitation.

In the short term, however, the economic environment has taken a clear turn for the worse. On the back of falling oil, commodity and tourism exports, we see Cameroon's current account surplus, equal to 1.12% of GDP in 2008, flipping to a deficit equal to 3.4% of GDP in 2009. The potential for an outbreak of militancy could exacerbate the size of the deficit, while a deeper than anticipated drop in imports on the back of CFA franc depreciation and falling investment could help bring in the current account deficit.

In the Cameroon Q209 Infrastructure Report we have thus revised downwards our forecasts for Cameroon to reflect the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and risk aversion, which may keep a number of investors otherwise interested in the industry at bay. We now forecast that the industry real growth will be 8.2% for 2009, down from our previous forecast of 13.8%. This seems enviable, but it should be noted that the industry nominal value is forecast to be a mere US$800mn, therefore even one medium-sided project (such as the bridge in Douala) can have a big impact on real growth, whereas in other, larger markets the effects on one medium-sided project would be muted.

The report is forecasting real GDP growth in Cameroon to slow from 4.6% in 2008 to 2.4% in 2009.

So it appears that SDL and therefore we shareholders are REALLY pioneers. It seems to me, looking back at history, that pioneers either do very well or very badly. Fingers crossed for the former!

 

[Miner]

From...

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/...eroon-infrastructure-report-q2-2009-84494.asp




So it appears that SDL and therefore we shareholders are REALLY pioneers. It seems to me, looking back at history, that pioneers either do very well or very badly. Fingers crossed for the former!

Good note Carbon Steel
The last line of the report was interesting about GDP for Cameron to fall from about 4 to 2.4 %.

I hope this does not reflect into SDL performance to be forced into category two ( I do want SDL to be number one category).

Let us see what happens in next 6 months considering the GFC will be slowly be rising better than now

Disclaimer : I do hold SDL

 

[LRG]

Hello all,

I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!

The last market presentation May 2009 still showed on the gragh time line the following major milestone aims:

- Identify strategic offtakers/pertners by end June 2009 (i.e. NOW)
- Project Financing by end Dec 2009
- Start construction Jan 2010.

We need the first milestone to happen soon in order to see the SP rise significantly. It is stuck in the 15-20 cent range until we get the news.

Anyone heard anything?

 

[jonojpsg]

Hello all,

I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!

The last market presentation May 2009 still showed on the gragh time line the following major milestone aims:

- Identify strategic offtakers/pertners by end June 2009 (i.e. NOW)
- Project Financing by end Dec 2009
- Start construction Jan 2010.

We need the first milestone to happen soon in order to see the SP rise significantly. It is stuck in the 15-20 cent range until we get the news.

Anyone heard anything?

Mate if anyone had heard anything, the SP would have moved based on their previous performance! Definitely looking forward to those offtake/JV partners though - should send SP up significantly IMO.

 

[munga]

Hello all,

I hope there is some news forthcoming from SDL management soon!

The last market presentation May 2009 still showed on the gragh time line the following major milestone aims:

- Identify strategic offtakers/pertners by end June 2009 (i.e. NOW)
- Project Financing by end Dec 2009
- Start construction Jan 2010.

We need the first milestone to happen soon in order to see the SP rise significantly. It is stuck in the 15-20 cent range until we get the news.

Anyone heard anything?

i think jones is bedding down gindalbie first then he will move on with sundance. was in china recently with gindalbie hat on but expect he would of included sun in discussions

 

[RP_Automotive]

http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/d...Jyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZkZWxheWVkLmpzcA==&popup=true

Doesn't look like Jones will be doing anything now....but Mr Wedlock looks like a great candidate. Not that anyone involved in IO wouldn't have experience in these areas...but its a good sign.

Mr Wedlock brings more than 40 years experience in the mining industry to his new role. His previous positions include Executive Vice President and CEO of BHP Iron Ore, where he was directly involved in the development of four iron ore mines, upgrades of two ports and two railways, and the development of iron ore processing operations.

 

[LRG]

Hope George Jones retirement does not cause too much of a hiccup.

Further to my previous post I hope there is investment partners announced soon.

Buy the way it would be impossible for construction to commmnece Jan 2010 - only six months from now. Being in the construction industry, even with an alliance of designers and constructor appointed to fast track the procees - it would be a minimum of 12 months from appointing a D & C before you would see construction begin of infrastructure. As far as I am aware no one has been appointed and design is not underway.

I think the timeline is 1 year too optimistic at this stage.

Bring on some good news please SDL :

 

[fureien]

sdl dipped below our 15c support. im a bit worried. i had my hand itch over the sell button today. i really dont want to but ive been watching every other stock on my portfolio dip down into my initial buy price.

is it just market sentiment driving it down or just simply lack of activity with the company for there to be any reason keeping it up?

 

[wbosher]

I'm in the same boat, very reluctant to sell in case it goes back up. I see the the DOW closed up a little this morning, maybe that might be reflected on the ASX. I live in hope...

 

[evas34]

I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project.

Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that.

If this mine is confirmed commercially viable, I think SDL would be hard to find Chinese partner involved.

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20090629/05146411082.shtml

This pages was written by Chinese

 

[fureien]

i think im going to sell SDL

a couple of charting indicators are telling me to let it go

but im gunna keep an eye on it for buy in chances

 

[Miner]

i think im going to sell SDL

a couple of charting indicators are telling me to let it go

but im gunna keep an eye on it for buy in chances

Thanks for your post Fureien

If I am posting a similar comments then I will add the follownig :

• What are those couple of points in charting and share
• Declare my interest if I am holding or not
• Also I would get a step ahead to tell that I am not ramping up or down to create opportunities

for me to sell or buy for more transparency.

But you are not me so leaving it to you to provide more details to support your statement
Disclaimer : I do hold SDL

Regards

 

[quinn123]

I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project.

Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that.

If this mine is confirmed commercially viable, I think SDL would be hard to find Chinese partner involved.

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20090629/05146411082.shtml

This pages was written by Chinese

You do realize that Iron ore deposit is located 1.2km underground... It would be cheaper to mine the billions of tons of iron ore at near surface still available on the earth and transport it to China. <-- This is an educated guess with my limited knowledge of the basic economics of iron ore mining.

IMO the potential of an announcement regarding finance outweighs the negatives of a possible retrace in the near term (I have an average of 8.8c share)

I still hold SDL..

 

[bobdog]

a bit of info about the mine in china she is deep alright.

Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible.

 

[bowman]

Here's one short term TA scenario, with a couple of possible turning points circled - if the trend channels play out.

I grabbed a few this morning to put my toe in the water, but this is just for a quick trade.

I'll be watching for trading opportunities within these channels but a drop through 12.5c would be a bit of a worry.

 

[Miner]

I sold SDL two months ago at the current price level, I miss the 0.18, but I am not going to buy back in this stock in the near future as there is no sign of partner get involved in the project.

Wonder if you guys notice there was a huge Iron ore mine was discovered in the northern China just a week ago, it was said the biggest iron ore mine in all Aisa, with three billion ton of ore to be mined. The estimated production begin 2015, with 50 million estimated annual production. The news is all over the Chinese media at the moment, I couldn't find any English news in regards to that.

If this mine is confirmed commercially viable, I think SDL would be hard to find Chinese partner involved.

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20090629/05146411082.shtml

This pages was written by Chinese

Thanks for the posting
Here goes the English translation (even if Mandarin is reportedly is the language spoken by most people world wide I do not read, speak or write Chinese - thanks to one of my colleagues who translated it for me )Chinese found a largest iron ore mine in north east china:


" Asia’s biggest iron ore mine found in Benxi ChinaFont Scale Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible.
Asia’s biggest iron ore mine found in Benxi ChinaFont Scale: 23 June 2009 @ 01:03 pm ET Print E-Mail
Benxi - A huge iron ore resource with more than three billion tons’ of proven reserves has been found in China's Benxi, Benxi Municipal Government said on Tuesday, making it one of the biggest iron ore mines in Asia.

It’s reported that this iron was found during the second exploration of the city, which is based on the city's fifteen years of geological data. After it was reported to the China Geological Survey, it was perambulated by a team of geologists.

The team made 17 exploratory holes to explore the mine. Iron ore was found in 12 of the holes, covering an area of four kilometers long, three kilometers wide.

According to antecedent survey, a complete core of iron ore has been detected 1,100 to 1860 meters. High-grade resources can even be found underground 2015 meters. The bottom and border zones haven’t been reached, said the team. The identified reserves available are more than three billion tons.

Meanwhile, the Dataigou mine has features of deep-buried depth, wide-spread ore body, steep obliquity and big scale of ore body. The iron deposit is a giant mixture of magnetite and hematite, with iron ore grade between 25% to 62%.

Shaoshi Xu, head of Minister of Land and Resources, paid a site visit there, urging the local government to do their best to make full use of Asia's largest iron ore mine for the nation and local as soon as possible."

My comment is however going 2015 meters below ground to search for high grade resources is not an economical proposition. They still shoudl come to Australia for our good quality iron ore (money for all of us then in share prices)

 

[jay2000]

Another iron ore mine in the making is African Aura Resources, listed on the Toronto Stock Exhange. (AAZ) "The Company considers that the combined dimensions of Nkout, Ngoa and
Akom represent potentially significant iron ore deposits. The sub-region hosts
a number of sunstantial iron deposits which are currently under exploration
and development including the Mbalam deposit located approximately 150km
southeast of Nkout and which is under development by Sundance Resources
Limited." More interest in Cameroon, everyone will need a railway and a port one day!