Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

SDL - Sundance Resources

Jump to new
Miner said:
Thanks for your post Fureien

If I am posting a similar comments then I will add the follownig :
  • What are those couple of points in charting and share
  • Declare my interest if I am holding or not
  • Also I would get a step ahead to tell that I am not ramping up or down to create opportunities
for me to sell or buy for more transparency.

But you are not me so leaving it to you to provide more details to support your statement
Disclaimer : I do hold SDL

Regards
Click to expand...

oops sorry,

i hold sdl, not that much, wish i held more but i am not ramping or anything. i think someone mentioned before that suggesting ramping is ridiculous since the asf population is only an insignificant portion of the total market participants.

anyway, the indicators i was looking at were MACD and the the volume and there being twice as many sellers than buyers. the dilemma i am having though right now is that the price dropped too fast. its fallen past about 2 potential support points. the next support level is my entry price around 10 - 11 cents. if it drops that far its likely to make a recovery and theres more reason for me to buy back in than to sell obviously. feels frustrating that i wasted a few months holding it only for it to fall back to entry price.

that being said if u look at this week alone it seems to have made a bit of recovery, but ive seen this pattern too many times and usually the next few days the buying power just runs out of grunt and the sp falls. false recovery or something.

theres too much conflicting information. i have a sell order at 15 cents stop at 13.5 cents
 
fureien said:
oops sorry,

i hold sdl, not that much, wish i held more but i am not ramping or anything. i think someone mentioned before that suggesting ramping is ridiculous since the asf population is only an insignificant portion of the total market participants.

anyway, the indicators i was looking at were MACD and the the volume and there being twice as many sellers than buyers. the dilemma i am having though right now is that the price dropped too fast. its fallen past about 2 potential support points. the next support level is my entry price around 10 - 11 cents. if it drops that far its likely to make a recovery and theres more reason for me to buy back in than to sell obviously. feels frustrating that i wasted a few months holding it only for it to fall back to entry price.

that being said if u look at this week alone it seems to have made a bit of recovery, but ive seen this pattern too many times and usually the next few days the buying power just runs out of grunt and the sp falls. false recovery or something.

theres too much conflicting information. i have a sell order at 15 cents stop at 13.5 cents
Click to expand...


Thanks for the clarification and wish you good luck in SDL ;)
I would however say the SDL is always marketable with a high volume at any day and there are opportunities to buy and sell on teh same day
 
There's been a lot of buying at 14.5c so far today and not too much selling that I've seen...hopefully that's a good sign. ;)
 
I'm looking forward to the Quarterly Report which should be forthcoming about July 31. Any predictions about offtake partners?
 
If not an announcement of a partner, hopefully some strong wording that indicates negotiations are well on their way. With Jones retiring 31 August, I'd hope foe a significant announcement before then.
 
OK, time for a realistic price target ;)

Assuming that SDL can sign up a parter/partners in the next three months, to my mind the SP should be re-rated to at least a fair takeover price per tonne of resource. Given the 2.5bn tonnes, and a more than fair price per tonne of 50c, that would be $1.25bn MC.

With what, 2bn shares on issue, looking at a SP of $0.60 if things go right over the next three months. Here's hoping anyway:rolleyes:
 
A general view of the IO industry, incorporating comment about SDL....

Improving Steel Market Good For Iron Ore Outlook
FNArena News - July 17 2009

By Chris Shaw

Small and mid-size resource company research group Resource Capital Research has completed its quarterly analysis of the Australian iron ore market, noting there are signs of a recovey after spot prices fell in both the December quarter of 2008 and the March quarter this year.

The group puts the improvement down to positive changes in global steel production and steel prices in recent months, as the iron ore price has tended to follow these market developments. On its numbers global refined steel production rose 7.4% between April and May, helping the world steel plate price to a 9% gain in June compared to its May close.

As with most things commodity related the improvement also reflects Chinese buying, the group taking the view the inventory build-up in that country reflects either or both of buying in anticipation of future increases in demand from the steel industry, which is occuring, or a way of ensuring continuity of supply if the contract dispute with Rio Tinto (RIO) continues for a significant period of time.

In terms of the actual market, the group notes the falls in steel prices from the highs of last year, which have been of a magnitude of 22-55% depending on product type, have flowed through to falls in spot and contract iron ore prices this year of as much as 65% at worst from last year's levels.

Contract negotiations have also dragged on as while the major producers, BHP Billiton ((BHP)), Vale of Brazil and Rio Tinto have settled with Japanese, Korean and European buyers at around 32% below 2008 levels, this is still around 20% higher than 2007 contract prices. The Chinese, however, are holding out for cuts of 40%. The contract settlements to date imply prices of US$60 per tonne for fines and US$70 per tonne for lump ore.

Looking forward Resource Capital Research sees scope for contract prices for fines to return to around US$62-$80 per tonne over the next three years, while longer-term it is forecasting a price of US$40 per tonne for fines and US$48 per tonne for lump ore.

As prices have improved in recent months so too have share prices of Australian iron ore plays, the group noting while sector prices have fallen an average of 51% over the past 12 months, they have risen by an average of 52% in the past quarter. (Don't be fooled by the similarity in the numbers - the end result is still for a net loss on balance).

On average share prices are now 56% below their 12-month high but 171% above their 12-month low.

Turning to the stocks under the group's coverage, RCR notes Apollo Minerals ((AON)) will begin drilling its flagship Mt Oscar project this month, with expectations of a resource being outlined sometime in 2010 and the project potentially in production by 2013. The company is in discussions with potential strategic partners in China, the group adds.

Atlas Iron ((AGO)) shipped its first ore last December and the group notes it has plans to boost production from current levels of around one million tonnes per annum to six million tonnes by the end of next year and 12 million tonnes by the end of 20120, its success paving the way for some of the other juniors in the group's view.

For BC Iron ((BCI)) the group notes the 1.5 million tonnes per annum Nullagine project could be producing by the middle of next year, while the company's recent capital raising should help BC Iron fund its share of development costs as part of its joint venture with Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).

With respect to Fortescue, the group notes after shipping 27.3 million tonnes of ore in FY09 the group's target is 50 million tonnes per annum by the second half of 2010 at an operating cost of around US$20 per tonne. Assuming further increases to output lift production to more than 155 million tonnes per annum in coming years, the group sees upside to as much as $8.33 per share.

Brockman Resources ((BRM)) is nearing the release of its pre-feasibility study for its 1.4 billion tonne Marillana deposit, expected this month, with indications of a target for production of 15-25 million tonnes per year from 2012. Sometime in 2010 the group expects the company to update on rail access agreements and provide a definitive feasibility study for the project.

Centaurus Resources ((CUR)) is exploring in Brazil and the group expects an application for a mining lease for the Minas Gerais project sometime in the current quarter, with an aim of producing around 300,000 tonnes per annum by the second half of 2010.

For DMC Mining ((DMM)) Africa is the focus as the Mayoko project in the Congo has currently identified a resources of 33 million tonnes, the group noting there remains scope for this to increase to as much as 500 million tonnes with further exploration work. Production would be in the order of 11 million tonnes per year on current plans.

Iron Road ((IRD)) is expected to provide an initial resource from its Warramboo deposit in South Australia this month, the group noting this is another project with upside to as much as 500 million tonnes. The current project timetable suggests a feasibility study could be completed in the first half of 2010.

A recent placement has added to the cash reserves of Polaris Metals ((POL)) but the company continues to search for a partner for its Yilgarn project. Resource Capital expects a bankable feasibility study on the project by late in the June quarter of next year but current indications are for 3.5-4.5 million tonnes of output annually and operating costs of US$30-35 per tonne.

The Mbalam project in Cameroon is shaping as a 35 million tonnes per year high grade project for Sundance Resources ((SDL)), Resource Capital noting the project has an indicated 20-year mine life at present. While capex costs are high given the distance to ports, the group expects a development decision and a bankable feasibility study in either the current half or the first half of 2010.

Venture Minerals ((VMS)) has released what the group viewed as a solid scoping study for its Mt Lindsay project in Tasmania, with indicated mine life of more than seven years and capex comfortably covered by the group's current cash balance. The group also notes the company has an exploration target at Stanley River, also in Tasmania
Click to expand...

So we could still be yet another year away:(
 
jonojpsg said:
OK, time for a realistic price target ;)

Assuming that SDL can sign up a parter/partners in the next three months, to my mind the SP should be re-rated to at least a fair takeover price per tonne of resource. Given the 2.5bn tonnes, and a more than fair price per tonne of 50c, that would be $1.25bn MC.

With what, 2bn shares on issue, looking at a SP of $0.60 if things go right over the next three months. Here's hoping anyway:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Here's an exert from the Nov '08 AGM presentaion (page 6) in regards to prices per tonne in-ground:

* Mbarga is similar scale to major Itabirite projects in Minas Gerais area of Brazil
* Recent transactions in Brazil valued at US$1 - $3 / tonne in-ground for ~38% Itabirite

Those figures paint a nicer picture...

talktome
 
talktome said:
Here's an exert from the Nov '08 AGM presentaion (page 6) in regards to prices per tonne in-ground:

* Mbarga is similar scale to major Itabirite projects in Minas Gerais area of Brazil
* Recent transactions in Brazil valued at US$1 - $3 / tonne in-ground for ~38% Itabirite

Those figures paint a nicer picture...

talktome
Click to expand...

An interesting and pleasing comparison. As an SDL holder, I hope your figures are acceptable to the market. :)

To make a real comparison, it is necessary to also compare Capex. What are the logistics involved in getting ore from Minas Gerais area of Brazil to port?

I think SDL is looking at about $3.5B.
 
A couple of snippets of info...

Costs to date are around $50m (Source: BBY report), so Cameroon Govt. will be contributing $25m if they want in.

Secondly, someone bought 4.8m shares in one swoop near the close yesterday, pushing the price to 16 cents.

Could be interesting today... QR is just around the corner and Dow is looking a little sturdier! :)
 
The Muffin Man said:
After sitting down and going through the report, we can see that the Mbalam Exploration and Evaluation Assets Account held $97m in it at December 31. My estimate was a little way off, but the variance is in SDL's favour. I'm interested to know if this account is what will be used to determine what the Cameroon Government will pay for the extra 15% of CamIron.

I can understand that there are still quite a few things that could derail the Mbalam Convention, but there are encouraging signs. Why would the Cameroon Government nominate CamIron as the preferred developer of the Iron Ore section of it's multi billion dollar Kribi Port development if the Government had drastic concerns about the detail of the Convention?

Under the Potential Strategic Partners heading is some information I think we all knew. The Global Financial Crisis is effecting the process of introducing strategic partners to the process. The capital raising recently announced will ensure that SDL has the operating funds to see it through to 2010, which is an assuring statement. Hopefully by this stage, or earlier, there has been some improvement in World economic conditions.

I have a feeling SDL may be a little quite for a few months. Would the Cameroon Government sign the Mbalam Convention and buy into the project further before SDL can secure strategic partners / off-take agreements? I'm not so sure. Hopefully the company is being nice and tight with cash reserves so it doesn't experience any financial pressures in the near future.
Click to expand...

CarbonSteel, we should try and get confirmation as to which figure SDL would go off when charging the 50% development costs if the Cameroon Government decided to buy-in. Within the December financials there is an Mbalam Exploration and Evaluation Assets Account, which all capital expenses to do with Mbalam would have been capitalised to I would have thought. I could be wrong though.
 
CarbonSteel said:
A couple of snippets of info...

Costs to date are around $50m (Source: BBY report), so Cameroon Govt. will be contributing $25m if they want in.

Secondly, someone bought 4.8m shares in one swoop near the close yesterday, pushing the price to 16 cents.

Could be interesting today... QR is just around the corner and Dow is looking a little sturdier! :)
Click to expand...

earlier in the day, yesterday the share count went from 6m to approx 11m in seconds a huge parcel was snapped up then also. someone was buying up big
 
Chinese steelmakers looking for alternative iron ore suppliers Chinese steelmakers are scrambling to secure alternative iron ore supplies as concerns mount that the alliance forged between Australian mining giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton could force up prices. Among the new ore suppliers now being courted are Canada's Adriana Resources and Australia's Sundance Resources.

The bid to secure new supply agreements follows an announcement on June 5 that Rio had decided against a USD19.5 billion deal tieup with Aluminum Corp of China, in favor of a new iron ore agreement with BHP. Under the deal, Rio and BHP will jointly manage combined ore output of 270 million tons a year, almost equal to the 340 million ton annual output of No 1 producer, Brazil's Vale. Adriana, which is developing an iron ore port in Brazil and two iron ore projects in Canada, is expected to bring in a Chinese steelmaker as investor in the next few months.

Several Chinese companies also expressed interest in investing in Sundance's Mbalam iron ore project in Cameroon, or buying
a stake in Sundance.


http://www.flanders-china.be/_documents/FCCC Sectoral Newsletter No 41.pdf


I personally didn't find this but I though that it needed to be shared.

talktome
 
Talktome, thanks this may explain why there have been some big volume purchases of late - but probably they are just speculators.

I think we will be waiting a few months before some sort of funding deal is stitched up.

However, the ongoing issues with current australian iron ore supplies does advantage SDL's long term prospects.

I am surprised that SDL has held up so well given lack of news as per the timeline SDL has provided - would have thought the SP would have slipped back below 10 cents by now. It hasn't so this seems very positive. :confused:
 
Keep a watchful eye on MGX too.

Speculation that Chinese are starting to benchmark MGX prices against BHP.

I picked some up @ 82 cents last week. I'm looking to exit @ $1.40.
 

Similar threads

M
Exploring Trading Apps: Need Advice!
Replies
3
Views
932
greggles
greggles
Joe Blow
  • Sticky
Resources Rising Stars 2024 Conference Gold Coast
Replies
7
Views
2K
Garpal Gumnut
Garpal Gumnut
Richard Dale
  • Article
Resources for Systematic/Algorithmic Trading
Replies
12
Views
2K
Richard Dale
Richard Dale
T
EXPLORATION Formulas – A ‘Lucky-Dip’
Replies
2
Views
823
tonythekiwi
T
1
Best Resources for Newbies
Replies
11
Views
2K
divs4ever
divs4ever
Top