SDL - Sundance Resources

[Aargh!]

CarbonSteel,

I suggest you read the forum rules regarding posting your "gut feelings" and "itches" with no funny/tech analysis to back it up.

I contend that todays sellers of SDL are in the "greedy" category and have a high chance of missing out when the real action comes. Ahhh.. let them chase their tails, at least they'll be happy thinking they're making money.

You suggest people selling now are greedy? How could taking a profit in the current market be deemed greedy? This is beyond me and I would think the majority of the members here. I make no apologies for pointing this out.

Indeed, I thought that the "Thought Police" and "Forum Gestapo" were extinct.

I think you will find the Gestapo fell along with Nazi Germany. Think as much or as little as you want, that's your prerogative.

I hope your day is as sensational as mine.

PS. If your gut feelings and itches persist I'd suggest seeing your GP, there's probably some cream to help clear it up

PPS. SDL looking bullish with recent Morning Star and increasing volume (my tech input )

 

[LRG]

people, no need for chipping each other.

SDL hit a new high again today (off the bottom I mean). The trend is definitely north at the moment.

Also, volumes continue to be very high. A lot of interest.

I continue to hold my reasonable holding and have finally broken through my average price of 16.9 cents (I bought originally at 45 cents and averaged all the way down over the last 18 months).

50 cents then $1 IMO are the next milestone SP targets upon a partner/finance announcemet in 3rd or 4rth QTR 2009.

 

[munga]

people, no need for chipping each other.

SDL hit a new high again today (off the bottom I mean). The trend is definitely north at the moment.

Also, volumes continue to be very high. A lot of interest.

I continue to hold my reasonable holding and have finally broken through my average price of 16.9 cents (I bought originally at 45 cents and averaged all the way down over the last 18 months).

50 cents then $1 IMO are the next milestone SP targets upon a partner/finance announcemet in 3rd or 4rth QTR 2009.

my first purchase was at 72cents then thought i would be smart and got in at 43cents history shows that it went to 7cents. i got very angry an got in at the 9-10cent mark to average out at 23cents. not to smart getting angry but this time it my pay off

 

[Sean K]

50 cents then $1 IMO are the next milestone SP targets upon a partner/finance announcemet in 3rd or 4rth QTR 2009.

Do you mind giving us the details on these price targets LRG.

Or, is it just wishful thinking.

Or, is it just a ramp.

Cheers,

 

[LRG]

Sure Kennas,

I first started buying SDL in Dec 2007 at a support level around 45 cents. Previuos to that date it had a support level around 90 cents. The reason I bought in at 45 cents originally was I thought it was a retracement and ready to head back up.

Then of course we were all hit with the GFC and the share tanked down all the way to about 7 cents. [Sorry I don't have a chart in front of me at the moment - just going off my memory].

So now globally we are seeing a recovery on markets and concurrently we are seeing even better news out of SDL than when in 2007 the shares were valued at 90 odd cents.

I don't fully believe in technical analysis but as a bove the 2 most recent support levels (as above) were around 45c and 90c. Therefore I see the milestone events about to come (IMO) to break through these levels at 50 and then $1. Then if construction begins of the infrastructure further dhe will go (see some of my previous posts on predictions and the debate that ocurred at the time - approx 2 or 3 months ago).

 

[fureien]

PPS. SDL looking bullish with recent Morning Star and increasing volume (my tech input )

whats morning star?

did anyone sell out today? i know most of you will be holding long term. but ive already made like 100% profit. its just unnerving to keep holding although support is really strong, i feel really greedy lol. watching today's fluctuation from 20.5 down to 19 cents shows a bit more profit taking than the past few days, im sure its because some people dont think it will hold above 20 cents for very long, being a significant resistance point and all. to be honest i hope it drops again lol.

i think if it rallies tommorrow then im just gunna keep on holdinng. otherwise a second day of profit taking is kinda a signal for me to sell. with full intention to buy back in of course.

unless somebody here knows of impending price sensitive news/activities.
which is why i asked about morning star...unless u were muttering some metaphor or something

 

[samt75]

Hi Fureien

Morningstar is an independent managed fund and share researcher.

http://www.morningstar.com.au

 

[fureien]

"Hi Fureien

Morningstar is an independent managed fund and share researcher.

http://www.morningstar.com.au"

hey great resource, thanks!

btw sdl is doing nicely. glad i persevered and held on just a bit longer. but it does slowly seem to be getting weaker. interesting to see if 18 cents can hold as support. i wont be suprised if those 100+ buyers get knocked out in one go

 

[CarbonSteel]

From QR..

Introduction of Strategic Partners/Investors

Work will continue to focus on negotiations with these parties in the September 2009 Quarter and the Company remains confident of successfully concluding arrangements for the introduction of prospective strategic partners/investors to the Project.

I note that there is no timeline mentioned. I had thought that there would be some decision in this regard during September, but it may well be later than that.

The Mbalam convention will not be finalised till "The Feasibility Study will form the basis for negotiation of the fiscal and commercial terms of the Convention with the final Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) to be completed in 2010 on the basis of these terms."

So that is at least a year away. No wonder fureien that you are seeing some weakness.

There is really no good reason to suspect that the SP will increase prior to an anouncement regarding Offtake/Financing is there?

Could it be that we holders must now languish a little longer?

Bit-o-berley to entice some comment.

 

[jonojpsg]

From QR..



I note that there is no timeline mentioned. I had thought that there would be some decision in this regard during September, but it may well be later than that.

The Mbalam convention will not be finalised till "The Feasibility Study will form the basis for negotiation of the fiscal and commercial terms of the Convention with the final Bankable Feasibility Study (“BFS”) to be completed in 2010 on the basis of these terms."

So that is at least a year away. No wonder fureien that you are seeing some weakness.
There is really no good reason to suspect that the SP will increase prior to an anouncement regarding Offtake/Financing is there?

Could it be that we holders must now languish a little longer?

Bit-o-berley to entice some comment.

Note the wording here Carbon - it states that the BFS will be completed in 2010 on the basis of the terms in the Convention - I read this to mean that the Convention will be finalised prior to the BFS? Maybe worth clarifying with the co?

 

[CarbonSteel]

Note the wording here Carbon - it states that the BFS will be completed in 2010 on the basis of the terms in the Convention - I read this to mean that the Convention will be finalised prior to the BFS? Maybe worth clarifying with the co?

I agree jono and have emailed the Company the content below.

I have emailed them before with another question but did not receive the courtesy of a reply. I won't hold my breath this time.

Sir,

I hold SDL shares, and I have some questions relating to that holding.

With regard to the "Bankable Feasibility Study".

Will this need to be complete prior to the Mbalam Convention being ratified by both parties?

If this is so, then will the Cameroon Government (if they decide to opt in) pitch in their money and take their shares at this point?

At this point in time, how much would the Cameroon Government need to pitch in to satisfy the arrangement?

Clarification would be greatly appreciated.

 

[CarbonSteel]

Update.

Received "Read Receipt" from my email to SDL but no answer. (See previous post for content)

Seems like there is buying in any weakness, I fully expected us to be at 17.5 or lower, but it has held well at 18.0 (For the benefit of those forum rules lovers)... I think this is because:
1. There is really no new good news.
2. It may be a while before there is some new good news.
3. I would have thought that the "traders" would have opted for greener pastures (as there are probably share price fluctuations with a wider swing elsewhere) and deserted us.

For the record. I hold SDL and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

 

[munga]

Update.

Received "Read Receipt" from my email to SDL but no answer. (See previous post for content)

Seems like there is buying in any weakness, I fully expected us to be at 17.5 or lower, but it has held well at 18.0 (For the benefit of those forum rules lovers)... I think this is because:
1. There is really no new good news.
2. It may be a while before there is some new good news.
3. I would have thought that the "traders" would have opted for greener pastures (as there are probably share price fluctuations with a wider swing elsewhere) and deserted us.

For the record. I hold SDL and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

exactly u like me i will continue to hold for the good news.everybody holding this stock is scared of missing the gravy train hence the stock holding up. still see more downside as time goes on as nervs get the best of some but a lot of diehards holding imo

 

[samt75]

SDL has finished at 0.205c.
It went for a good run in the last week.




I am a SDL shareholder and proud of it.

 

[CarbonSteel]

SDL has finished at 0.205c.
It went for a good run in the last week.
I am a SDL shareholder and proud of it.

0.205... WOW
So, samt75, was this a raid on a Friday when everyone was almost asleep till Monday? The educated money making a surprise attack because that particular money knows something? Seems odd that we should improve so much after 16:00 doesn't it? Especially to a new high for the year when there is currently no news! Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining about an increase in price in a share that I own. I'm curious about how this sharemarket business works.....really, an increase after the market has closed... almost like someone is desperate to buy but is trying not to be noticed isn't it?

Anyone seen snopandsnap lately? You know, the investment banker that said we would be looking at 7 cents in June. I really wish he would grace us with his presence and wisdom now.

 

[zmalecki]

Technical signals, in one day
1.Price Crosses Moving Average (200-week)
2.Commodity Channel Index
3.Momentum
4.MACD

and of course still.....big fundamental perspectives.

1. 2.45 Bln @32%
2. 0.30 Bln @64%
in price @75$ per 100% equivalent it is 77 bln$ resources.

let assume 30 mln T 100% equvalent @ 75 FOB
=2250 mln$ /year
Pre production 3.3 bln$ -> c.a. - 660 mln$ year capital cost
- 590 mln$ operation (19.65$/T)
- 295 mln$ amortyzator
------------------------------
705 mln$ yearly
75% = 529 mln$

from other hand 2.1 bln outstanding shares.

EPS = .25$ -> PE retio (in USD) = 0.68

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leasd us to .25*10/(.68) = 3.67$ price per share (in USD).
3.67 * 1.2(echange rate) give us 4.4 AUD/share.

This is my target price

 

[CarbonSteel]

EPS = .25$ -> PE retio (in USD) = 0.68

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leasd us to .25*10/(.68) = 3.67$ price per share (in USD).
3.67 * 1.2(echange rate) give us 4.4 AUD/share.

This is my target price

Impressive share price if it does achieve that!

I see that you have a good technical ability though I am not educated enough to understand it.

Do you have a timeline or is there an event at which time the share price will reach your target?

 

[poortrader]

i had a small portion of SDL shares and sold out at 18.5 last week

what i have noticed though after watching it carefully, is usually Friday's it has a good day, 20.5 came out of nowhere, especially after 17.5 earlier this week.

 

[CarbonSteel]

I know you've all been worried about Ken Talbots' fate.

Here's the latest...

From "The Australian"

THE proposed six-week trial for Ken Talbot, who's accused of paying Gordon Nuttall almost $300,000 in corrupt payments, will not start for at least a year.

Lawyers for the former Macarthur Coal chief today successfully argued his trial be listed for the latter part of 2010.

Barrister Martin Burns, SC, asked Brisbane District Court chief judge Patsy Wolfe to set a trial date well after the proposed March 2010 trial of businessman Harold Shand - who is accused of paying Nuttall a one-off corrupt payment of $60,000.

Talbot, 58, is charged with 35 counts of corruptly paying valuable considerations to influence favour in relation to principal affairs or business.

It is expected the Crown will allege Talbot, one of Australia's richest men, made 34 corrupt payments of $8333.33 to Nuttall and one of $16,666.66, between October 24, 2002, and September 28, 2005.

Nuttall, 56, was jailed for six years in July after a jury convicted him of 36 counts of receiving corrupt payments.

Earlier this month, Judge Milton Griffin, SC, adjourned Shand's trial for six months because of adverse media publicity.

Tony Glynn, SC, for Shand, said there was a real risk the publicity surrounding Nuttall's conviction had been further charged by statements made by the state's most well-known corruption fighter and former Queensland judge Tony Fitzgerald.

He said while Mr Fitzgerald's comments about corruption in Queensland did not directly relate to Mr Shand, it had ``inflamed'' the situation.

Mr Glynn said there seemed to be a general opinion because Nuttall had been convicted of receiving a payment from Mr Shand that Mr Shand was also guilty.

``That is not the law,'' Mr Glynn said.

``(To adjourn for six months) would not only be giving a fairer trial, it would give the perception of a fairer trial.''

Shand's trial has been listed to commence March 8 next year.

Mr Burn, for Talbot, today argued a similar delay in time should be granted to his client in the event media coverage of Shand's trial, which will again detail Nuttall's involvement, is as detailed as that of the now disgraced MP.

Prosecutor Ross Martin, SC, who appeared via a telephone hook-up, said he did not expect Shand's trial to receive the level of media coverage as the Nuttall trial did.

However, Mr Martin did not oppose judge Wolfe's suggestion a trial could be listed for August.

Judge Wolfe did voice concerns about the proposed length of the trial, Nuttall's went for three weeks, when Mr Burns requested six weeks be set aside.

Mr Burns, when pressed by judge Wolfe, said Talbot's trial barrister, Bob Mulholland, QC, had instructed him the trial could go as long as six weeks.

Judge Wolfe has scheduled the trial to commence on August 30 next year.

Talbot did not attend today's hearing.

 

[munga]

Technical signals, in one day
1.Price Crosses Moving Average (200-week)
2.Commodity Channel Index
3.Momentum
4.MACD

and of course still.....big fundamental perspectives.

1. 2.45 Bln @32%
2. 0.30 Bln @64%
in price @75$ per 100% equivalent it is 77 bln$ resources.

let assume 30 mln T 100% equvalent @ 75 FOB
=2250 mln$ /year
Pre production 3.3 bln$ -> c.a. - 660 mln$ year capital cost
- 590 mln$ operation (19.65$/T)
- 295 mln$ amortyzator
------------------------------
705 mln$ yearly
75% = 529 mln$

from other hand 2.1 bln outstanding shares.

EPS = .25$ -> PE retio (in USD) = 0.68

let assume in production PE retion in area 10 (think not to much)
it leasd us to .25*10/(.68) = 3.67$ price per share (in USD).
3.67 * 1.2(echange rate) give us 4.4 AUD/share.

This is my target price

sorry dont understand any of this. 200 day moving average was crossed ages ago and i am learning technical stuff on the run. is this normal jargon for trader buffs or can somebody explain in simple terms pls