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S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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My call was one day early for the expected bounce, though the ES Globex (overnight futures) did actually
retraced and was up 0.50% at one time before it continued the down move during the RTH.
The SPX found support at 1772 and now in a short term oversold formation. The internals are also in
the oversold territory, so the expected bounce is more likely to occur, (a pullback is needed for a sell off to continue).
Next stop is around 1730 level. Note the GAP just above it. This is more likely to be filled.
 

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I believe that a strong correction is coming soon. I will enter short positions when spx reaches 1885-1940.
 
Price could trade up into the 10th September -/+ 1 . There are two scenarios that may play out and three price levels I am monitoring . My strategy is to observe price action as it moves into the 10th September Time Cycle . The three price levels I am monitoring are 3015 which is a minor price level that should be exceeded . The second price level is 3026 and the main area I am watching is between *3044-3050* if achieved will be a Historic High for The SP500 . 3044 is one Cycle or two full squares up from 5th August 2822 Low . 3050 is two full squares up from 3rd March Low 2728 .From the 3rd of March Low till ( 1oth September 3044 ) High price will have moved at the rate of 1.66 points per degree which could also be an important factor . Price will also be up 6 3/4 Squares from the 26th December 2018 Low . As price approaches the 10th September I will try and refine and quantify a key price zone further . Thanks
 
Curve No 1 has been updated . The Market should follow Curve No 2 more closely . The Top is in at 2989 10th September . Initially I was expecting a Top Price of 3015 . From 10th September 2989 the Main Trend should continue down to 28th October . Curve 2 :
 
27th September 2945 should be minor low as indicated on Curve 2 then we should see a run up to the 9th October before resumption of downtrend into the 28th October
 
I'm no expert on the underlying theory but this seemed like the best place to post it given that the DJIA and the S&P500 are reasonably correlated.

The Dow Transports reached at high in September 2018 which thus far hasn't been exceeded.

In contrast there have since been two new highs since then in the DJIA and three in the S&P500.

To my understanding that's a warning sign, right? The transports are supposed to confirm new highs in the DJIA but seem to be failing to do so.

Others have any thoughts on this?
 
Looking for a Minor Top into the 4th December . The two price targets are 3170 or 3188 and then a correction into the 11th December before resumption of uptrend
 
From the COT:



We can see that the buying of the bigger players has been, well, meh. It is the (almost total) lack of any selling that is the more interesting point.

This rather suggests that any pullbacks will be relatively shallow and short-lived, unless that selling situation changes.

jog on
duc
 
Student of Gann said:
Looking for a Minor Top into the 4th December . The two price targets are 3170 or 3188 and then a correction into the 11th December before resumption of uptrend
Click to expand...

So based on the above (COT), this could well be a reasonable position to take.

jog on
duc
 
Past records indicate Top due for 4th December with two significant price points to monitor either 3170 or 3188 then based upon the first Timing model downtrend to 11th December which could be a 4.25% decline before resumption of trend into Major Top indicated January 2020 .
 
What else can be expected from a FED managed fake market....
 

Ive read this a few times
What on earth is the point of it.

key words
Past
Either
Model
Could

Personally I Think it’s pretty easy
Stay long.
 
I think a short term top maybe already in place here. Possibly a 2 or 3% correction . Agreed about a top early next year)))
 
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