S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P 500

They all mix and mesh. Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.

Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.

IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads. Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first. If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills. Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).

I don't watch enough of Europe to comment, but from those who do, they say DAX is the most important.

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

They all mix and mesh. Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.

Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.

IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads. Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first. If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills. Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).

I don't watch enough of Europe to comment, but from those who do, they say DAX is the most important.

Hey Mr C.
I got to admit oil volume has been a beacon lately. Saw alot of volume in copper and oil on saturday morning, figured we might be close to a bottom.

Ive been looking at the correlation between the USD,gold and the ES lately as well. Gold and the ES are a little cosy, and gold volume is dropping some hints for ES trades, which seems weird to me, but if it holds, i'm game.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: S&P 500

They all mix and mesh. Sometimes one leads, other times it's the other.

Have to watch them all IMO and try get a feel for what is leading what and have to know how they all fit into the equation, where they are in the big picture and where they currently are sitting.

IMO though, SPI and oil are the best leads. Oil traders seem to really be in the know and extremelly cagey, and those same instos that move the ES/Nikkei/HSI, get their SPI possies done first. If someone is going to sell thousands of S&P, the SPI will follow, but if they are trying to sell thousands of SPI, most won't try move the S&P and they can therefore do that afterwards with the same fills. Just my conspiracy theory (and I'm full of them ).

Nice post.

 

[tradingtiger]

Re: S&P 500

Nice post.

This eveving at 6.00pm and then 7.25 pm (all SFE time) the DAX led the way
min by min. The emini followed exactly.

For those familiar with candlesticks- see the three dead crows on a 15 min.

Maybe Greece (not the movie) is filing for bankrupcy??

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

This eveving at 6.00pm and then 7.25 pm (all SFE time) the DAX led the way
min by min. The emini followed exactly.

For those familiar with candlesticks- see the three dead crows on a 15 min.

Maybe Greece (not the movie) is filing for bankrupcy??

The problem is that the dax may be leading the ES and everything else in europe time, but its not an advantage you can trade. Its too quick. You still have to use something else to give you an entry.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: S&P 500

Heheheheh.

YES i,m tooting my horn.


Gone fishing.......... have a great weekend .

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Notable low volume in the ES during RTH. Just normal variation or some reason?

 

[arco]

Re: S&P 500

The potential for an Evening Star pattern to form did not complete as you can see in the diagram below. It always pays to wait for the completion of any candle pattern before considering a position. As you see once the candle closed it gave a completely different (bullish) picture with also an Ichimoku buy signal appearing – all 3 elements confirming (yellow spots).

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).

Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots". Not a bad move in the S&P since then.

 

[Naked shorts]

Re: S&P 500

FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).

Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots". Not a bad move in the S&P since then.

Not to mention Obamas mention of "now is a good time to invest".

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P 500

I'm out of the loop at the mom, but as was the case mid rally when we got to the highs, there is a distinct lack of interest to sell and defend the levels, and as was the case again mid rally, we just drift through the highs.

I did catch a news headline though the other day, talking about regulation on the US banking sector, specifically on their lending. With low rates and a lot of grief still on their books perhaps hidden by 'dodgy new account standards', they will be keen to lend out at least 'less worse debt' to dillute this effect on their books. Any regulation could really stiffle this, and catch a whole lot of consumers/corps out by slowing down the credit cycle once more.

Haven't done ANY research on this or talked to anybody about it, but was just a thought after seeing the news headline.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Fedex reports Q3 2010 earnings at 2.30pm NY time today (18 MAR).
Fedex results a bit of a bellwether and will be closely watched.

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

FOMC statement due today (Tuesday).

Just as an aside, apparently today is the 1-year anniversary of Ben Bernanke's calling of "Green Shoots". Not a bad move in the S&P since then.

I thought last week was interesting and the fomc was actually quite important.
Initially the markets took the fomc as good news, but the pros actually shorted into it especially with metals, oil and currencies(eur,gbp,chf etc).
Then they sat back and waited 24-48 hours, and eventually the euro resumed its slide south after touching 1.38, and then everything popped south on friday night.
But I think it was just a short term swing trade they made, not like January.
I felt there was a significant amount of volume at the end of that slide in commodities and currencies, and it may be more of the same grumbling northward next week.
In terms of correlations, the major industrial metals and oil seem to be most closely correlated to the ES lately. Check out the right hand charts of metals on this site and compare that to a 1 month ES chart, pretty close.

http://www.basemetals.com/popularcharts.aspx

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P 500

Broadway, I think it as the EZ news on the Greece bailouts that led this down move in European currencies (including GBP/USD).

Which seemed to act as a drag on the rest of the world......

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Ohhhh ... there's a little grey swan for us.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: S&P 500

Ohhhh ... there's a little grey swan for us.

Yep, jobs data still a bit wobbly lookin... and looks nicely on cue to make my XAO Analysis 'prediction' good.

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P 500

I haven't posted a chart for a while, so i thought this would be an interesting one to come back with.

Many were expecting a pullback sooner or later, my question to those willing to give some thoughts, is this a pull back that has started, or something more sinister?

My thoughts are this may be a short pull back and i'll look for shorting opps sometime next week. The trend line at 1143 needs to hold to avoid a trip to 1114 i reckon.

I think the next bar will be interesting to see if buyers step up to the plate.

Nice divergence.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

I haven't posted a chart for a while, so i thought this would be an interesting one to come back with.

Many were expecting a pullback sooner or later, my question to those willing to give some thoughts, is this a pull back that has started, or something more sinister?

My thoughts are this may be a short pull back and i'll look for shorting opps sometime next week. The trend line at 1143 needs to hold to avoid a trip to 1114 i reckon.

I think the next bar will be interesting to see if buyers step up to the plate.

Nice divergence.

Cheers,


CanOz

Imo its a short term pullback which you should be looking for longs next week when the other big volume shows up.
But if your looking for shorts then if that trendline from early february gets broken on the ES, then that might be a good short.

 

[CanOz]

Re: S&P 500

Imo its a short term pullback which you should be looking for longs next week when the other big volume shows up.
But if your looking for shorts then if that trendline from early february gets broken on the ES, then that might be a good short.

Totally agree, after looking at hundreds of charts this weekend.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[wayneL]

Re: S&P 500

The $64,000 question is what does this change?

Nuttin'!

Markets are still rigged, trade to that hypothesis.