S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

[skyQuake]

Re: S&P 500

I heard that there's some german bank going bankrupt which spooked the mkts - thus the selloff on the eminis

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

I heard that there's some german bank going bankrupt which spooked the mkts - thus the selloff on the eminis

Was it related to this dubai default disaster news that's killing the markets tonight?

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

It seems that by all normal measures of sentiment and breadth the S&P500 is just getting further and further out on a limb the higher it goes (though pretty rangebound near the highs at present), driven entirely by the liquidity argument ...

What can stop it? Serious question. The Dubai news took it off about 4% (& now back up again) ... what else is around that can have a similar effect, if not more?

I am wondering about the confirmation of Bernanke. It appears to be a done deal. Is it? Lots of talk about senators delaying the confirmation, and maybe even voting it down. Voting it down seems very unlikely to me ... is it?

He needs to be confirmed by Jan. 31 next year:
Mr. Bernanke's four-year term as Fed chairman ends on Jan. 31, 2010. If he were not reconfirmed by then, he could continue to serve in an acting role until he was confirmed or someone else was confirmed to succeed him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/business/03fed.html

On the other hand, if there is persistent talk of delay and potential for non-confirmation, & then if the confirmation proceeds does that provide a catalyst for the next good move up?

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

NFP ... wow. Thought it was a misprint

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: S&P 500

NFP ... wow. Thought it was a misprint

Need employees for the Christmas period?

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Need employees for the Christmas period?

Consensus was around -119K
Actual announced at -11K

So actual was 1 tenth of consensus forecast ... that is a stunning difference

Christmas demand for extra employees would have been factored into the consensus forecasts ...

I still reckon a typo the most likely explanation (not really)

 

[Naked shorts]

Re: S&P 500

Anyone else think "UoM Consumer Sentiment" was leaked on friday?

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

Anyone else think "UoM Consumer Sentiment" was leaked on friday?

There was a 1-2 pt rise just before the news, at 1.54am syd. Im not sure if this is one of those data releases that give the number just minutes before to people who pay a subscription. Or it could have been a coincidence.

I noticed the EUR GBP AUD rose with the ES on the dubai news, but the usd didn't fall that much. Seems like the USD ES correlation goes in and out of fashion depending on the news. I hope the correlation holds, some of the currency moves can lead the ES (esp the pound).

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P 500

I noticed the EUR GBP AUD rose with the ES on the dubai news, but the usd didn't fall that much. Seems like the USD ES correlation goes in and out of fashion depending on the news. I hope the correlation holds, some of the currency moves can lead the ES (esp the pound).

Yeh, it still looks very shotty to me, wouldn't say it has broken down yet at all by that behaviour. Looking at the daily it looks like it, but a lot of intraday moves are still very correlated.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Useful FOMC statement cheat sheet, for those interested.

http://alephblog.com/2009/12/17/red..._campaign=Feed:+TheAlephBlog+(The+Aleph+Blog)

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

Useful FOMC statement cheat sheet, for those interested.

http://alephblog.com/2009/12/17/red..._campaign=Feed:+TheAlephBlog+(The+Aleph+Blog)

Interesting how the fomc minutes release was the catalyst that moved the ES from 1110 down to 1090. Top of the range all the way to the bottom.

Be she found volume and bounced right back to the top again. ES now around 1113, at the top of range again.

Anyone short in the ES?
Anyone long in the ES?

Thought I saw some top volume last night, but not confident about it.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: S&P 500

Neutral now, would have liked to see this go quicker than it has. It is pretty resilient, hard to get a move either way from this situation/area for me.

Here was my view Broadway back on the 16th of November I think.

Also heard that non-farms saw a lot of long covering (hence the sell-off after nearly positive figures), but not much short position creation, and so my earlier thought of sideways chop was re-confirmed. After that left equities on the backburner. Much more profits in the commodities and currencies.

 

[arco]

Re: S&P 500

.
This move was predicted on the blog. (SP500, Gold, Silver, Oil charts and thoughts are all freely available on the blog).

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Overly simplistic thought, but do the S&P futures continue to cop a pasting until senators have achieved enlightenment (i.e. have fear force it upon them, a la the bailout) and confirm Bernanke?

Or is my tinfoil hat too tight?

ps. FOMC statement due Wednesday.

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

Overly simplistic thought, but do the S&P futures continue to cop a pasting until senators have achieved enlightenment (i.e. have fear force it upon them, a la the bailout) and confirm Bernanke?

Or is my tinfoil hat too tight?

ps. FOMC statement due Wednesday.

Hey timmy,
Im not sure the ES traders care too much, this slide was baked in from early january, it was going to happen no matter what news there was. US bonds began rising from bad jobs data on 9th january. The question is, have we hit bottom yet? Maybe the fomc will be a turning point to head back up. My opinion is that there is enough volume in the market to turn up, its just a matter of when. Oil and copper up last night, but you can feel the nervousness of bullish investors.

 

[Timmy]

Re: S&P 500

Thanks Broadway - sorry, I didn't see your reply until today.

Maybe the fomc will be a turning point to head back up.

Spot on with this so far.

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

Hey Tim,
What I saw was some huge volumes in ESTX50 and CAC40 over the last 72 hours leading up to the fomc, so I figured they were loading up for it.

Then yesterday there were 100 lot trades on multiple dips in the spi, saw at least 5 of these. With some good volume in BHP/RIO.

And finally saw good volume on the spx and sycom just after midnight last night.

Now the question is, how far up do we go?
Im not sure at the moment, I think im seeing some exiting in the ES already. But not sure. The spi rally into the close is promising for more up.

 

[tradingtiger]

Re: S&P 500

What does the EMINI Futures (ES) use to find direction during the after hours session (when the S&P Cash market is closed.

It seems to follow the Aussie market- but why?

 

[Broadway]

Re: S&P 500

What does the EMINI Futures (ES) use to find direction during the after hours session (when the S&P Cash market is closed.

It seems to follow the Aussie market- but why?

Heres how I see things, but happy to be corrected/learn new things.

Japan mostly influences asia, but when it's closed for lunch, the HSI/kospi/stwsgx can do some leading.

The ES runs 23hrs and during asia will most closely follow japan. During europe time, ES parallels ftse/dax.

But if there is news involving the USA during asia time then most of the futures will follow a move by the ES.(eg dubai bailout news)

At times the ES can run parallel to the spi, but this is very unreliable and unpredictable.

The spi during asia time can very easily do its own thing totally ignoring all asian/ES influences.

The afterhours spi(sycom) will then closely follow the ES from 1710 to 0800 aest.
One exception to this is if copper and oil go in a different direction to the ES, then the sycom will follow the ES less closely.

So to answer your first question, imo the nikkei. And then the spi can also follow the nikkei, at times.

But the ultimate question is how do you predict the ES/NK trends?
Volume and price moves in bonds, currencies and oil is what I'm studying lately.
But it depends what correlates to the ES.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: S&P 500

But the ultimate question is how do you predict the ES/NK trends?
Volume and price moves in bonds, currencies and oil is what I'm studying lately.
But it depends what correlates to the ES.

..well the JGBs followed USDJPY which in turn follows the Nikkei

And so the wheel spins and those trying to work it out go mad:screwy: