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S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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Re: S&P 500

beerwm said:
anyone got a good site for up-to-date reports. as they happen

forex factory calendar is abit general
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Getting timely news, as a retail futures trader ... fuggedaboudit. That's my experience.

Cutz has referred to MarketWatch NewsViewer, that's what I use too but it is still well behind a source like Bloomberg (paid service).

For earnings reports, there is Earnings.com. They provide too much! Having said that the times of releases are usually imprecise (watch out for the times they do quote, that is usually an after-the-release webcast from the company).
 
Re: S&P 500

I might stick my neck out for chopping.

Last week seemed like a good place for a major top.

Bottoms arrive when news is terrible and tops arrive when news is really good, like what we heard from Intel and GoldmanSachs.

Banks and semis have fallen since these 2 reports and the only thing holding the ES up is an oil rally. If oil turns down, it might be a case of 'watch out below'.

We'll see I guess.

Have a good week.
 
Re: S&P 500

Thanks Broadway - that's what necks are for I guess .

Earnings season full steam this week. Apparently there are 135 S&P500 companies reporting through to Friday. Earnings.com for those wanting to track these, but I think they are only going to look at 'featured' companies. There should be a good amount of volatility as these earnings reports come - maybe some of the options traders can keep us informed of developments in the VIX.

I am still more inclined to be buying dips than selling rallies, but only on a 'trend is friend' basis. Two-way traffic this week is the best bet, I think.
 
Re: S&P 500

last nights move wasn't that inspiring for the upside, volume wasn't too impressive, could be a bit of no demand in there, spread is fairly wide though. might see a push back down tonight towards 1071ish again, being friday might help that too. time will tell I'm talkin the ES btw. Its been a good week for trading, actually a bit of movement again.

trade well guys
 
Re: S&P 500

I have to go the other way and say 1108ish
 

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Re: S&P 500

ThingyMajiggy said:
Interesting, got a reason why?
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I think an upside break. Third consolidation at the high. Last nights move on low volume could represent an absence of supply now. perhaps the weeks moves down have removed sellers and now only demand remains, hence the relatively easy move up last night.

The other reason is im holding longs. So aot of wishful thinking involved.
 
Re: S&P 500


Valid points, still a bit of supply up there though, that being said I can't really see any major supply coming in just yet overall, just minor tests as we keep rising. I hope it goes well for your longs
 
Re: S&P 500

The one common denominator so far has been sustained buying.

Many on this and other forums have looked for reasons to not believe the moves, call for a large correction or call it over bought etc etc but every dip has seen sustained buying.

It started to look like we were going down when we made a lower high and lower low (I called it in this thread and was completely wrong) but this was met with a move from 1011 to where we are now at 1092, and a touch or two at 1100, with 11 green days out of 15.

Apart from scalping some shorts, this has proved to be a very difficult market to short and there are very few signs that any serious selling will eventuate in the near term.
 
Re: S&P 500


Hi reality,

Love the irony of your alias btw.

There is one thing i have really started to notice though. Correct me if im thinking incorrectly here though.

I have noticed a very large increase of what i believe to be "inside selling".

I notice in many larger cap stocks that there is a certain pattern starting to unfold more prominently. We are getting small volume buys movng up into price points, that take a moderate amount of time, on narrow spreads. When these price points are hit, they are met with sharp rejections. Price moves at a larger spread, on higher volume, and at a much quicker pace.

Is this the result of "smart money" selling into the "weaker hands" at higher price points to better exit trades? These patterns i notice unfolding on 1min and 5 min charts. And Rather then buying increasing at these lower price points, its almost like the selling has just stopped.

Now i also realise there is another explanation to this pattern. But what does everyone else think?
 
Re: S&P 500

Real1ty said:
The one common denominator so far has been sustained buying.

Many on this and other forums have looked for reasons to not believe the moves, call for a large correction or call it over bought etc etc but every dip has seen sustained buying.
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How can they not believe it? its there in the charts, people are just silly if they look for reasons to not believe moves. I'm not calling a large correction if thats what you're implying, just possibly a slight pullback to 1070ish area, but I agree with what you're saying, buying comes in very quickly on pullbacks in this current market.


Even still, the buying on the "lower low" was very obvious, huge volume on the down bars closing in middle or above, back when it was around 1012.

Real1ty said:
Apart from scalping some shorts, this has proved to be a very difficult market to short and there are very few signs that any serious selling will eventuate in the near term.
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Depends, I've had some success lately with shorting the ES, but it would depend on the trader, timeframes etc. plus I tend to be drawn to shorts more than longs

Bull moves always last longer than you expect too, hence why can't really take too much too seriously until we see a definite sign of weakness, which hasn't yet appeared.

Not picking on you, just bored and up for discussion
 
Re: S&P 500

Eeeek, Im far to scared to take shorts on any index atm.

The only shorts of taken a percentage hedges when i think things are going to pull back
 
Re: S&P 500

lukeaye said:
Eeeek, Im far to scared to take shorts on any index atm.

The only shorts of taken a percentage hedges when i think things are going to pull back
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Haha don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not short biased on this market, just trading intra-day, and only when it jumps out at me.
 
Re: S&P 500

I was bearish for tonights session until I noticed a fair bit of late spi volume, not just at 1610, but in the last 10 minutes. Now Im thinking the ES might have a bullish night.
 

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Re: S&P 500

ThingyMajiggy said:
Haha don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not short biased on this market, just trading intra-day, and only when it jumps out at me.
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Well picked Sam , I woke up early this morning to see red, red,red and more red ,,I bet on the nag and it came in last.
 
Re: S&P 500

Up to +16 availble overnight from 15m/30m chart


 

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