Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The MOEX Russia index closed flat at 1,955 on Friday, remaining near the five-year low hit this week and notching a 19% decline on the month amid concerns of fresh military escalation.

The Duma formally signed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions today after a set of referendums, deemed illegitimate by the West, pointed to a large majority in favor of joining Russia.

The news follows pledges by President Putin that Moscow will defend any invasion of Russian territory with nuclear force and triggered a widespread military mobilization in the country, raising concerns of heightened conflict as Ukrainian forces continue their counterattack.

Meanwhile, Gazprom fell 4.5% today as investors weighed on new tax measures that mandate the gas giant to pay an extra RUB 50 billion every month over the next three years.

Meantime, the company welcomed reports from Russian intelligence claiming there is evidence that the West is behind explosions that caused the leak of the Nord Stream pipelines.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed over 4% higher at 2,045 on Monday, as investors took advantage of lower valuations after the index plunged nearly 20% in the prior month to 5-year lows.

The sell-off took place after President Putin’s announcement of military mobilization and nuclear threats in its war against Ukraine.

The Kremlin formally annexed four eastern Ukrainian regions on Friday, met with no approval from the international community and raising concerns that fighting could be escalated as Ukrainian forces extend its counterattack in the disputed regions.

Still, commodity-backed companies continue to face pressure by the announcement that Russia would raise tax exports on commodities to collect RUB 3 trillion to cover its looming budget deficit and increasing war chest.

Gazprom shares under performed to decline session as the new tax measures will mandate the gas giant to pay an extra RUB 50 billion every month the next three years.

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The MOEX Russia index closed marginally higher at 2,046 on Tuesday, holding gains from yesterday’s rebound after pledges to escalate the attack against Ukraine drove the index to lose nearly 20% in September.

Selling pressure returned to blue-chip energy shares and banks, offsetting the extended rebound for miners and metallurgists.

Investors continued to monitor the war in Ukraine and sanctions from Western states, driving Russia’s export-heavy economy to become increasingly isolated.

The halt of gas sales to the West and Europe’s looming oil embargo erased a large amount of Moscow’s revenues and caused a sharp and uncharacteristic budget deficit according to the latest data.

Earlier, the Kremlin announced it would raise tax exports on commodities to collect RUB 3 trillion to cover its spending gap and increasing war chest.

Gazprom tanked nearly 3% as the new tax measures will mandate the gas giant to pay an extra RUB 50 billion every month over the next three years

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The MOEX Russia index dropped almost 1% to 2,030 on Wednesday, after three consecutive sessions of small gains as investors worry about new sanctions.

The European Union approved a new package of sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on Russian oil shipped to third countries and mechanisms to avoid circumvention of sanctions.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the most since the Covid-19 pandemic.
 

The MOEX Russia index closed around 0.5% higher at 2,021 on Thursday, booking losses for the second consecutive session and turning towards the 5-year low hit in the end of September, as investors continued to monitor commodity prices and geopolitical developments between Russia and the West.

Oil producers and distributors closed mixed as investors continued to digest the EU’s price cap on Russian oil imports, as Kremlin officials previously stated sales to economies that engage in price caps is strictly forbidden.

The developments offset the broad rally for crude oil prices this week after OPEC+ announced an output cut, with Rosneft adding 1.6% while Lukoil fell 1.6%.

In the meantime, Gazprom closed nearly 2% higher, extending its volatile momentum as it is set to trade ex-dividend at the start of next week.

Gazprom’s dividends for the first half of the year are expected to be a record-breaking RUB 51.03 per share
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index extended losses and tanked nearly 4% to close at 1,945 on Friday, ending the week slightly lower near the five year-low hit September 26 as investors continued to gauge the effects that recent geopolitical developments may have on the Russian economy.

Earlier in the week, the European Union agreed to a price cap Russian seaborne oil ahead of the outright embargo due early in 2023, pressuring the outlook of energy revenues as heavier-weighing clients in Asia will have increased bargaining power.

Concerns that Moscow can’t finance its budget deficit and its increasing war chest drove policymakers to mandate heavy tax increases to collect over RUB 3 trillion in the next three years.

Among single stocks, Gazprom fell 5.3%.

The gas giant is expected to book even sharper losses on Monday as it will be trading ex-dividend to start next week, with payments to shareholders carrying the stock until Friday set for a record-breaking RUB 51 per share

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 1.4% lower at 1,917 on Monday, partially recovering after opening more than 9% down but still hitting levels not seen in over five years as heavyweight stocks hit their ex-dividend date.

Gazprom shares closed more than 16% lower as its shareholders are no longer rewarded with the company’s dividends.

The gas giant’s board previously approved a record RUB 1.2 trillion dividend payout for H1, totaling over RUB 51 per share.

Tatneft also fell over 6% due to its dividend gap.

In the meantime, Russian forces launched the largest air attack on multiple Ukrainian cities to the west of annexed regions since the start of the invasion in retaliation to the explosion of the Crimean Bridge.

Despite the increased isolation that heightened conflict could bring to the Russian economy, MOEX blue chips of all sectors booked sharp gains with Sberbank, Lukoil, and Nornickel adding over 4%, highlighting the disconnect between Russian markets and the macroeconomic background.
 

The MOEX Russia closed 1.6% higher at 1,948 on Tuesday, erasing last session’s decline and rebounding slightly from the five-year low hit yesterday.

After declining due to dividend gaps among commodity-backed giants yesterday, shares in all sectors closed in the green as heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Western states took the center stage, highlighting the disconnect between movements in Russian financial markets and the external background.

Estimates from Bloomberg point to Russia already having lost 60% of its seaborne crude oil market in Europe ahead of the full embargo early next year, while Russian efforts to squeeze energy in the continent resulted in a virtual halt of natural gas supplies, seriously hurting the government's revenues.

Also, lower oil prices and export volumes pressured goods and services exports to fall in Q3.

In the meantime, the Bank of Russia said that economic activity in the country slowed considerably in the end of September.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally higher at 1,953 on Wednesday, extending last session’s rebound from the five-year low hit on Monday as investors continued to monitor the worsening geopolitical crisis and its effect on the Russian economy.

Among the latest blows, data from the Ministry of Finance showed that Russia’s budget surplus sharply narrowed in September while the current account surplus fell in Q3, providing further evidence that lower energy exports to Europe and the retreat in energy prices continue to reduce Moscow’s revenues.

Concerns that state can’t finance its budget deficit and its increasing war chest previously drove policymakers to suggest heavy tax increases to collect over RUB 3 trillion in the next three years, pressuring commodity-backed shares.

In this session, Gazprom shares tanked the fourth session after Moscow said it could also raise taxes on LNG exports.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed slightly above the flatline at 1,955 on Thursday, extending minimal gains for the third session but failing to significantly rebound from the five-year low hit on Monday as investors continued to monitor worsening geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West and its impact on the Russian economy.

Recent data from the Ministry of Finance showed that Russia’s budget surplus sharply narrowed in September while the current account surplus fell in Q3, providing further evidence that lower energy exports to Europe and the retreat in energy prices continue to reduce Moscow’s revenues.

This session, oil producers closed in the green after Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the government could increase capacity of ports to bolster seaborne oil exports instead of pipelines to combat decreasing energy revenues.

On the other hand, Gazprom booked losses for the fifth session.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% lower at 1,949 on Friday, halting three consecutive sessions of gains and remaining relatively close to the five-year low hit this week as worsening geopolitical developments compounded the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop.

This week, data from the Ministry of Finance showed that Russia’s budget surplus was nearly erased in September while the current account surplus fell in Q3, providing further evidence that lower energy exports to Europe and the retreat in energy prices continue to reduce Moscow’s revenues.

Heavyweight commodity shares continued to bear pressure from plans of higher export taxes by Moscow to finance the looming budget deficit, aiming to raise over RUB 3 trillion by 2025.

On top of that, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russian gas production could contract by 10% in 2022, adding to blows for Gazprom as their shares tanked nearly 20% this week.

12 MONTH CHART MOEX

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains to close 3.2% higher at 2,013 on Monday, recovering from the five-year low touched last week despite the concerning macroeconomic backdrop, highlighting the disconnect between Russian financial markets and external developments.

After the federal budget data released last week nearly erased Russia’s strong surplus balance, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will use Russia's National Welfare Fund to finance its looming budget deficit for the first time, underscoring the country's precarious financial conditions.

While budget data shows that energy revenues have significantly shrunk since the start of the invasion, income is set to fall even further in December with the EU’s oil embargo, which also prohibit's EU tankers from being used to send oil to top consumers China and India.

Meanwhile, property developers led the gains in the session after the Duma extended preferential family mortgage programs until 2024.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index reversed early losses and closed 1% higher at 2,032 on Tuesday, extending the sharp rebound last session and highlighting the disconnect between Russian financial assets and external developments.

The European Union announced it will establish a benchmark index for LNG purchasers in member-states, aiming to curb the rise in electricity prices.

Gazprom closed slightly lower, also pressured by a further decline in natural gas prices.

In the prior session, the Ministry of Finance announced that for the first time it will use Russia's National Welfare Fund to finance its looming budget deficit, as federal budget data released last week showed that depleting revenues from energy exports nearly erased Russia’s strong surplus position.

Banks closed as the sharpest gainers of the session, with VTB shares jumping 2.6%.

At the same time, Lukoil outperformed oil companies to add over 2%.
 
Cannot get your funds out of the Russian market if they won't let you. That tends to distorts the actual veracity or reported value of that share market too.

 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 2.9% lower at 1,973 on Wednesday, erasing gains from the rally in the prior two sessions and approaching the five-year low hit last week as signs of aggravation in Russia’s war against Ukraine further isolate Russia’s economy.

President Putin declared Martial Law in the four Ukrainian regions formally annexed by Moscow, setting the precedent for heightened territorial dispute and worrying investors of possible retaliations from the international community.

On the corporate front, oil shares were among the sharpest losers of the session, with Lukoil tanking 2% and Rosneft dropping 0.5%.

The outlook for the sector remains grim as the EU is set to halt seaborne oil imports and prohibit tankers from shipping oil to costumers in Asia in December, after recent budget data showed that Moscow nearly wiped out its strong surplus position due to depleting energy export revenues.

In the meantime, Rusal shares sank 4.5% as they traded ex-dividend

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The MOEX Russia index closed 2.4% higher at 2,025 on Thursday, nearly erasing the 2.7% drop from the prior session as investors continued to monitor worsening geopolitical tension, further underscoring the disconnect between Russia’s macroeconomic backdrop and equity market movements.

In latest developments, the Russian cabinet allocated RUB 1 trillion from its National Wealth Fund to cover the deficit set for this year, a move that has never been done before, as energy revenues for Moscow are quickly collapsing.

On the corporate front, oil shares booked strong gains despite the grim outlook for the sector, as the EU is set to halt seaborne oil imports and prohibit tankers from shipping oil to customers in Asia in December.

Lukoil shares jumped over 4%.

On the macro front, the latest data showed consumer inflation rose for the fourth consecutive week while producer inflation was steady in September, adding to bets the CB will pause its rate-cutting cycle next week.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 0.9% higher at 2,044 on Friday, gaining nearly 5% on the week despite the worsening macroeconomic backdrop and geopolitical developments during the period, underscoring the disconnect between Russia’s financial markets and the external situation.

The Kremlin announced that it allocated RUB 1 trillion from its rainy-day fund to cover the looming budget deficit set for this year, an unprecedented move, highlighting the deterioration of Russia’s economy as it becomes secluded from the international community.

Investors continue to assess how upcoming retaliatory measures could impact Russia, with the EU’s oil embargo set to start December, in addition to the renewed potential of price caps on energy.

Individual share movements were dominated by dividend announcements, with Lukoil adding 7.7% on the week as investors await potential news of dividends to be approved by the giant’s board.

MOEX 12 MONTH CHART
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.9% higher at 2,061 on Monday, extending the 5% jump last week to a one-month high amid hopes that blue-chip companies will announce dividend payments despite the worsening macroeconomic backdrop.

Lukoil shares continued to outperform, soaring 20% in the last four weeks.

Shares in the energy sector also received support from payout possibilities after Finance Minister Siluanov said that the cabinet is in favor of state-backed companies paying dividends.

Still, the outlook for energy producers remains clouded as the EU’s oil embargo and potential price cap are set to compound the depletion in energy revenues for Moscow.

Consequently, Russia will have to use part of its rainy-day fund to make up for its looming deficit for the first time ever.

In the meantime, Rusagro jumped 2.3% after releasing third quarter results.
 

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 3% higher at 2,130 on Tuesday, extending the sharp rally from recent sessions as hopes that blue-chip companies could announce dividends supported demand for equities across multiple sectors.

Oil giant Rosneft added 4.5% after it announced its board of directors will meet to discuss the amount paid for the first three quarters of the year, while Lukoil added nearly 3% on expectations of payouts.

Gazprom shares also closed among the leaders and added more than 5%. Data compiled by Bloomberg pointed to China having imported record quantities of liquified natural gas from Russia in September.

Still, the outlook for energy producers remains clouded as the EU’s oil embargo and potential price cap are set to compound the depletion in energy revenues for Moscow.

Consequently, Russia will have to use part of its rainy-day fund to make up for its looming deficit for the first time ever.
 

The ruble-based MOEC Russia index closed 0.4% lower at 2,120 on Wednesday, halting a four-session rally and easing from the one-month high hit yesterday.

Investors continued to focus on corporate results and dividend announcements for blue-chips traded in Moscow, as existing sanctions have isolated Russia’s economy from the international community and the deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop has little effect on Russian equities.

Among the heavyweights, investors await dividend announcements for Rosneft and Lukoil.

Miners were among the main losers of the session, with Norilsk Nickel dropping more than 2.5%.

On the macroeconomic data front, investors awaited production data to be released shortly after the closing bell.
 
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