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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The MOEX Russian Index closed 1.1% down at 2,293 on Thursday, erasing gains from the previous session as investors continued to assess Russia’s economic outlook amid the EU’s oil embargo.

The financial sector closed sharply in the red, with freshly sanctioned Sberbank down 1.4% while VTB subtracted nearly 2%.

The heavyweight energy sector also booked losses, with Gazprom ending lower to partially erase yesterday’s rally.

Lukoil stocks dropped 1.8% to its lowest close since April, as EU sanctions on Russian oil continued to pressure the sector.

Trade data from last week showed that oil export revenues fell 10% from the previous period, despite notching a 6-week high in trading volume, as lower demand from Europe sank the prices for Urals crude.

On the data front, Russian inflation slowed to 17.1% in May, setting the stage for further rate cuts for the CBR decision tomorrow.

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The Moex Russia index closed 0.4% or 8 points lower at 2286 on Friday as traders weighed a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut and an ease in capital controls.

The Bank of Russia lowered the key interest rate to pre-invasion levels, and hinted further cuts could follow.

At the same time, the finance ministry said Russian exporters will no longer have to sell their foreign currency earnings.

The ratio of mandated revenue conversion for export denominated business was initially set at 80% but reduced to 50% last month.

For the week, the index ended 1% lower.

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6 Month Chart
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https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

The MOEX Russia Index closed a volatile session slightly higher at 2,288 on Tuesday, resuming trading after a long weekend as looser monetary conditions set by the central bank offset the negative outlook for Russia’s economy amid stronger energy sanctions and worsening global sentiment.

Utilities led the gains, with Unipro shares soaring 21.7% after Finnish energy giant Fortum said it is selling its Russian assets, including its Unipro stake.

Gazprom, Inter Rao, and FGC UES also closed sharply higher amid speculation that energy giants will compete to acquire Fortum’s power grid assets, with the deadline for a binding deal set for the end of the month.

On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 150bps to 9.5%, marking a return to pre-Ukraine invasion levels and lifting energy demand.

Still, Lukoil shares extended recent losses and underperformed the energy sector, tracking a wider Brent-Urals spread amid the EU’s oil embargo.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

The MOEX Russia Index closed 1.3% higher at 2,319 on Wednesday, bouncing back from six-week lows with support from banks and a rebound from miners, while investors continued to assess the outlook for the Russian economy amid stronger energy sanctions.

Banking giants Sberbank and VTB were both in the green, led by the latter after VTB’s CEO said that the bank plans to return to profitability in 2023.

Oil stocks were also higher, with Lukoil shares surging 5.7% in the session and Rosneft gaining 1% on the back of higher Urals prices.

On the other hand, Gazprom edged 0.6% lower after announcing it cut shipments in the Nord Stream pipeline by 60%, while reducing Italian flows by 15%.

Still, losses for the stock were capped by surging gas prices due to the measure, which lifted Novatek shares by over 5%.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 2.2% higher at 2,370 on Thursday, extending last session’s jump with support from the energy sector and mining stocks, as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Russian economy amid continued isolation from the West.

Oil stocks were among the top gainers, with Lukoil and Tatneft both adding nearly 3% on the back of a narrower spread between Brent and Urals and higher crude exports to India.

Gains in the financial sector also supported the index, with banks rebounding from recent lows and both VTB and Sberbank closing more than 1% higher.

On the other hand, Gazprom shares pared gains and closed slightly lower, as the natural gas giant continued to cut supplies to Europe.

Flows in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline remained at 40% capacity, while Italy’s Eni stated it only received 65% of supplies it had booked, heightening uncertainty of future gas supplies to Europe.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

The MOEX Russia Index closed 0.7% lower at 2,354 on Friday, pulling back from two consecutive sessions of growth as energy supply to Europe took the spotlight.

Gazprom extended its decline after it cut the capacity of its Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 40% this week.

European authorities accused Moscow of weaponizing energy to spark a crisis, raising concerns that Russia’s economic isolation could increase.

The cuts were recorded as fresh data from Kpler showed Russian energy exports to Asia have surged in May, with Indian Urals crude import volumes rising over 800% compared to pre-invasion levels, while Russia PM Novak said that gas deliveries are also seen higher.

Elsewhere, Sberbank and VTB edged up after the CBR said larger banks don’t need extra capitalization, and constructors gained after President Putin proposed a cut to the subsidized mortgage rate in his speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.

The benchmark MOEX index closed the week 3.1% higher.

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6 Month chart
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The MOEX Russia Index closed over 2% higher at 2,404 on Monday with support from banks, while investors continued to monitor Russia’s energy supply to Europe.

Sberbank and VTB jumped 6% and 4.7%, respectively, while Rosbank shares surged 10% after owner Interros Capital announced a share buyback.

Meanwhile, Gazprom shares fell after it cut supplies to Europe further.

Flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline fell under the 40% capacity level from last week, while Italy reported to receive less than half of planned supply.

European authorities accused Moscow of weaponizing energy to spark a crisis, exacerbating concerns that Russia’s economic isolation could increase.

The cuts were recorded as Russian energy exports to Asia surged, with Indian Urals crude import volumes rising over 800% compared to pre-invasion levels while exports to China rose to a record-high.

In turn, higher gas prices supported Novatek shares to surge 11.7%.

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The MOEX Russia Index extended intra-day losses to close 1.9% lower at 2,359 on Tuesday, as investors continued to monitor Russian energy supplies to Europe and Asia.

Gazprom shares closed 3.5% lower, extending losses for a third session to two-week lows as expectations of gas flows to Europe returning to original volumes continued to decrease.

The state-backed giant announced a suspension of supply to Greece and rejected more transit capacity through Ukraine, while capacity in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline remained below 40% and Italian supplies were at half of those planned.

Steep losses also took place for the oil sector, with data showing that exports to Asia surged as lower demand from Europe pressured prices of Urals crude.

Oil import volumes in India rose over 800% compared to pre-Ukraine invasion levels while exports to China rose to a record-high during May.

Meanwhile, VTB and Sberbank dropped 2.7% and 1.7%, respectively, partially erasing yesterday’s rally.

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The MOEX Russia Index erased early losses and closed 0.6% higher at 2,374 on Wednesday, supported by sharp rebounds for energy and banks while fertilizer producers extended their rally.

Lukoil shares closed 2.5% higher while Tatneft gained nearly 1% as China and India consolidate as the main purchasers of Russian oil with European states seen phasing supplies out.

Chemicals and fertilizer producers also booked gains, supported by higher fertilizer prices and led by a 2.3% jump for Akron shares.

On the other hand, Gazprom shares closed 2% lower, marking the fourth consecutive session in the red as gas flows to Europe remain at lower levels, while surging gas prices may result in a lone RUB 416 billion tax increase for the LNG giant.

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The MOEX Russia Index extended closed 1.2% higher at 2,400 on Thursday, extending yesterday’s rebound with support from banks, tech, and fertilizer stocks, while the oil sector backed off its morning rally.

Fresh data showed domestic consumer prices fell 0.2% on the week ending June 17th, adding to bets that the central bank could cut interest rates further than the pre-invasion level of 9.5% to ease the strength of the ruble.

The tech sector reacted positively to expectations of lower borrowing cost, with internet services giant Yandex closing nearly 4% up.

Banks also booked gains, tracking higher prices for OFZ bonds with Sberbank nearly 3% higher.

In the meantime, Gazprom erased earlier losses and closed 2.6% up, halting four consecutive sessions in the red.

Investors continued to assess the impact that large supply cuts and surging gas prices could have have in the company’s profits.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 0.7% lower at 2,388 on Friday, retreating from the near one-month high touched last session as world-wide recession jitters pressured Russia’s heavyweight commodity stocks.

Oil stocks, miners, and fertilizer producers closed in the red, with Lukoil, Polymetal, and Phosagro losing more than 1%.

At the same time, Gazprom stocks declined 2.5% as investors continued to monitor natural gas supply levels to Europe as Germany entered the second stage of its emergency plan.

On the other hand, real estate developers extended yesterday’s rally after lower consumer price data and a strong ruble raised expectations of rate cuts by the CBR. Still, the MOEX Russia Index gained 1.5% on the week.

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Six Month MOEX Chart
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The MOEX Russia Index closed 0.8% higher at 2,417 on Monday, the highest in one-month, supported by financial and tech sectors despite Russia’s sovereign debt default and threat of new restrictions.

Sweeping sanctions blocked Russian payments to foreign creditors through Western financial institutions, marking an official default on $100 million in Eurobond interest payments that were due May 27, Russia’s first default since 1918.

While credit rating agencies pulled assessments on Russia since the start of its invasion, the default should hamper Russia’s future access to foreign credit.

On the corporate front, Yandex surged 8.2% and led tech stocks higher as investors continued to speculate on a rate cut by the CBR amid consumer price deflation and a strong ruble.

On the other hand, miners booked losses after US President Biden said the G7 will ban imports of Russian gold.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 0.2% lower at 2,412 on Tuesday, as sharp losses among mining stocks more than offset gains for telecoms and real estate developers, while investors monitored new penalties against Russia from G7 countries.

Miners led the losses, with Petropavlovsk plunging 8% while Polymetal dropped over 4%, after G7 leaders agreed to halt Russian gold imports during their summit in Bavaria.

At the same time, Lukoil shares fell 2.7% after its Vice President and co-founder stepped down.

The energy sector was muted on average, unfazed by the G7's agreement to explore a price ceiling on Russian oil and gas imports.

On the other hand, property developers were sharply higher after the Kremlin lowered Russia’s preferential mortgage rate to 7%.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 1.1% lower at 2,381 on Wednesday, extending yesterday’s decline as investors continued to monitor the West’s new measures against Russia.

The financial sector fell the most, with TCS Group and Sberbank down more than 5%, while VTB shares dropped over 3%.

Miners continued to trend lower after G7 leaders agreed to halt Russian gold imports.

The ban exacerbated the low confidence in the sector, as recession fears dented demand for metals and a surging ruble drove the price up for importers.

Norilsk Nickel shares closed 3.3% lower.

In the meantime, Gazprom stocks were muted as it continues to drastically cut natural gas exports to Europe, despite the surge in prices charged.

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The MOEX plunged 7.3% to close at 2,205 on Thursday, the lowest in over two months, as Gazprom’s dividend withdrawal triggered a sharp sell-off in Russian equities.

It marks the highest profile annulment of dividend payments since the phenomenon became common due to sweeping sanctions from the West, sparking contagion across all sectors in the session.

Shares from the state-owned giant plummeted 30% after retracting the previously announced record-high dividends of RUB 52.53 per share, spurring a rally that significantly outperformed the broader index to near pre-invasion levels.

The board remarked that current conditions were not appropriate for profit distribution, as the company must re-invest its resources for the winter.

Despite the significant cut of exports to Europe, Gazprom's revenues are estimated to be robust as surging natural gas prices led to record earnings in 2021

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The MOEX Russia Index closed at the flatline at 2,207 on Friday, remaining around two-month lows following yesterday’s 7.3% drop, as investors continued to assess the health of the Russian business climate after Gazprom abandoned dividend payments from record-setting revenue levels.

The state-backed natural gas giant fell 7%, extending yesterday’s 30% plunge.

Shortly before the closing bell, Nord Stream AG, Gazprom’s subsidiary, announced that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline will halt for a week and a half due to repairs.

The pipeline has been operating at 40% capacity, spurring Western leaders to accuse Russia of weaponizing energy supplies.

On the other hand, the oil sector rebounded sharply from yesterday’s declines.

Confidence in the sector remains robust compared to natural gas, as exports to Asia offset shunned demand from European purchasers.

Rosneft rose 3.5%, while Lukoil closed 1% higher.

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6 Monthly Chart MOEX

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The MOEX Russia Index erased earlier gains and closed below the flatline at 2,205 on Monday, its lowest close in over two months, as investors continued to assess the health of the Russian economy and business climate after high-profile companies abandoned dividend payments.

Gazprom shares dropped 3.8%, extending its decline since Thursday to nearly 40% on the news that it abandoned dividend payments from the 2021 financial year, which saw the giant bring record-breaking revenues.

The dividend withdrawal brought speculation on natural gas revenues that the Russia state may have in 2022, as it continues to cut supplies to Europe while G7 countries discussed placing price ceilings on Russian energy imports.

On the other hand, the financial sector closed sharply higher, with VTB shares jumping 6% while Sberbank added more than 1%.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed a choppy session 1% higher at 2,220 on Tuesday, rebounding slightly from the two-month low touched last session as investors continued to monitor energy exports to Europe and Asia and how it may affect Russia’s economy.

After plunging nearly 40% in the past three sessions due to the withdrawal of dividend payments, Gazprom shares closed 6% higher and led the index's rebound in afternoon trading.

The dividend cancellation from Russia’s largest company raised speculation of lower revenue expectations this year as natural gas supplies to Europe are seen progressively lower.

The financial sector also closed in the green, with Sberbank and VTB gaining 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.

In the meantime, Rusal stocks jumped 6% following news that the miner may merge with Norilsk Nickel.

Equity trading at the MOEX remains low compared to pre-invasion levels, with fresh data from the MOEX pointing to a 60% yearly plunge in trading volumes during June.

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The MOEX Russia Index erased early gains to close 0.2% down at 2,222 on Wednesday, as growth concerns pressured all sectors in Moscow.

Technological service providers were the main laggards, with Headhunter and Yandex dropping 6.7% and 2.7%, respectively.

Miners also fell as worldwide worries of an economic slowdown dented the outlook for metals, with Polymetal and Severstal closing in the red after trading sharply higher in the start of the session.

Still, losses in commodity-backed stocks were capped by government pledges to devalue the ruble, which improved the outlook for Russian export-heavy industries.

Meanwhile, Gazprom failed to consolidate its rebound and fell 1% as investors continue to assess revenue expectations amid uncertain gas supplies to Europe.

Last week, the state-backed giant cancelled dividend payments from a record-setting 2021, plunging nearly 40% and sending the MOEX index into 2-month lows.

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