Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war


The MOEX Russia Index closed 1.1% down at 2,317 on Tuesday, amid concerns over the Russian economy and the prospect of additional western sanctions.

Central Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Monday that the Russian economy “will enter a period of structural transformation” in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, interpreted as signals of harsh economic contraction.

Also, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said over the weekend that the EU could soon impose its sixth package of sanctions to target Russia’s banking and energy sectors.

Financial stocks led the losses in Moscow, with Sberbank falling 2.9% and VTB ending 1.7% lower.

Meanwhile, Tatneft shares dropped 3.5% as it was one of the first Russian firms to begin the process of delisting their depository receipts from foreign bourses.

The move came after the central bank announced firms had to complete the delisting by May 5th, following the decree signed by President Putin to limit foreign control on Russian firms.

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The MOEX Russia Index erased earlier losses to close 0.6% higher at 2,330 on Wednesday, with rebounds from the financial sector and mining stocks as investors continue to digest risks with the prospect of additional sanctions from the West.

VTB led the gains to end 3.2% higher, while Sberbank closed 1% up.

Severstal outperformed the mining sector to gain 4.1%, extending its rebound to three consecutive sessions in the green.

Meanwhile, the European Union said it is considering an oil embargo on Russia, with EU Commission members in talks with oil companies to negotiate alternative suppliers.

The move pressured Lukoil shares to close 4% down, while Gazprom dropped 0.9%.

The sixth package of sanctions from the EU could also include harsh penalties on lending giant Sberbank and a ban on nuclear fuel. .

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The MOEX Russia Index fell 2.6% to close at 2,271 on Thursday, falling to the lowest level in two months as the energy and financial sectors were pressured by new sanctions from the West.

In the latest developments, the US joined the EU and Canada to ban Russia-linked ships from American territory, further obstructing imports of Russian goods after President Putin declared victory of the siege of Mariupol.

Sberbank shares sunk 3.4%, while VTB closed 1.6% lower.

Besides drafts of sanctions on Russian energy, European states continue to search for alternative supplies of energy to reduce dependency in Russia.

Gazprom fell 4% and Lukoil plunged 7.8%.

Meanwhile, Yandex declined over 8% after the e-commerce giant announced it suspended all financial forecasts for 2022 and scaled back its planned investments, due to Moscow’s deteriorating isolation from the world economy.

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The MOEX Russian Index closed 1.7% down at 2,232 on Friday, extending the weekly loss to 8%, pressured by financial stocks as investors continue to monitor moves by the Central Bank of Russia ahead of their meeting next week.

After stating that the Russian economy “will enter a period of structural transformation” in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, interpreted as signals of harsh economic contraction, CBR Governor Nabiullina signaled that the bank could slash rates further in its next decision.

Risks of a sixth EU sanctions package pressured Sberbank to lose 1.4%.

Lukoil declined 3.7%, closing the week 22% down, as European states seek alternative energy supplies while the EU Commission announced it was working on cost cutting measures to make a Russian oil embargo possible.

Meanwhile, Novatek fell 2.9% after it announced it will not publish its operating results for Q1, citing the suspensions of depository receipts from international bourses and sanctions as reasons.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 2.1% lower at 2,186 on Monday, falling to its lowest in two months, as the prolonged invasion of Ukraine and risk of further sanctions against Moscow continued to weigh on Russian equities.

Reports indicated that the EU is preparing “smart sanctions” for its sixth package against Russian oil imports that may be unveiled later this week, aimed at maximizing pressure on Russia with minimal collateral damage.

Sanction threats and lower crude prices due to growth jitters in China pressured the energy sector to close in the red.

Prospects of economic penalties also pressured the financial sector, with Sberbank ending 4.3% lower.

The lender’s shares have lost 23% of their value since the start of the month, amid reports that it is also a primary target in the EU’s sixth sanction package.

On the earnings front, Polyus fell 4.5% after it declined to publish its operating results while Polymetal plunged 8.6% after posting a 6% y-o-y decrease in production.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 2.1% lower at 2,186 on Monday, falling to its lowest in two months, as the prolonged invasion of Ukraine and risk of further sanctions against Moscow continued to weigh on Russian equities.

Reports indicated that the EU is preparing “smart sanctions” for its sixth package against Russian oil imports that may be unveiled later this week, aimed at maximizing pressure on Russia with minimal collateral damage.

Sanction threats and lower crude prices due to growth jitters in China pressured the energy sector to close in the red.

Prospects of economic penalties also pressured the financial sector, with Sberbank ending 4.3% lower.

The lender’s shares have lost 23% of their value since the start of the month, amid reports that it is also a primary target in the EU’s sixth sanction package.

On the earnings front, Polyus fell 4.5% after it declined to publish its operating results while Polymetal plunged 8.6% after posting a 6% y-o-y decrease in production.

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Actually, Monday losses could be a reflection of commodities fall and indicative of an expected ? fall here on the asx miners today?
 

The MOEX Russia Index jumped 6.1% to close at 2,318 on Tuesday, recouping loses after sinking to a two-month in the previous session, as investors continued to assess risks surrounding the ongoing war in Ukraine and the potential of a sixth package of sanctions form the EU.

Prospects of another rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia this week also aided sentiment, while President Putin proposed reducing the subsidized mortgage rate to 9% from 12%.

Banking shares led the gains, with Sberbank surging 9.4% and VTB gaining 5.3%.

The energy sector also lifted the index, with Lukoil and Gazprom both closing over 9% higher as EU states are yet to agree on the extent of penalties on Russian energy.

In the meantime, TCS Group jumped 8.7%, as investors continue to monitor whether the sanctioned founder Oleg Tinkov will sell his stake.

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The MOEX Russia Index closed 4.6% higher at 2,424 on Wednesday, extending the sharp rebound in the previous session.

Gazprom shares ended 5.1% higher after the state-backed natural gas monopoly halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, seen as Russia’s biggest retaliation to Western sanctions as EU states refused to pay for the gas in rubles.

Financial stocks also booked sharp gains, with Sberbank ending 7.1% and VTB gaining 4.4%.

Further, shares from TCS group surged 20.1%, extending the recent rebound after the Bank of Russia ordered brokers to account for Russian shares received from the conversion of foreign depository receipts at 0.2% of their value.

Stocks in the tech sector also ended significantly higher, as sentiment was supported by prospects of another rate cut by the Russian central bank this week.

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The MOEX Russia Index ended 1.7% lower at 2,384 on Thursday, erasing gains after having been up over 3% on the session as renewed sanction threats from the West pressured Russian blue-chip stocks, while investors monitored the Kremlin’s move to halt gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland.

State-backed giant Sberbank was among the main losers, ending 5.5% lower amid reports that Germany was closer to backing the EU’s sixth package of sanctions.

Besides harsh penalties against Sberbank, the measures could include an oil embargo, pressuring Lukoil shares to drop 3.7%.

On the other hand, Gazprom outperformed the broader index and ended slightly higher after reporting a net profit of RUB 2.2 trillion for 2021, over 13 times that of the previous year, mostly due to higher gas prices.

Investors now turn to tomorrow's Central Bank of Russia decision, where policymakers are expected to cut the key rate by 200bps to 15%.

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https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

The MOEX Russia Index ended 2.6% higher at the 2,445 on Friday, rebounding from last session’s losses, supported by banks and the energy sector as investors digested the central bank’s 300bps interest rate cut.

VTB gained 5.1%, following news that it could merge with state-backed banks Otkritie and RNCB.

The energy sector also improved, with Lukoil shares surging 7.3% higher despite its refusal to publish quarterly results, while Gazprom appreciated 1.2%.

Still, the index ended the month nearly 10% lower after resuming trading from a month-long suspension on March 24.

Since then, movements in Russian markets have been artificially supported by capital controls, including a ban on short selling of stocks and a prohibition on foreigners from selling Russian equities.

Selling momentum also came as suspension of dividend payments have been a common occurrence since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with sweeping sanctions from Western states pressuring Russian firms across all sectors.

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6 Month Chart
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Russian MOEX closed Monday for May day holiday
 
The MOEX is closed on Monday and Tuesday for Labor and Spring Day celebrations.
 
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The MOEX Russia Index closed 2.9% lower at 2,373 on Wednesday, following a holiday-extended weekend, as Russia came under pressure from a fresh round of sanctions from the EU due its prolonged invasion of Ukraine.

The EU Commission proposed a six-month phase out of oil import imports from Russia, which sum to nearly $450 million per day according to think tank Bruegel.

Both Lukoil and Rosneft shares fell 3.1% amid the fresh restrictions, while Gazprom dropped 2.6% despite not being directly targeted.

The sanction package also targeted Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, which closed 4.4% down after the announcement that it will be taken off the SWIFT transaction system.

Other stocks in the financial sector also booked losses, led by a 7.9% decline for TCS Group.

In retaliation, President Putin signed a decree that grants the Kremlin power to terminate raw material exports to “unfriendly states”, pressuring miners and agricultural stocks to also close sharply in the red.


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The MOEX Russia Index closed 1.3% higher at 2,404 on Thursday, partially recovering from the 3% decline in the previous session as investors reassessed the impact of new western sanctions on Russian equity.

The EU’s latest proposal included a six-month phase out of Russian crude oil imports, to which multiple EU states protested due to the reliability that many economies have on Russian oil.

The sixth package of sanctions also included penalties on the Russian financial sector, specifically targeting state-backed Sberbank by removing it from the SWIFT system.

The session saw strong rebounds from stocks that were hit by sanction announcements in the last session, with Lukoil gaining 2.7%, while Sberbank closed 1.3% higher and TCS Group jumped over 2%.

Selling pressure from sanctions have been limited, as Russian markets have been artificially supported by capital controls, including a ban on short selling of stocks and a prohibition on foreigners from selling Russian equities.


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The MOEX Russia Index closed 0.5% down at 2,393 on Friday, ending a shortened week 2.5% down, pressured by the possibility of extended contraction of the Russian economy as more sanctions are looming.

The EU Commission proposed changes to the sixth package of sanctions announced on Wednesday, allowing states that are more dependent on Russian oil to have additional time in phasing out their imports, thus strengthening expectations that the embargo will materialize.

The financial sector took the biggest hit, with VTB dropping 1.6% and Sberbank losing 1.4%, while energy giant Lukoil closed 0.9% down.

Still, the selling pressure from sanctions has been relatively limited as Russian markets have been artificially supported by capital controls, including a ban on short-selling of stocks and a prohibition on foreigners from selling Russian equities.

The MOEX will be closed on Monday and Tuesday due to Victory Day celebrations.

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The MOEX will be closed on Monday and Tuesday due to Victory Day celebrations.
 
The MOEX was closed on Monday and Tuesday due to Victory Day celebrations.
 

The MOEX Russia Index closed slightly lower at 2,837 on Wednesday, starting a shortened trading week following Victory Day celebrations with pressure from miners and energy stocks as investors continued to monitor talks within the EU regarding their sixth package of sanctions.

Lukoil shares ended 0.8% down amid the prolonged threat that the EU could impose a six-month phase out of Russian oil imports, which would mark the strongest retaliatory measure against Moscow so far, should reluctant states accept the penalties.

At the same time, Gazprom ended 0.8% higher, even though gas flows from Russia were halted at a Ukrainian transit point, responsible for roughly 8% of total volumes that to Europe.

Meanwhile, Rusagro shares jumped over 3.6% after the group posted a yearly revenue increase of 23% to RUB 61.5 billion for Q1, largely due to surging agricultural commodity prices after Russia’s invasion. .

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https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market

The MOEX Russia Index closed 3.7% lower at 2,298 on Thursday, the lowest over two weeks, pressured by the energy and financial sectors as investors continued to monitor EU talks regarding their sixth package of sanctions.

Lukoil shares declined 5.2% amid the prolonged threat that the EU could impose a six-month phase out of Russian oil imports, which would mark the strongest retaliatory measure against Moscow should Brussels find consensus with reluctant states vetoing the sanctions.

Also, Gazprom fell 4.7% as gas flows to Europe through Ukraine remained restricted, while investors digested a round of sanctions from Moscow on the former German unit of Gazprom, now state-owned, and the owner of the Polish portion of the Yamal pipeline.

Still, selling pressure from sanctions has been relatively limited as Russian markets have been artificially supported by capital controls, including a prohibition on foreigners from selling Russian equities.

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Analysis: The Rise And Fall Of Russia's Stock Market


The U.K. government revoked the Moscow Exchange's status as a “recognized stock exchange” last week. The action came in response to Bank of Russia’s Feb. 28 decision to institute restrictions on foreign investors after international sanctions were placed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

"With the Moscow Stock Exchange failing to withdraw their restrictions on foreign investors, the U.K. had no choice but to remove its recognized status," said Lucy Frazer, financial secretary to the Treasury, in announcing the government’s decision.

"This will stop further money being channeled into Russian assets and send a clear message that there is no case for new investment in Russia."

This decision further isolated the Moscow Exchange from the global financial environment, intensifying the pariah status of an entity that was once hailed as being among the most vibrant platforms for global investors.

An Exciting Ascent: The Moscow Exchange is the union of two exchanges created in the wake of the Soviet Union’s demise and the establishment of the Russian Federation: the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) and the Russian Trading System (RTS). The two exchanges had a combined capitalization valued at $4.5 billion ahead of their merger in December 2011, and the new entity was hailed in Russia as being the nation’s platform to emerge as an international financial center.

"Today we celebrate the merger of the two exchanges, and tomorrow we get back to work on building a world-class financial infrastructure for Russia," said Ruben Aganbegyan, president and CEO of the combined entity, on the day of its merger.

The Moscow Exchange raised approximately $500 million in an initial public offering on Feb. 15, 2013, the largest Moscow-based IPO up to that time. The IPO generated interest from institutional investors around the world and was more than twice oversubscribed.

Over the years, the Moscow Exchange expanded its focus to include trading markets in bonds, derivatives, equities, foreign exchange, money markets and precious metals. It also took on the operations for Russia's central securities depository and became Russia's largest clearinghouse.

According to a Reuters report, foreigners owned about 80% of the tradable stocks on the Moscow exchange as of July 2021, which were worth approximately $200 billion. That was up from 65.6% in 2020.

According to Natalia Loginova, the Moscow Exchange’s head of primary markets, the majority of global institutional investors putting their money into Russia’s stock market were from the U.S. and Canada (54%), with 22% from the U.K. and 21% from elsewhere in Europe.

A Dismal Decline: The Moscow Exchange weathered a period of volatility in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed the Crimea region. Despite condemnation and limited sanctions by the U.S. and European nations against the government of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian stock market continued operating throughout that crisis.

But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Moscow Exchange found itself in a very different environment. On Feb. 24, the Russian government shut down the Moscow Exchange, and three days later issued a new mandate that prohibited foreign investors from selling securities. Trading did not resume until March 24, but only with new restrictions that included a ban on short selling.

The Moscow Exchange quickly became the target of the retaliatory sanctions and political isolation aimed at Putin’s government following the war in Ukraine. On March 2, the Federation of European Securities Exchanges disassociated itself from the Moscow Exchange.

"In light of the Russian government's actions, the FESE Board has recommended that the General Assembly vote to exclude the Moscow Exchange from the association, stripping it of FESE observer member status," the organization said in a statement.

The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), the global industry association for exchanges and clearing houses, suspended the Moscow Exchange from its organization on March 4. The Moscow Exchange had been a WFE member since 2009.

"This decision, which is consistent with the global response to this matter, was not taken lightly," said the WFE in a press statement, noting that the Moscow Exchange was not expelled, and the organization would review its status at a later date.

The aforementioned action by the U.K. government on May 5 that revoked the Moscow Exchange’s status as a “recognized stock exchange” prevents securities traded in Russia from receiving certain U.K. tax treatments and reliefs. However, this would only apply to new investments — existing investments will not be affected.

For its part, the Moscow Exchange has stoically carried on without dwelling on the unprecedented circumstances hampering its operations. In its first-quarter earnings report published last month, it reported fee and commission income during the quarter was up by 15.1% to approximately $151 million, which it credited to “robust trading volumes in January and February 2022.” It also noted that EBITDA rose by 17.8% to roughly $157 million and net profit grew by 18.5% to $11.4 million.

For the second quarter, the exchange curtly acknowledged that it “expects a meaningful decline in trading volumes that may persist in subsequent quarters.”
 
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