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Roller's Intraday futures journey

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No reversal from that area overnight and now it is looking like it wants to rip higher. Next stop for this if it does break out from this zone would be 27 200 which is a gap fill. Hoping for a pullback towards 26850 for a chance to get in but I may have missed the boat. It also wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a really big day to the upside.

Was a bit too volatile early on to trying get in long, but these things happen

 
Roller_1 said:
It also wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a really big day to the upside.
Click to expand...

Not looking like that at the minute! I think I let my long bias cloud my judgement, where price turned there was a definite slowing of momentum to the upside and look like there was some distribution going on. I did not really want to get short there because of my thoughts so we may want to go higher. I think this was okay but then I tried to get in long on the first pullback around 26950.

Which was not the smartest move, as I probably tried to force a trade which I have been good at avoiding lately.

 
We had a big push down overnight with no real bounces at all and carried that momentum into the close.

Before the open I set out a few possible scenarios of what I think may happen. My thoughts were if we want to resume the short term push up from these lower levels then I wanted to see some type of accumulation zone. I did not expect a V shape reversal that would have any long lasting momentum. If we were to get a strong push up from the open then I wanted to look for a chance to get in short targeting lower prices.

It is looking like we are attempting to put in a accumulation zone or a base type situation. I have taken a few small shorts at the top of this range but was a bit too aggressive with my stop. If we get a push down to the lows of the day than I may start looking for longs.





 
Forgot to post the chart yesterday afternoon, we never got the push down I was looking for and I tried to force my narrative on the market again and got caught trying to short around the top of the orange line yesterday before the big run up. I did say that I was looking at that as an accumulation zone so I don't know why I tried to short it… Oh well.

We pushed up overnight to the next area of interest where we stalled at this morning. Once we held the pink line just above 26 450 I got a nice long and exited the last contract at the pink line where price currently is. Overall I think it may push up to 26 800 to 850. But I am happy with where I'm at today so I'm going to leave it.

Yesterday's daily bar was a interesting one. Heavy volume and a fairly narrow spread reversal day. Maybe it will be the catalyst to push through the flag type setup that is currently in, I thought we were going to get that a few days ago but that obviously didn't happen. I try not to pay too much attention to diagonal trendlines but will be a good case study.



Yesterday's daily bar was a interesting one. Heavy volume and a fairly narrow spread reversal day after a outside reversal on fairly low volume.. Maybe it will be the catalyst to push through the flag type setup that is currently in, I thought we were going to get that a few days ago but that obviously didn't happen. I try not to pay too much attention to diagonal trendlines but will be a good case study. Obviously the day still has a long way to go and it could easily reverse this trend overnight

 
Just the one trade so far today, originally I was looking for Longs this morning. The blue line that got rejected early on I was looking for a long around there but we didn't get any consolidation it just took off on the first touch. There are some areas above today's high where I thought it might like to test, but that is looking unlikely at the moment.

One thing I have been working on is not letting my bias cloud my judgement from what price is doing. So I am happy I took that short after the consolidation. Usually I would have still thought that we were going to go long and just left it. I was going to let one contract stay on aiming for the gap fill and pissibly lower levels, but for some reason IB seems to be losing data and then regaining it over and over in the last hour so I just took profits here.

If this area holds, I may be able to get in long but I don't want to do that until after lunch (1pm SA time).

My consistency has definitely increased lately with me focusing on not over trading and only taking what i think are ideal setups. I always ask myself before entering "if this trade is a loser would I still take it again" if the answer is yes then I enter..

 
I never got long in the end, I wasn't at the computer in the afternoon but still happy with today. I wonder if it will continue on overnight to the upside

 
This is the current daily chart of the Nikkei. I was looking for a long this morning as I'm viewing this as a large absorption zone that could be getting ready to break out.

Haven't had a chance to get in yet so hopefully we get a pullback.

 

no lift off today..

i was long in the consolidation at the highs and was reluctant to flip short as i was lookng for a push up
to at least the shaded area above price. Obviously had that wrong but that is what stops are for.

Ended up getting short in the afternoon to get some of the losses back

 
A couple accumulation patterns. Two different time frames two similar patterns. These are similar to what I posted about the other day looking at the daily. Will be interesting if it eventually eventuates


 
I have definitely put together my best month of trading and I have been green every week so far in May. I think a lot of that has been to do with cutting out excessive trades and really just trying to nail the best opportunities each day. But also being okay with if I miss the biggest trade of the day and just taking the lesson instead of trying to chase my tail and over trade. A bit disappointed though as I fell into old habits the last few trading sessions, will be trying my hardest to get back on track next week.

I am also aware though that due to the randomness of trading you can also get on a lucky winning streak as you can with a losing streak. So I like to see a bit more consistency before I think I am starting to turn the corner.

--------

A couple of longer term charts below. A few weeks ago I noted that I was looking for price to come down and either consolidate or reverse in this pink box area.

It was looking like we were going to rally out of it a few times, but it looks as though it has formed a nice accumulation pattern which IF we can get a decent break away and a push-up towards the recent high could set the tone for a few weeks towards the upside but there will be a lot of resistance on the way up I would think.


 
A tough morning to get in on the impulsive move up. There was a decent gap up in the morning to fill an old gap which has been a target for a while now, it dropped away pretty hard from there down to an area where I was looking for some consolidation but did not really see anything. Which was okay, but I was expecting a pullback to test the area around there (shaded box) which never came so I missed the big run up. But I did chuck in one silly short while looking for the pullback but that did not work out.

A small long going up to current levels but I don't want to take any more longs as we are approaching a area where some supply might come into play.

But with the larger accumulation zones that I think I have identified in earlier posts even taking shorts I don't want to go for any sustained moves.


 

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Price has taken off again this morning, I am only at the computer for a short time so probably won't do any trading, the only trade I was looking for was a long from the shaded area below the current bars low but we never quite got down there. If price holds above the 400 level this morning then I can't really see too much in the way up towards 600 which is minor resistance and then the shaded level around 27700. 400 needs to hold though

A bit frustrating that I have been looking for this impulsive move for a while now but haven't been able to take advantage of it but that is okay.

 
A bit of rotation around this area, the 400 level definitely didn't hold on the initial break. A pretty volatile day, no trades for me as I was away for most of it

See what happens overnight in the US after their long weekend

 
Very impulsive move today so far, without me on board! Ouch. I thought that it might like to retrace some more so once we got the initial push up I was short from around 27 700.

This was obviously a low percentage play in hindsight, strong trend towards the upside so I should not even have been trying shorts.

A nice little spring below Fridays low before reversing hard off of cash open. Probably could have been the tell tale of what could unfold. Anyway heading up towards the next possible area of supply

 
This is the current daily chart, we're getting close to the top of the recent swing area. Price is also starting to look a bit extended and might be due for a breather. Will be interesting if it wants to push up to the 415 level or pullback before that. May have started setting up a range around the current level. Will know more by the end of today

 
A pretty wild day so far. Similar to yesterday price dipped below an important level while soaking up some liquidity. Initially I got long, and then reversed once or twice chopping myself up. But I finally got one to stick, I took one contract off on the way up and I was looking for a push up towards the blue line or at least that swing level around 065.

I think the BOJ governor was talking and must have said something that spooked traders and price just dumped away, this blew through my stops on the way down which I had moved to above breakeven.

Once price held that blue line I was viewing this as a test of the spring, so I got long and I am still holding one contract aiming for the blue line.

After this morning's charades I'm lucky to be in profit, some silly trades.. I need to never look at the reverse button again.

 

I have ended up taking profits at that line and then got short when i thought there was some distribution taking place in a possible supply zone. This ended up being correct and there was a nice swing down from there. Some pretty clean moves today which is nice. If I did not do anything stupid in the morning than it would have been my biggest day so far.

Once I was in profit on that short I set my targets and had to leave for a short while, I literally got the computer less than a minute after my first target was hit at the green line around 28,000. I got pretty aggressive with my stop on the last one once we started to drop away hard but I thought overall it might like to take the lows of the day which was still a way off. But I will definitely take it.

 

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A bit of a snooze fest today. Volume has definitely drying up above yesterday's consolidation and there has been minimal movement in the afternoon. Tentatively thinking there could be a reversal not too far away. We are in an area where this would make sense too i think, I still think if price pulls pullback though it would be healthy if we want to continue this uptrend.

I was in a good short early but ended up getting stopped at breakeven. Then took a loss trying to do similar again. Might be standing aside for the rest of the session.

 
Hi @Roller_1,

If you don't mind me asking, are you generally trading the 15 minute chart or is it some other timeframe?

Cheers, Rob
 
rnr said:
Hi @Roller_1,

If you don't mind me asking, are you generally trading the 15 minute chart or is it some other timeframe?

Cheers, Rob
Click to expand...
Hi @rnr
I'm using multiple timeframes, using the higher timeframe to try and gauge direction and possible turning points while using this smaller timeframes to find entries. So I'm looking at everything from weekly down
 
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