RNE - ReNu Energy

[pattyp]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

"Does anyone have any opinions/advice as to whether the current GDY Share-Purchase-Plan is a worth taking up for someone with a tight risk-allowance"

I'm gonna take it up... We are almost at Proof-of-concept... Demo Light bulb switched on, big media attention. This should put a VERY solid support under the price... (Unless we get some disastrous news, always possible).

But I have a HIGH risk tolerance, have been holding this for a very long time (Firm believer in the story), and my VWAP is below 1buc so the SPP has little influence on my position...

I will wait until 11th hour before taking up the offer so as to ensure it is good value for me... If the market price is below 150c then obviously no point

From my point-of-view... If you can buy some stock, free of brokerage, at a 25c discount... Why wouldn't you take it up...?

This is just my opinion, I have no idea about your personal situation... And I'm an idiot...

Pat

 

[travwj]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

PattyP,

I am the same as you...i will be waiting to the last minute to see what the SP is like, and obviously, if it is under a 1.50 i will not buy...but i believe that they will have proof of concept, and once Jolika 1 is finished and hopefully with out any trouble the share price should stay positive....well i hope so.

Would like to know what other people think as well.

Trav

 

[travwj]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Just wondering how many people...if any, took up the share offer...? I took the offer up.... Future looks good IMO.

Trav

 

[dougit]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I took up the offer. Share price is still above $1.50 though dropping. Price usuall tend to gravitate to the latest issue price. Hoping for the best in a bear market

 

[Nashezz]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I took up the offer as well and have been accumulating since 2003. Don't like the recent drop in share price though with no announcement having yet been made. No doubt some can be attributable to the fact 'proof of concept' has again been pushed back (this time to the end of October because a pump seal broke) but I wonder if there are bigger issues that people onsite know about and are leaking.....

 

[mshepherd]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Could be relative to the recent drop in the ASX utilities index 'XUJ' - as GDY is listed as a utility company. Potentialy performing well in comparison to peers. Competition analysis anyone?

Anyone willing to pick a bottom? - wont be too far off IMO. The time already at these levels may warn off any 'panic' selling as holders hang on for a bounce. Possibly hanging around sub $1.50 until 'proof of concept' - which I think also qualifies them for some government grants which they have missed out on previously.

On the other hand it does look that it is completing the last leg of a head and shoulders formation, which (I think) is bearish. An inverted head and shoulders is bullish (see BHP discussion).

Im holding for the ride

 

[andrew08]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Had been looking at picking up some for a while and with recent drop and after reading article below decided to jump in hoping it would help create this price level as the bottom. Doesn't appear to have had any effect on price though

Only have relatively small parcel so will be hanging on for a while. Still new to the market though so may have got it all wrong.



http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0820-geothermal.html

 

[smallfry]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I think there's a couple of points more to consider...

1. There's probably a limited number of investors who consider/realise hot rock technology the base load of the future, or who even know about it. So there might be limited money for investment in those stocks - at the moment. It's good enough for me that Origin, AGL and Tru Energy have all entered into joint ventures with the main movers and shakers in the field.

2. It remains kinda speculative. GDY is a few years ahead of it's competitiors and is proving the technology as it goes, but it is probably not as well placed (geographically) as far as proximity to infrastructure (transmission lines and the grid) goes for large scale expansion where it is currently exploring/developing. Any "bad news" such as delays due to equipment failure, would make folk jittery.

3. Some of their competitiors are in better locations but are a few steps behind. TEY just announced results of testing which give indicated reserves of heat right next to the grid, even in metro Adelaide. Investors may be seeing these stocks as better long term prospects?

I am holding onto 4 different geothermal stocks - I don't expect them to do much really quickly but my feel is when GDY starts making electricity, watch them, and the other stocks depending on the same technology, improve markedly. (and some are dirt cheap at the minute too).

Just my own opinions for what they are worth.

 

[renim]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

something to keep in minds regarding hot rocks is a piece of physics called carnot efficiency. basically it means that the maximum energy you can extract is dependent upon the difference between high temperature and low temperature on scale that uses absolute temperature.
in short if gdy is at 300deg C and competition is at 200deg C, then the 300deg rock is much more valuable than 200deg rock, not just a little bit more valuable.

of course with hot rocks, you still need permeability, and that is something that can only be ascertained after drilling and fraccing.

both these factors need to be right before being concerned about infrastructure amenability.

 

[Nashezz]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

So what are the other tenements of companies outside of GDY have as far as temperature gradients. I know Jolokia 1 is supposed to be about ten degrees hotter than the Habanero area but I would be interested to know what other companies are sitting on...

 

[white_crane]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I was interested in GDY for awhile, on the thinking that HRT is part of the future of energy production. However, even if HRT finds public and/or government support, I can't see GDY making a profit until the development of their planned base load plant. This, isn't due for completion until 2012(?).

Still, if you're prepared to wait, it could be very worthwhile.

 

[Nashezz]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Holy shi'ite. $1.20 a share. What's going on with this thing?

They might have had the biggest take up of a rights issue by retail investors in Australian history but if there is a problem I can't see people doing it again anytime soon as the share price has just dropped 20 odd percent below the rights offer price.

Pretty steep drop for a 'delay' although its not the first time GDY has had a delay and the last one became more then just a delay...

 

[orr]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

TATA the large Indian Industrial House is likely to take a 10% plus stake in GDY shortly at a $1.50 a share, with 1 for 2 option deal at $2.25 expires 28/2/09. Options issued with the GDY capital raising earlier this year, two or three months back, with the same expire date were $2.00, they're trading reasonably steady at around two bob. To be sure plenty of options expire worthless, and this initial stake in GDY is a fly spec on TATA's balance sheet. For all I know the seat on the board might only be an excuse for a regular tax deductible holiday down under. For those of you who've never had dealings with Indian business operators They seldom actively try to lose money. A 75% rise in the price of this stock in the next 6 months to give these options any value though, does seem optimistic.
So who's most likely to be supplying GDY's future 50MW modules? and there's a few hundred k's of HV transmission line to thread Gunga Din, so it looks like, on with the pithies and it's west into the womerra cush and don't spare the camels....G&T olde boy what!

 

[StatsMan]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Hi all,
I'm a GDY shareholder and like the whole notion of hotrocks power generation. I recently did some reading about some of GDYs competitors, one of whom is Petratherm (PTR). From what I read, PTR are trying to do similar things, but are targeting shallow hot rocks that lie above the deeper, hotter granites. The idea is that this saves money because they don't have to drill so deep and don't go through so many drill bits etc. However, I found the story a little hard to follow, because these shallow hot rocks that PTR are interested in only have temperatures of like 60 degrees or 80 degrees... much lower than the 200-220 degrees that GDY is targeting. Now, PTR is quoting the temperature of the rocks, but also the thermal gradient (e.g. 180 degrees per km) as if this is the key to their energy generation. What I don't understand is how they will be able to generate power from 60 degree rocks? This won't generate steam. Are they planning to use some other method of power generation (i.e. by using air or something in conjunction with the thermal gradient)? How likely is this approach to succeed and will it hamper investment into GDYs much needed infrastructure to link them to the national grid?

 

[renim]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

i know nothing about about PTR, but 80c water would be worthless for electricity (maybe useful for pasteurising milk however). Thermal gradient is important and if they have 180degree per km, then a 4 km hole would be 520degree, that is hotter than GDY. I doubt they are at a 180degree per km gradient.

 

[StatsMan]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

i know nothing about about PTR, but 80c water would be worthless for electricity (maybe useful for pasteurising milk however). Thermal gradient is important and if they have 180degree per km, then a 4 km hole would be 520degree, that is hotter than GDY. I doubt they are at a 180degree per km gradient.

sorry, you're right.. PTR are reporting results more like 80 degrees C per km. However, they don't seem to be interested in drilling to depths of 4km to hit the 220 degree rocks, but more interested in maximizing the thermal gradient whilst minimizing the drilling depth required. Not sure what method they have up their sleeve for generating the actual electricity though, when they are only targeting 60 or 80 degree rocks...

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Could be a two step process, heat water to near boiling then add the last bit of energy to get steam pressure. If you are generating steam underground I'd imagine you'd run into all sorts of issues regarding sealing the 'pipework'. Handling hot water would have to be easier than handling steam which is traveling through rocks. I'm no expert, just my thoughts. I have to do some research into this hot rock stuff, sounds interesting, we are siting on one hell of a big heater after all.

 

[smallfry]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

There are definite advantages of 80 degree H2O if you use it to preheat water for use in conventional power stations. ie it takes less coal/gas etc to boil water if its already at 80 degrees, and also less CO2 emissions, which in itself has value.

They are also involved in geothermal heating for building complexes (currently exploring and developing a project in Madrid - Spain) where 80 degrees is fine to provide cheap/green heating for domestic use.

Check out the company web page for their recent announcements in regards to that project.

 

[renim]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

80degree water may be useful for space heating in a cold country, but is close to useless in oz. if 80degree was so useful in aus, well there is plenty of coolant water making waste vapor in australian power station, thats what the big fat 'chimney's are for.

unless you using unconventional power cycles, a significantly higher value than 100degrees is required. but an 80degree gradient is decent for power, 4 kms of that is 320degrees and that is very good. As far as porosity goes, it is a necessity for this type of thing, and GDY's porosity is very good.

 

[BIG BWACULL]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Geodynamics owns the global rights to the kalina cycle (and unsure but petratherm may also have access to this cycle)

The Kalina cycle is a thermodynamic cycle for converting thermal energy to mechanical power, optimized for use with thermal sources which are at a relatively low temperature compared to the heat sink (or ambient) temperature. The cycle uses a working fluid comprised of at least two different components (typically water and ammonia) and a ratio between those components is varied in different parts of the system to increase thermodynamic reversibility and therefore increase overall thermodynamic efficiency. There are multiple variants of Kalina cycle systems specifically applicable for different types of heat sources. Several proof of concept power plants using the Kalina cycle have been built.

The Kalina cycle was invented by the Russian engineer Aleksandr Kalina.

Maybe this technique will be used for petratherms shallow drillings :dunno: