RNE - ReNu Energy

[So_Cynical]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I am currently looking in investing into the geothermal industry and have
started looking at GDY only recently.

I have a few questions for those who know more than me

1. I terms of geothermal energy, when would you be expecting a fairly
large increase in both production and use Australia?

2. At what price would you recommend to invest in GDY?

3. How much growth would you expect in the next few years or so? Next decade? and by 2020?

1. GDY should be the first producer and will prob end up in a industry
leading position...alternative power wont take off until after labor win the election and deliver
100% on the promises. RE: Kyoto.

2. no idea....GRK PTR GHT look to be better value.

3. If (some would say when) the technology is proven and Australia
ratifies the Kyoto treaty etc then the growth should explode...just keep
in mind that theres only so many "hot rocks" out there.

I'm watching, not holding any above mentioned.

 

[ta2693]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

11-09-07 Healy, Robert Anthony 5.46 8.36 6,000,000
I am very happy to see them again in GDY.
They are pretty smart investor and appear in early stage of PDN, ELK.
I put a small money in GDY aimed for long term capital growth.

 

[ta2693]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

The trading behavior of gdy is very suspicious and I think pro are accumulating.
It is hold very well in today's bear market. tomorrow it may run a little bit harder.

 

[robert toms]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Not GDY but look at petratherm today PTR I think...a $50 million donation from the Coalition govt to enable their hot rocks site in the Flinders Ranges...I would like to follow the political donation trail with this one...well connected I believe.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Ive been watching petratherm falling for the last few weeks and looks like i missed the entry...nice 11% rise today.

 

[Garrick]

GDY not full of hot air

With the new Labor Govn't, and buzz words like global warming, cabon emissions & the Kyoto protocol I don't see GDY as going anywhere but UP.
Origin Energy have just bought in with a 30% stake of the South Aust holdings. Pretty sure Santos has about 5 to 8% stake. I sit up and listen when the 'Big Boys' start to buy in.
One of the long term claims is that GDY will be able to provide 15 times as much power as the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme.
The water used in their process of getting heat from hot fractured rocks deep beneath (4000 to 5000 metres) is fully recirculated.
For alternative power generation this stock seems to meet all the long term environmentally friendly requirements. ie base load power (24/7), no carbon emissions, reserves to last at least 50 years, competetive cost with coal & gas (especially if carbon tax is applied in the future) and no wastage of water.

The only down fall that I can see is that the company is in a very early stage of development, the deep holes required cost a lot and power transmission lines are req'd. They have already done some tests and the heat transfer technology seems to work.

I'm seriously thinking of buying in BIG. Does anyone have good/bad views on this stock ???

I currently have a small holding in GDY. ie < 1000 shares

 

[shaunm]

Re: GDY not full of hot air

Yeah these guys are definitely on my watch list. The issue is the distance from main centres but the cost factor will probably lower as energy prices rise and Governments start contributing.

 

[travwj]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Good news for GDY holders...Habanero 3 well has been completed and the drill rig is being moved to a new location for a new well to be drilled. SP did jump a little with the news.

Trav

 

[Kelpie]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Does anyone want to have a stab as to the sudden drop in SP today? The only news (after lunch and after the SP started falling) was not bad really news ........

 

[travwj]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Would liketo know why the price dropped as well. The news was mainly positive. They have had a little delays, but are ahead of schedule for the new well....other than that i have no idea why there would be such a big drop in one day.

Any info would be great.

Trav

 

[YChromozome]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I would say it has to do with one of the R words - if that is Recession or Risk.

Geodynamic's is a potentially risky stock, and with more confirmation that the world is falling into a global recession means it is more likely investors will convert GDY into cash.

 

[peteai]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I just hope that there is not more to the SP drop than sentiment.
Maybe when the bears are out neutral news is good enough reason to sell.
When the market is optimistic this same news would probably cause a jump in SP.

If the world and Aus gets serious about reducing CO2 (which is likely) and
GDY gets the concept working (I can only guess this probabilty) the current SP will look extremely cheap given it is :

BASE LOAD
NO EMISSIONS
CHEAP

To me that means it would be clearly the best of all energy sources.
EG I don't see clean coal being ready for a long time.
And GDY will be ready to deliver just about the time I think Aus will start really doing something about climate change.

I welcome any opinions on this.

_____________
PETEAI

 

[Kelpie]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Thanks for the response peteai. From a T/A point of view, seems fairly volatile.... will we see a further drop to the ~1.20 mark again?

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

I just hope that there is not more to the SP drop than sentiment.
Maybe when the bears are out neutral news is good enough reason to sell.
When the market is optimistic this same news would probably cause a jump in SP.

If the world and Aus gets serious about reducing CO2 (which is likely) and
GDY gets the concept working (I can only guess this probabilty) the current SP will look extremely cheap given it is :

BASE LOAD
NO EMISSIONS
CHEAP

To me that means it would be clearly the best of all energy sources.
EG I don't see clean coal being ready for a long time.
And GDY will be ready to deliver just about the time I think Aus will start really doing something about climate change.

I welcome any opinions on this.

_____________
PETEAI

From the technical (electricity not share price) perspective:

1. Geothermal is at least as flexible in operation as a coal or nuclear plant. It can be dispatched just like any fossil fuel plant, has mechanical intertia etc so is very "good" as far as grid operation is concerned. Since there's no minimum boiler feed to worry about, it should actually be more flexible than coal or nuclear - so it's suited to intermediate as well as base load.

2. Other than hydro, it is the only non-fossil or nuclear technology which can deliver baseload generation without the use of external storage (which is prohibitively expensive). And the geothermal resource on mainland Australia is a lot larger than the untapped hydro resource.

3. The BHP mine expansion in SA means that SA needs additional generating capacity. Only about one third of SA's current generating capacity is well suited for baseload application - so it makes sense for any new plant to be high capital cost / low running cost given that the mine will operate 24/7.

4. Other than nuclear or successful carbon capture from coal, it is the only realistic means by which total generation can be increased whilst reducing total emissions over the long term.

5. The BIG downside is the location. Cooper Basin is the middle of nowhere as far as the grid is concerned. And transmission over that distance will mean a significant energy loss and likely the use of very high transmission voltages (possibly double that of any other line in Australia). That won't be cheap.

6. Timing is significant too. I like their plan for a real (500 MW) power station. That's about a quarter the size of a coal-fired plant - it won't run the whole country by any means but it's a "real" power station and not simply a trivial source of generation. With the BHP mine expansion and looking at the overall situation, feeding 1000 - 1500 MW into SA 10 years from now would be quite workable in that the market is there. Beyond that it will need to be sent somewhere else - into Qld, NSW, Vic.

7. My general thinking is that this is probably a goer. If it is, then if properly managed it will be for Australia in the 21st century what brown coal and hydro were for Vic and Tas in the 20th century - the absolute engine of industry and economic growth.

8. Biggest risk I can see is that CO2 targets are abandoned. I wouldn't rule that out - the temp globally is claimed to have ceased warming about a decade ago and the issue may well be forgotten if the credit crunch ends in a major recession / depression.

 

[Bruza]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

The reason GDY have put most of their resources to work in the Cooper Basin is, that's where the hottest fractured granites are, they have other tenements elsewhere.

Others may go to allot of cost to find out their granites won't produce enough heat to run their turbines.

Transmission line costs will be approx 1$M/K or $500m to the grid at Olympic Dam, this cost will probably be heavily subsidized, or even paid for by State &/or Fed Gov's once "proof of concept" has materialised. They are desperate for power (Base Load) in SA, if they can get emission free it will far override the cost of transmission.

Energy loss in transmission to Adelaide is only 5%.

500 MW is the goal by 2016 (and this could be fastracked). Output will reach 10,000 MW, there's discussions of Co's taking their refining etc. to this emission free power.

Carbon capture from coal or so called "clean coal" have a significant amount of emissions before you utilize the final product for power. IMHO.

Disclosure; have a small holding of GDY.

 

[peteai]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

The reason GDY have put most of their resources to work in the Cooper Basin is, that's where the hottest fractured granites are, they have other tenements elsewhere.

Others may go to allot of cost to find out their granites won't produce enough heat to run their turbines.

Transmission line costs will be approx 1$M/K or $500m to the grid at Olympic Dam, this cost will probably be heavily subsidized, or even paid for by State &/or Fed Gov's once "proof of concept" has materialised. They are desperate for power (Base Load) in SA, if they can get emission free it will far override the cost of transmission.

Energy loss in transmission to Adelaide is only 5%.

500 MW is the goal by 2016 (and this could be fastracked). Output will reach 10,000 MW, there's discussions of Co's taking their refining etc. to this emission free power.

Carbon capture from coal or so called "clean coal" have a significant amount of emissions before you utilize the final product for power. IMHO.

Disclosure; have a small holding of GDY.

Hi Bruza,

It has also been said that every 20 degrees less temp is 20% less power. So even if a site was found close to Olympic Dam if it were just 20 degrees cooler this would wipe out the economic advantage of less spent on power lines. May be BHP should fund some of GDY expenses to speed up the process inreturn for some equity. That way BHP gets a clean power source which is good PR and GDY gets a guaranteed customer.

Disclosure; I recently bought some GDY

Cheers,
PETEAI

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Can't fault any of that. But if it does go to 10,000 MW then we're talking about transmission lines almost to the coast of NSW. That won't be cheap and is an issue if there's a competing energy source requiring less transmission.

I'd be surprised if they don't get to 1000 MW into SA. 10,000 MW into SA plus NSW and Qld or Vic is more difficult however.

 

[Bruza]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Hi Smurf & peteai,

I have heard that Gdy doesn't want any special deals from Co's (even if it is BHP), they just want to be competitive with other providers.

Something to consider re use of (cheap) MW's:

Aluminum smelters; they are in places in the world where the is cheap power (hydro),they use allot of Mw's to run.

A smelter was to be built West of Rockhampton almost next to Stanwell power station, they spent lot's on feasibility, and even started earthworks and foundations I believe, only to pull out, and you can bet the reason being is the ultimate cost of power with Climate Change etc.

As I mentioned in above post, I believe industry will seek out this power for processing their raw materials. The glory is to produce the final product here in Oz.
How does ETS's work by sending raw materials to China =(emissions), processing there =(emissions) then transporting back, or to wherever, yet more emissions?

Olympic Dam is going to have a huge expansion (they already use about 1000Mw).

IMHO.

PS going down there on Saturday for a short stint, may have some more insight after. It will be a shame to be so close to GDY site and not be able to get there (this time).

 

[peteai]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Hi Smurf & peteai,

I have heard that Gdy doesn't want any special deals from Co's (even if it is BHP), they just want to be competitive with other providers.

Something to consider re use of (cheap) MW's:

Aluminum smelters; they are in places in the world where the is cheap power (hydro),they use allot of Mw's to run.

A smelter was to be built West of Rockhampton almost next to Stanwell power station, they spent lot's on feasibility, and even started earthworks and foundations I believe, only to pull out, and you can bet the reason being is the ultimate cost of power with Climate Change etc.

As I mentioned in above post, I believe industry will seek out this power for processing their raw materials. The glory is to produce the final product here in Oz.
How does ETS's work by sending raw materials to China =(emissions), processing there =(emissions) then transporting back, or to wherever, yet more emissions?

Olympic Dam is going to have a huge expansion (they already use about 1000Mw).

IMHO.

PS going down there on Saturday for a short stint, may have some more insight after. It will be a shame to be so close to GDY site and not be able to get there (this time).

Hi Bruza,

I am not sure what type of deals they rule out, but they are going to need a lot of cash to develop power stations, power lines etc I don't think they will be able to pay for it all and banks are not in the mood to lend lots of cash without a guaranteed return. As for BHP they need power but now with carbon trading it very uncertain what power source will be viable (given carbon costs). What if BHP ties up with another power source and GDY has no one who needs their power and banks or government not willing to take the risk in building the power lines. IMO GDY will have to deals when opportunities arise - otherwise it might get caught one day 'needing' a deal.

You made very interesting points about cheap power. Hope you get to see the GDY set up some day - maybe its like the moon landing myth i.e all done in a studio

Cheers,
Peteai

 

[mshepherd]

Re: GDY - Geodynamics Limited

Does anyone have any opinions/advice as to whether the current GDY Share-Purchase-Plan is a worth taking up for someone with a tight risk-allowance?

- $1.50 (max 3333 shares),
- Includes 1 option for every 2 shares bought, for free, valued at $2 in about Feb 2009
- Current price is ~ $1.75
- looks like some solid support at around $1.5
- recently had a break-out of trend to the upside.
- company looks like it has quite alot going for it this year.

Any down side risks I should be concerned about?