Resisting Climate Hysteria

[IFocus]

There's a known drying trend in SW WA that's no secret and has been subject to considerable research.

There was never a scientifically based reason to claim the same was happening in Sydney however, that's the point there. Reasons based on politics and so on yes but not science.

That's the trouble with all this. There's real science and real reason to be concerned about some things but various others have jumped on the bandwagon for reasons of being a convenient means to achieve some other objective.

Hasn't Victoria got the same problem built a decel plant but never used?

 

[sptrawler]

It was this that got my attention "precise science." climate science is anything but precise and given that it's extremely variable across the globe, the reasons for Sydney's dams being full or overflowing is actually in part due to climate change as you don't follow surfing forecasting I'll let you off for that one

You have more moves than a Swiss watch.

 

[Smurf1976]

Hasn't Victoria got the same problem built a decel plant but never used?

The exact dates vary but circa 2008 (give or take) most states managed to get into a panic and built or bought something in response to the drought at the time. Some were more useful than others.

Victoria has a big desal plant that not only sits idle but which has some extremely tight contractual arrangements around its use that compromise its operation anyway.

Meanwhile Victoria's largest reservoir, Thomson, has never been completed. In short they built the dam but never diverted the water into it. So it fills slowly but it could be filled far more rapidly, capturing more runoff, and that would've been a much cheaper option that also doesn't involve the ongoing running costs of desal.

For those wondering what's inside, here's the Adelaide Desalination Plant. What you're looking at is basically a lot of individual pressure vessels with the reverse osmosis membrane inside. The rest's just basic pumps, pipes, tanks etc:

Cross section of membrane (sample piece on display in foyer, not in use):

Photos taken by me.

 

[Sean K]

On another interesting note (at least it was for me) the sea level at Perth has actually risen higher than other areas (albeit small) because we have pumped the groundwater supplies so hard as it hasn't replenished.

Sea levels and temperatures seem to be rising higher than other areas almost everywhere.

 

[Sean K]

WA water corporation

Perth Streamflow | Current & Annual Statistics - Water Corporation WA

View current & historical streamflow data and learn about the impact climate change has had on streamflow into our dams

www.watercorporation.com.au

I actually thought that south west Australia was getting greener which was caused by warmer weather and more rain. That was from NASA data a while ago. Maybe it's still greener even though there's less rainfall? Or, is there the same rainfall but the water is being diverted for growing agriculture, population and mining before it hits the dams? It's probably a complicated dynamic but a rainfall graph would be interesting, not just the stream flow. I can't find one.

 

[IFocus]

I actually thought that south west Australia was getting greener which was caused by warmer weather and more rain. That was from NASA data a while ago. Maybe it's still greener even though there's less rainfall? Or, is there the same rainfall but the water is being diverted for growing agriculture, population and mining before it hits the dams? It's probably a complicated dynamic but a rainfall graph would be interesting, not just the stream flow. I can't find one.

Rainfall has dropped for the SW corner over all but not to the same extent as stream flow.

There are no longer outlier years of high rainfall.

Higher temps have led to dryer topsoil and dying bush this year bush was dying in swamp areas along the freeway, now common to see healthy trees dying at summer's end.

My family stopped burning off their blocks of land a good 20 years ago as the risks became to high they are totally absolute conservatives but accepted climate change decades ago.

Currently the earth has reached an increase of 1.5 degrees C, if this is an outlier then action may still count, if it's the new normal and a trend then we are to say bluntly "fu(ked".

The only delay ironically will be in areas around ice melt as the colder water feeds into the oceans which intern will affect those areas weather delaying the elevatable.

Its like the environment there is no good news unfortunately.

 

[mullokintyre]

Back in June 1st, the ABC Reported on how the BOM were tipping a warmer and drier winter this year.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts parched conditions across virtually all of Australia this winter as a double whammy of drought-linked climate drivers brew in waters to the west and east.

Instead of the familiar blues and greens of recent years, BOM's rainfall outlook from June to August is coloured in a slate of orange and brown.

It indicates the high likelihood of below-average rainfall across the country.

And it does not stop there.

Large swathes of southern Australia also have triple to quadruple the chance of "unusually dry" conditions – which means the bottom 20 per cent of historical records.

A month later, everything changed.
From ABC News of July 6th

The development of the first rainband over the interior coincides with an update of Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) seasonal forecasts, which now tip a wetter than normal winter and spring across most of Australia.

The rising prospects of a wet 2024 continue the recovery from the short, sharp El Niño-induced drought during the corresponding period last year.
However, extreme 12-month rainfall deficits persist through Tasmania and southern parts of South Australia, WA and Victoria.

This week's rain could be the start of a wetter-than-normal few months for much of Australia, the opposite pattern from 2023 that included the nation's driest August to October on record.

The latest seasonal forecasts from the bureau indicate for the August to October quarter, most of central and eastern Australia is likely to receive above-median rain, with the odds as high as 80 per cent across pockets of western Queensland.

The prospects of a wetter or drier three months have near-even odds for much of WA, while only south-west TAS and the far northern coast of the mainland are likely to be drier than normal.

So in a month, the forecast went 180 degrees.
Just makes it somewhat difficult to have much confidence in their forecasts.
In our area, we would be more than happy with some of the rain they say is now forecast.

Mick

 

[IFocus]

La Niña Update​

Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis
Friday, 31 May 2024
TLDR:

• El Nino peaked late last year.
• We’re currently in a neutral ENSO state, trending towards La Nina.
• A tongue of cool water has appeared in the eastern Pacific Ocean, a key signature of a developing La Niña.
• Sea surface temperature observations in the critical Niño 3.4 monitoring region have dipped below 0°C, with further cooling expected over the coming months as stronger than normal trade-winds persist.
• La Niña is likely by spring, peaking later in the year.

Climate monitoring is a great lesson in patience.
The major drivers play out on weekly to seasonal timescales, sometimes interacting with each other, and it’s only afterwards that we start to see the downstream effects in the ocean and atmosphere.
This brings us to an update on the current transition in sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It’d be easy to forget that we recently had an El Niño. Arguably, it was overshadowed by the preceding La Nina ‘three-peat’ and it was also weakened by the weight of warm ocean water surrounding eastern Australia, yet it peaked late last year and has been weakening ever since. We’re now in a neutral phase.
Since El Nino’s peak, we’ve seen a steady release of surface heat across the Pacific Ocean. The catalyst for this was a relaxation of the westerly winds that drive El Niño - and in turn pile up warmer water (and also elevate sea levels) in the eastern Pacific.
Once these winds backed off, the warm, elevated water started to flow back to the west where sea levels were relatively lower. It’s a simple ‘conservation of energy’ situation.
This, in addition to recent bursts of strong easterly trade-winds, caused a pool of cold water to upwell in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This cold pool originated in the western Pacific Ocean late last year, with it making its way east, hidden below the surface during the last six months.
With the strong easterly trades as a driver, a tongue of cold water is now visible across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Not only is this tongue of cold water a downstream effect, as referenced earlier, it’s also the key signature of a developing La Niña event.
If it happens, it’ll be the fourth in five years.

Sea surface temperature anomaly chart for May 28th. Note the upwelling signal in the east. (NOAA)
The above explanation will satisfy most people, however the curious surfer might ask, ‘Well, what’s driving the stronger than normal easterly trade-winds?’
The answer to that - and it also includes the related westerly wind bursts - is the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO.
The MJO is the wave of tropical activity that circumnavigates the globe. When the MJO is in an active phase, it produces strong westerly winds within its vicinity (aiding cyclone formation), while at the same time, drawing in strong easterly trade-winds to the east.
This has been the case over the last week or so in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, thanks to an active MJO stalling in the region..
Surfers currently in the Maldives and Sri Lanka would be well aware of this stalling MJO signal with strong, blustery westerly winds ruining the surf across some breaks. It also spawned Severe Tropical Cyclone Remal in the Bay of Bengal over the weekend.
It’s this instability that’s driving the strong easterly winds over in the Pacific basin, promoting upwelling in the eastern regions.
The teleconnections at play here, spanning tens of thousands of kilometres between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, are astounding in scope. The world shrinks under their influence.

The yin and yang of the MJO (May 19-27). Stronger than normal west winds (red) depict the location of the active MJO, with stronger than normal east winds (purple) feeding in from the Pacific Ocean (NOAA)
It’s also these westerly winds that have likely killed off the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event for the coming season, preventing strong, upwelling south-east winds from developing. Surfers in Indonesia will be thankful for that.
Thanks to this active MJO signal, and the stronger than normal easterly trade-winds feeding into it, sea surface temperature observations in the all important Niño 3.4 monitoring region* have just dipped below the 0°C mark. They’re expected to keep cooling over the coming fortnight with another episode of strong easterly winds on the cards.
If it happens, this should push us further towards La Niña, with a peak due later in the year.
With the slow transition between El Niño to neutral over our autumn, it hasn’t influenced the East Coast’s swell regime as favourably as we’d have hoped, with relentless south swells but no meaningful easterly energy.
As the Pacific Ocean continues to transition through winter, high pressure looks to remain dominant across most of the country, with no clear swell signal in favour of more east energy visible for the East Coast, rather a continuation of southerly swells.
Over to the west, the Indian Ocean looks to provide plenty of mid-latitude storms and this points to westerly swells for South Australia and Victoria, though with favourable winds.
We’ll continue to monitor the cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean and evolution of the highly likely La Niña over the coming months.
//CRAIG BROKENSHA
*The Nino 3.4 region is an area in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean which best represents the state of ENSO (El Niño/La Niña or neutral). When the average of sea surface temperatures in the region are above a certain threshold, El Niño is declared, and when below a certain threshold, La Niña is declared.

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SproutFriday, 31 May 2024 at 7:03pm
So the MJO screwed us out of a dry El Nino (SEQLD), can the reverse happen and we get a drier than normal La Nina? 4 years of rain, ergh. Or do we need a positive VRH to get good weather back?
(Viccos Returning Home)

La Niña Update | Swellnet Analysis | Swellnet

www.swellnet.com

 

[wayneL]

Everything, and I mean everything the alarmists claim turns out to be wrong, including about cow farts.

 

[farmerge]

Everything, and I mean everything the alarmists claim turns out to be wrong, including about cow farts.

You know what Wayne, in all the years that I have cattle never heard one fart, but horses well all the time.

 

[moXJO]

Everything, and I mean everything the alarmists claim turns out to be wrong, including about cow farts.

Is it any surprise?
Majority of the rubbish came from big investors.

 

[Sean K]

Is it any surprise?
Majority of the rubbish came from big investors.

And maybe vegetarians.

 

[Smurf1976]

With the strong easterly trades as a driver, a tongue of cold water is now visible across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Not only is this tongue of cold water a downstream effect, as referenced earlier, it’s also the key signature of a developing La Niña event.
If it happens, it’ll be the fourth in five years.

This is where the hysteria goes wrong.

What happened to the ever increasing frequency of El Nino events that was supposed to happen?

There's climate change yes but there's also been a lot of nonsense spread about it.

 

[IFocus]

This is where the hysteria goes wrong.

What happened to the ever increasing frequency of El Nino events that was supposed to happen?

There's climate change yes but there's also been a lot of nonsense spread about it.

If you look at Craigs report its just a snapshot looking to the future as things (many things) develop there is no black and white, climate change is variable the only constant at the moment is the temperature rise trend which is some thing that should be causing hysteria hopefully it an anomaly, god help us if its not.

 

[Smurf1976]

If you look at Craigs report its just a snapshot looking to the future as things (many things) develop there is no black and white, climate change is variable the only constant at the moment is the temperature rise trend which is some thing that should be causing hysteria hopefully it an anomaly, god help us if its not.

Mid-late in the 00's decade it was widely claimed that climate change was already causing El Nino to become the norm and La Nina's to disappear.

Now I'm not blind to the reason why. The (privately owned) desalination proponents in the major states with the the proponent of a privately owned gas-fired power station in Tasmania were pushing hard at the time and saying it might never rain again suited their objectives nicely.

Now one doesn't need to be a detective to smell a rat there. Follow the money.

My point's about hysteria / politics / media not science which is very different.

 

[IFocus]

Mid-late in the 00's decade it was widely claimed that climate change was already causing El Nino to become the norm and La Nina's to disappear.

Now I'm not blind to the reason why. The (privately owned) desalination proponents in the major states with the the proponent of a privately owned gas-fired power station in Tasmania were pushing hard at the time and saying it might never rain again suited their objectives nicely.

Now one doesn't need to be a detective to smell a rat there. Follow the money.

My point's about hysteria / politics / media not science which is very different.

Possibly the drought conditions that led to all those decel plants been built was extensive nothing to say this wet period on the east coast wont revert not sure it's understood longer term what the systems will do or where the tipping points are.

Still huge waste of money in hindsight.

 

[Sean K]

Anyone know why this project, which will cover millions of acres of land in the NT, is OK but an underground uranium mine is unacceptable and must be turned into a NP? I have been to Jabiluka and it's sort of nice but pretty much uninhabitable.

Are there some politics being played in regard to resource exploitation, wealth creation, sustainability and the green dream?

How often do these toxic mirrors need to be replaced?

SunCable, owned by billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes, will spend the next two years prioritising agreements with Indigenous land owners as it moves to accelerate development of the world’s largest solar farm.

The project is one of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy projects, which, should it come to fruition, will deliver cheap energy to the NT and potentially Singapore.

SunCable on Tuesday secured approvals from the federal environment minister Tanya Plibersek, albeit with strict conditions to protect nature including requirements to “completely avoid important species” such as the greater bilby and critical habitat.

The 12,000-hectare solar farm project is on a pastoral station between Elliott and Tennant Creek.

 

[Sean K]

It's all shallow politics and needs to be resisted.

This is, by the bye, my extension of the old-fashioned everyday ‘red tape’, that always hindered – and indeed hinders, present and future tense - if not outright crippled/cripples entrepreneurial and just ordinary business and especially small business activity.

‘Green tape’ – the use of mostly spurious environmental objections, including the most spurious of all: ‘climate change’.

It’s really a wonder that anything gets done or even started in Australia in this 21st century.

If the normal red tape won’t strangle you at birth, the green tape will be lurking out there, available to the activist, to do the job instead.

Now Plibersek claims that she hasn’t banned the mine near Blayney in NSW. All she’s done is to make it unviable by depriving it of an effective tailings dam. By accepting the ‘advice’ of a fringe group over the representative Land Council.

 

[farmerge]

It's all shallow politics and needs to be resisted.

View attachment 182947

This is, by the bye, my extension of the old-fashioned everyday ‘red tape’, that always hindered – and indeed hinders, present and future tense - if not outright crippled/cripples entrepreneurial and just ordinary business and especially small business activity.

‘Green tape’ – the use of mostly spurious environmental objections, including the most spurious of all: ‘climate change’.

It’s really a wonder that anything gets done or even started in Australia in this 21st century.

If the normal red tape won’t strangle you at birth, the green tape will be lurking out there, available to the activist, to do the job instead.

Now Plibersek claims that she hasn’t banned the mine near Blayney in NSW. All she’s done is to make it unviable by depriving it of an effective tailings dam. By accepting the ‘advice’ of a fringe group over the representative Land Council.

And once the outstretched hand/s have been gilded with massive amounts of gold, then all the objections will magically disappear.

 

[Smurf1976]

Are there some politics being played in regard to resource exploitation, wealth creation, sustainability and the green dream?

Nothing new about this trick.

Sacrifice a big project in a small regional area to buy votes in the inner city.

Wesley Vale was a pretty clear cut example and that was 35 years ago now. All that fuss about dioxin, conveniently ignoring that (1) identified dioxin sources in metropolitan Sydney were more than 100 times higher than would've been produced by this project in Tasmania and (2) it would've reduced pollution in Tas by replacing a much older facility. Also conveniently ignored were sources an order of magnitude higher within Tasmania strangely enough.

All about votes in the big cities. Nothing more, nothing less. All that's changed is the projects and the location of them but it's the same old trick. Sacrifice some major project in a small area that most have never been to in order to appease those living in the inner metropolitan area of the big cities who know nothing about it other than what activists have told them via the media.

It's exactly what's fuelled the divide in Australia as can be clearly seen looking at the results of recent elections. The divide which, perhaps ironically, has made real progress on the environment nigh on impossible. If it wasn't for that divide and distrust, it'd be a lot easier to reconcile all this and get everyone on the same page to actually do something about environmental problems.

Politically and economically, it's another thing that's all very much like circa the tail end of the 1980's. To the extent Albanese is Hawke-like, Pilbersek is his Keating, one of the few politicians who isn't a party leader to achieve household name status and make major decisions. Likely it will end much the same way.

History's not quite repeating but it sure seems to be rhyming.

Now if politicians really cared about climate as an issue well they wouldn't be using it as a political tool and in doing so making real progress ever more difficult. For that I blame all of them from one end of the spectrum to the other, they're all playing games.