Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Investoradam]

Humans were never part of the equation.
I guess that's an issue which is beyond you.

given you you never answer the question directly and only dance around it in an attempt to preach the self mortal high ground!
its ironic your comment

so stating the question is beyond some ones capabilities your post is very ironic

 

[rederob]

given you you never answer the question directly and only dance around it in an attempt to preach the self mortal high ground!
its ironic your comment

so stating the question is beyond some ones capabilities your post is very ironic

I am better than most in answering questions at ASF, and providing substantiation.
However so few of your posts are intelligible that your capacity to reason is questionable. For example, how are non-AGW events from the prehistoric past relevant to present climate concerns?

 

[mullokintyre]

have not heard any warnings from the BOM etc, but I am going to have a stab at the liklihood of a Cyclone forming in the Cora Sea below the Solomons late Sunday or early Monday next week.
The forecast is for the low to creep under 1000 HP, which usually means a cyclone if the waters are warm enough.
At least a 60% chance by my reckoning.

Mick

 

[rederob]

have not heard any warnings from the BOM etc, but I am going to have a stab at the liklihood of a Cyclone forming in the Cora Sea below the Solomons late Sunday or early Monday next week.
The forecast is for the low to creep under 1000 HP, which usually means a cyclone if the waters are warm enough.
At least a 60% chance by my reckoning.

MickView attachment 133978

FYI weather is not climate.
Maybe post here instead.
Or open a new thread on weather forecasting?

 

[Joules MM1]

DYOR opinion-sphere: "..here's the shocker, they arent always accurate"

 

[explod]

More than 70 killed as series of deadly tornadoes smash several US states

thenewdaily.com.au

More than 70 people killed as series of deadly tornadoes smash several US states​

 

[wayneL]

More than 70 killed as series of deadly tornadoes smash several US states

thenewdaily.com.au

More than 70 people killed as series of deadly tornadoes smash several US states​

Weather.

 

[bellenuit]

Weather.

W=f(C)

 

[mullokintyre]

have not heard any warnings from the BOM etc, but I am going to have a stab at the liklihood of a Cyclone forming in the Cora Sea below the Solomons late Sunday or early Monday next week.
The forecast is for the low to creep under 1000 HP, which usually means a cyclone if the waters are warm enough.
At least a 60% chance by my reckoning.

MickView attachment 133978

Cyclone Ruby came and went without a mention.
Made it to cat 3, and battered the western side of New Cal, but no loss of life fortunately.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I thought the Chinese charade might have lasted a little longer.
The ink is barely dry on the COP agreement, and already China is suggesting that they are not real targets.
From South China Morning Post

Serving and former Chinese senior officials have urged caution on the path towards carbon neutrality, echoing the leadership’s assessment that climate targets “can’t be achieved in just one battle”.
Addressing a forum in Beijing on Saturday, former finance minister Lou Jiwei said that while China had said it would “strive to” reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, there was a difference between this and “ensuring [those targets would be achieved]”.
“We are a developing country. We should bear common but differentiated responsibilities that are different from developed countries,” Lou told the gathering organised by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges.
Han Wenxiu, from the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, was similarly cautious, saying the two targets were complex and long-term tasks that required full consideration of the country’s energy and industrial structure.

“[The carbon targets] should not affect the country’s overall economic and social development,” Han said.

A developing country is China.
Hope they don't expect Oz to pitch in a few billion to "help" this developing country as it "strives to" reach peak carbon emissions. No word on actaully reducing them, but hey thats diplomacy for ya.
Mick

 

[Joules MM1]

youre interactive and so is this !

Rising From the Antarctic, a Climate Alarm (Published 2021)

Wilder winds are altering crucial currents. The sea is releasing ancient carbon dioxide. Vast ice shelves are melting from below. See why the experts are increasingly alarmed.

www.nytimes.com

*not peer-reviewed material

 

[Sean K]

I thought the Chinese charade might have lasted a little longer.
The ink is barely dry on the COP agreement, and already China is suggesting that they are not real targets.
From South China Morning Post

A developing country is China.
Hope they don't expect Oz to pitch in a few billion to "help" this developing country as it "strives to" reach peak carbon emissions. No word on actaully reducing them, but hey thats diplomacy for ya.
Mick

China and Indian demand is still there and even though they are taking up more renewables, coal is going to be more than 30% of the energy mix in Asia for some time. Global net zero by 2050 seems unachievable unless there's a dramatic change in Asia. If the CAGW activists are correct, then we're doomed.

 

[Sean K]

I'm an avid diver so the health of the reef has been of major concern to me.

Recent reports seem to indicate it's recovering and in pretty good shape.

Reef in recovery window after decade of disturbances | AIMS

After a year’s reprieve, with no major pressures from heat stress or cyclones, widespread recovery on the GBR is underway.

www.aims.gov.au

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/11/24/australia-great-barrier-reef-coral-spawning/

Coral cover seems to be back around 1985 levels. Other reports are still saying it's in really bad shape, although these graphs are pretty clear. Not sure what it was like pre-1985.

Hopefully the reef continues to recover, or adapt, to the warmer water. The other consideration for the reef is that, if the Coral Sea is warming or effected by run-off from the coast, the reef starts to extend south, over time. Might have a barrier reef coming down to Victoria one day perhaps.

Doing a 7-day live aboard early next year so will post up some photos of the coral.

 

[mullokintyre]

Was talking to friends in Utah last night, and they were telling me how cold it was over Christmas.
It got down to the -5 F, or -20C in our language, in the higher regions where they lived, as i was telling them how we were having a pleasant 33 (or 91 in their language) at home in OZ.
They are farmers, and take a bit of interest in the weather and climate.
Bob sent me two articles , This one from MSN

As the climate continues to warm, more and more of the snow falling on California’s mountains will be replaced by rain. Already in recent decades, the snow season has shrunk by a month, according to one estimate, while snow levels have moved upward by 1,200 feet, according to another.
his snowless future, according to a new study led by researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, could arrive in California’s Sierra Nevada in as soon as 25 years. The study is among many to detail the decline in snow, but it’s unique in synthesizing decades of research to nail down exactly when the snow might be gone. And it offers a timeline that is alarmingly short.

“Warming just doesn’t allow for snow to persist,” said Alan Rhoades, a hydroclimate research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley Lab and one of the lead authors of the paper. “Our one major goal was to identify how much time we have to roll out adaption strategies.”

Experts say that preparing for a Sierra with less snow won’t be easy, or cheap, but they agree it must be done.

He also sent me this twitter post

NEW DECEMBER RECORD: 193.7" With a 24 hour official #snow total of 38.9" at the lab, we have smashed the previous record of 179" of snow in December set in 1970! Snow rates are still heavy and we could even break the 200" mark today!
So with two days to go before the end of December, the snowpack record from 1970 has already been smashed. with the possibility of getting ober 200 inches for December.

And this barely a month since the dire prediction of no snow in the Sierra Nevadas from the first article.
As I am sure someone will point out, its only one season, and its only weather rather than climate.
There were well above average falls in 2013 and 2019 when it was the 5th largest snowfall ever recorded.
There were also extremely low falls as in 2020.
On thwe bright side . Bob is pretty happy as it is the snowpack that provides the spring runoff that fills their dams and aquifiers.
Mick

 

[rederob]

As I am sure someone will point out, its only one season, and its only weather rather than climate.
There were well above average falls in 2013 and 2019 when it was the 5th largest snowfall ever recorded.
There were also extremely low falls as in 2020.

More precipitation is a byproduct of climate change and is little different to record flooding events in the northern hemisphere earlier this year.
On the other hand, so are record high temperatures, and these have been astonishing with Verkhoyansk in the Arctic hitting 38 degrees celsius this year, and last year Antarctic temperatures breaching 18 degrees.

 

[sptrawler]

China and Indian demand is still there and even though they are taking up more renewables, coal is going to be more than 30% of the energy mix in Asia for some time. Global net zero by 2050 seems unachievable unless there's a dramatic change in Asia. If the CAGW activists are correct, then we're doomed.

As you were saying @Sean K , it seems China is playing to its own song, while the rest of the World takes the birch branch to their backs.

China fires up giant coal power plant in face of calls for cuts

From the article:
A report published this month by researchers at China's State Grid Corporation said energy security concerns mean the country is likely to build as much as 150 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity over the 2021-2025 period, bringing the total to 1,230 GW.

 

[Sean K]

As you were saying @Sean K , it seems China is playing to its own song, while the rest of the World takes the birch branch to their backs.

China fires up giant coal power plant in face of calls for cuts

From the article:
A report published this month by researchers at China's State Grid Corporation said energy security concerns mean the country is likely to build as much as 150 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity over the 2021-2025 period, bringing the total to 1,230 GW.

In order to reduce coal it must mean a lot of old stations will be taken off in the coming years to offset the additional plants they are building. What sort of life span do these things have? 30 Years? So, if they stop building new one's by 2025 they'll still be consuming out to 2055, at least.

Energy security needs to be a priority for Australia in the coming years. Building some fuel storage capacity in Darwin and deals with the US is a tiny step, but if supply is cut off we still have less than 30 days till everything stops. None of our new armoured vehicles will get out the door. I don't think there's any future plans to put batteries in them.

 

[Smurf1976]

What sort of life span do these things have? 30 Years?

Normal lifespan assuming it's properly built it should be absolutely rock solid for 40 years of constant operation.

After that, problems start to emerge, reliability diminishes, and ultimately a point comes where for economic and practical reasons it's game over.

So as a generic answer it's 40 years hard running then a wind down over another 10 years or so during which time outages become more frequent and capacity will typically be de-rated 10 - 20%.

Example, Liddell power station in NSW. Original commissioning date 1971. Got a solid 40 years out of it apart from some trouble in the early 1980's which was ultimately due to a design flaw that took a while to become apparent but once that was resolved all was good. Over the past decade however capacity has been de-rated progressively, it's now limited to 84% of original design output, and the outage rate has steadily increased. Complete closure is to occur in two stages over the next 15 months.

That's a pretty typical life cycle scenario unless some major mishap or other circumstance kills it sooner.

 

[Sean K]

Normal lifespan assuming it's properly built it should be absolutely rock solid for 40 years of constant operation.

After that, problems start to emerge, reliability diminishes, and ultimately a point comes where for economic and practical reasons it's game over.

So as a generic answer it's 40 years hard running then a wind down over another 10 years or so during which time outages become more frequent and capacity will typically be de-rated 10 - 20%.

Example, Liddell power station in NSW. Original commissioning date 1971. Got a solid 40 years out of it apart from some trouble in the early 1980's which was ultimately due to a design flaw that took a while to become apparent but once that was resolved all was good. Over the past decade however capacity has been de-rated progressively, it's now limited to 84% of original design output, and the outage rate has steadily increased. Complete closure is to occur in two stages over the next 15 months.

That's a pretty typical life cycle scenario unless some major mishap or other circumstance kills it sooner.

Thanks Smurf. So, all the coal plants being built, and will be built over the next decade plus, have a 40 year plus lifespan. Something is missing in the absolute imperative to get to net zero by 2050. Can the planned off-sets meet that from what you know?

 

[Sean K]

Good piece from Shellenberger. Might be better in an 'Energy Security' thread.

Finally, Bloomberg Admits Renewables Mania Caused Energy Shortages

Plus, new Environmental Progress Analysis finds German emissions rose in 2021 and in will rise again in 2022

michaelshellenberger.substack.com