Resisting Climate Hysteria

Couldn't name one.

Knobby22 said:

Couldn't name one.

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You challenged me about my use of the phrase "A lot" and I replied accordingly.
If you wanted only one name, then how did you come to overlook the video, I posted a while back, featuring Dr Curry?

Interesting article noco, read it all and in essence the lack of sunspots creates higher radiation levels entering the atmosphere. No effect on heat, in fact this line from your (that same article) indicates just the opposite;

". Also, during years of lower sunspot number, the sun’s extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV) drops and the Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and contracts. "

Perhaps its time to read the articles you put up yourself instead of directing others to, and in such a scornful way too.


Of course the reality is that the earth is supposed to be cooling down anyway, 5 billion years back it was a burning gaseous fireball and has been cooling and solidifying since. But alas this cooling stopped when the industrial revolution began, driven by coal fired power and then motor cars.

But then I'm not going to convince the blind, move on plod. Interesting travelling along the South Morang line into Melbourne City the other day I realised that solar panels are starting to appear on roofs all over the place. Denmark hit a mark in history yesterday to announce that more than 50% of vehicles are now battery driven. And reports out everyday that solar wind combinations are not only reliable and continuous but becoming cheaper than coal.

So yes noco, as you say, this thread is now obsolete, climate change due to dirty co2 is accepted by the vast majority of people and your quotes are opposite in thrust to your intended assertions and therefore are in the realm of gobbledygook.

basilio said:

Well that all makes sense- in a Kaffasque type of way. According to the new evidence you have seen there is no global warming to worry about.

Thats great isn't it Wayne? It means we can go to sleep soundly at night and be assured that those heat waves, wild weather and droughts are just figments of our imagination that really arn't happening because there is now new evidence that global warming isn't happening.

I started this recent little flurry with the observation that summer ice in the Arctic reached its lowest level and appears almost certainly to be running down on an exponitial scale. To put it simply as more ice melts, the Arctic ocean absorbs far more summer heat which in turn will melt more ice.

These are the facts on the ground. There are a million other similar facts that indicate the earth is warming rapidly and will continue to do so. Coming up with some cherry picked, tricky set of numbers to "prove" otherwise just makes the proponents completely irrelevant to the debate.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

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Knobby22 said:

Looks like we might break another record for arctic melt.

View attachment 71159

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Really?!!

Over 4 years ago, we were assured by an expert that the arctic ice would be all gone by now!

So how could it possibly still be melting if it's already gone?!!

That stubborn arctic ice!!
How dare it defy the infallible climate prophecies of the esteemed climate priests!!!
I suppose the alarmists will also now have to give the arctic ice a low credibility rating, and accuse it of being out of touch with CC reality!!

This incident certainly has much to say about the hypocrisy embodied within the following accusatory posts:

basilio said:

Knobby I'm not so sure about this introduction of CC reality to such a cerebral (!!!) discussion. After all what's the point of showing just how quickly our world is melting when Cynic and co are absolutely certain it isn't real.

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SirRumpole said:

The graph looks like a pretty accurate representation of Cynic & noco's credibility levels on AGW.

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explod said:

Interesting article noco, read it all and in essence the lack of sunspots creates higher radiation levels entering the atmosphere. No effect on heat, in fact this line from your (that same article) indicates just the opposite;

". Also, during years of lower sunspot number, the sun’s extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV) drops and the Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and contracts. "

Perhaps its time to read the articles you put up yourself instead of directing others to, and in such a scornful way too.


Of course the reality is that the earth is supposed to be cooling down anyway, 5 billion years back it was a burning gaseous fireball and has been cooling and solidifying since. But alas this cooling stopped when the industrial revolution began, driven by coal fired power and then motor cars.

But then I'm not going to convince the blind, move on plod. Interesting travelling along the South Morang line into Melbourne City the other day I realised that solar panels are starting to appear on roofs all over the place. Denmark hit a mark in history yesterday to announce that more than 50% of vehicles are now battery driven. And reports out everyday that solar wind combinations are not only reliable and continuous but becoming cheaper than coal.

So yes noco, as you say, this thread is now obsolete, climate change due to dirty co2 is accepted by the vast majority of people and your quotes are opposite in thrust to your intended assertions and therefore are in the realm of gobbledygook.

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Well that is the typical negative answer I would have expected from a member of the Socialist Green Party who has no understanding of the significance of the article......Instead you post some ridiculous statement to support your Green bible....Read again and you just might understand it.

What a real Science journal says about sunspots and global warming.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sun-spots-and-climate-change/

So Knobby throws up a graph which demonstrates how rapidly and exponentially Arctic ice is disappearing in summer. It is a particularly concerning phenomenon because the loss of Arctic ice is a very strong positive feedback mechanism in creating global warming. In simple terms sea ice reflects the warmth of the sun and protects the water below from getting warmer. When the ice is replaced by open water the summer suns warmth is directly transferred into the oceans. This warms the water which in turn quickens the further melting of ice.

It's clear that this process is advancing at a very rapid rate. And yet, And yet. Cynic response is that it hasn't all gone yet despite the fact that 4 years ago one Arctic researcher believed it would !

Is there any indication that this process is not going to continue ? Are any of the graphs, observations, temperature records pointing to a steady return of Arctic ice levels? Nuh. No way. It is all down hill. We just havn't hit the bottom yet.

What we have seen is evidence of how the change in the climate around the Arctic is now impacting on weather events around the world. These are the effects of global warming. The exact times and details of how our climate will change are still unknown.

Pretty much the same situation as careerning out of control down a ski slope and not knowing exactly what will happen when you hit something..

The Melting Arctic's Dramatic Impact on Global Weather Patterns
Monday, January 04, 2016 By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report

• 
  

(Photo: Melting Glacier via Shutterstock)

Arctic sea ice is melting at a record pace - and every summer looks grimmer. This past summer saw the ice pack at its fourth-lowest level on record, and the overall trend in recent decades suggests this will only continue.

"Using satellites, scientists have found that the area of sea ice coverage each September has declined by more than 40 percent since the late 1970s, a trend that has accelerated since 2007," according to the recent report "Arctic Matters: The Global Connection to Changes in the Arctic" by the National Research Council of the National Academies.

To see more stories like this, visit "Planet or Profit?"

The report added that by the end of each of the eight summers from 2007 to 2014, Arctic sea ice extent was over less area than at any time in the preceding three decades.

In addition to rapid melting of the sea and land ice in the Arctic, temperatures there are warming at least twice as fast as those of the rest of the planet - provoking other dramatic changes.

"Eventually we should see an Arctic Ocean ice free in summers as global temperatures continue to warm."
Massive wildfires on frozen ground, resulting from increasingly dry conditions caused by anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD), are becoming common; this phenomenon is unprecedented over at least the last 10,000 years.

These and other recent changes across the Arctic are making the weather and climate patterns there - and across the rest of the planet - more difficult to predict.

As Arctic Matters reports, "Changes in the Arctic have the potential to affect weather thousands of miles away. Because temperatures are increasing faster in the Arctic than at the tropics, the temperature gradient that drives the jet stream is becoming less intense."

This causes the jet stream to weaken and shift away from its typical patterns, which then leads to weather patterns becoming more persistent and lasting longer in the mid-latitudes. This then results in longer droughts, more intense heat waves, and far longer and deeper cold snaps, such as those witnessed in the Northeastern United States and Europe during the last two winters.

Truthout interviewed several leading scientists on these issues, seeking a consistent expectation for what the dramatic changes in the Arctic mean. The verdict? If there's one thing that all the scientists' predictions have in common, it is significant change

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/...-s-dramatic-impact-on-global-weather-patterns

SirRumpole said:

What a real Science journal says about sunspots and global warming.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sun-spots-and-climate-change/

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Your link has no date but talks about active Sun Spots.......My link is current where it indicates the lack of Sun spots over a designated period.
The sun is spotless again today which makes 6 days in a row and marks the 36th day this year – already more than all of 2016

Overview
Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year – already more spotless days than all of 2016. In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010, the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum – probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this can have many important consequences.


Comparison of all solar cycles since 1755 in terms of accumulated sunspot number anomalies from the mean value at this stage of the solar cycle. Plot courtesy publication cited below, authors Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt

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explod said:

Interesting article noco, read it all and in essence the lack of sunspots creates higher radiation levels entering the atmosphere. No effect on heat, in fact this line from your (that same article) indicates just the opposite;

". Also, during years of lower sunspot number, the sun’s extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV) drops and the Earth’s upper atmosphere cools and contracts. "

Perhaps its time to read the articles you put up yourself instead of directing others to, and in such a scornful way too.


Of course the reality is that the earth is supposed to be cooling down anyway, 5 billion years back it was a burning gaseous fireball and has been cooling and solidifying since. But alas this cooling stopped when the industrial revolution began, driven by coal fired power and then motor cars.

But then I'm not going to convince the blind, move on plod. Interesting travelling along the South Morang line into Melbourne City the other day I realised that solar panels are starting to appear on roofs all over the place. Denmark hit a mark in history yesterday to announce that more than 50% of vehicles are now battery driven. And reports out everyday that solar wind combinations are not only reliable and continuous but becoming cheaper than coal.

So yes noco, as you say, this thread is now obsolete, climate change due to dirty co2 is accepted by the vast majority of people and your quotes are opposite in thrust to your intended assertions and therefore are in the realm of gobbledygook.

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Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. Last day shown: 30 April 2017. (Graph courtesy climate4you.com)


Cosmic rays
One of the consequences of extended periods of low solar activity is that it can result in an increase in cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Simply put, as sunspot numbers decline, cosmic rays intensify. Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from space that impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Most of the incoming cosmic ray particles are protons and they actually arrive as individual particles – not in the form of a ray as the term “ray” would suggest. Usually, cosmic rays are held at bay by the sun’s magnetic field, which envelops and protects all the planets in the solar system. But the sun’s magnetic shield is weakening as the current solar cycle heads towards the next solar minimum and this allows more cosmic rays to reach the Earth’s atmosphere.

basilio said:

So Knobby throws up a graph...
...
It's clear that this process is advancing at a very rapid rate. And yet, And yet. Cynic response is that it hasn't all gone yet despite the fact that 4 years ago one Arctic researcher believed it would !
...

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Oh come now bas! It wasn't only the arctic researcher who chose to believe in that whopping great tale!!

Many alarmists happily subscribed to his fiction, including at least one ASF member (named basilio if memory serves) who chose to proudly post a link to the Guardian news article (which reported that prediction) in this very thread!

What part of reality are you denying now Cynic? The Arctic is melting at a rapid, exponential rate. The climate is already changing as a direct result of this situation. Are you saying it isn't ? Or are you saying because it is not going as fast as some researchers thought it might it doesn't matter ?
__________________________________
When one looks at the Arctic sea ice maps 2012 was a particularly disastrous year. I can see why researchers might have believed that if the rate of change continued at that pace there would be minimal ice in 4 years time.
In reality from 2013-2016 the melt did not continue to accelerate. Thank heavens.
In 2017 however the current figures suggest the 2012 record will be broken. The trend is one way.
Check out the graphs where each years ice melt is recorded.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

basilio said:

What part of reality are you denying now Cynic? The Arctic is melting at a rapid, exponential rate. The climate is already changing as a direct result of this situation. Are you saying it isn't ? Or are you saying because it is not going as fast as some researchers thought it might it doesn't matter ?

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An expert predicted that the arctic ice certainly wouldn't last beyond September 2016.

This was reported in a Guardian news article back in 2012.

A link to the article was posted by your good self.

So for all the above reasons, the prediction simply had to be true!

It is now May 2017.

May 2017 is later than September 2016.

Therefore there can no longer be any arctic ice left for us to fret about!!

It's simply a matter of logic. You can either admit to being wrong in the past, or you can admit to being wrong in the present!

Either way you are fallible!

Boldly claiming otherwise, in the face of the factual evidence to the contrary, is denial of the reality of this situation!

Why should I bother believing anything you now have to say about the plight of arctic ice, especially since you've clearly been heeding the advice of the wrong people and publications ?

cynic said:

An expert predicted that the arctic ice certainly wouldn't last beyond September 2016.

This was reported in a Guardian news article back in 2012.

A link to the article was posted by your good self.

So for all the above reasons, the prediction simply had to be true!

It is now May 2017.

May 2017 is later than September 2016.

Therefore there can no longer be any arctic ice left for us to fret about!!

It's simply a matter of logic. You can either admit to being wrong in the past, or you can admit to being wrong in the present!

Either way you are fallible!

Boldly claiming otherwise, in the face of the factual evidence to the contrary, is denial of the reality of this situation!

Why should I bother believing anything you now have to say about the plight of arctic ice, especially since you've clearly been heeding the advice of the wrong people and publications ?

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It's making pretty darn good progress.

Ships can now cruise through the Arctic during the northern summer. Oil companies are salivating at the prospects of all that gas and oil they can now get to a whole lot easier than previous decades.

noco said:

Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. Last day shown: 30 April 2017. (Graph courtesy climate4you.com)


Cosmic rays
One of the consequences of extended periods of low solar activity is that it can result in an increase in cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Simply put, as sunspot numbers decline, cosmic rays intensify. Galactic cosmic rays are high-energy particles originating from space that impact the Earth’s atmosphere. Most of the incoming cosmic ray particles are protons and they actually arrive as individual particles – not in the form of a ray as the term “ray” would suggest. Usually, cosmic rays are held at bay by the sun’s magnetic field, which envelops and protects all the planets in the solar system. But the sun’s magnetic shield is weakening as the current solar cycle heads towards the next solar minimum and this allows more cosmic rays to reach the Earth’s atmosphere.

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You still miss the point by a mile. The cosmic rays are not leading to warming, as per the sentence I took from your article, they are ACTUALLY CAUSING A COOLING of the upper stratosphere. Time for you to put your feet up and retire Dear Ole Pal.

luutzu said:

It's making pretty darn good progress.

Ships can now cruise through the Arctic during the northern summer. Oil companies are salivating at the prospects of all that gas and oil they can now get to a whole lot easier than previous decades.

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Just another failed prediction to add to the pile which so convincingly and definitively proves that expert alarmists have been telling porkies!

explod said:

You still miss the point by a mile. The cosmic rays are not leading to warming, as per the sentence I took from your article, they are ACTUALLY CAUSING A COOLING of the upper stratosphere. Time for you to put your feet up and retire Dear Ole Pal.

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You know Plod, you are all over the place with this AGW crap......One day you are saying the temperature is rising and Global warming is caused by man made green house gases and now you are agreeing with me that the Earth is actually cooling......Just can't make you out......Think you are the one that should be retiring from this AGW crap and get some perspective into your life.

There was an article from Jenny Woodward on 7.00pm ABC news last night. She visited Isobel Kirk. owner of Rockley Station.

Isobel meticulously takes rainfall and other measurements and has done of over 50 years, carrying on her father's work started in the 1930's.

The annual rainfall is pretty much spot the same on for all those years, of course with the expected apparitions and anomalies.

noco said:

You know Plod, you are all over the place with this AGW crap......One day you are saying the temperature is rising and Global warming is caused by man made green house gases and now you are agreeing with me that the Earth is actually cooling......Just can't make you out......Think you are the one that should be retiring from this AGW crap and get some perspective into your life.

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The cosmic rays are having a cooling effect but in spite of that the co2 output is still warming the earth at an increasing rate.

I am not agreeing with anything on this point, just trying to point out that your reference is counter to what you think it is.

cynic said:

Really?!!

Over 4 years ago, we were assured by an expert that the arctic ice would be all gone by now!

So how could it possibly still be melting if it's already gone?!!
:

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Ahem, the IPCC stated mostly gone by 2050 in summer. I have always concurred with that. Still 33 years away. Read back the posts. You just make stuff up in your head.

Still some experts are saying it won't last that long and the IPCC is being too conservative due to not considering other factors such as wave action.

From Wikipedia (with sources)

Observation with satellites show that Arctic sea ice area, extent, and volume have been in decline for a few decades. Sometime during the 21st century, sea ice may effectively cease to exist during the summer. Sea ice extent is defined as the area with at least 15% ice cover.[8] The amount of multi-year sea ice in the Arctic has declined considerably in recent decades. In 1988, ice that was at least 4 years old accounted for 26% of the Arctic's sea ice. By 2013, ice that age was only 7% of all Arctic sea ice.[9]

Scientists recently measured sixteen-foot (five-meter) wave heights during a storm in the Beaufort Sea in mid-August until late October 2012. This is a new phenomenon for the region, since a permanent sea ice cover normally prevents wave formation. Wave action breaks up sea ice, and thus could become a feedback mechanism, driving sea ice decline.[10]

I am personally very cynical believing government and industry based information in front of undeniable facts and trained scientists. I sometimes wish I was like you, the opposite of cynical, so optimistic. So willing to religously believe the lies. But I am cynical by nature.

Knobby22 said:

Ahem, the IPCC stated mostly gone by 2050 in summer. I have always concurred with that. Still 33 years away. Read back the posts. You just make stuff up in your head.

Still some experts are saying it won't last that long and the IPCC is being too conservative due to not considering other factors such as wave action.

From Wikipedia (with sources)

Observation with satellites show that Arctic sea ice area, extent, and volume have been in decline for a few decades. Sometime during the 21st century, sea ice may effectively cease to exist during the summer. Sea ice extent is defined as the area with at least 15% ice cover.[8] The amount of multi-year sea ice in the Arctic has declined considerably in recent decades. In 1988, ice that was at least 4 years old accounted for 26% of the Arctic's sea ice. By 2013, ice that age was only 7% of all Arctic sea ice.[9]

Scientists recently measured sixteen-foot (five-meter) wave heights during a storm in the Beaufort Sea in mid-August until late October 2012. This is a new phenomenon for the region, since a permanent sea ice cover normally prevents wave formation. Wave action breaks up sea ice, and thus could become a feedback mechanism, driving sea ice decline.[10]

I am personally very cynical believing government and industry based information in front of undeniable facts and trained scientists. I wish I was like you, the opposite of cynical, so optimistic.

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It does seem the sheet ice cover is disappearing fast. Is there any figures of % loss of total ice (includes all that under sea level?