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Resisting Climate Hysteria

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This is interesting.

The world's storm tracks are shifting polewards and clouds are rising higher in the atmosphere, two trends that are likely to exacerbate global warming, US scientists say.

New analysis of satellite data for the 1982-2009 period by California's Scripps Institution of Oceanography has resolved what the researchers say is one of the biggest uncertainties involving climate science.

http://www.theage.com.au/environmen...climate-issue-cleared-up-20160706-gq085t.html
 
Many of us have been saying for some time that warmer air rises.

The north pole last winter recorded around zero degrees at times when historically it used to be 40 below. The science is starting to catch up with what can be reasoned.

The problem I feel and can see is when the science really confirms it all it will be far too late.

An article outlining the above in today's Age.
 
explod said:
Many of us have been saying for some time that warmer air rises.

The north pole last winter recorded around zero degrees at times when historically it used to be 40 below. The science is starting to catch up with what can be reasoned.

The problem I feel and can see is when the science really confirms it all it will be far too late.

An article outlining the above in today's Age.
Click to expand...

Too late for what???
 
explod said:
Could not be bothered, you just do not (or refuse to) get it.
Click to expand...

Sorry buddy.....you don't have the answers.

I am still waiting for your answer on what I am supposed to discuss with the farmers.

The farmers are in for a wet spring from the Dipole influence from the Indian Ocean.

It's got to be caused by Man made Global Warming no doubt.

We have just gotta stop burning that nasty coal.

The mangroves are dying in the gulf of Carpentaria.

The Great Barrier Reef is but gone.

There will be no more rains to fill the dams around Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.

The Polar bears are dying up in the Arctic.

But you know what?....The Sun will still rise from the East in the morning and we will all be saved. :D:D

Laughter makes the world go around...Ya just gotta see the funny side of things.
 
explod said:
Many of us have been saying for some time that warmer air rises.

The north pole last winter recorded around zero degrees at times when historically it used to be 40 below. The science is starting to catch up with what can be reasoned.

The problem I feel and can see is when the science really confirms it all it will be far too late.

An article outlining the above in today's Age.
Click to expand...

What if the Earth has changed its axis, wouldn't that make the North Pole warmer?
 
noco said:
Too late for what???
Click to expand...

Too late to do anything about it beside running for our lives.

Kinda like a crack in the dam. A few cracks and the dam would be fine... should need a close look and maybe additional structural fixes or something. But if the cracks get big enough and the dam thing goes, there's no way of stopping it.

Or bush fires. We can do some back burning and other mitigation. But if we let it pile up and lightning strike.

The impact of global warming is already being felt, somewhat permanently, in some places. Bangladesh has lost a lot of its fertile farmland and suffer annual flooding on scale that used to be a once in a hundred year event.

The rising sea salts its rice paddies and the hotter than usual climate mean more water from the glaciers. Flooding then killing the soil. So farmers lose everything they have, then have nothing left to rebuild.

Then in neighbouring India there isn't enough water so they're daming and diverting rivers to other parts of their country. Taking water from Bangladesh - which you'd think is a good thing but it just mean more land are salted as the sea rises further in.

You know how the world can still manage without oil but it still goes to war for it? Watch how many countries will be taken over for their water.
 
explod said:
Many of us have been saying for some time that warmer air rises.

The north pole last winter recorded around zero degrees at times when historically it used to be 40 below. The science is starting to catch up with what can be reasoned.

The problem I feel and can see is when the science really confirms it all it will be far too late.

An article outlining the above in today's Age.
Click to expand...

I haven't read The Age article so I don't know the detail. However, I am a bit confused with the relationship between warm air rising and the North Pole. Although we say UP North and DOWN South, neither pole is up or down in regards to what we mean by warm air rising. Warm air rises vertically up from whatever point on the earth we are referencing. In other words on an axis more or less extending from the earth's core out into space. Movement towards the North pole is not up in that sense, but a lateral movement perpendicular to up.

Lateral air currents are caused by the Coriolis Effect due to the Earth's spin.
 
luutzu said:
Too late to do anything about it beside running for our lives.

Kinda like a crack in the dam. A few cracks and the dam would be fine... should need a close look and maybe additional structural fixes or something. But if the cracks get big enough and the dam thing goes, there's no way of stopping it.

Or bush fires. We can do some back burning and other mitigation. But if we let it pile up and lightning strike.

The impact of global warming is already being felt, somewhat permanently, in some places. Bangladesh has lost a lot of its fertile farmland and suffer annual flooding on scale that used to be a once in a hundred year event.

The rising sea salts its rice paddies and the hotter than usual climate mean more water from the glaciers. Flooding then killing the soil. So farmers lose everything they have, then have nothing left to rebuild.

Then in neighbouring India there isn't enough water so they're daming and diverting rivers to other parts of their country. Taking water from Bangladesh - which you'd think is a good thing but it just mean more land are salted as the sea rises further in.

You know how the world can still manage without oil but it still goes to war for it? Watch how many countries will be taken over for their water.
Click to expand...

I think we should change this thread to HYSTERICAL because that is what a lot of people are becoming.

Flannery said the sea would rise to the height of 8 story buildings....What do you think of his prediction.

Australia has experienced similar weather conditions over the years and then we bounce back......Australia is expecting good spring rains due to the Dipole influence from the Indian Ocean and it will be felt from the west through to the east.

So don't panic my friend, the Sun will rise again tomorrow just as it has done this morning.....We should worship the Sun before any other...If the Sun don't shine we are all domed.
 
luutzu said:
Too late to do anything about it beside running for our lives.

Kinda like a crack in the dam. A few cracks and the dam would be fine... should need a close look and maybe additional structural fixes or something. But if the cracks get big enough and the dam thing goes, there's no way of stopping it.

Or bush fires. We can do some back burning and other mitigation. But if we let it pile up and lightning strike.

The impact of global warming is already being felt, somewhat permanently, in some places. Bangladesh has lost a lot of its fertile farmland and suffer annual flooding on scale that used to be a once in a hundred year event.

The rising sea salts its rice paddies and the hotter than usual climate mean more water from the glaciers. Flooding then killing the soil. So farmers lose everything they have, then have nothing left to rebuild.

Then in neighbouring India there isn't enough water so they're daming and diverting rivers to other parts of their country. Taking water from Bangladesh - which you'd think is a good thing but it just mean more land are salted as the sea rises further in.

You know how the world can still manage without oil but it still goes to war for it? Watch how many countries will be taken over for their water.
Click to expand...

The Cracks in the dam wall is a very apt analogy Luutzu. One can see the problem developing and unless it is addressed the results will be inevitable and catastrophic. One of the more troubling possibilities is that the problem becomes unfixable and the only alternative is evacuating everything down stream before the dam breaks.

But that course of action always has its' detractors. It represents a complete loss of all that has been built. Very hard to face that possibility.

At some stage soon the reality of rising sea levels fuelled by melting ice and expanding oceans will threaten all the coastal communities. Miami and Florida for example are already in trouble. It's too late to reverse sea level rises already set in motion. We can only slow them down if we work very hard. But how do you move a whole metropolis ?

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/the-siege-of-miami
 
bellenuit said:
I haven't read The Age article so I don't know the detail. However, I am a bit confused with the relationship between warm air rising and the North Pole. Although we say UP North and DOWN South, neither pole is up or down in regards to what we mean by warm air rising. Warm air rises vertically up from whatever point on the earth we are referencing. In other words on an axis more or less extending from the earth's core out into space. Movement towards the North pole is not up in that sense, but a lateral movement perpendicular to up.

Lateral air currents are caused by the Coriolis Effect due to the Earth's spin.
Click to expand...

Correct Bellenuit.

The study shows that the clouds are higher in the atmosphere and storms are generally tracking closer to the poles than they were e.g. like the New York storm, it's more of a widening of the tropical belt. This changes the places where it rains creating winners and losers.

The North Pole warming is more to do with other factors (that may be related) but are not part of the findings.
 
Knobby22 said:
Correct Bellenuit.

The study shows that the clouds are higher in the atmosphere and storms are generally tracking closer to the poles than they were e.g. like the New York storm, it's more of a widening of the tropical belt. This changes the places where it rains creating winners and losers.

The North Pole warming is more to do with other factors (that may be related) but are not part of the findings.
Click to expand...

Once again, a lack of critical thinking.

Data, tortured into submission.

DYOR
 
You know, I am so happy not to be you alarmist klaxons (although, once upon a time, I was).

What a way to live life, data mining to find the most pessimistic view of the future, having a hand in depression and suicide of our youth (just spent a weekend with mum and dad of the girl who topped herself).

None of us can be pollyannas if our eyes are open, but ffs, you guys.... Just WTF?
 
"...data mining to find the most pessimistic view of the future,"

It would be great if we weren't seeing repeated record temperatures set around the world. I'm sure Miami and Florida would like to ignore the rising sea levels that will wash away the city in the near future. (In fact they are trying to do that at the moment. It's not rising sea levels it's "nuisance flooding.")

But how long can that work ? Is there a more constructive way to deal with an issue instead of resolutely ignoring it, accepting it as inevitable or just saying there isn't a problem ?

I can remember back in the 60's when the national road toll just kept on climbing. Every weekend 6-8-10-16 people would die on the roads and scores more seriously injured. It seemed as if the increasing road death was the inevitable price of progress. Road deaths were the biggest killer of people under 25. Three of my friends died in separate accidents. The argument was; more cars, more roads, more accidents, more deaths. It was seen as obvious and inescapable.

But even as that was happening it was also clear that drunken driving was a major cause of accidents. Unrestrained people thrown throw windscreens and out of cars increase deaths and injuries dramatically. Badly designed and badly lit roads were also factors.

It took a huge public effort to challenge the "inevitability" of more accidents and deaths and demand action on a number of fronts. And remember these actions were often strongly criticised by sectional interests.

1) Compulsory installation and wearing of seatbelts
2) Introduction of new regulations on car construction to protect passengers . Safety cells, crumple zones, soft interiors
3) Introduction of .05 drink driving laws and random breath testing
4) Maximum speed limits on roads. (these didn't come in until mid 60's)
5) Systematic improvements in roads to eliminate black spots

Forty years later the road toll is 25% of the peaks of the 60's. If we had simply accepted the progress is inevitable scenario we would have at least 4000 road deaths a year in Victoria - versus our current 260 a year .

Drunk drivers would still be racing around on bad roads in dangerous cars killing themselves, their friends and hundreds of other unsuspecting people.

Black spots would still claim a parade of victims.

People would still be speared on steering columns in 30k crashes

We can look at reality, recognise problems and tackle them as best we can. That's real progress.


http://www.appliedeconomics.com.au/pubs/reports/health/ph06.htm
6. Road Safety Programs and Road Trauma

road-toll-graph_v4_march2012_hq.jpg
 
wayneL said:
You know, I am so happy not to be you alarmist klaxons (although, once upon a time, I was).

What a way to live life, data mining to find the most pessimistic view of the future, having a hand in depression and suicide of our youth (just spent a weekend with mum and dad of the girl who topped herself).

None of us can be pollyannas if our eyes are open, but ffs, you guys.... Just WTF?
Click to expand...

Come on Sifu... it's not depressing to face facts. Well... alright it can be depressing. But if we face the facts and do something about it, it's both a great motivator as well as a great inspiration to the kids.

I don't think we can blame the climate "alarmist" on depressing the youth. They're trying to warn us, with science and stuff, that we're heading into disaster - so do something, things like looking into alternative sources of energy etc.

How could people who warn of the problems and suggest the solutions be at fault?

It'd be depressing to hear leaders who believe in CC, talk a great talk and then either do nothing or step on the accellerator. Now that's both suicidal for the charge and depressingly suicidal for young people in need of some inspiration.
 
basilio said:
"...data mining to find the most pessimistic view of the future,"

It would be great if we weren't seeing repeated record temperatures set around the world. I'm sure Miami and Florida would like to ignore the rising sea levels that will wash away the city in the near future. (In fact they are trying to do that at the moment. It's not rising sea levels it's "nuisance flooding.")

But how long can that work ? Is there a more constructive way to deal with an issue instead of resolutely ignoring it, accepting it as inevitable or just saying there isn't a problem ?

I can remember back in the 60's when the national road toll just kept on climbing. Every weekend 6-8-10-16 people would die on the roads and scores more seriously injured. It seemed as if the increasing road death was the inevitable price of progress. Road deaths were the biggest killer of people under 25. Three of my friends died in separate accidents. The argument was; more cars, more roads, more accidents, more deaths. It was seen as obvious and inescapable.

But even as that was happening it was also clear that drunken driving was a major cause of accidents. Unrestrained people thrown throw windscreens and out of cars increase deaths and injuries dramatically. Badly designed and badly lit roads were also factors.

It took a huge public effort to challenge the "inevitability" of more accidents and deaths and demand action on a number of fronts. And remember these actions were often strongly criticised by sectional interests.

1) Compulsory installation and wearing of seatbelts
2) Introduction of new regulations on car construction to protect passengers . Safety cells, crumple zones, soft interiors
3) Introduction of .05 drink driving laws and random breath testing
4) Maximum speed limits on roads. (these didn't come in until mid 60's)
5) Systematic improvements in roads to eliminate black spots

Forty years later the road toll is 25% of the peaks of the 60's. If we had simply accepted the progress is inevitable scenario we would have at least 4000 road deaths a year in Victoria - versus our current 260 a year .

Drunk drivers would still be racing around on bad roads in dangerous cars killing themselves, their friends and hundreds of other unsuspecting people.

Black spots would still claim a parade of victims.

People would still be speared on steering columns in 30k crashes

We can look at reality, recognise problems and tackle them as best we can. That's real progress.


http://www.appliedeconomics.com.au/pubs/reports/health/ph06.htm
6. Road Safety Programs and Road Trauma

View attachment 67428
Click to expand...

Now that's inspiring.
 
basilio said:
The Cracks in the dam wall is a very apt analogy Luutzu. One can see the problem developing and unless it is addressed the results will be inevitable and catastrophic. One of the more troubling possibilities is that the problem becomes unfixable and the only alternative is evacuating everything down stream before the dam breaks.
Click to expand...

It's also a good analogy in that fixing the problem early is a lot cheaper and less disruptive than leaving it.

Design the dam properly. Review the design if it's decades old and you're unsure about the original design's suitability in view of modern knowledge.

Monitor performance once built (and that most certainly is done by the way). Is it moving (yes dams can move)? Is it leaking (dams generally do leak to some extent)? Etc? Does anything suggest there's a problem?

If a problem is found then determined if it's serious or not. What happens if nothing is done? If something bad happens, how long will that take for that to occur? Does it need fixing or is it just a case of a bit more leakage than was expected but it's structurally sound and expected to remain so and no corrective action is required? Is the incentive to undertake works to improve safety or is it purely economic?

If it needs fixing then assess the options for fixing it. Pick the best combination of practicality, cost, time and impact on other things.

Go about fixing it.

So you end up having to spend a few $ now to investigate and if necessary fix the dam. That's an order of magnitude cheaper than doing nothing, having the dam fail, and then having (1) to completely re-build the dam from scratch and (2) you've damaged however many other dams, roads, towns, bridges, farms, rail lines and the natural environment downstream plus putting however many people in danger when the wall of water came down the river.

Knowing what's going on and taking any necessary action to avoid a disaster is a heck of a lot cheaper in the long term than not knowing there's a problem or choosing to ignore it until disaster occurs. That concept has a lot of similarity with the climate debate. However much it costs to avoid any problem, that's almost certainly going to be cheaper than dealing with the consequences of simply letting it happen.

Somewhat off-topic but here's how you strengthen an actual dam. Underlying reason - the original design was reviewed in light of modern knowledge and there were uncertainties that couldn't be proven one way or the other. Only sensible option was thus to assume the worst and take action on that basis. : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSEeH9d3B-E
 

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